Author Topic: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 1  (Read 656536 times)

Offline Svetoslav

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Offline Lars-J

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1341 on: 10/05/2018 09:37 pm »
Oh my, things are getting ugly. Read this:

https://www.businessinsider.com/boeing-may-have-used-firm-to-plant-anti-spacex-oped-2018-10

Yep, and this article provides the Boeing link. The author of the op-Ed says he only passed it to one person - a Boeing employee.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Offline joek

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1343 on: 10/05/2018 10:32 pm »
I don’t believe they were touted as number one client just as one amongst a small group of prominent clients.
True, but if you are listed first... That implies it. Heavily.

No, just means that the firm's marketing department wants to list prominent clients at the top.  If I have 999 ankle-biter clients and Apple is 1000th on the list by revenue-importance-whatever, what spot do you think they're going to get on my web page?  #1.

In any case, how did this thread get turned into discussion of low-brow-yellow-journalism-stupid-op-ed pieces?  This belongs in something more akin to a party section.  Or maybe an anti-party section.  Or stupid journalism section.  Or something.  Really not worth polluting this thread with such crap.

Offline Lars-J

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1344 on: 10/05/2018 11:10 pm »
In any case, how did this thread get turned into discussion of low-brow-yellow-journalism-stupid-op-ed pieces?  This belongs in something more akin to a party section.  Or maybe an anti-party section.  Or stupid journalism section.  Or something.  Really not worth polluting this thread with such crap.

What belongs in the party section? Eric Berger's story? The Business Insider follow-up piece? Or our discussion of it?
« Last Edit: 10/05/2018 11:11 pm by Lars-J »

Offline deruch

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1345 on: 10/05/2018 11:24 pm »
Trash talk is part of the business. SpaceX does it too.

Quote
"If they do somehow show up in the next 5 years with a vehicle qualified to NASA's human rating standards that can dock with the Space Station, which is what Pad 39A is meant to do, we will gladly accommodate their needs," writes Musk. "Frankly, I think we are more likely to discover unicorns dancing in the flame duct."
https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-accuses-blue-origin-of-blocking-spacex-2013-9

Blue Origin didn't show up with a vehicle within 5 years, but neither did SpaceX.

Ok, technically true.  But SpaceX did use that pad for orbital launches with the same LV (more or less) which will be used as part of their crew transport system within the 5-year timeline.  In fact, they used it for multiple cargo supply missions to the ISS (as well as commercial launches).  And they're likely to fully meet all the conditions, i.e. crewed launch of qualified system to ISS, within ~6.5 years.  Which isn't horrific delay for such systems.  Maybe if BO had gotten the 39A lease they would have prioritized their launcher/capsule developments differently.  Who knows?  But even so, I highly doubt they would be anywhere close to where SpaceX is today on that metric. 

And, tying back into the article, those comments from Elon were in an entirely different business/competition context.  There was very clear and definite competition between the two companies at that time over the specific point in contention (BO had just filed their GAO protest against the selection of SpaceX for the 39A lease).  If Boeing was behind the current Op-Eds, it's not at all clear that there is any current direct and specific competition between the two companies.  And Elon's comments were explicitly official, not hidden PR.  In my opinion, the manner of using a paid, third-party Op-Ed in an attempt to mask the true source of the criticism is clearly different. 
Shouldn't reality posts be in "Advanced concepts"?  --Nomadd

Offline MATTBLAK

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1346 on: 10/05/2018 11:47 pm »
Given that you are not from the USA, what do you care?

Weren't the Apollo missions touted as "for all mankind"? If so, why shouldn't I care :)

If that is your line of reasoning than I counter with "We have Soyuz to get to LEO".

Why do any of us care?! We believe in the future of Space, for all mankind. America is the largest player and in context gets our affection/attention.
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Online Comga

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1347 on: 10/06/2018 04:56 am »
Given that you are not from the USA, what do you care?

Weren't the Apollo missions touted as "for all mankind"? If so, why shouldn't I care :)

If that is your line of reasoning than I counter with "We have Soyuz to get to LEO".

Why do any of us care?! We believe in the future of Space, for all mankind. America is the largest player and in context gets our affection/attention.
We care because we are personally invested in the manned space program and it will be personally embarrassing if and when NASA makes a big hullabaloo about the 50th anniversary of the first moon landing while getting almost nothing done. As if they should take any credit for the accomplishments of their ancestors while touting their $20+B rocket and capsule that still haven’t launched (EFT-1 blah blah blah) Or found a purpose. Still getting rides in Soyuz, with the occasional drill hole in their pressure vessels, while they count how many killer micrometeoroid angels can dance in the heads of the ASAP. 
It’s shameful. We understand why but it’s still shameful.
[/rant]
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline Star One

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1348 on: 10/08/2018 10:21 am »
Given that you are not from the USA, what do you care?

