Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 1

[A_M_Swallow]

Really? Is that true of SX too? My recollection was that SX did not plan to have their own astronaut on board and I assumed it was the same for Boeing.

The plan was for first test flights to be unmanned. The second flights are due to have test pilots. I assume the third guy will be on the second flight of the Starliner.

[cwr]

This morning's Wall Street Journal is reporting this change to Boeing's contract as an indication of a potential slip of the CFT into 2020.

"Thursday’s disclosure by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration suggests a previously planned two-person flight, slated for November 2018,  is now likely to occur in 2019 or 2020"

Chicken and egg

Is Boeing potentially delayed until 2020 to add on a third member and stay for a full six month rotation, or

Does NASA need Boeing to make their CFT into a full six month operational mission with at least one additional crew member because they are delayed into 2020 and past the time when Soyuz rides can be obtained to staff the ISS?

Is there a difference between this and skipping the CFT to go straight to the first Boeing USCV missions with one empty seat?

Remember the current CFT definition has a crew of:
1 Boeing test pilot
1 NASA Astronaut

I haven't read the text of the new contract but I don't know how the crew plan would be adjusted.

Carl

Really? Is that true of SX too? My recollection was that SX did not plan to have their own astronaut on board and I assumed it was the same for Boeing.

The commercial crew test plan for both Boeing and SpaceX was
a) an unmanned flight
b) a manned test flight. The Boeing manned test flight was with a Boeing test pilot and 1 NASA astronaut
     while SpaceX planned to have 2 NASA astronauts and no SpaceX astronaut.

If I remember correctly the ISS FPIP for the middle of February still showed this as the plan.

Carl

[yg1968]

Here is an article by Jeff Foust (nothing new but it is a good summary):
http://spacenews.com/nasa-studies-extending-boeing-commercial-crew-test-flight-to-support-iss/

[yg1968]

Another update:
https://spacepolicyonline.com/news/nasa-may-operationalize-boeings-commercial-crew-flight-test/

[su27k]

If both saw a "slow roll" of CC likely, perhaps those providers might act to mitigate financial risk (they aren't stupid about investing in things that won't happen) by withdrawing resources gradually, under the theory of a "head fake" shutdown of CC to let Orion resume its rightful place as the only American HSF vehicle, then close down ISS and deorbit? Some still have that wet dream.

I don't see SpaceX sit back and let ISS fail, it's still a major revenue source for them. I expect SpaceX to take action if they think they're being deliberately slowed down, this is not the first time someone tried to pull the "slow certification" trick on them.

[Space Ghost 1962]

If both saw a "slow roll" of CC likely, perhaps those providers might act to mitigate financial risk (they aren't stupid about investing in things that won't happen) by withdrawing resources gradually, under the theory of a "head fake" shutdown of CC to let Orion resume its rightful place as the only American HSF vehicle, then close down ISS and deorbit? Some still have that wet dream.

I don't see SpaceX sit back and let ISS fail, it's still a major revenue source for them.

Then they narrowly support existing contracts (CRS 2 is starting up) and anticipate that it will run extra long because lack of execution by idiots obsessed with getting agendas right means they take 5x the time/resources to do what they said they could do.

I expect SpaceX to take action if they think they're being deliberately slowed down, this is not the first time someone tried to pull the "slow certification" trick on them.

Of course. Musk's Silicon Valley (and SOMA) roots means he's got the best legal on the planet, so no doubt he'll get as much as can be gotten, especially since those inciting the root of this nonsense are stupid beyond belief and easy pickings for a crafty attorney.

But these responses are subtle and often hidden (for best effect).

(Musk doesn't need  NASA/Dragon/Falcon directly for Mars. The most overt SX can do is to fast march BFS (better name might be Super Dragon) so as to make all other efforts seem comical by comparison. Then top it off with BFR. As the economics of Block 5 (along with the gradual erosion of small payload frequent microlaunch) erode the payload landscape leaving mostly rare large payloads spread across 2 other launchers which are hopelessly more expensive to fly, then the divergence of cost structures means you either have providers with or without volume, so perhaps a Super Dragon flies as cheap or cheaper than Dragon.)

E.g. restructure the market. So ... you can continue to play with obtuse agendas if desired, but the cost to do so eventually becomes the limiting factor to achieving any mission goal.

