POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2015

[Lar]

Number of SpaceX flights in 2015

Number of SpaceX flights in 2014 poll thread (actual total: 6, 2 Dragons: CRS-3 and CRS-4)
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33571.0

Number of SpaceX flights in 2013 poll thread (actual total: 3, 1 Dragon: CRS-2)
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30684.0

Number of SpaceX flights in 2012 poll thread (actual total: 2, 2 Dragons: C2+ and CRS-1)
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=27858.0

Totals: F9  from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_launches#Launch_history_and_manifest
           Dragon from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dragon_(spacecraft)#List_of_Dragon_missions
Salo's US Flight Schedule
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.0

SpaceX Official Flight Manifest
http://www.spacex.com/launch_manifest.php

Anik's Schedule of ISS flight events
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=61.0

NASA's Consolidated Launch Schedule
http://www.nasa.gov/missions/highlights/schedule.html

Current 2015 SpaceX Flights Scheduled (According to Salo's Thread with modification, and my editorial comments, and I won't update it post 1 Jan)
January 6 -  Dragon SpX-5 (CRS-5) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
January 23 - DSCOVR (Triana) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
February - Eutelsat 115 West B (Satmex 7), ABS 3A - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
March 31 - Jason-3 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
April 8 - Dragon SpX-6 (CRS6) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
June 13 - Dragon SpX-7 (CRS7) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
2nd quarter - Demo Flight - Falcon Heavy - Vandenberg SLC-4E or Canaveral SLC-39A (considered more likely)
August 13 - Dragon SpX-8 (CRS8), BEAM (Bigelow Expandable Activity Module) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
August - AMOS 6 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
August - STP-02: DSX, FORMOSAT 7A/7B/7C/7D/7E/7F, GPIM - Falcon Heavy - SLC-39A (or late 2015)
September - SAOCOM-1A - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
2nd half - Iridium Next Flight 1 (x10) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
2nd half - Iridium Next Flight 2 (x10) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
2nd half - JCSat-14 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
NET fall -Inmarsat 5 F2/F3 (TBD) - Falcon Heavy - SLC-39A (or Proton)
December 5 - Dragon SpX-9 (CRS9) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
4th quarter - Eutelsat 117 West B (Satmex 9), ABS 2A - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
TBD - FORMOSAT 5 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
TBD - SES-9 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40

Poll Rules
- 30 days allowed for voting
- This allows time for those out of town during the holidays
- This also prevents the thread from going on so long to make the poll unfair to early voters.
- With CRS-5 pushed to Jan 2015, everyone gets a freebie launch
- No do-overs, I can't change anyone's vote and it wouldn't be fair anyway
- Please PM me with any questions/comments/concerns.  I've done what I can to make this orderly.
- UTC time is considered for any launches on Dec 31st

Guidelines for "Number of Launches" thread
A "launch" in this case means:
- The liftoff of a launch vehicle from the pad, with a mission that includes the objectives of second stage cutoff and delivering a payload to orbit
- This includes any CRS Dragon missions, Commsats, mass simulators
- Suborbital missions such as Grasshopper and F9R tests DO NOT count.
- Suborbital core returns, should any happen, also DO NOT count.
- Launch abort tests also DO NOT count.
- Any confusion on this, please send me a PM before posting.
- An FH launch is one launch, not three, obviously...

Rationale for "Number of Launches" thread
The original purpose of this thread was to get an intelligent discussion going on the number of launches that would actually take place.  At the beginning of 2012 and 2013, it was pretty unclear how many launches would take place those respective years. This was even true somewhat for 2014... as the 2014 poll makes clear. But collectively we did not do too bad...  SpaceX has aggressive plans for 2015 too.

[Lar]

Poll is attached. I voted 12, which is 2x the 2014 total... They need to ramp up... if they don't ramp up they are not going to make the buckets of cash they need to make to OCCUPY MARS! This is less than the manifest, but I think they can do this if they get some good breaks.

PM ME!!! ... with any errors in the links, data, if I misinterpreted the manifest, etc. NOTE: Please don't send L2 dates, etc, we have to go with what is public.  I will stop updating the manifest on or about 1 Jan, at that point it is what it is, date wise, only typos will get fixed

[Elvis in Space]

I went for 16. Not a lot of science in that. Figure they have to double what they did before and then add a new pad and a new booster to the mix. In my mind that makes 16 sound optimistic but not implausible. Realistically the number could be anywhere from 8 to 27 so who knows?

[chamann]

I voted 12.  They doubled the number of launches compared to last year. So I think they will double them again.  Although I hope they beat that estimate.

[llanitedave]

I voted 12, but part of me fears it's an over-estimate.

[rsnellenberger]

I voted 10 -- should we count Falcon 9H as one launch, or three? 

[cscott]

I voted 10 -- should we count Falcon 9H as one launch, or three? 

Launches, not cores launched.  Simultaneously launching three cores still counts as one launch event (unless one is in Vandenberg, one in Brownsville, and one on the Cape).

[Hauerg]

9 for 2015

For 2014 I thought 9 were a possibility. Multiplied with real life factor = 6

[daver]

I voted 10 while hoping for 20.    This will be a great year for SpaceX and their fans.

[Lar]

I voted 10 -- should we count Falcon 9H as one launch, or three? 

Launches, not cores launched.  Simultaneously launching three cores still counts as one launch event (unless one is in Vandenberg, one in Brownsville, and one on the Cape).

I've clarified that FH is one launch. It's vehicles, not cores.
I also clarified that any suborbital core return flights don't count either.

[chrisking0997]

14.  What can I say...Im an optimist

[averagespacejoe]

I am going to repost my vote for 10 here maybe I need to look at this on my laptop to see the poll.

Edit: I figured it out, I can't see it signed into my mobile (which I use to check this site a lot) I had to login on my laptop.

[foltster]

I voted for 9.  I want to see more than that though!

[topsphere]

I went for 11 and consider that to be an optimistic prediction.

I feel anything over 16 simply won't happen, but that's just my opinion.

Lar, I think it would be a good idea to put the realised figures for the previous years in the opening post, to aid guessing this time around??

Cheers

[mme]

I've gone with an admittedly optimistic 13.  My reasoning (OK, rationalization) is that according to X MARKS THE SPOT: FALCON 9 ATTEMPTS OCEAN PLATFORM LANDING:

Over the next year, SpaceX has at least a dozen launches planned with a number of additional testing opportunities. Given what we know today, we believe it is quite likely that with one of those flights we will not only be able to land a Falcon 9 first stage, but also re-fly.

CRS-5 slipped into 2015 so that's 13.  FH demo and re-flying a first stage adds a potential buffer of 2 more.  (Yes, I actually am delirious with fever.  Not SpaceX fever, actual fever.)

[go4mars]

12

[Lars-J]

My vote is *10*... But this is just a quick gut check vote based on a quick reading of the potential 2015 manifest.

[R7]

8

edit: OK who voted 2?? 

[Lar]

edit: OK who voted 2?? 

Jim?  Prober?  (I kid, I kid... Jim voted 6 last year... on the nose, and Prober already voted 16, he told me!)

The suggestion to update the header with previous launch completion totals is a good one. I will use http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_launches as the source I guess.

Edit: Apparently someone voted "more than 35" after all!

[AncientU]

sweet... 16
I think we are over-estimating our under-estimates.