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#80
by
Prober
on 26 Dec, 2014 13:52
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Have a long drawn out line of thinking but I'm reluctant to post it.
A something new has been added to events. Russia is planning/doing movement of Russian launchers (missiles) equipped with nuke payloads into Ukraine. This IMHO becomes a Arch Duke event (WWI). Talk about the 10,000 Russian "volunteers" located in Domblass Ukraine ends. This event scraps many agreements. UK & USA automatically ACT, NATO is called upon.
Stakes can be much higher depending on the answer to this question.....
A splinter group out of the KGB (I've forgotten the Russian name). In western terms they are Rouge KGB fanatical. Was Mr. Putin part of this group?
is it your hypothetical event (regards from Tom Clancy) or is it a recent gossip from mass media?
read google news (my stuff dismisses social media; garbage in garbage out) all these pieces are out there (3 reliable differing souces saying the same thing)....this is no joke.
Mindset: If the USA would move ships, aircraft, the army and maybe missiles into Cuba this would break many agreements going back to 1962. Russia would respond (rightly so)
Equivalence breakage of Ukraine agreements.
if you wish to enjoy the type of KGB agent I'm referring to look into this video (based on factual event)
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#81
by
fregate
on 01 Jan, 2015 11:48
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Have a long drawn out line of thinking but I'm reluctant to post it.
A something new has been added to events. Russia is planning/doing movement of Russian launchers (missiles) equipped with nuke payloads into Ukraine. This IMHO becomes a Arch Duke event (WWI). Talk about the 10,000 Russian "volunteers" located in Domblass Ukraine ends. This event scraps many agreements. UK & USA automatically ACT, NATO is called upon.
Stakes can be much higher depending on the answer to this question.....
A splinter group out of the KGB (I've forgotten the Russian name). In western terms they are Rouge KGB fanatical. Was Mr. Putin part of this group?
is it your hypothetical event (regards from Tom Clancy) or is it a recent gossip from mass media?
read google news (my stuff dismisses social media; garbage in garbage out) all these pieces are out there (3 reliable differing souces saying the same thing)....this is no joke.
Mindset: If the USA would move ships, aircraft, the army and maybe missiles into Cuba this would break many agreements going back to 1962. Russia would respond (rightly so) Equivalence breakage of Ukraine agreements.
if you wish to enjoy the type of KGB agent I'm referring to look into this video (based on factual event)
[youtube]fv0NlYLrRaM[/youtube]
I heard exactly an opposite - that one of the leading Ukrainian parties became ballistic and would like to produce a nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Nobody in their SANE mind would store nuclear WOD in war zone, but this is my PERSONAL opinion
BTW I watched the movie last year - D-rated comparing with Hunt for Red October and Crimson Tide
Still waiting for your "facts"
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#82
by
Danderman
on 01 Jan, 2015 18:03
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Discussions of hypothetical international political events are O/T here.
What is on topic are news of the impacts of the Ruble crisis on Russian aerospace, ie launches and programs delayed.
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#83
by
Prober
on 02 Jan, 2015 10:16
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Discussions of hypothetical international political events are O/T here.
What is on topic are news of the impacts of the Ruble crisis on Russian aerospace, ie launches and programs delayed.
disagree, missile launchers are aerospace. Funds moved to military uses might come out of Space research funds? You can only stretch limited Rubles so far.
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#84
by
gospacex
on 02 Jan, 2015 11:28
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By 2017/18 their economy will have rebound enough to talk about longer term partnerships realistically.
It is possible that Russian economy would not rebound at all. Russian companies' share prices mostly did *not* recover from 2008 crisis, unlike Western ones.
Unlike worldwide 2008 crisis which did end, current crisis in Russian economy has no end in sight: sanctions are likely to remain until Putin retreats from Crimea which he won't do; Russian companies have ~700bn of foreign debt which they can't refinance (no one is willing to lend them money b/c of the sanctions); because of interest rate hike businesses are closing or downsizing (no, it's not wishful thinking, I see numerous reports about this in Russian web); capital flight grew x2 in 2014; emigration of young educated people has increased too.
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#85
by
gospacex
on 02 Jan, 2015 11:39
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Saudi Arabia normally would have cut production to drive prices back up.
They recently discovered a new reality: if they cut production, others (such as Venezuela and Iran) *increase* it, with the net result of prices staying the same but SA losing market.
As it is, they have every well flowing at full capacity in order to drive prices down. This will make US shale oil and Canadian tar sand production unprofitable and bankrupt those ventures. That will stabilize prices through lower supply. Saudi Arabia will then reduce output and drive prices higher.
SA can well do that. It will only lead to them losing $$$.