Self rights itself. Eventually.

[RedLineTrain]

As I was reading Florida Today's article about the unexpected interest in CRS-14, it occurred to me that unmanned launches can also be a mass public event and that interest in SpaceX may not translate into interest in a NASA/Boeing manned launch.

Perhaps what SpaceX is doing with Falcon Heavy, BFS, and BFR (and Musk's 21 million Twitter followers from around the world) will overshadow the projects pursued with much less urgency.

[Coastal Ron]

As I was reading Florida Today's article about the unexpected interest in CRS-14, it occurred to me that unmanned launches can also be a mass public event and that interest in SpaceX may not translate into interest in a NASA/Boeing manned launch.

That is an interesting theory. We do know that Musk and SpaceX have a lot of followers, for a number of reasons, and it remains to be seen if Boeing (and ULA as the launch provider) can attract as many people - or make sure they know a crew launch is happening.

Perhaps what SpaceX is doing with Falcon Heavy, BFS, and BFR (and Musk's 21 million Twitter followers from around the world) will overshadow the projects pursued with much less urgency.

I think Boeing has as much urgency as SpaceX does for Commercial Crew, but SpaceX seems to cater to a bigger crowd of followers that care about space stuff.

Hopefully we'll be able to test out this theory later this year...

[rockets4life97]

If BFS does an orbital flight test (without crew) before Dragon 2 flies crew, I'll eat my hat.

[Steven Pietrobon]

If BFS does an orbital flight test (without crew) before Dragon 2 flies crew, I'll eat my hat.

Here's a recipe in case you lose. :-)

http://www.instructables.com/id/edible-party-hat/

[Endeavour_01]

This morning's Wall Street Journal is reporting this change to Boeing's contract as an indication of a potential slip of the CFT into 2020.

"Thursday’s disclosure by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration suggests a previously planned two-person flight, slated for November 2018,  is now likely to occur in 2019 or 2020"

I don't think the article is referring to a slip of the test flight to 2020. Certification is what may be delayed until 2020.

https://spacepolicyonline.com/news/nasa-may-operationalize-boeings-commercial-crew-flight-test/

Cristina Chaplain of the Government Accountability Office (GAO) reported that GAO’s most recent review of the program concluded that Crew Dragon and CST-100 Starliner are not likely to be certified* until December 2019 and January 2020 respectively.

*emphasis added

[erioladastra]

This morning's Wall Street Journal is reporting this change to Boeing's contract as an indication of a potential slip of the CFT into 2020.

"Thursday’s disclosure by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration suggests a previously planned two-person flight, slated for November 2018,  is now likely to occur in 2019 or 2020"

Chicken and egg

Is Boeing potentially delayed until 2020 to add on a third member and stay for a full six month rotation, or

Does NASA need Boeing to make their CFT into a full six month operational mission with at least one additional crew member because they are delayed into 2020 and past the time when Soyuz rides can be obtained to staff the ISS?

Is there a difference between this and skipping the CFT to go straight to the first Boeing USCV missions with one empty seat?

Remember the current CFT definition has a crew of:
1 Boeing test pilot
1 NASA Astronaut

I haven't read the text of the new contract but I don't know how the crew plan would be adjusted.

Carl

Really? Is that true of SX too? My recollection was that SX did not plan to have their own astronaut on board and I assumed it was the same for Boeing.

The commercial crew test plan for both Boeing and SpaceX was
a) an unmanned flight
b) a manned test flight. The Boeing manned test flight was with a Boeing test pilot and 1 NASA astronaut
     while SpaceX planned to have 2 NASA astronauts and no SpaceX astronaut.

If I remember correctly the ISS FPIP for the middle of February still showed this as the plan.

Carl

This morning's Wall Street Journal is reporting this change to Boeing's contract as an indication of a potential slip of the CFT into 2020.

"Thursday’s disclosure by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration suggests a previously planned two-person flight, slated for November 2018,  is now likely to occur in 2019 or 2020"

Chicken and egg

Is Boeing potentially delayed until 2020 to add on a third member and stay for a full six month rotation, or

Does NASA need Boeing to make their CFT into a full six month operational mission with at least one additional crew member because they are delayed into 2020 and past the time when Soyuz rides can be obtained to staff the ISS?

