Author Topic: AvWeek reporting 9(!) new SpaceX contracts, 2-3 Heavies (Read 35852 times)

Stellvia · « **on:** 09/09/2014 03:24 pm »

Quote

SpaceX closed 9 deals, w/possible 2-3 heavies. Four more in the next few weeks, incl one non-GEO, then maybe 4 more before end of the year.

-- https://twitter.com/AvWeekParis/status/509358113716449280

Not sure where to put this, so I thought I'd start a new thread

meekGee · « **Reply #1 on:** 09/09/2014 03:30 pm »

Do contracts close with such immediate terms? Or are these contracts that were simply previously confidential and only announced today?

moralec · « **Reply #2 on:** 09/09/2014 03:31 pm »

8 new flights for this year?

ugordan · « **Reply #3 on:** 09/09/2014 03:34 pm »

Quote from: moralec on 09/09/2014 03:31 pm

8 new flights for this year?

Deals, not flights...

Stellvia · « **Reply #4 on:** 09/09/2014 03:35 pm »

Quote from: moralec on 09/09/2014 03:31 pm

8 new flights for this year?

I read that as 8 more *contracts*

So, 17 new contracts. Makes Arianespace's announcement of five look a bit sad, doesn't it

Do they need the additional capacity of Brownsville? Yes, yes they do...

moralec · « **Reply #5 on:** 09/09/2014 03:41 pm »

Sorry for jumping to that dumb conclusion. Anyway, the obvious question to ask is: how many new flights do you think they may need to add to their 2014 manifest to satisfy these new contracts?

wannamoonbase · « **Reply #6 on:** 09/09/2014 03:42 pm »

Quote from: Stellvia on 09/09/2014 03:35 pm

Quote from: moralec on 09/09/2014 03:31 pm
8 new flights for this year?

I read that as 8 more *contracts*

So, 17 new contracts. Makes Arianespace's announcement of five look a bit sad, doesn't it

Do they need the additional capacity of Brownsville? Yes, yes they do...

Don't get to far ahead of things.
Firstly, what is the time frame of the 17 contracts?
Second, they'll have 4 pads between KSC, CCAFS, VAFB and Brownsville. Lots of capacity there.
Third, Brownsville is allowed 12 launches per year currently, but if they prove to be a good neighbor and need additional capacity then increasing the limit of 12.

meekGee · « **Reply #7 on:** 09/09/2014 03:47 pm »

That's what I expected, but then it read differently... Phrasing!

Lars_J · « **Reply #8 on:** 09/09/2014 04:03 pm »

Quote from: moralec on 09/09/2014 03:41 pm

Sorry for jumping to that dumb conclusion. Anyway, the obvious question to ask is: how many new flights do you think they may need to add to their 2014 manifest to satisfy these new contracts?

If the contracts were just signed, there is no chance that the satellites would be even close to be built, tested, and ready for launch. These launches won't be happening until 2016 at the earliest, I would think.

moralec · « **Reply #9 on:** 09/09/2014 04:13 pm »

Quote from: Lars_J on 09/09/2014 04:03 pm

Quote from: moralec on 09/09/2014 03:41 pm
Sorry for jumping to that dumb conclusion. Anyway, the obvious question to ask is: how many new flights do you think they may need to add to their 2014 manifest to satisfy these new contracts?

If the contracts were just signed, there is no chance that the satellites would be even close to be built, tested, and ready for launch. These launches won't be happening until 2016 at the earliest, I would think.

Makes sense. Thank you!!

AncientU · « **Reply #10 on:** 09/09/2014 04:40 pm »

Quote from: Stellvia on 09/09/2014 03:24 pm

Quote
SpaceX closed 9 deals, w/possible 2-3 heavies. Four more in the next few weeks, incl one non-GEO, then maybe 4 more before end of the year.

-- https://twitter.com/AvWeekParis/status/509358113716449280

Not sure where to put this, so I thought I'd start a new thread

Timing makes sense in light of seven successful v1.1 flights in last 12 months. Questions about launch rates and reliability are being put to rest. Suspect that insurance rates are falling, too.

