Author Topic: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread  (Read 445660 times)

Offline gongora

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1520 on: 03/13/2019 12:05 am »
The company supposed to allow people to go to Mars for peanuts increasing their prices by 50pct? Pretty significant.

Yep. They're now charging ~$230m for a cargo and ~$400m for a crewed flight (excluding launch), BFR will cost several times that much, everything else is wishful thinking.

I don't think that's accurate excluding launch. Launch (on a new booster every time) is part of the package, separate costs are not detailed anywhere that I know of.

Crew Dragon only has 2 flights per year. If BFR only flies twice per year, it will cost at least that much, but that rate is not sustainable - it will either fly much more (and lower cost per flight), or not at all.

Crew Dragon only has 1 flight per year, and it's more in the $200-230M range including launch if you look at the amount on the task orders for the flights.  The cost of passenger flights to Mars on BFR is unknown and irrelevant right now, that's far in the future.

The recurring price for crewed Dragon (including ops, excluding launch) is $308m, not $400m. My mistake. The source (page 10): https://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20170008893.pdf

The paper you linked is a bunch of estimates.  There is no such thing as a recurring price for crewed Dragon (or CST-100) excluding launch.  Those contracts are for launch and operation of the spacecraft.  That wording was in there because the chart also included other NASA vechicles where the spacecraft and launcher are procured separately.  Adding the cost of the launch to those numbers for Dragon and CST-100 would make them completely absurd. 

NASA has issued task orders for flights under the CCtCap program.  The task orders for the Boeing flights are $350M for each flight.  The task orders for SpaceX don't show a consistent price, starting at $200M for the first one and averaging about $220M for flights 3-6 (for both Boeing and SpaceX the first two flights were done separately, and flights 3-6 as a group.)

Online theinternetftw

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1521 on: 03/13/2019 12:57 am »
I know digging up old posts is a pain, but thanks for taking the time.  I think it's an important response not just to my post but to QG's as well.

Also, I'm perhaps a little bit too entertained by the fact that even the NASA folks who seem to have the best handle on how much commercial can save still ended up significantly overestimating how much CCP acquisition was going to cost.

Offline su27k

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1522 on: 03/13/2019 02:06 am »
Remember all those arguments about seat cost for commercial crew? Well, now we know! NASA has published a paper giving the separate costs for development and unit.

And just to set the record straight, here's the actual delivery orders for Post Certification Missions (PCM) with their real prices:

SpaceX:
PCM-1: https://govtribe.com/award/federal-contract-award/delivery-order-nnk14ma74c-nnk16ma03t, $200,254,129
PCM-2: https://govtribe.com/award/federal-contract-award/delivery-order-nnk14ma74c-nnk16ma58t, $205,715,924
PCM-3 to 6: https://govtribe.com/award/federal-contract-award/delivery-order-nnk14ma74c-nnk17ma01t, $885,952,220

Boeing:
PCM-1: https://govtribe.com/award/federal-contract-award/delivery-order-nnk14ma75c-nnk15ma50t, $351,107,889
PCM-2: https://govtribe.com/award/federal-contract-award/delivery-order-nnk14ma75c-nnk16ma04t, $351,107,889
PCM-3 to 6: https://govtribe.com/award/federal-contract-award/delivery-order-nnk14ma75c-nnk17ma02t, $1,404,431,554

Average mission price for SpaceX: $215M
Average seat price for SpaceX (assuming 4 seats per flight): $53.75M
Average mission price for Boeing: $351M
Average seat price for Boeing (assuming 4 seats per flight): $87.75M

Offline woods170

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1523 on: 03/13/2019 07:25 am »
Remember all those arguments about seat cost for commercial crew? Well, now we know! NASA has published a paper giving the separate costs for development and unit.

