Poll

How close to the center of the barge will the first stage land?

Failed landing burn, aborted, or other mishap
6 (1.3%)
Landing on water surface at any point from barge
8 (1.8%)
Landing partially or wholly on barge but partial or complete vehicle loss
66 (14.8%)
Landing partially or wholly on barge but not on center, vehicle intact
209 (47%)
Landings on the center of the barge (center of stage inside center circle)
156 (35.1%)

Total Members Voted: 445


Author Topic: Predict accuracy of upcoming DSCOVR Mission attempted barge landing  (Read 23740 times)

Offline robertross

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I figured I'd start the second poll.

I hope my suggestions meet with everyone's approval.

I'm picking option 3
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Offline nadreck

Interesting the vast majority expect this to be successful!

It is all well and good to quote those things that made it past your confirmation bias that other people wrote, but this is a discussion board damnit! Let us know what you think! And why!

Offline mtakala24

I think they will have more surprises still, but manage to hit the center.

Online docmordrid

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On the barge intact, probably offcenter (but hoping for a bulls-eye!)
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Offline The Amazing Catstronaut

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Picked three FIVE, nearly exactly the same response as I posted CRS-5 (pesky hydraulic fluid  ::) ). Hopefully this time I'm on the money.

Edit: I realised I'd had three written up there for Dieu knows how long... Doh!
« Last Edit: 01/17/2015 10:37 PM by The Amazing Catstronaut »
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Offline butters

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I think they have all the data they need to land on TOP of the barge next time. The question is how close they can get to ideal touchdown velocity and what their safety margins are on the legs. I wouldn't be shocked if they damage a leg or two on an otherwise on-target landing. Hopefully not enough damage that the vehicle collapses or tips over.

Offline llanitedave

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I'm fairly confident they'll get it right this time.  I voted three, but I think it will be close enough.  When they start sticking it in the bullseye every time, the FAA will have no excuse not to let them fly back to land.

*edit:  Actually I voted 4, with the majority.  I don't count well.
« Last Edit: 01/14/2015 08:03 PM by llanitedave »
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Offline meekGee

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I'm going for center, for the same reason as last time - unless there's a malfunction, we already know how well GH landed.
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Online tyrred

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I voted landing on ASDS but not bullseye... Cautious optimism ::) They seem to have worked out nearly all the kinks, yet there is always the shadow of Heisenberg.

Offline Mongo62

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I voted for center. We know that the stage can get to the ASDS even with the grid-fin hydraulic failure, so absent another mechanical failure, I see no reason why the stage should not stick a dead-center landing.

Offline deruch

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I voted landing on ASDS but not bullseye... Cautious optimism ::) They seem to have worked out nearly all the kinks, yet there is always the shadow of Heisenberg.

Elon is the one who knocks.   ;D
 
My vote: Off center intact.
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Offline rcoppola

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Intact but off center.
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Offline ClaytonBirchenough

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I voted bullseye. They'll get it this time!
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Offline DanielW

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I am going for sticks it in the center this time. They exceeded my expectations last time. No reason why if they are still in control at touch down that it shouldn't be in the middle.

Offline wannamoonbase

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I'm fairly confident they'll get it right this time.  I voted three, but I think it will be close enough.  When they start sticking it in the bullseye every time, the FAA will have no excuse not to let them fly back to land.

Except they have to fly 200 more miles back to CCAFS.  Seems reasonable to me that they move the ASDS closer to CCAFS with each launch as there data gets better.  But can always go back to being further off shore for more fuel intense launches or FH center cores.

Edit: I don't think they'll nail it in the center, but I think at least foot pad is inside the circle.
« Last Edit: 01/14/2015 03:25 PM by wannamoonbase »
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Offline Kabloona

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Intact but off center.

And let's each send Elon a quart of hydraulic fluid, shipped straight to LC-40.
« Last Edit: 01/14/2015 02:49 AM by Kabloona »

Offline coypu76

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I think they'll stick the landing - it won't be perfectly in the center but it won't be far off.  Call me an optimist, but Elon said in his interview today they would have landed CRS-5 but for the hydraulic fluid exhaustion - and that was in pitch darkness and fog.
Would like to see another poll question:  When will we see the first footage of a F9 first stage landing on the ASDS?

Offline dorkmo

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im surprised people arent voting center?! was so close and they already know what they need to fix.

Offline darkenfast

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Bulls-eye!

Offline JoostNL

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After Elon's comments I am going for bulls eye perfect landing.

Also my first ever post after years of lurking, L2 is awesome and please be gentle!  8)

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