SpaceX Falcon 9 : Es’hail-2 : Nov 15, 2018 : KSC 39A - DISCUSSION

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/emrekelly/status/1060557403496894464

[.Scott]

Since they seem to have quite a few requests from the Air Force for unused boosters, I would guess they are saving the those up.  If so, we should expect 1047.2.

But quite interesting that SpaceX is at the stage where they have such a choice among their fleet.
It seems their launch capacity exceeds their current market.  Gone are the days when most rockets had a specific mission before they were built.

[smoliarm]

...
It seems their launch capacity exceeds their current market...

SpaceX had a major failure 3 years ago (Sep 1 2016) which put them out of action for ca 5 months and resulted in launch delays. Moreover, at the time of that accident SpaceX already had - significant backlog. As a result, they did stop taking new orders (or at least reduced the number) - until they (a) solve the issues and (b) has clear idea on WHEN they will be done with backlog.
In other words, in that period (fall 2016 - spring 2017) they did not know yet TWO answers:
* how much time it will take to resolve the issues;
* and how much time it will take to zero the backlog.
So they did not take enough launch orders.

Typical lead time between the sat order and launch is about 2 to 3 years, so, AIUI, right now we are seeing this very effect of AMOS 6 pad failure.

So instead of
"their launch capacity exceeds their current market"
one could formulate the current situation as
"SpaceX did finish their backlog faster than they expected in fall 2016."

=============
Here is one more thing about launch rates:
The *AMOS 6 failure* happened when another major commercial launch provider - ILS' Proton - was in crisis, and yet one more - Sea Lunch - went defunct.  So, from the point of view of credit banks the situation was as bad as "three of four major launch providers are out of the game, and it's unclear when (and if) they will be back".
Indeed, if I search launch logs for the last ten years for *commercial* launches to *GTO/GEO*, I see mostly Ariane 5, Proton and Zenit - with Falcon 9 joining the party recently. That's it, all other launch vehicles are rare and comprise together (Atlas V + CS-3B + H-2A) less than 10% of the resulting pool.

No bank wants HIS money (in the form of satellite built on a loan) to sit on the ground in storage waiting for endless delays. Banks better wait them-self - "for clear skies"

IMHO, this is the real reason behind the notorious GEO-satellite orders drought of 2017.
"Money holders" made a choice to wait.

[Norm38]

Per the updates thread, since I had to look it up, this is core 1047, making its second flight, and the third Block 5 reflight.

[Orbiter]

Going to assume no static fire today?

[penguin44]

Going to assume no static fire today?

as per update thread, vehicle is vertical and ready for static on Monday.

[ZachS09]

They aborted the 9 AM static fire attempt this morning, but since the window lasts until 3 PM, could they try again soon? Or will the static fire be scrubbed until tomorrow?

[Wolfram66]

BALK!  to use a baseball term...

[Alexphysics]

They aborted the 9 AM static fire attempt this morning, but since the window lasts until 3 PM, could they try again soon? Or will the static fire be scrubbed until tomorrow?

They have demonstrated recycling capabilities in the past so in terms of having time to recycle the count, they could do that at least two times more based on the Merah Putih Static Fire (2 loading cycles in about 2 and a half hours). Right now it depends on what caused the abort, if they have to go an check it out by themselves, it will probably be delayed until tomorrow. If the abort was caused by a minor thing then they could try again today, it is a 6 hour window...

[MattBaker]

Window should have closed, did anything happen at the end of it?

If not, when's the next window and does this push back the launch to Friday?

And any word on why they had to abort this morning?

edit: Guess Chris' tweet answers half of this, patience is a virtue.

[Yeknom-Ecaps]

Is there a mission logo/patch for this mission?

[IanThePineapple]

Is there a mission logo/patch for this mission?

Probably, and it will be revealed after a successful static fire, like all previous patches.

[JoerTex]

SpaceX has the Mission WebCast posted.

[dgates]

Anybody seen a weather update?  Latest I’ve seen is L-2 forecast, which had 60% go.....

[Paul_G]

Official SpaceX photo

This photo shows a head on view of the first cladding panel on the tower. Any view on whether there would be an additional 'exterior' surface attached to this, as there are some vertical risers visible on that panel that look like they would be used to attach something onto.

Paul

[JoerTex]

Still 60% with 90% for tomorrow.

You can get weather and other launch info at this link   https://www.patrick.af.mil

45 Space Wing.  It's obvious.

[gongora]

https://twitter.com/eshailsat/status/1063065997693730822

Es'hailSat team heading to launch site

https://twitter.com/eshailsat/status/1063114843077566464

[DaveJes1979]

What?? Did you see the first stage pass some sort of balloon on its way down?

I saw it, too.  It was an object of some sort.

[VoodooForce]

Fairly slow moving and not far from the booster 

[jak Kennedy]

What?? Did you see the first stage pass some sort of balloon on its way down?

I saw it, too.  It was an object of some sort.

Glad it wasn’t just me. It was around the 6 minute mark.