What will be first, Mars or Hyperloop?

[guckyfan]

Elon Musk paid a visit to Berlin to receive the "Goldenes Ehrenlenkrad 2914", a golden steering wheel from a german publication and gave an interview. A few infos in it. The article is in german.

http://www.autobild.de/artikel/interview-elon-musk-ueber-tesla-visionen-und-den-mars-5441637.html

One question was What will be first, Mars or Hyperloop? He answered probably Hyperloop. A connection Los Angeles to Las Vegas is considered.

About dying on Mars. Yes when that time comes. But first he will probably go and come back. Seems he has too many plans on earth.

He will stay as chairman of Tesla at least until their Model 3, the middle class car is on the market. After that he does not know.

He has bought the James Bond Lotus car that could dive. He is working on a close replica that can really drive and dive. Electric drive of course.

[Eerie]

Musk isn't doing anything for the hyperloop at the moment, as opposed to doing a lot for Mars. If I seriously wanted to build a vactrain I'd start with a research on cheaply sustained vacuum in large tubes. It's probably one hell of a difficult problem.

[Norm38]

Depends on the definition.  I'd be surprised if there wasn't a working hyperloop demo, or a short demo run, like the Shanghi airport maglev.

But I firmly believe that people will be living on Mars before we're all traveling in tubes.

We will travel in tubes!
Get the scientists working on tube technology.  Chop chop!
-Tenacious D

[JasonAW3]

I hope someone builds the Hyperloop.

     Don't know why but the idea of being shot around the country in giant pneumatic tubes at supersonic speeds has always had a weird appeal to me.

     I just hope I don't get routed to Albuqurcue when I'm trying to get to L.A.

[Lourens]

Not really anything new, but for future reference by those who like to argue about What Elon Said, here's an English translation of the parts pertaining to SpaceX. I translated sentence-by-sentence, to stay as close as possible to the original. Since English sentences tend to be longer than German ones, it reads a bit staccato, but at least it's accurate .

Which startup was the riskiest?
That was SpaceX.

Did you count on being successful with SpaceX and Tesla?
No, quite the opposite. I expected to fail. I believe in the saying "If you don't fail, you're not innovative enough."

You almost ended up being right. At the end of 2008, everything you built with the money from your PayPal share threatened to fail.
Those were the most difficult months of my life. In my private life I was getting divorced, in business also everything went wrong. I was close to a nervous breakdown. I wanted to invest half of the 165 million PayPay-dollars into Tesla and SpaceX. I ended up putting everything in. After the failure of the third rocket the end was very close. I started the fourth rocket with money borrowed from friends. The very last chance. And it went well. The next day NASA called and guaranteed 1.5 billion in orders. Since then, 14 rockets have flown into space. Then, on the last possible day, investors got on board with Tesla. Without that, Tesla would have been gone.

Dropping off satellites or transporting supplies to ISS doesn't satisfy you however. You want to go to Mars. Why?
Because it's important for humanity. Just like a new energy supply on Earth by the way. I'm convinced that humanity can continue to exist on Mars. I would come along, as well.

And die there?
I would come back before that. But when the time comes, why not?

And the ashes would be spread in space?
A: (Laughs) When it's over, it's over. But that would be cool.

[RanulfC]

Musk at one point said he'd do a "demo" hyperloop if he had too. Given how little support California is giving him I'm going to go out on a limb and say he'll probably have too

IIRC the hyperloop "vacuum" isn't all that hard and we have the technolgy and know-how to keep pressure in and/or out so it wouldn't be all that hard to do a short demo version. HOWEVER, it's going to cost and I don't see him realistically putting out the money when he's got other plans.

Randy

[guckyfan]

Musk at one point said he'd do a "demo" hyperloop if he had too. Given how little support California is giving him I'm going to go out on a limb and say he'll probably have too

IIRC the hyperloop "vacuum" isn't all that hard and we have the technolgy and know-how to keep pressure in and/or out so it wouldn't be all that hard to do a short demo version. HOWEVER, it's going to cost and I don't see him realistically putting out the money when he's got other plans.