Add to this the ~40% annual growth of renewables and wind/photovoltaics almost reaching price parity with traditional electricity generation. Photovoltaics price is falling b/c of production tech being optimized and economies of scale, and there is no way this trend will stop in foreseeable future (next ~20 years at least).
In mere 10 years, the *demand* for hydrocarbons will show a significant, and more importantly, *permanent* decline.
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#86
by
gospacex
on 02 Jan, 2015 11:44
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Tesla stock has taken a nose dive.
Google finance does not show it.
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#87
by
marcus79
on 02 Jan, 2015 13:46
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By 2017/18 their economy will have rebound enough to talk about longer term partnerships realistically.
It is possible that Russian economy would not rebound at all. Russian companies' share prices mostly did *not* recover from 2008 crisis, unlike Western ones.
Unlike worldwide 2008 crisis which did end, current crisis in Russian economy has no end in sight: sanctions are likely to remain until Putin retreats from Crimea which he won't do; Russian companies have ~700bn of foreign debt which they can't refinance (no one is willing to lend them money b/c of the sanctions); because of interest rate hike businesses are closing or downsizing (no, it's not wishful thinking, I see numerous reports about this in Russian web); capital flight grew x2 in 2014; emigration of young educated people has increased too.
Yes, it is likely that the current situation is not sustainable. Yet it seems to me that Russia is more moving toward China than toward the West, not only in geopolitical terms but also in terms of the political economic model. Up till now Putin has tried to balance between economic liberalism and geopolitical authoritarianism. Given that he cannot give up the latter (or face total defeat), he may well be forced to introduce things like capital control. That he has not done so already points to his unwillingness to go there, but it seems to me he will simply be forced by circumstances. It is arguably also the more popular course for his natural allies at home and in China.
A more Russian-based economy would be good news for the space industry in the long run, since it would force them to make more indigenous components for satellites and other equipment. Obviously, the hydrocarbon-fuelled dreams of lunar bases will have to be scrapped in practice, becoming the 'goal' like Mars is for NASA today. Although eventually they could well cooperate with China in a lunar programme.
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#88
by
asmi
on 02 Jan, 2015 16:46
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It is possible that Russian economy would not rebound at all. Russian companies' share prices mostly did *not* recover from 2008 crisis, unlike Western ones.
Unlike worldwide 2008 crisis which did end, current crisis in Russian economy has no end in sight:
You guys don't seem to understand Russian business situation. Since this not a financial forum (nor I am a financial specialist), I will try to explain it in simple terms. The reality is that vast majority of businesses there get financing not from the stock exchange (IPO/FPO, bonds and other financial instruments) like it is here in the West, but from banks and similar financial organizations. This makes this financing more expensive (since interest rate offered by the banks is dependent on Central Bank's refinancing rate), but it also insulates a company from whatever is happening on the stock market - since banks usually require securities like company's fixes assets and their price is not affected by fluctuations of stock prices. Now - there are few big companies what are listed in other stock exchanges, and they
might be affected by that if that's where they intend to draw financing from. That is why most Russian businesses shrug off any "stock market crashes", but they freaked out when refinancing rate was raised. Many businesses which are considered "vulnerable" by the Government (these are mostly agricultural, transportation) are subsidized in various ways (like providing Governmental guarantees for financing, tax breaks - most small businesses have an option to pay either 6% flat off their money flow, or 15% off income, and so on). Many of you probably heard that Russia has the lowest personal income tax rate in Europe (13% flat), but what you likely don't know is that employers pay significant taxes (it's called "social tax") on top of what their employees pay. This tax is used to finance social services like pension fund, healthcare (healthcare is free for all Russians, and here's where money are coming from), unemployment payments (works like employment insurance here in Canada) and so on.
I hope this will be useful.
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#89
by
asmi
on 02 Jan, 2015 16:49
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sanctions are likely to remain until Putin retreats from Crimea which he won't do;
He won't. I will cause so many internal problems so it's not an option. Even launching all-out nuclear war is more "favourable" option.
Russian companies have ~700bn of foreign debt which they can't refinance (no one is willing to lend them money b/c of the sanctions);
See my explanations above.
because of interest rate hike businesses are closing or downsizing (no, it's not wishful thinking, I see numerous reports about this in Russian web); capital flight grew x2 in 2014;
That is not true (again, see above).
emigration of young educated people has increased too.
And neither is this - to the best of my knowledge, and I know a thing or two about this since I happen to be an immigrant myself, and I talk to a lot of others who are thinking about immigration and try to help them out - I didn't notice any immigration hike in recent years, on fact it was on steady decline.
BUT all of this is mostly irrelevant to space industry.
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#90
by
Prober
on 02 Jan, 2015 17:04
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By 2017/18 their economy will have rebound enough to talk about longer term partnerships realistically.
