Poll

How close to the center of the barge will the first stage land?

Failed landing burn, aborted, or other mishap
6 (1.3%)
Landing on water surface at any point from barge
8 (1.8%)
Landing partially or wholly on barge but partial or complete vehicle loss
66 (14.8%)
Landing partially or wholly on barge but not on center, vehicle intact
209 (47%)
Landings on the center of the barge (center of stage inside center circle)
156 (35.1%)

Total Members Voted: 445


Author Topic: Predict accuracy of upcoming DSCOVR Mission attempted barge landing  (Read 23511 times)

Offline robertross

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I figured I'd start the second poll.

I hope my suggestions meet with everyone's approval.

I'm picking option 3
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Offline nadreck

Interesting the vast majority expect this to be successful!

It is all well and good to quote those things that made it past your confirmation bias that other people wrote, but this is a discussion board damnit! Let us know what you think! And why!

Offline mtakala24

I think they will have more surprises still, but manage to hit the center.

Offline docmordrid

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On the barge intact, probably offcenter (but hoping for a bulls-eye!)
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Offline The Amazing Catstronaut

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Picked three FIVE, nearly exactly the same response as I posted CRS-5 (pesky hydraulic fluid  ::) ). Hopefully this time I'm on the money.

Edit: I realised I'd had three written up there for Dieu knows how long... Doh!
« Last Edit: 01/17/2015 10:37 PM by The Amazing Catstronaut »
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Offline butters

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I think they have all the data they need to land on TOP of the barge next time. The question is how close they can get to ideal touchdown velocity and what their safety margins are on the legs. I wouldn't be shocked if they damage a leg or two on an otherwise on-target landing. Hopefully not enough damage that the vehicle collapses or tips over.

Offline llanitedave

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I'm fairly confident they'll get it right this time.  I voted three, but I think it will be close enough.  When they start sticking it in the bullseye every time, the FAA will have no excuse not to let them fly back to land.

*edit:  Actually I voted 4, with the majority.  I don't count well.
« Last Edit: 01/14/2015 08:03 PM by llanitedave »
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Offline meekGee

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I'm going for center, for the same reason as last time - unless there's a malfunction, we already know how well GH landed.
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Offline tyrred

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I voted landing on ASDS but not bullseye... Cautious optimism ::) They seem to have worked out nearly all the kinks, yet there is always the shadow of Heisenberg.

Offline Mongo62

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I voted for center. We know that the stage can get to the ASDS even with the grid-fin hydraulic failure, so absent another mechanical failure, I see no reason why the stage should not stick a dead-center landing.

Offline deruch

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I voted landing on ASDS but not bullseye... Cautious optimism ::) They seem to have worked out nearly all the kinks, yet there is always the shadow of Heisenberg.

Elon is the one who knocks.   ;D
 
My vote: Off center intact.
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Offline rcoppola

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Intact but off center.
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Offline ClaytonBirchenough

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I voted bullseye. They'll get it this time!
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Offline DanielW

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I am going for sticks it in the center this time. They exceeded my expectations last time. No reason why if they are still in control at touch down that it shouldn't be in the middle.

Offline wannamoonbase

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I'm fairly confident they'll get it right this time.  I voted three, but I think it will be close enough.  When they start sticking it in the bullseye every time, the FAA will have no excuse not to let them fly back to land.

Except they have to fly 200 more miles back to CCAFS.  Seems reasonable to me that they move the ASDS closer to CCAFS with each launch as there data gets better.  But can always go back to being further off shore for more fuel intense launches or FH center cores.

Edit: I don't think they'll nail it in the center, but I think at least foot pad is inside the circle.
« Last Edit: 01/14/2015 03:25 PM by wannamoonbase »
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Offline Kabloona

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Intact but off center.

And let's each send Elon a quart of hydraulic fluid, shipped straight to LC-40.
« Last Edit: 01/14/2015 02:49 AM by Kabloona »

Offline coypu76

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I think they'll stick the landing - it won't be perfectly in the center but it won't be far off.  Call me an optimist, but Elon said in his interview today they would have landed CRS-5 but for the hydraulic fluid exhaustion - and that was in pitch darkness and fog.
Would like to see another poll question:  When will we see the first footage of a F9 first stage landing on the ASDS?

Online dorkmo

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im surprised people arent voting center?! was so close and they already know what they need to fix.

Offline darkenfast

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Bulls-eye!

Offline JoostNL

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After Elon's comments I am going for bulls eye perfect landing.

Also my first ever post after years of lurking, L2 is awesome and please be gentle!  8)

Offline cscott

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Would like to see another poll question:  When will we see the first footage of a F9 first stage landing on the ASDS?
You mean CRS-5 footage?  Or *intact* landing?