Randy

He talked in the interview about a Hyperloop link to Las Vegas.

Ich glaube, der Hyperloop liegt vorn. Aber vielleicht mit einer anderen Strecke. Es gibt Interesse für die Strecke Los Angeles–Las Vegas.

I believe, Hyperloop is ahead (of Mars). But maybe with another link (than Los Angeles - San Francisco). There is interest in a link Los Angeles - Las Vegas.

So there must be someone, probably with money, behind it.

[RanulfC]

Musk at one point said he'd do a "demo" hyperloop if he had too. Given how little support California is giving him I'm going to go out on a limb and say he'll probably have too

IIRC the hyperloop "vacuum" isn't all that hard and we have the technolgy and know-how to keep pressure in and/or out so it wouldn't be all that hard to do a short demo version. HOWEVER, it's going to cost and I don't see him realistically putting out the money when he's got other plans.

He talked in the interview about a Hyperloop link to Las Vegas.

Ich glaube, der Hyperloop liegt vorn. Aber vielleicht mit einer anderen Strecke. Es gibt Interesse für die Strecke Los Angeles–Las Vegas.

I believe, Hyperloop is ahead (of Mars). But maybe with another link (than Los Angeles - San Francisco). There is interest in a link Los Angeles - Las Vegas.

So there must be someone, probably with money, behind it.

Eh, not really. There has been "talk" about an LA-LV "fast" train for a long while and so far no money ever comes forward for it. I suspect there is actually MORE interest in a fast train from Salt Lake City to LV (or Wendover, Nevada actually) than for doing so from LA. On long weekends there is actually slow-downs due to traffic on the roads from there to there where as you NEVER see that much traffic between LA and LV

Randy

[Nomadd]

 I think Hyperloop is complete nonsense. The potential for disaster from a problem, intentional or otherwise is so extreme there's no chance it will be built. Even emergency braking at 10 Gs would be nowhere near enough to prevent catastrophe if anything went wrong with the tube.

[ChrisWilson68]

I think Hyperloop is complete nonsense. The potential for disaster from a problem, intentional or otherwise is so extreme there's no chance it will be built. Even emergency braking at 10 Gs would be nowhere near enough to prevent catastrophe if anything went wrong with the tube.

What do you mean wrong with the tube?  You mean the tube just spontaneously breaking?

That doesn't seem any more likely to me than a section of a road bridge spontaneously falling away.

[TripD]

I think Hyperloop is complete nonsense. The potential for disaster from a problem, intentional or otherwise is so extreme there's no chance it will be built. Even emergency braking at 10 Gs would be nowhere near enough to prevent catastrophe if anything went wrong with the tube.

What do you mean wrong with the tube?  You mean the tube just spontaneously breaking?

That doesn't seem any more likely to me than a section of a road bridge spontaneously falling away.

Well to be fair, California keeps popping up as at least one destination of the tube.  Earthquakes do lend themselves to near instantaneous disasters and the estimated speeds of vehicles in the tube would make quick stops quite difficult.  On the other hand,  it is as likely that people not in the tube could be injured during an earthquake.

[ChrisWilson68]

I think Hyperloop is complete nonsense. The potential for disaster from a problem, intentional or otherwise is so extreme there's no chance it will be built. Even emergency braking at 10 Gs would be nowhere near enough to prevent catastrophe if anything went wrong with the tube.

What do you mean wrong with the tube?  You mean the tube just spontaneously breaking?

That doesn't seem any more likely to me than a section of a road bridge spontaneously falling away.

Well to be fair, California keeps popping up as at least one destination of the tube.  Earthquakes do lend themselves to near instantaneous disasters and the estimated speeds of vehicles in the tube would make quick stops quite difficult.  On the other hand,  it is as likely that people not in the tube could be injured during an earthquake.

Yeah, again, it's like a road bridge.  A strong earthquake could take out a section of hyperloop tube, but that same earthquake is just as likely to take out some auto bridges, with results that are just as bad for people who happen to be driving over them at the time.

