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@Frobnicat's conjecture is based on the shifting of the center of mass due to thermal expansion.
Yep.
here,
there in answer to zen-in's concerns around X axis that it would be actually worse around Z, and
there This last one being important because it shows 3 things :
- The rest angular deviation of the arm from its initial position because of CoM's shifts in test article is worse than the angle of said CoM's shift as seen from the axis Z. 1µm deviation of CoM will cause more than one µm LDS deviation.
- Such LDS deviation will be interpreted as a sustained force when there is just a mass standing at some new place.
- The LDS deviation is counter-intuitive for orientation. A mass travelling to the right (like an expanding dielectric disc on the small end) will not increase the LDS distance but will decrease it. So the idea that the dielectric expansion could drive the rise actually observed is very well nullified already. It is further nullified by the weak relative power dissipated at the small end, and by the high thermal resistivity of the dielectric that makes only an extremely thin layer to heat in contact to copper, and from some initial heat conduction simulation of mine gets initially less than .01µm per second of CoM shift (for the whole dielectric block) that is clearly too weak to get the LDS readings anywhere.
Not only Chloroprene-Rubber (CR) has a higher coefficient of thermal expansion than High-Density-Polyethylene-HDPE, but Chloroprene-Rubber (CR) also has a higher density than High-Density-Polyethylene-HDPE.
So this further nullifies @Frobnicat's conjecture.
According to @frobnicat's conjecture, the denser, higher-thermal-expansion material ("Neoprene®") should have produced a higher measured "thrust", but NASA Eagleworks results show the opposite: the denser, higher-thermal expansion material ("Neoprene®") resulted in insignificant thrust.
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Nope. (and I dare say, we are yet to see the charts recording those "insignificant thrusts" with or without such or such dielectric thereof, but this is an aside)
My conjecture is not about dielectric disc's CoM shift playing an important role in the thrust (did I say that ? Where ?) My conjecture is about some test article part's CoM shifting to the left (toward the small end) relative to fixation on the arm. Now what is susceptible to move to the left ? You know that better than anyone, you "invented" the inward buckling of the big end cap. The part that is the most heavily heated (granted this is not by a blowtorch !) and that has a boundary constraint such that, in first approximation, there is a square root between the delta expansion in plane and the resulting displacement perpendicular to plane : buckling is a very efficient amplifier. Under such buckling or near buckling conditions, the mass*displacement of the big end cap would play the major part of test article CoM's shift. Quantitative estimates ongoing...
The problem with thermal explanations is that, in particular in vacuum, given the low temperature deltas (a few °C) the evacuated heat rates are quite low relative to the received powers. The time constants to thermal equilibrium appear way beyond the 45s of a whole run. Therefore the fact that on some "thrusts" rises we see what
looks like a thermal first order constant rate heat charge against a proportional loss don't hold water. At 45s the various parts are still swallowing heat at constant rate and evacuating near to none, we would have a near linear rise in temperature wrt time all way through. So if LDS delta is proportional to Com shift (as per the tilted pendulum component), Com shift proportional to expansion, expansion proportional to temperature, and temperature proportional to time, we should see a linear rise, and not a "step". Yes but the buckling could make Com shift proportional to
square root of expansion. Now look at the chart below and see the step not as a cst-cst*exp(-cst*t) as per a naive thermal explanation but as a cst*sqrt(cst*t).
So the "attack" and the "sustain" can both be very well explained by progressive thermal expansion near buckling conditions and by a slightly tilted Z axis. Now for the fall (decay) :
for those still believing that thermal explanations are irrelevant, how is it possible that the decay is lingering at high LDS values for so long after power off ? But, with so low thermal radiation for cooling, there is no reason (from my conjectures so far) that there would be any significant decay at all : from my hypothesis the signal should stay constantly high at power off, only starting falling at a very small rate (much smaller that the rise rate).
This is why I said in previous post to Star-Drive that I don't believe in thermal effect as being the only cause of observed signal, from the shapes. Not because of rise and sustain (square root buckling amplification + tilted Z allowing for sustained "thrusts" by sustained relative Com's displacements) but because of decay. I do have an idea to explain that : Rodal have you considered that the supporting copper ring around the FR4 big end cap would also expand thermally ? What would happen if there was a (thermal conduction driven) temperature "delay" between the cap and the ring so that when the power stops the
difference between cap temperature and ring temperature falls fast enough to be compatible with the time constant of the observed decay ? This is my leading conjecture. I now do believe again in the possibility of a purely thermal explanation wholly consistent with both magnitude and shape of signal.

Edit : also not clear how the drifting baseline would fit in this framework of moving CoMs, would need a test article CoM rightward overall before power on and well after power off, looks like a contradiction of some of the hypothesis above...