Offline Kabloona

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Would like to see another poll question:  When will we see the first footage of a F9 first stage landing on the ASDS?
You mean CRS-5 footage?  Or *intact* landing?

When will we see video? The day after the DSCOVR stage sticks its barge landing.

Offline CraigLieb

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voted for 'partially or wholly on the barge, vehicle intact".. not sure how partially on the barge is compatible with vehicle intact, but hey... I like it anyways. Life is a contradiction.
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Offline mme

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Would like to see another poll question:  When will we see the first footage of a F9 first stage landing on the ASDS?
According to Hans at the CRS-5 pre-launch presser, if the landing was successful video would be released in a day ... or two.  I imagine the same will hold true for DSCOVR.
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Offline ericspittle

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Would like to see another poll question:  When will we see the first footage of a F9 first stage landing on the ASDS?
You mean CRS-5 footage?  Or *intact* landing?

When will we see video? The day after the DSCOVR stage sticks its barge landing.
I'm suspecting that this is the answer. SpaceX got nailed in the press for what many outlets called a failure even though the orbital insertion was successful, the docking was successful, and the end result of the landing attempt was the exact same thing that happens to every other first stage. If I were them I wouldn't release footage of the first ASDS attempt either, no matter how much we would all love to know what happened, because of how moronic the average press coverage is. I suspect that the same press will happily laud them for a successful landing though, and then we'll see as many angles as we want.

I do hope that after a bunch of successes they might get brave and show the footage from the CRS-5 landing attempt, by then there won't be much for the press to say.

Offline cscott

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Would like to see another poll question:  When will we see the first footage of a F9 first stage landing on the ASDS?
You mean CRS-5 footage?  Or *intact* landing?

When will we see video? The day after the DSCOVR stage sticks its barge landing.

I'll take that bet.  I think we'll see footage of the CRS-5 attempt, and it will be released before DSCOVR launches.

I'm not guaranteeing that the CRS-5 footage will include the earth-shattering kaboom.  But I bet descent footage will be released and -- to make the wager interesting -- I'll say that we see at least a glimpse of the ASDS before the clip ends.  (This last part is really iffy, considering darkness and fog and possible loss-of-control, but @coypu76 did say "landing on the ASDS", so I can't claim I'm right unless we actually see some ASDS.)

Online foltster

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Elon now up to 60% chance of landing on the ship this time.  About 9:30 or so. 

Offline Kabloona

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@coypu76 did say "landing on the ASDS", so I can't claim I'm right unless we actually see some ASDS.)

Is it a landing video if the video doesn't actually show a landing?  ???

Offline Mongo62

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Elon now up to 60% chance of landing on the ship this time.  About 9:30 or so.

From my post on the Open hydraulic schemes thread:

Elon elaborated on the grid fin issue at a recent Q & A, where he states that SpaceX needs "to make sure our hydraulic actuators don't run out of fluid and go hard over".

Offline Carreidas 160

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I think they'll crash again this time, only better :) At least, that will be the most likely outcome. So 3rd option for me!

Offline macpacheco

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I'm taking option 3 since that would be awesome enough. A bull eye landing would be just extra gravy, leave that buzz for the follow on barge landings. BTW, I'm betting the FAA will demand another 3 landings (DSCOVR + two).
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Offline cscott

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@coypu76 did say "landing on the ASDS", so I can't claim I'm right unless we actually see some ASDS.)

Is it a landing video if the video doesn't actually show a landing?  ???

Landing *process*. ;)

Offline Herb Schaltegger

I voted for the third option - partially or wholly on the barge, but with some damage. I expect the unexpected for the first several attempts - one leg over the edge, causing a topple, or offset onto the equipment containers ... something.

But I'd like to be proven incorrect.
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Offline PahTo

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Option 3 due to the fact they flew back to the platform last time, and have (apparently) ID'd why they didn't land intact and are making changes.

Offline llanitedave

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It's interesting how closely the graph of the poll corresponds to the pattern of choices in the Barge Bingo thread!
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Offline Llian Rhydderch

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I'll say inside the circle.

They've already successfully demonstrated all the high-altitude controlled-descent stuff, and the mid-altitude controllability to GNC to the "barge box".  Grasshopper/F9R-Dev1 have demonstrated the low-altitude precision landing capability.

I'm speculating that ocean swell, barge thruster vernier control and potential fog and rain, won't overcome the SpaceX control algorithms and control authority to remain in the circle.
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Offline Vultur

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I voted for center. We know that the stage can get to the ASDS even with the grid-fin hydraulic failure, so absent another mechanical failure, I see no reason why the stage should not stick a dead-center landing.

I voted center for the same reasons (here's hoping!)