[ncb1397]

I think Hyperloop is complete nonsense. The potential for disaster from a problem, intentional or otherwise is so extreme there's no chance it will be built. Even emergency braking at 10 Gs would be nowhere near enough to prevent catastrophe if anything went wrong with the tube.

Putting people in aluminum tubes with wings and dangling them thousands of feet above the surface at hundreds of miles per hour also seems sort of dangerous. Putting office/residential space hundreds of feet up in air also sounds kind of dangerous. Giving barely tested/trained teens drugs, alcohol and control of a multi-ton vehicle with speeds upwards of 100 mph seems sort of dangerous.

[Eerie]

Putting people in aluminum tubes with wings and dangling them thousands of feet above the surface at hundreds of miles per hour also seems sort of dangerous. Putting office/residential space hundreds of feet up in air also sounds kind of dangerous. Giving barely tested/trained teens drugs, alcohol and control of a multi-ton vehicle with speeds upwards of 100 mph seems sort of dangerous.

The speed of a vactrain is much higher than of a plane. And a train is much heavier. The energy released during a catastrophe will be enormous.

[ncb1397]

Putting people in aluminum tubes with wings and dangling them thousands of feet above the surface at hundreds of miles per hour also seems sort of dangerous. Putting office/residential space hundreds of feet up in air also sounds kind of dangerous. Giving barely tested/trained teens drugs, alcohol and control of a multi-ton vehicle with speeds upwards of 100 mph seems sort of dangerous.

The speed of a vactrain is much higher than of a plane. And a train is much heavier. The energy released during a catastrophe will be enormous.

"vactrains" don't have one speed. They are simply more energy efficient bullet trains with a corresponding higher top speed. Whether that top speed is utilized regularly is another matter. Bullet trains typically don't go full tilt either.

[Eerie]

"vactrains" don't have one speed. They are simply more energy efficient bullet trains with a corresponding higher top speed. Whether that top speed is utilized regularly is another matter. Bullet trains typically don't go full tilt either.

Actually, top speed of a real vactrain (with full vacuum) is the orbital speed at Earth surface. :-)

[Nomadd]

 Maybe terrorists will completely ignore the opportunity to wreak tremendous havoc with a simple satchel charge at the right time. Airliners at cruise have lots of space to maneuver when something goes wrong. This thing will be inches away from hitting a wall at several times the speed of a high powered rifle bullet at the tiniest problem. It would require a degree of perfection, trust and reliability that's not likely in this world.
 It doesn't "sound kind of dangerous" It is ridiculously dangerous.

[wannamoonbase]

What will come first, Mars or Hyperloop?

I think giving those two choices I have to say, The Moon.

Obviously Hyperloop is the most practical from an ease to build being on the earth and all.  But it would need a believing benefactor with billions to risk first.

I think putting humans on the moon by some country is going to happen within the next 10-20 years.

[guckyfan]

So there is nobody, who believes that Elon Musk knows something we don't and has a reason to believe it will be Hyperloop soon? Because there is something concrete going on?

[llanitedave]

I think Hyperloop is complete nonsense. The potential for disaster from a problem, intentional or otherwise is so extreme there's no chance it will be built. Even emergency braking at 10 Gs would be nowhere near enough to prevent catastrophe if anything went wrong with the tube.

What do you mean wrong with the tube?  You mean the tube just spontaneously breaking?

That doesn't seem any more likely to me than a section of a road bridge spontaneously falling away.

Earthquakes.  Even if it doesn't come completely apart, it can rupture and lose the vacuum.  And the LA to Las Vegas route, at least, would have to cross the San Andreas fault, and a few others.

[go4mars]

Maybe terrorists will completely ignore the opportunity to wreak tremendous havoc with a simple satchel charge at the right time. Airliners at cruise have lots of space to maneuver when something goes wrong. This thing will be inches away from hitting a wall at several times the speed of a high powered rifle bullet at the tiniest problem. It would require a degree of perfection, trust and reliability that's not likely in this world.
 It doesn't "sound kind of dangerous" It is ridiculously dangerous.

