Author Topic: SpaceX Falcon 9 : Es’hail-2 : NET Nov 15, 2018 : KSC 39A - DISCUSSION  (Read 28106 times)

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Offline .Scott

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Since they seem to have quite a few requests from the Air Force for unused boosters, I would guess they are saving the those up.  If so, we should expect 1047.2.

But quite interesting that SpaceX is at the stage where they have such a choice among their fleet.
It seems their launch capacity exceeds their current market.  Gone are the days when most rockets had a specific mission before they were built.

Offline smoliarm

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...
It seems their launch capacity exceeds their current market...

SpaceX had a major failure 3 years ago (Sep 1 2016) which put them out of action for ca 5 months and resulted in launch delays. Moreover, at the time of that accident SpaceX already had - significant backlog. As a result, they did stop taking new orders (or at least reduced the number) - until they (a) solve the issues and (b) has clear idea on WHEN they will be done with backlog.
In other words, in that period (fall 2016 - spring 2017) they did not know yet TWO answers:
* how much time it will take to resolve the issues;
* and how much time it will take to zero the backlog.
So they did not take enough launch orders.

Typical lead time between the sat order and launch is about 2 to 3 years, so, AIUI, right now we are seeing this very effect of AMOS 6 pad failure.

So instead of
"their launch capacity exceeds their current market"
one could formulate the current situation as
"SpaceX did finish their backlog faster than they expected in fall 2016."

=============
Here is one more thing about launch rates:
The *AMOS 6 failure* happened when another major commercial launch provider - ILS' Proton - was in crisis, and yet one more - Sea Lunch - went defunct.  So, from the point of view of credit banks the situation was as bad as "three of four major launch providers are out of the game, and it's unclear when (and if) they will be back".
Indeed, if I search launch logs for the last ten years for *commercial* launches to *GTO/GEO*, I see mostly Ariane 5, Proton and Zenit - with Falcon 9 joining the party recently. That's it, all other launch vehicles are rare and comprise together (Atlas V + CS-3B + H-2A) less than 10% of the resulting pool.

No bank wants HIS money (in the form of satellite built on a loan) to sit on the ground in storage waiting for endless delays. Banks better wait them-self - "for clear skies"

IMHO, this is the real reason behind the notorious GEO-satellite orders drought of 2017.
"Money holders" made a choice to wait. :)

Offline Norm38

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Per the updates thread, since I had to look it up, this is core 1047, making its second flight, and the third Block 5 reflight.

Online Orbiter

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Going to assume no static fire today?
Attended space missions: STS-114, STS-124, STS-128, STS-135, Atlas V "Curiosity", Delta IV Heavy NROL-15, Atlas V MUOS-2, Delta IV Heavy NROL-37, Falcon 9 CRS-9, Falcon 9 JCSAT-16, Atlas V GOES-R, Falcon 9 SES-11, Falcon Heavy Demo.

Offline penguin44

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Going to assume no static fire today?
as per update thread, vehicle is vertical and ready for static on Monday.

Online ZachS09

They aborted the 9 AM static fire attempt this morning, but since the window lasts until 3 PM, could they try again soon? Or will the static fire be scrubbed until tomorrow?
« Last Edit: 11/12/2018 01:44 PM by ZachS09 »
Because the Falcon Heavy Test Flight was successful, it has inspired thousands of people to consider changing the future of space travel.

Offline Wolfram66

BALK!  to use a baseball term...

Offline Alexphysics

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They aborted the 9 AM static fire attempt this morning, but since the window lasts until 3 PM, could they try again soon? Or will the static fire be scrubbed until tomorrow?

They have demonstrated recycling capabilities in the past so in terms of having time to recycle the count, they could do that at least two times more based on the Merah Putih Static Fire (2 loading cycles in about 2 and a half hours). Right now it depends on what caused the abort, if they have to go an check it out by themselves, it will probably be delayed until tomorrow. If the abort was caused by a minor thing then they could try again today, it is a 6 hour window...

Online MattBaker

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Window should have closed, did anything happen at the end of it?

If not, when's the next window and does this push back the launch to Friday?

And any word on why they had to abort this morning?

edit: Guess Chris' tweet answers half of this, patience is a virtue.
« Last Edit: 11/12/2018 07:15 PM by MattBaker »

Offline Yeknom-Ecaps

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Is there a mission logo/patch for this mission?

Online IanThePineapple

Is there a mission logo/patch for this mission?

Probably, and it will be revealed after a successful static fire, like all previous patches.

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