It is possible that Russian economy would not rebound at all. Russian companies' share prices mostly did *not* recover from 2008 crisis, unlike Western ones.
Oh you scored today GO
I wish I could turn the launch key on every member of NSF around the world to focus on 07-08. There are reasons the Russian companies didn't recover, not the ones you think. Only a leaker would release the dirty secret from behind the locked door.
Unlike worldwide 2008 crisis which did end, current crisis in Russian economy has no end in sight: sanctions are likely to remain until Putin retreats from Crimea which he won't do; Russian companies have ~700bn of foreign debt which they can't refinance (no one is willing to lend them money b/c of the sanctions); because of interest rate hike businesses are closing or downsizing (no, it's not wishful thinking, I see numerous reports about this in Russian web); capital flight grew x2 in 2014; emigration of young educated people has increased too.
correct, and Mother Russia's credit card bill becomes due in less than 6 weeks I believe. Don't know if she has the cash to pay....default will ______?
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#91
by
gospacex
on 02 Jan, 2015 21:06
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A more Russian-based economy
Who exactly is going to be opening these "more Russian based" businesses, in the country where rule of law doesn't exist, where several huge businesses were destroyed merely on a whim of government, because owners dared to not completely agree with Putin?
And this is just a tip of the iceberg - Western press would not report, and therefore you won't hear, that another lucrative business somewhere in e.g. Astrakhan got destroyed by bureaucrats. But this happens hundreds of times each year. I was talking to people who had this happened to them, and they decided to start a new life and open a new business *in a saner country*!
Count how many former Putin aides have emigrated.
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#92
by
asmi
on 03 Jan, 2015 04:56
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Who exactly is going to be opening these "more Russian based" businesses, in the country where rule of law doesn't exist, where several huge businesses were destroyed merely on a whim of government, because owners dared to not completely agree with Putin?
That's what western media tells you?
Please tell me this - what do you
actually know about Russia, not from media/web, but from your own experience and that of your friends?
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#93
by
Danderman
on 03 Jan, 2015 05:01
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So, do any of you experts know whether Khrunichev, Energia, Lavochkin, et al are going to survive the ruble crisis?
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#94
by
marcus79
on 03 Jan, 2015 12:08
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So, do any of you experts know whether Khrunichev, Energia, Lavochkin, et al are going to survive the ruble crisis?
No, I do not.
But suppose one or several of them folded could the state not take over the assets and key personnel, placing them in the hands of the United Rocket and Space Corporation?
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#95
by
Prober
on 03 Jan, 2015 13:43
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So, do any of you experts know whether Khrunichev, Energia, Lavochkin, et al are going to survive the ruble crisis?
We could do some general thinking....we do know RD-180's and Orbitals engine purchases are western cash. Is it enough to keep the company alive?
We know Soyuz Crew to ISS and a private tourist to the ISS. But is that enough to keep everything alive?
We do know what 10 Soyuz to South America, but some quality issues with the last stage. Will that be enough?
Dan you started this thread, and there were some more drop numbers. Not sure if you wish to post them.
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#96
by
Prober
on 06 Feb, 2015 19:27
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This can not be good, and should filter into the Russian Space Program.
http://www.vedomosti.ru/opinion/news/38788481/chto-delat-s-dengamihttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/russians-advised-pull-money-banks-145700524.html"A columnist for Russia's Vedomosti newspaper, a joint venture between the Financial Times and The Wall Street Journal, has advised readers to pull their savings out of banks and convert them into physical dollars."
"It is better to keep money in foreign currency (dollars more than euros as the US economy is doing better than the EU) and prepare for what many economists are already saying could be a return to the conditions of the
1990s .."
I post this because when it says
1990's I think of the story I heard, that empty food containers were sent to MIR, as employees were not paid.
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#97
by
Danderman
on 22 Mar, 2015 18:12
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The latest impact has been the cancellation of any plans for a true heavy lift launch vehicle.
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#98
by
fregate
on 23 Mar, 2015 03:16
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The latest impact has been the cancellation of any plans for a true heavy lift launch vehicle.
there is also a bright side of this sad story - in theory Proton and Soyuz launches should be more competitive by price.
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#99
by
Danderman
on 25 Mar, 2015 13:44
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The latest impact has been the cancellation of any plans for a true heavy lift launch vehicle.
there is also a bright side of this sad story - in theory Proton and Soyuz launches should be more competitive by price.
In theory, but it is likely that prices for these are in US dollars and unchanged. It would be nice if I were wrong, since SpaceX is cleaning their clock right now.
Of course, fixed contracts like for NASA astronaut rides on Soyuz should be very lucrative for Russia now.
read google news (my stuff dismisses social media; garbage in garbage out) all these pieces are out there (3 reliable differing souces saying the same thing)....this is no joke.
