Quote from: Oli on 04/28/2018 06:18 pmQuote from: gongora on 04/28/2018 02:00 amQuote from: envy887 on 04/28/2018 01:49 amQuote from: Oli on 04/28/2018 01:38 amQuote from: high road on 04/27/2018 06:05 amThe company supposed to allow people to go to Mars for peanuts increasing their prices by 50pct? Pretty significant.Yep. They're now charging ~$230m for a cargo and ~$400m for a crewed flight (excluding launch), BFR will cost several times that much, everything else is wishful thinking.I don't think that's accurate excluding launch. Launch (on a new booster every time) is part of the package, separate costs are not detailed anywhere that I know of.Crew Dragon only has 2 flights per year. If BFR only flies twice per year, it will cost at least that much, but that rate is not sustainable - it will either fly much more (and lower cost per flight), or not at all.Crew Dragon only has 1 flight per year, and it's more in the $200-230M range including launch if you look at the amount on the task orders for the flights. The cost of passenger flights to Mars on BFR is unknown and irrelevant right now, that's far in the future.The recurring price for crewed Dragon (including ops, excluding launch) is $308m, not $400m. My mistake. The source (page 10): https://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20170008893.pdfThe paper you linked is a bunch of estimates. There is no such thing as a recurring price for crewed Dragon (or CST-100) excluding launch. Those contracts are for launch and operation of the spacecraft. That wording was in there because the chart also included other NASA vechicles where the spacecraft and launcher are procured separately. Adding the cost of the launch to those numbers for Dragon and CST-100 would make them completely absurd. NASA has issued task orders for flights under the CCtCap program. The task orders for the Boeing flights are $350M for each flight. The task orders for SpaceX don't show a consistent price, starting at $200M for the first one and averaging about $220M for flights 3-6 (for both Boeing and SpaceX the first two flights were done separately, and flights 3-6 as a group.)
Quote from: gongora on 04/28/2018 02:00 amQuote from: envy887 on 04/28/2018 01:49 amQuote from: Oli on 04/28/2018 01:38 amQuote from: high road on 04/27/2018 06:05 amThe company supposed to allow people to go to Mars for peanuts increasing their prices by 50pct? Pretty significant.Yep. They're now charging ~$230m for a cargo and ~$400m for a crewed flight (excluding launch), BFR will cost several times that much, everything else is wishful thinking.I don't think that's accurate excluding launch. Launch (on a new booster every time) is part of the package, separate costs are not detailed anywhere that I know of.Crew Dragon only has 2 flights per year. If BFR only flies twice per year, it will cost at least that much, but that rate is not sustainable - it will either fly much more (and lower cost per flight), or not at all.Crew Dragon only has 1 flight per year, and it's more in the $200-230M range including launch if you look at the amount on the task orders for the flights. The cost of passenger flights to Mars on BFR is unknown and irrelevant right now, that's far in the future.The recurring price for crewed Dragon (including ops, excluding launch) is $308m, not $400m. My mistake. The source (page 10): https://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20170008893.pdf
Quote from: envy887 on 04/28/2018 01:49 amQuote from: Oli on 04/28/2018 01:38 amQuote from: high road on 04/27/2018 06:05 amThe company supposed to allow people to go to Mars for peanuts increasing their prices by 50pct? Pretty significant.Yep. They're now charging ~$230m for a cargo and ~$400m for a crewed flight (excluding launch), BFR will cost several times that much, everything else is wishful thinking.I don't think that's accurate excluding launch. Launch (on a new booster every time) is part of the package, separate costs are not detailed anywhere that I know of.Crew Dragon only has 2 flights per year. If BFR only flies twice per year, it will cost at least that much, but that rate is not sustainable - it will either fly much more (and lower cost per flight), or not at all.Crew Dragon only has 1 flight per year, and it's more in the $200-230M range including launch if you look at the amount on the task orders for the flights. The cost of passenger flights to Mars on BFR is unknown and irrelevant right now, that's far in the future.
Quote from: Oli on 04/28/2018 01:38 amQuote from: high road on 04/27/2018 06:05 amThe company supposed to allow people to go to Mars for peanuts increasing their prices by 50pct? Pretty significant.Yep. They're now charging ~$230m for a cargo and ~$400m for a crewed flight (excluding launch), BFR will cost several times that much, everything else is wishful thinking.I don't think that's accurate excluding launch. Launch (on a new booster every time) is part of the package, separate costs are not detailed anywhere that I know of.Crew Dragon only has 2 flights per year. If BFR only flies twice per year, it will cost at least that much, but that rate is not sustainable - it will either fly much more (and lower cost per flight), or not at all.