If you want to live in fear of it, call it caution or something else if you will, then don't buy a ticket.  I doubt anyone will be forced to ride.  I hope there's a Calgary-Edmonton-Vancouver-Ft.Mac hyperloop before too long.

[cscott]

Maybe terrorists will completely ignore the opportunity to wreak tremendous havoc with a simple satchel charge at the right time. Airliners at cruise have lots of space to maneuver when something goes wrong. This thing will be inches away from hitting a wall at several times the speed of a high powered rifle bullet at the tiniest problem. It would require a degree of perfection, trust and reliability that's not likely in this world.
 It doesn't "sound kind of dangerous" It is ridiculously dangerous.

If you want to live in fear of it, call it caution or something else if you will, then don't buy a ticket.  I doubt anyone will be forced to ride.  I hope there's a Calgary-Edmonton-Vancouver-Ft.Mac hyperloop before too long.

And the "small satchel charge" business is nonsense.  There are hundreds of places one could put a "small satchel charge" and cause tremendous damage.  The reasons why it doesn't happen are social, political, and moral, and have nothing to do with the technical details of a transportation system.
https://www.schneier.com/essays/archives/2005/09/terrorists_dont_do_m.html

[Vultur]

Maybe terrorists will completely ignore the opportunity to wreak tremendous havoc with a simple satchel charge at the right time.

There are a lot of things terrorists *could* damage. But there aren't very many terrorist incidents in the US despite the fear (just like nuclear accidents, the fear of it and measures taken to prevent it is way out of proportion to the risk). If this was being considered for, say, one of the disputed Israel-Palestine areas....

[dglow]

So there is nobody, who believes that Elon Musk knows something we don't and has a reason to believe it will be Hyperloop soon? Because there is something concrete going on?

What's concrete is that California's governor was just elected to his 4th (career) and final term, and wants high-speed rail as one of his legacies. If Elon's wishes to build a demo tube, now seems the time.

Earthquakes.  Even if it doesn't come completely apart, it can rupture and lose the vacuum.  And the LA to Las Vegas route, at least, would have to cross the San Andreas fault, and a few others.

Rupture and loss of vacuum is not a LOV/LOC event for the hyperloop. Its tubes do not operate at pure vacuum.

As for the shaking from a quake, why would one suspect a high-speed train – with its tracks directly mounted to the earth – is any less susceptible?

Maybe terrorists will completely ignore the opportunity to wreak tremendous havoc with a simple satchel charge at the right time. <snip>  It doesn't "sound kind of dangerous" It is ridiculously dangerous.

Bullet trains are no less a target. The tracks are exposed and, at least in CA's HSR proposal, require significant security fencing surrounding them, primarily to keep things off the tracks.

Did anyone else read the proposal Elon & Co. released?

[a_langwich]

I agree with Nomadd at the top level--I don't think the hyperloop will happen.  We probably differ on reasons why. 

An above-ground train, with few requirements other than grading the land and dropping cross-ties and two rails, hasn't been shown to be economic, except in a few areas of the country.  In NO areas of the country does it make sense financially when you include costs for acquisition of right-of-way.

Adding speed improves competitiveness with air travel, but greatly increases costs.

Adding speed and building the entire thing underground greatly increases costs beyond just high speed.

Trying to maintain even a mild vacuum over many miles while designing in branches and sidings and stations for a real-world transit system just multiplies the costs even further.

Maybe it would make more sense financially in Europe.

[Nomadd]

As for the shaking from a quake, why would one suspect a high-speed train – with its tracks directly mounted to the earth – is any less susceptible?


Bullet trains are no less a target. The tracks are exposed and, at least in CA's HSR proposal, require significant security fencing surrounding them, primarily to keep things off the tracks.

You really can't see any difference between a train going 150 mph and one going 800 mph?

[NovaSilisko]

Both will come at the same time, the first hyperloop will be constructed on mars. 

[llanitedave]

As for the shaking from a quake, why would one suspect a high-speed train – with its tracks directly mounted to the earth – is any less susceptible?


