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@frobnicat: does this experiment (NASA reporting no experimental thrust for TE012 without a dielectric, but reporting thrust force with a dielectric) nullify mechanistic theories such as the one you recently proposed? (or did I miss something that salvages your mechanistic conjecture for this case?)
Of course, electromagnetic artifact explanations that rely on Poynting's vector are still viable, if somebody can come up with such an artifact explanation.
Job taking a revenge, don't have much time to explore the consequences of surprising latest precisions by Paul March. For a purely
thermal mechanistic theory explaining in part or in whole the signal there is now need to integrate a few facts and data points reported, while some of them could be fragile or fluke as there is not much samples for those cases.
From the point of view of purely thermal mechanistic, on a (even very slightly) tilted pendulum, what is to be explained is not "thrust" but "displacement of LDS reading", remembering that they are not equivalent and that sustained recorded displacements would be induced by sustained shift in position of some part wrt fixation to pendulum arm. That is we would have displacement (vertical axis on charts) proportional to some part(s) position(s),
not to first derivative of said position(s) since there is no viscous friction,
nor second derivative of said position(s) since the magnitude of recoil effects are too weak and too short lived to play significant role in sustained readings.
In experimental plots, vertical scale varies as a factor from 1µm to 5µm for same cal pulse of 29.1µN. The cal pulse wrt to the scale (apparent total stiffness) is an indirect indicator for the constant that links CoM shift to LDS displacement readings since it gives tilted pendulum component relative to flexure bearings component (components of rest equilibrium restoring torque). Expect that the more the LDS displaces in µm for the same 29.1µN (real force), the less the tilted pendulum component, ie. the less the system reacts to CoM's shift.
Few surprising facts and data points for this set of hypothesis :
- That was known from beginning (and always was a difficulty for purely thermal mechanistic) : for some modes there is
"no significant net thrust" without dielectric while same mode with dielectric exhibits thrust. This is known for TE012. The absence of thrust without dielectric was for
"some very early evaluations", the experimental plot is not published. A TE012 mode with dielectric and thrust is reported in Brady's report. The experimental plot in question, fig. 22 p.18 is unusual in a few respects : the calibrations pulses are 300V and valued at equivalent 60.1µN (instead of 200V 29.1µN for all other published experiments). The vertical scale in µm is absent. The reported "thrust"/power ratio is quite high (compared to other experiments). The rise and fall have a fast component and a slow component, the slow component is very slow (time constant clearly > 30s)
and of huge magnitude wrt fast one. Fast component is not fast enough to "ring the bell" the same way the cal. pulses do. All this would hint at "mainly thermal". But then we would expect some comparable thing without dielectric (unless with/without dielectric would alter the mode enough so that heating are quite different).
We still haven't seen an experimental plot (and accompanying data) of "no significant net thrust" without dielectric.. Also : apart from TE012 do we know another mode explicitly reported as having no thrust without dielectric and thrust with ? BTW what would be the heating profile for TE012, with and without dielectric ?
- The "turned 180°" experiment, with the small end toward right, should report the same thrust profile but in the opposite. It isn't. This would hint at interaction with vacuum chamber walls (the only apparent introduced asymmetry while turning test article 180°), that would nullify both thermal mechanistic
and EMdrive effects. But the cardboard box experiment tend to show otherwise : metallic walls in the vicinity apparently don't play an important role. There is apparent contradiction. Also the "180°" turn experiment was reported as having a dysfunctional RF amplifier (from recollection, anyone can confirm ?) why it is much shorter in duration than usual (?). Would it be possible that this plot is a fluke and not representative ? The idea that pendulum arm is not responsive in the same manner when driven from left to right than the other way around seems quite unlikely : that would mean that the (mechanical) system is behaving in a very far from linear fashion (for instance with solid friction). The cal. pulses are here to show that it is not the case, added on top of a drifting baseline, the same dip is shown whether starting a place or another : quite linear apparently. Another asymmetry introduced by the 180° turn is the position of nylon bolts relative to vertical : for a TM212 (cyl.) the 3 120° spaced bolts that hold dielectric don't bath at same level of microwave heating (because TM212 is not a 120° symmetric mode around axis). If the 180° turn wasn't around Z but around X (as it appear to be from the pictures), a more heated bolt that was above is now below (or the opposite, have to check). Anyway, that could make a difference. And if the "180° turn" plot is to be taken as reliable, this shows that it would make quite a difference.
That would hint at a central role of nylon bolts, that are hot enough to melt sometimes, and therefore can be quite often travelling through their glass transition temp. (much lower), with strong nonlinear (wrt Temperature) evolution of Young modulus. - Last but not least, the "real reversal" by putting dielectric at one end or the other. Note on the plot given with a thrust toward big end (the only plot showing that) that the displacements show a very unusual
step-down on top of the dip of "reversed thrust".

The position of LDS reading seems "permanently" changed by a "thrust" pulse. This hints at a remanence. Magnetic ? Maybe. From purely thermal mechanistic hypothesis this looks like permanent plastic deformation or hysteresis remanence. The only other place I see indication for a thrust "in the wrong direction" is in
this post where there is question of partial melting of nylon bolts... Again, if some experiment go up to melting, then quite a lot could actually be operating around glass transition and some of them near melting. From
this site : we see here that between around 50°C and 100°C the drop in rigidity is huge, this is much lower than the actual melting (220°C). Glass transition is reversible (I think) but may show hysteresis (no ?). How would a nylon bolt
under stress (ie. tensioned) behave in length when cycling around the glass transition, would it loosen the fixed dielectric then hold it tight again (against springy slightly warped end PCB plate, we are talking µm...) ?

Don't throw thermal mechanistic through the window. Experimental data can put it to the ground, but through the stairway, one downstep at a time. This post will inevitably raise more questions and objections, this is just ongoing speculations, I won't have time to really support all that in the coming days.