Weren't the Apollo missions touted as "for all mankind"? If so, why shouldn't I care :)

If that is your line of reasoning than I counter with "We have Soyuz to get to LEO".

Why do any of us care?! We believe in the future of Space, for all mankind. America is the largest player and in context gets our affection/attention.
We care because we are personally invested in the manned space program and it will be personally embarrassing if and when NASA makes a big hullabaloo about the 50th anniversary of the first moon landing while getting almost nothing done. As if they should take any credit for the accomplishments of their ancestors while touting their $20+B rocket and capsule that still haven’t launched (EFT-1 blah blah blah) Or found a purpose. Still getting rides in Soyuz, with the occasional drill hole in their pressure vessels, while they count how many killer micrometeoroid angels can dance in the heads of the ASAP. 
It’s shameful. We understand why but it’s still shameful.
[/rant]

It’s not their rocket really though is it. More something imposed on them by politicians.

Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1349 on: 10/08/2018 07:19 pm »
We care because we are personally invested in the manned space program and it will be personally embarrassing if and when NASA makes a big hullabaloo about the 50th anniversary of the first moon landing while getting almost nothing done. As if they should take any credit for the accomplishments of their ancestors while touting their $20+B rocket and capsule that still haven’t launched (EFT-1 blah blah blah) Or found a purpose. Still getting rides in Soyuz, with the occasional drill hole in their pressure vessels, while they count how many killer micrometeoroid angels can dance in the heads of the ASAP. 
It’s shameful. We understand why but it’s still shameful.
[/rant]

There must be people in NASA HQ really hoping that Commercial Crew gets NASA astronauts back to the ISS and Lunar CATALYST gets robots to the Moon in 2019.

Offline gongora

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1350 on: 10/11/2018 04:23 pm »
Commercial Crew discussion at ASAP meeting...

Still lots of verification work to be finished with both contractors.

SpaceX:
COPV failure investigation still not closed.
There have been unspecified anomalies observed with parachute testing and CRS parachutes.  Don't know how serious or if any design changes would be needed.  Stressed they think this should be resolved before uncrewed flight.

Boeing:
Parachute testing continues, some sort of anomaly on last test.   A couple more tests still to do.
The pyro assemblies for separating crew module from service module have had unexpected fractures in testing, successfully performed their function but created some FOD.
The problem with the launch abort system was described as a harmonic resonance creating a water hammer effect, still working on fixes.

Offline woods170

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1351 on: 10/12/2018 06:48 am »
Commercial Crew discussion at ASAP meeting...

Still lots of verification work to be finished with both contractors.

SpaceX:
COPV failure investigation still not closed.
There have been unspecified anomalies observed with parachute testing and CRS parachutes.  Don't know how serious or if any design changes would be needed.  Stressed they think this should be resolved before uncrewed flight.

Boeing:
Parachute testing continues, some sort of anomaly on last test.   A couple more tests still to do.
The pyro assemblies for separating crew module from service module have had unexpected fractures in testing, successfully performed their function but created some FOD.
The problem with the launch abort system was described as a harmonic resonance creating a water hammer effect, still working on fixes.

I have a bit more on the SpaceX parachute "anomalies". They are described as "not-previously observed" behaviour.  But the more important thing is that the behaviour was well within the allowed limits of the parachute system. Nor did the behaviour negatively impact the overal function of the parachute system.
I've got one contact at SpaceX describing it as "ASAP making a big fuss over nothing".

Or, as we Dutch say: Making an elephant out of a mosquito.

Regulars around this forum know of my opinion about ASAP. ASAP is TOO cautious in my opinion. IMO they would call for re-design of the spacecraft if someone would accidently stick a NASA logo sticker upside-down on the F9 first stage.

They also continue making problems of things that have long since been determined to be no problems. For example: at the recent ASAP meeting it was mentioned that Load-N-Go was still considered to be a safety issue. Well, it looks like ASAP didn't get the memo that NASA has approved Load-N-Go for CCP missions, after exhaustive investigation of the proprosed procedure. ASAP still considering Load-N-Go to be a safety issue is also contradictive to their own opening statement, saying that they haven't observed any decision making by NASA that would increase safety risks for CCP.

Also, IMO, ASAP is biased. They have been very critical of CCP with, until recently, almost no critique on the POR (SLS and Orion). A fine example was in yesterday's ASAP meeting. When discussing CCP the ASAP members demanded issues to be solved; the phrase "has to be solved" was used several times. However, when discussing Orion the ASAP members only suggested that issues should be solved. The phrase "We urge NASA to reconsider the design" was used.