Offline the_other_Doug

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I voted for landing intact but not dead center.  I'd love to be proven wrong, though.
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Offline CuddlyRocket

Also my first ever post after years of lurking, L2 is awesome and please be gentle!  8)
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Offline francesco nicoli

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Voted 3: too much unknown unknowns and few known unknowns still. Third time will be the good one.

Offline SoulWager

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My guesses:
15% hits center of barge and is destroyed.
15% doesn't hit center of barge and is destroyed.
60% hits center of barge and survives.
10% doesn't hit center of barge and survives.

Offline Robert Thompson

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Not center, intact. The triage on CRS5 seemed assured.

Offline wes_wilson

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Had to go with land in center. 

My choice of "Land in center, re-launch two weeks later on inflight Dragon V2 abort test" wasn't listed...  :-\
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Offline robertross

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Had to go with land in center. 

My choice of "Land in center, re-launch two weeks later on inflight Dragon V2 abort test" wasn't listed...  :-\

There were only so many number of options/questions available for the poll
That's the best range I could think of at the time
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Offline Lar

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Actually you can add options. I've made some doozies, with 20 options or more. That's not to say that it's necessarily a good idea to have a lot of options.
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Offline john smith 19

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I went with 3, which is a down grade from the last poll.

If you play by the rules of Baysian statistics then the odds worsen for a failed attempt.  :(

Normal statistics would say it's still 50/50.

Personally I'd like to think they have learned sufficient about oil usage and other issues to bring it down safely.

But I thought that on their first attempt as well.  :(

So the question is have they found all the "unknown unknowns"  this time ?
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Offline mvpel

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I went with 3, which is a down grade from the last poll.

If you play by the rules of Baysian statistics then the odds worsen for a failed attempt.  :(

The trouble with that approach is the occurrence of a failed attempt only gives evidence about the true state of the world at the moment of that failure, and doesn't account for things like, say, adding 50% more hydraulic fluid on the next attempt. In the real world, with clever engineers, the odds improve after a failed attempt. See FTG-06b, for another example.
« Last Edit: 01/17/2015 01:37 PM by mvpel »
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Offline pagheca

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I don't vote on this kind of polls, usually, for personal "statistical" and undisclosable reasons :).

However, let me note that if that Falcon 9 ACS - not taking in account all due differences, of course - was mounted on an ICBM in the future it would be an improvement!
« Last Edit: 01/17/2015 01:48 PM by pagheca »

Offline Rocket Science

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I went with 3.... If they get it on the island, good enough for me at this point! :)
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Offline Mark K

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If you play by the rules of Baysian statistics then the odds worsen for a failed attempt.  :(

Normal statistics would say it's still 50/50.


Ahh... no: Bayes reasoning does not say that. If you are looking at THE SAME probability distribution and you get more information - like a data point on it for failure. then yes, your estimates going forward of what that distribution looks like will change, maybe with a greater failure possibility, maybe not, depending on the prior model. In this case you are looking at a new probability distribution which we know is different -  more fluid, different trajectory, higher starting point, etc., so your estimate will have to add all that in to get your new estimated outcome model. That will be your new "prior". It may very well have a lower possibility of success, but it won't just be because of the previous failure, since a lot more stuff is changing, and you know it is, in the sense that you should be incorporating it into your prior probability model for the new launch.

Pedantic mode off. I do this because I see it this for all kinds of predictive statistics and these  ideas can really lead to funny decision making.



Offline cro-magnon gramps

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I voted #1... because this stage is going into new territory... higher and faster at time of turn around... it just seems to me that the unknowable unknowns increase dramatically, and after the CRS-5 landing attempt, I'm not so positive as I was... I was stuck between #1 and #2, and went the way I did based on Elon's comment that this is trickier... I don't think they will have the same problems as last time, but I am suspicious they will find new reasons for the stage to do a RUD... not that I want it, I would prefer a repeat or better of CRS-5... maybe I would change my mind if it were after 8 pm and the bottle was open :D

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Offline Alkan

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I picked 5. You have to be optimistic. If a malfunction happens, it's bad luck. If it works, I think it's going to be pretty much on target based on how close the last one was after the grid fins ran out of hydraulic fluid. So, I just picked an option under the assumption "it works." And, based on the accuracy of their previous predictions and tendency to under-promise and over-deliver, I think it'll work.

But I'm going to bet that it will be delayed by at least a few days and we won't see it until February.

Offline intrepidpursuit

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I picked 5 because I'm optimistic. Even with the grid fins working against them they looked to be close to dead on with their 45 degree rocket.

A close second to me is 1, because I think there is a high likelihood that they have miscalculated or measured something related to their incredible T>W, 0 speed, 0 altitude final maneuver which has still never really been tried.

The others are distant runners up. SpaceX doesn't seem to do anything halfway. It will either get there or something will go wrong.