Is there a difference between this and skipping the CFT to go straight to the first Boeing USCV missions with one empty seat?

Remember the current CFT definition has a crew of:
1 Boeing test pilot
1 NASA Astronaut

I haven't read the text of the new contract but I don't know how the crew plan would be adjusted.

Carl

Really? Is that true of SX too? My recollection was that SX did not plan to have their own astronaut on board and I assumed it was the same for Boeing.

The commercial crew test plan for both Boeing and SpaceX was
a) an unmanned flight
b) a manned test flight. The Boeing manned test flight was with a Boeing test pilot and 1 NASA astronaut
     while SpaceX planned to have 2 NASA astronauts and no SpaceX astronaut.

If I remember correctly the ISS FPIP for the middle of February still showed this as the plan.

Carl

Really? Is that true of SX too? My recollection was that SX did not plan to have their own astronaut on board and I assumed it was the same for Boeing.

The plan was for first test flights to be unmanned. The second flights are due to have test pilots. I assume the third guy will be on the second flight of the Starliner.

No third person would be on CFT.

[TrevorMonty]

Space is hard and HSF even harder.  Orion is not alone when it comes to schedule slips both Dragon 2 and Starliner also suffer same problems.


Boeing and SpaceX aimed to fly their first human-rated spacecraft to the International Space Station in late 2016 and early 2017, with a goal of having both vehicles ready for operational missions by the end of 2017. But budget shortfalls from Congress, combined with technical hurdles encountered by both companies, delayed the test flights.

“In fact, final certification dates have slipped to the first quarter of calendar year 2019 and we found that the program’s own analysis indicates that certification is likely to slip into December 2019 for SpaceX and February 2020 for Boeing,” said Cristina Chaplain, a senior manager at the Government Accountability Office, during a congressional hearing in January.

[A_M_Swallow]

{snip}

Really? Is that true of SX too? My recollection was that SX did not plan to have their own astronaut on board and I assumed it was the same for Boeing.

The plan was for first test flights to be unmanned. The second flights are due to have test pilots. I assume the third guy will be on the second flight of the Starliner.

No third person would be on CFT.

Unfortunately putting a third person on the CFT is the new plan.

From SPACEPOLICYONLINE.COM
https://spacepolicyonline.com/news/nasa-may-operationalize-boeings-commercial-crew-flight-test

NASA May Operationalize Boeing’s Commercial Crew Flight Test – UPDATED
By Marcia Smith | Posted: April 5

"NASA revealed today that it has modified its commercial crew contract with Boeing to provide “flexibility” to use the crew flight test of Boeing’s CST-100 Starliner system essentially as an operational mission.  Instead of two crew members there could be three and a six-month mission instead of two weeks."

[Joachim]

I want to display the crew seating arrangement for Starliner.
I discovered the attached graphic. Is it larger available or is there a better graphic?
And most important: Were are the CDR and the PLT seating?

[vp.]

If NASA made the choice today, could astronauts be sent with Orion on ISS in 2019 (with a Delta launcher ?), to fill the delays of the Dragon and Starliner ships?

[Svetoslav]

If NASA made the choice today, could astronauts be sent with Orion on ISS in 2019 (with a Delta launcher ?), to fill the delays of the Dragon and Starliner ships?

Short answer: No.

Long answer: The Atlas vehicles for the first two Starliner missions have already been produced, vehicles have almost been built, the ground infrastructure is ready to support human Starliner missions.

It will take more efforts to prepare everything for a human mission to LEO aboard Orion.

[rliebman]

maybe i am missing something here - i only count seating for 5.  my recollection was 6 was the design target.

[gongora]

If NASA made the choice today, could astronauts be sent with Orion on ISS in 2019 (with a Delta launcher ?), to fill the delays of the Dragon and Starliner ships?

Orion is not ahead of the Commercial Crew vehicles, launcher is irrelevant.

[Jim]

I want to display the crew seating arrangement for Starliner.
I discovered the attached graphic. Is it larger available or is there a better graphic?
And most important: Were are the CDR and the PLT seating?

There is no "CDR" and "PLT" designations.  The position with the control panel is the upper right seat.