Bullet trains are no less a target. The tracks are exposed and, at least in CA's HSR proposal, require significant security fencing surrounding them, primarily to keep things off the tracks.

You really can't see any difference between a train going 150 mph and one going 800 mph?

Indeed.  A train wreck on the surface is a pretty horrifying sight, with cars scattered about and shattered.  But at least there you can bring in rescue squads and attend to the wounded fairly quickly.

What happens when the walls of the hyperloop tunnel suddenly shear and offset by several meters?  If a train is approaching when it happens, it won't go off rails, it will slam into the offset wall, essentially disintegrating into very small pieces.  In that way, it will be more like a jetliner crash.  Unlike a jetliner crash, though, you wonn't be able to send teams in to pick up the pieces or look for survivors, you'll have to excavate the tunnel before you can even know what happened.  So you not only have to replace your destroyed conveyance, you have to rebuild the route that it travels through.

Now I can't say this will be more or less risky overall than taking an airliner.  But it does look like the consequences of an accident will be more complicated and expensive.  Even if an accident is successfully avoided, there's still an expensive rebuilding job to do.  Airliner accidents don't normally close down the entire route.  An accident or physical failure in this case would lead to a long shutdown.

[go4mars]

If this was being considered for, say, one of the disputed Israel-Palestine areas....

It is. Google "hyperloop Isreal 2015".

[Misha Vargas]

Did anyone else read the proposal Elon & Co. released?

Apparently not.

[...]
Adding speed and building the entire thing underground greatly increases costs beyond just high speed.
[...]

[...]
What happens when the walls of the hyperloop tunnel suddenly shear and offset by several meters?  If a train is approaching when it happens, it won't go off rails, it will slam into the offset wall, essentially disintegrating into very small pieces [...] you'll have to excavate the tunnel before you can even know what happened.  So you not only have to replace your destroyed conveyance, you have to rebuild the route that it travels through.
[...]

[Coastal Ron]

What happens when the walls of the hyperloop tunnel suddenly shear and offset by several meters?

I'm not sure you're familiar with the forces at work here.  The tubes the cars ride in are under compression due to the pressure difference between the vacuum inside and the standard atmosphere on the outside.  There would have to be a heck of a lot of shear force in one spot in order to break open the tubes, and since the design that was initially suggested consisted of tubes on pylons, I don't see where any shear force would be coming in.

If a train is approaching when it happens, it won't go off rails, it will slam into the offset wall, essentially disintegrating into very small pieces.

Happens all the time on our nations highways, and even occasionally with passenger rail.  Accidents happen.

However Musk did address tube failures and said that once the vacuum is lost in the tubes that the cars automatically slow down because of air resistance (i.e. lack of vacuum).  No doubt they can also communicate with each car and have them automatically stop where they are in the system if need be.

But if there is a cataclysmic event that causes such a tube failure, chances are many other parts of the local transportation infrastructure will have also failed, probably with far higher loss of life, so I don't think too many people will be focused on just the Hyperloop system.

I have no idea whether any of the government or private entities that would benefit from a dedicated transportation system want to build a Hyperloop system, but I don't think they would have anymore concern over them than they would over other existing transportation systems.

[Oli]

Vactrains might happen at some point in the future, but they won't look like hyperloop.

The diameter of the tube will be bigger, with larger trains. The vacuum will be less perfect. The trains will go less fast. They will utilize Maglev. The tube will be built almost entirely underground.

[philw1776]

I'm pessimistic about Hyperloop for non-technical reasons. 
First, unlike Mars there is no Elon class figure driving the implementation 24/7.  Such focused leadership is required for paradigm breaking innovation. 
Secondly, HLoop is dependent on state and local political congruence. Totally uncontrollable even by excellent leadership.  All it takes is one or more special interest groups getting their noses bent out of shape and the program is derailed or delayed.  Delays cost $.  Costs escalate.

[Chris Bergin]

Sorry, we're not a site that covers Earth bound transportation systems. That's "www. ElonHyperloopAndNiceCars.com/forum"

Locked.