Offline AncientU

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If you play by the rules of Baysian statistics then the odds worsen for a failed attempt.  :(

Normal statistics would say it's still 50/50.


Ahh... no: Bayes reasoning does not say that. If you are looking at THE SAME probability distribution and you get more information - like a data point on it for failure. then yes, your estimates going forward of what that distribution looks like will change, maybe with a greater failure possibility, maybe not, depending on the prior model. In this case you are looking at a new probability distribution which we know is different -  more fluid, different trajectory, higher starting point, etc., so your estimate will have to add all that in to get your new estimated outcome model. That will be your new "prior". It may very well have a lower possibility of success, but it won't just be because of the previous failure, since a lot more stuff is changing, and you know it is, in the sense that you should be incorporating it into your prior probability model for the new launch.

Pedantic mode off. I do this because I see it this for all kinds of predictive statistics and these  ideas can really lead to funny decision making.

Also must consider potential failure modes... not the least of which during last attempt was returning to the vicinity of the ASDS in a rather large ocean.  Sticking the landing was relatively minor in comparison. 

Combining success on the former with changes to improve odds of the latter should significantly improve the odds on this attempt.
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Offline ericlopaty

Didn't Elon himself say that it should blow up for a different reason?   ;)

Offline Lar

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He was being a weisenheimer... :)
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Offline deruch

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Didn't Elon himself say that it should blow up for a different reason?   ;)

No.  He said that he hoped that if it blew up, it would at least be for a different reason.  ;)

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Offline JamesH

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Also must consider potential failure modes... not the least of which during last attempt was returning to the vicinity of the ASDS in a rather large ocean.  Sticking the landing was relatively minor in comparison. 

I think its the other way round. Getting close to he barge is the 'easy' bit, landing it is the tough bit. They have grid fins and a lot (comparitivly) time to aim and redirect the stage to get it close to the barge. The landing itself is a one off lots of things need to go right at the same time brown trouser moment.

Offline Herb Schaltegger

Didn't Elon himself say that it should blow up for a different reason?   ;)

No.  He said that he hoped that if it blew up, it would at least be for a different reason.  ;)

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Reading - it still IS fundamental. ;)

Quote
Next rocket landing on drone ship in 2 to 3 weeks w way more hydraulic fluid. At least it shd explode for a diff reason.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/556105370054053889
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Offline llanitedave

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Unfortunately, now all the Musk-quote Kremlinologists will be quizzing their crystal balls to come up with reasons for the stage to explode.  If it doesn't explode, Musk risks losing credibility...




"But... it simply HAS to explode!  Elon said it would!"
"I've just abducted an alien -- now what?"

Offline deruch

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Didn't Elon himself say that it should blow up for a different reason?   ;)

No.  He said that he hoped that if it blew up, it would at least be for a different reason.  ;)

P.S.- Welcome to the Forum!

Reading - it still IS fundamental. ;)

Quote
Next rocket landing on drone ship in 2 to 3 weeks w way more hydraulic fluid. At least it shd explode for a diff reason.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/556105370054053889
lol.

That wasn't a quote I saw.  I heard him talking about it in an interview at the Texas Dept. of Transportation @~19m:10s
Quote from: Elon Musk
...we ran out of hydraulic fluid last time. So, I think we may fail the landing again, but hopefully for a different reason.

Shouldn't reality posts be in "Advanced concepts"?  --Nomadd

Offline seeya later navigator

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On the Barge, vehicle intact, I have my cigar ready. 8)
It's the one in a million chance that always happens nine times out of ten.

Offline TOG

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Center of the barge - upright and unharmed... With the Russian headline:
      SpaceX hits barge again, but fails for second time to sink it. 
M's Laws of Aerodynamics:                                    On Physics Exam:
1) if you push anything hard enough it will fly          Q)The allegory of Schrödinger's cat shows what?
2) if you stop pushing it stops flying                        A)That Shrödinger was a sadistic cat hater

Offline sanman

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It'll be dead center, just as intended, because the last attempt gave them a pile of telemetry data to up their game and iron out any further bugs.

Offline CLCalver

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It will land with all legs well inboard, but 10-feet or more off-centre.

Offline Jet Black

It will land on the Barge, a bit off centre. any newspaper or media outlet that uses a name like "Just Testing" or "Now We'll Try it My Way" should win an award. If it doesn't work, there are a load of titles here too:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spacecraft_in_the_Culture_series
For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled. -- Richard Feynman

Offline SVBarnard

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Whens the next landing attempt? Also will the uprating of the merlin allow them to do boostback attempts for GTO missions?

Offline Jarnis

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Whens the next landing attempt? Also will the uprating of the merlin allow them to do boostback attempts for GTO missions?

April. CRS-6.

Two GTO missions before that without legs.

No idea when uprated Merlin-1D will fly - not before April at least.

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