Space Ghost 1962 · « **Reply #11 on:** 09/09/2014 04:47 pm »

Its interesting to compare ALL launch services providers NEW contracts right now.

It tells you a bit about how the market is changing.

Those for SpaceX are about speed/cost to space. Those about ULA are about assurance/performance in some form. Those about Ariane are about full service.

Nothing yet about reusability. Nothing yet about unreliability (Proton/Soyuz US). Nothing about institutional payloads under cost pressure. Possibly cadence soon.

Those are on the the list of what's to appear as market forces. "May you live in interesting times"

TrevorMonty · « **Reply #12 on:** 09/09/2014 06:15 pm »

With 7 successful 9v1.1 flights and recent proof that they can deliver a 21day turn around between launches, expect a lot more of these contracts.

Robotbeat · « **Reply #13 on:** 09/09/2014 06:43 pm »

And here I thought SpaceX was starting to nibble down their manifest.

Maybe SpaceX will always have a growing backlog, with new customers signing up faster than their ever-increasing launch rate... At some point, that'd require substantial market elasticity. Well, I hope so, anyway.

Also, there may be a noticeable uptick in diabetes rates due to all the Kool-Aid consumption...

Chris Bergin · « **Reply #14 on:** 09/09/2014 06:45 pm »

Quote from: Stellvia on 09/09/2014 03:24 pm

Not sure where to put this, so I thought I'd start a new thread

Yep, right idea. We'll set up specific threads when we know which ones. This is all coming from Ms. Shotwell's speech in Paris it seems.

Marslauncher · « **Reply #15 on:** 09/09/2014 06:55 pm »

Have been searching the intergoogles for a possible video... nothing yet... still searching.

FutureSpaceTourist · « **Reply #16 on:** 09/09/2014 07:10 pm »

Do we have a thread for Arianespace orders? Their comment the other day about retaining 60% of the market (2014 orders?) seems a little premature!

Edit: typo

Space Ghost 1962 · « **Reply #17 on:** 09/09/2014 07:20 pm »

Quote from: Robotbeat on 09/09/2014 06:43 pm

And here I thought SpaceX was starting to nibble down their manifest.

Hardly. It's starting to get interesting. After many boring years.

Quote from: Robotbeat on 09/09/2014 06:43 pm

Maybe SpaceX will always have a growing backlog, with new customers signing up faster than their ever-increasing launch rate... At some point, that'd require substantial market elasticity. Well, I hope so, anyway.

It's market turbulence. Expect things to shift between, not more. Might be a few more, but that's not really an increase just getting ahead to ride a hypothetical wave ...

Quote from: Robotbeat on 09/09/2014 06:43 pm

Also, there may be a noticeable uptick in diabetes rates due to all the Kool-Aid consumption...

Or worse. Lloyd Bridges (que mas macho!) in "Airplane!".

Right now watch the steady progression of providers. My pick of winners will be based next on cadence maintained - watch this. We'll see.

edkyle99 · « **Reply #18 on:** 09/09/2014 07:36 pm »

Quote from: FutureSpaceTourist on 09/09/2014 07:10 pm

Do we have a thread for Arianespace orders? They're comment the other day about retaining 60% of the market (2014 orders?) seems a little premature!

They announced ~~five~~ six new orders at the Paris conference after cutting prices, according to SFN, so Arianespace retains a healthy market share. ILS and Sea Launch seem to be in decline at present by comparison.

- Ed Kyle

JasonAW3 · « **Reply #19 on:** 09/09/2014 08:22 pm »

Quote from: Lars_J on 09/09/2014 04:03 pm

Quote from: moralec on 09/09/2014 03:41 pm
Sorry for jumping to that dumb conclusion. Anyway, the obvious question to ask is: how many new flights do you think they may need to add to their 2014 manifest to satisfy these new contracts?

If the contracts were just signed, there is no chance that the satellites would be even close to be built, tested, and ready for launch. These launches won't be happening until 2016 at the earliest, I would think.

There's also the possibility that the sats are already built, with the intent of launching with a certain competitor, who now looks like they might have an issue with getting things up. Into space, that is...