I find it very strange that ASAP is much more insistent when addressing issues being the responsibility of the contractors, and ASAP being much less insistent when addressing issues being the responsibility of NASA. That spells "bias" to me.

I find the reporting from OIG and GAO (which also pay attention to safety aspects) much more balanced and un-biased.
Finally, I can't help but feeling that ASAP does not understand that "better" is the enemy of "good enough".
« Last Edit: 10/12/2018 12:44 pm by woods170 »

Offline Alexphysics

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1352 on: 10/12/2018 12:23 pm »
Commercial Crew discussion at ASAP meeting...

Still lots of verification work to be finished with both contractors.

SpaceX:
COPV failure investigation still not closed.
There have been unspecified anomalies observed with parachute testing and CRS parachutes.  Don't know how serious or if any design changes would be needed.  Stressed they think this should be resolved before uncrewed flight.

Boeing:
Parachute testing continues, some sort of anomaly on last test.   A couple more tests still to do.
The pyro assemblies for separating crew module from service module have had unexpected fractures in testing, successfully performed their function but created some FOD.
The problem with the launch abort system was described as a harmonic resonance creating a water hammer effect, still working on fixes.

I have a bit more on the SpaceX parachute "anomalies". They are described as "not-previously observed" behaviour.  But the more important thing is that the behaviour was well within the allowed limits of the parachute system. Nor did the behaviour negatively impact the overal function of the parachute system.
I've got one contact at SpaceX describing it as "ASAP making a big fuss over nothing".

Or, as we Dutch say: Making an elephant out of a mosquito.

Regulars around this forum know of my opinion about ASAP. ASAP is TOO cautious in my opinion. IMO they would call for re-design of the spacecraft if someone would accidently stick a NASA logo sticker upside-down on the F9 first stage.

They also continue making problems of things that have long since been determined to be no problems. For example: at the recent ASAP meeting it was mentioned that Load-N-Go was still considered to be a safety issue. Well, it looks like ASAP didn't get the memo that NASA has approved Load-N-Go for CCP missions, after exhaustive investigation of the proprosed procedure. ASAP still considering Load-N-Go to be a safety issue is also contradictive to their own opening statement, saying that they haven't observed any decision making by NASA that would increase safety risks for CCP.

Also, ASAP is biased. They have been very critical of CCP with, until recently, almost no critique on the POR (SLS and Orion). A fine example was in yesterday's ASAP meeting. When discussing CCP the ASAP members demanded issues to be solved; the phrase "must be solved" was used several times. However, when discussing Orion the ASAP members only suggested that issues should be solved. The phrase "We urge NASA to reconsider the design" was used.

I find it very strange that ASAP is much more insistent when addressing issues being the responsibility of the contractors, and ASAP being much less insistent when addressing issues being the responsibility of NASA. That spells "bias" to me.

I find the reporting from OIG and GAO (which also pay attention to safety aspects) much more balanced and un-biased.
Finally, I can't help but feeling that ASAP does not understand that "better" is the enemy of "good enough".

Something that impressed me from this meeting is how different the tone it was compared to the last meeting. On the last meeting it sounded like things were going better for both companies even if they had issues. This last one felt like they were seeing both companies were going through an apocalipse or something. How could that change in a matter of months?

Offline woods170

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1353 on: 10/12/2018 12:55 pm »
Commercial Crew discussion at ASAP meeting...

Still lots of verification work to be finished with both contractors.

SpaceX:
COPV failure investigation still not closed.
There have been unspecified anomalies observed with parachute testing and CRS parachutes.  Don't know how serious or if any design changes would be needed.  Stressed they think this should be resolved before uncrewed flight.

Boeing:
Parachute testing continues, some sort of anomaly on last test.   A couple more tests still to do.
The pyro assemblies for separating crew module from service module have had unexpected fractures in testing, successfully performed their function but created some FOD.
The problem with the launch abort system was described as a harmonic resonance creating a water hammer effect, still working on fixes.

I have a bit more on the SpaceX parachute "anomalies". They are described as "not-previously observed" behaviour.  But the more important thing is that the behaviour was well within the allowed limits of the parachute system. Nor did the behaviour negatively impact the overal function of the parachute system.
I've got one contact at SpaceX describing it as "ASAP making a big fuss over nothing".

Or, as we Dutch say: Making an elephant out of a mosquito.

Regulars around this forum know of my opinion about ASAP. ASAP is TOO cautious in my opinion. IMO they would call for re-design of the spacecraft if someone would accidently stick a NASA logo sticker upside-down on the F9 first stage.