Quote from: high road on 04/27/2018 06:05 amThe company supposed to allow people to go to Mars for peanuts increasing their prices by 50pct? Pretty significant.Yep. They're now charging ~$230m for a cargo and ~$400m for a crewed flight (excluding launch), BFR will cost several times that much, everything else is wishful thinking.
The company supposed to allow people to go to Mars for peanuts increasing their prices by 50pct? Pretty significant.
Remember all those arguments about seat cost for commercial crew? Well, now we know! NASA has published a paper giving the separate costs for development and unit.
Quote from: Steven Pietrobon on 03/12/2019 10:29 pmRemember all those arguments about seat cost for commercial crew? Well, now we know! NASA has published a paper giving the separate costs for development and unit.And just to set the record straight, here's the actual delivery orders for Post Certification Missions (PCM) with their real prices:SpaceX:PCM-1: https://govtribe.com/award/federal-contract-award/delivery-order-nnk14ma74c-nnk16ma03t, $200,254,129PCM-2: https://govtribe.com/award/federal-contract-award/delivery-order-nnk14ma74c-nnk16ma58t, $205,715,924PCM-3 to 6: https://govtribe.com/award/federal-contract-award/delivery-order-nnk14ma74c-nnk17ma01t, $885,952,220Boeing:PCM-1: https://govtribe.com/award/federal-contract-award/delivery-order-nnk14ma75c-nnk15ma50t, $351,107,889PCM-2: https://govtribe.com/award/federal-contract-award/delivery-order-nnk14ma75c-nnk16ma04t, $351,107,889PCM-3 to 6: https://govtribe.com/award/federal-contract-award/delivery-order-nnk14ma75c-nnk17ma02t, $1,404,431,554Average mission price for SpaceX: $215MAverage seat price for SpaceX (assuming 4 seats per flight): $53.75MAverage mission price for Boeing: $351MAverage seat price for Boeing (assuming 4 seats per flight): $87.75M
Average seat price.. (assuming 4 seats per flight)
Quote from: su27k on 03/13/2019 02:06 amAverage seat price.. (assuming 4 seats per flight)No idea why you're assuming that when NASA has already said they won't be using the 4th seat.
And just to set the record straight, here's the actual delivery orders for Post Certification Missions (PCM) with their real prices:
I have to say that $215M for a crewed launch is an amazing price! With a full complement of 7 crew, that works out to only $31M per seat. I don't think Boeing will be able to compete outside of NASA on getting passengers if it is charging $351M.
It's almost like they baked the numbers that way... For example, there's virtually no chance that NASA will be paying $77M/seat for Dragon, they'll be paying the unit price and flying 2 or 3 seats. Worse for Starliner (why are they still using CST-100?)Thankfully, few people ever took seriously the idea that spending $6B to develop two vehicles*, that will cost more for NASA to fly than just buying seats on Soyuz until the retirement of the ISS, was about cost saving. It's about national prestige and giving money to Boeing (with SpaceX along for the ride). Only recently has anyone been pushing the idea that Dragon/Starliner have a lifetime beyond the ISS - and it's really not that popular a viewpoint.* Plus the rest of the funding that went into this program - notice how none of that got accounted.
Bob Behnken ✔ @AstroBehnken But even after all that, I'm super excited about what my future w/@NASA holds! Check out these cools shots @SpaceX shared with those of us scheduled to fly on #CrewDragon!8:30 PM - Mar 22, 2019https://twitter.com/AstroBehnken/status/1109250971757010945
Darn! The photographer did a beautiful job in placing those softboxes. Their reflections in the visor are almost perfectly symmetrical and make Bob's face really pop out.
Quote from: woods170 on 03/24/2019 09:53 amDarn! The photographer did a beautiful job in placing those softboxes. Their reflections in the visor are almost perfectly symmetrical and make Bob's face really pop out.I think the point of the suit is _prevent_ Bob’s face from really popping out...!
Because you're wrong, and they will be using four seats? They've gone on and on about how this will allow them to expand ISS science by adding a 7th crew member to the station since forever. They've also talked about how there are two astros assigned to the first crewed flight, with two international partner astros to be named later.
Also, if all goes well, in the next 9 months there will be at least one privately owned, NASA approved, rocket and capsule that can do space tourism stuff. Which IMHO is the thin edge of the wedge.
Quote from: abaddon on 03/13/2019 07:53 amBecause you're wrong, and they will be using four seats? They've gone on and on about how this will allow them to expand ISS science by adding a 7th crew member to the station since forever. They've also talked about how there are two astros assigned to the first crewed flight, with two international partner astros to be named later.It's almost like you can't read between the lines.