And just to set the record straight, here's the actual delivery orders for Post Certification Missions (PCM) with their real prices:

SpaceX:
PCM-1: https://govtribe.com/award/federal-contract-award/delivery-order-nnk14ma74c-nnk16ma03t, $200,254,129
PCM-2: https://govtribe.com/award/federal-contract-award/delivery-order-nnk14ma74c-nnk16ma58t, $205,715,924
PCM-3 to 6: https://govtribe.com/award/federal-contract-award/delivery-order-nnk14ma74c-nnk17ma01t, $885,952,220

Boeing:
PCM-1: https://govtribe.com/award/federal-contract-award/delivery-order-nnk14ma75c-nnk15ma50t, $351,107,889
PCM-2: https://govtribe.com/award/federal-contract-award/delivery-order-nnk14ma75c-nnk16ma04t, $351,107,889
PCM-3 to 6: https://govtribe.com/award/federal-contract-award/delivery-order-nnk14ma75c-nnk17ma02t, $1,404,431,554

Average mission price for SpaceX: $215M
Average seat price for SpaceX (assuming 4 seats per flight): $53.75M
Average mission price for Boeing: $351M
Average seat price for Boeing (assuming 4 seats per flight): $87.75M

Interesting this.

The SpaceX numbers come to a total of ~ $1.3B for their six PCM missions. Which is roughly half of the total SpaceX is getting under CCtCAP: $2.6B.

The Boeing numbers come to a total of ~ 2.1B for their six PCM missions. Which is again roughly half of the total Boeing is getting under CCtCAP: $4.2B.

This would suggest that the contracting structure for CCtCAP is very simple: half the money involved is for final development of the CCP systems, including the test flights (both unmanned and manned) and the other half of the money is for operational missions.

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1524 on: 03/13/2019 07:51 am »
Average seat price.. (assuming 4 seats per flight)

No idea why you're assuming that when NASA has already said they won't be using the 4th seat.
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Online abaddon

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1525 on: 03/13/2019 07:53 am »
Average seat price.. (assuming 4 seats per flight)

No idea why you're assuming that when NASA has already said they won't be using the 4th seat.
Because you're wrong, and they will be using four seats?  They've gone on and on about how this will allow them to expand ISS science by adding a 7th crew member to the station since forever.  They've also talked about how there are two astros assigned to the first crewed flight, with two international partner astros to be named later.

(If you're counting only NASA astronauts here, then Soyuz doesn't fly three and Shuttle didn't fly seven, and your accounting system is broken).
« Last Edit: 03/13/2019 07:57 am by abaddon »

Offline Steven Pietrobon

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1526 on: 03/13/2019 09:17 am »
And just to set the record straight, here's the actual delivery orders for Post Certification Missions (PCM) with their real prices:

Wow! Thanks for that information. The author of the paper was estimating costs based on the FY2016 budget request. He estimated unit costs (including launch) of $405M and $654M for SpaceX and Orion, compared to $215M and $351M actual. That's an overestimate of 88% and 86%, respectively. In the 2016 budget, the crew and cargo budget increases from $1,606M in 2016 to $2,334M in 2020. Assuming $90M a seat on Soyuz, that gives a cost difference of 2334-1606+6*90 = $1268M. His estimate is 405+654 = $1059M, close to this value (estimate is 20% higher).

In this years budget, the actual crew and cargo cost is $1727M. Thus, the actual difference is 1727-1606+6*90 = $661M. Adding CST-100 and Dragon 2, that gives 215+351 = $566M, close to this difference (estimate is 17% higher). The extra 20% and 17% could be due in part to changes in prices for cargo and NASA overhead for the crewed launches.

I have to say that $215M for a crewed launch is an amazing price! With a full complement of 7 crew, that works out to only $31M per seat. I don't think Boeing will be able to compete outside of NASA on getting passengers if it is charging $351M.
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Online abaddon

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1527 on: 03/13/2019 04:21 pm »
I have to say that $215M for a crewed launch is an amazing price! With a full complement of 7 crew, that works out to only $31M per seat. I don't think Boeing will be able to compete outside of NASA on getting passengers if it is charging $351M.
$350 million is still only $50 million/seat if flying seven.  I think it's unclear how interested SpaceX will be in flying commercial passengers on Dragon depending on how Starliner is going.  There could be a reasonably long window where Boeing would be the only game in town if they wanted to pursue it.

I think finding seven passengers who are willing to spend either amount all going up together might be a bigger challenge, though, and the pricing goes up dramatically as you subtract passengers...

Offline rockets4life97

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1528 on: 03/13/2019 04:51 pm »
They payoff for commercial customers of the Commercial Crew Program will be when SpaceX's starship flies. Crewed starship would not be possible (in the same time frame) without SpaceX learning from NASA about how to fly crew.

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