They also continue making problems of things that have long since been determined to be no problems. For example: at the recent ASAP meeting it was mentioned that Load-N-Go was still considered to be a safety issue. Well, it looks like ASAP didn't get the memo that NASA has approved Load-N-Go for CCP missions, after exhaustive investigation of the proprosed procedure. ASAP still considering Load-N-Go to be a safety issue is also contradictive to their own opening statement, saying that they haven't observed any decision making by NASA that would increase safety risks for CCP.

Also, ASAP is biased. They have been very critical of CCP with, until recently, almost no critique on the POR (SLS and Orion). A fine example was in yesterday's ASAP meeting. When discussing CCP the ASAP members demanded issues to be solved; the phrase "must be solved" was used several times. However, when discussing Orion the ASAP members only suggested that issues should be solved. The phrase "We urge NASA to reconsider the design" was used.

I find it very strange that ASAP is much more insistent when addressing issues being the responsibility of the contractors, and ASAP being much less insistent when addressing issues being the responsibility of NASA. That spells "bias" to me.

I find the reporting from OIG and GAO (which also pay attention to safety aspects) much more balanced and un-biased.
Finally, I can't help but feeling that ASAP does not understand that "better" is the enemy of "good enough".

Something that impressed me from this meeting is how different the tone it was compared to the last meeting. On the last meeting it sounded like things were going better for both companies even if they had issues. This last one felt like they were seeing both companies were going through an apocalipse or something. How could that change in a matter of months?
Beats me. Unless the Soyuz MS-10 abort made a profound impression on them.


What really irked me, with regards to the comments made about the Crew Dragon parachute system, is that ASAP dragged in the Cargo Dragon parachute system. They managed to completely overlook the fact that that particular system has a 100% reliability score (14 for 14 for operational missions, 2 for 2 for demo missions and 10 for 10 for development tests)
But h*ll no. They were only focused on some (minor btw) anomaly and didn't stop short from suggesting that Crew Dragon should not fly crew unless the (minor) issue with the CRS/Crew Dragon parachute system is fixed.


Sheesh. By that attitude the ASAP members probably wouldn't step into a taxi if it wasn't yellow.


One problem here is that ASAP is overlooking the fact that the ultimate form of testing is flying the system in an operational environment.

Offline ncb1397

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1354 on: 10/12/2018 01:19 pm »
What really irked me, with regards to the comments made about the Crew Dragon parachute system, is that ASAP dragged in the Cargo Dragon parachute system. They managed to completely overlook the fact that that particular system has a 100% reliability score (14 for 14 for operational missions, 2 for 2 for demo missions and 10 for 10 for development tests)

Only 26 flights? The Shuttle TPS system worked on 111 flights with 100% success. That doesn't mean you ignore weird events like foam strikes.

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1355 on: 10/12/2018 03:28 pm »
What really irked me, with regards to the comments made about the Crew Dragon parachute system, is that ASAP dragged in the Cargo Dragon parachute system. They managed to completely overlook the fact that that particular system has a 100% reliability score (14 for 14 for operational missions, 2 for 2 for demo missions and 10 for 10 for development tests)

Only 26 flights? The Shuttle TPS system worked on 111 flights with 100% success. That doesn't mean you ignore weird events like foam strikes.

To woods170 point though, before the Shuttle flew there were many concerns about whether the tiles would fall off during ascent or decent, and the only way to know was to fly the vehicle - with no backups.

That was NASA then - a risk taker, though a calculated risk taker.

Today SpaceX has a lot of flight history on their parachutes, so it's not like there is NO data. Which is why it seems like ASAP is being not just overly cautious, but out of their way cautious - especially when compared to the known issues with the Orion parachutes.
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline ThereIWas3

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1356 on: 10/12/2018 04:17 pm »
Have there been any changes to personnel on the ASAP board?  Or their immediate management?

Offline HarryM

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1357 on: 10/12/2018 04:26 pm »
Maybe by NASA insisting that they add a 4th parachute they messed with what was already working fine with 3... ??? 

Online docmordrid

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1358 on: 10/12/2018 06:31 pm »
Down on the farm they had a saying; "If it ain't broke, don't fix it!" ASAP needs a good dose of Midwestern common sense.
DM

Offline Rik ISS-fan

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Re: Commercial Crew (CCtCAP) - Discussion Thread
« Reply #1359 on: 10/12/2018 07:23 pm »
I remember reading a couple of months back that SpaceX moved to another parachute system producer. There was one supplier providing the parachute system to all us providers. (Orion; Dragon 1 & 2 and Starliner). Only SpaceX had the resources/ flexibility to try to move to another provider. But that provider hasn't flight history.
So when a anomaly happens during a parachute system test, that's first and formost a good thing because that's the time to discover problems. Only time is required to improve the recovery system for Dragon 2.

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