Commercial Spaceflight Mission Firsts

[oiorionsbelt]

Up until now Spaceflight has been primarily the purview of Governments. Recently commercial entities have been making inroads into spaceflight but to my knowledge they have not done anything that has not been done previously by governments.
 What do members see as the initial firsts, to be done by commercial entities?
Who will do it?
When will they do it?
My thought is Mars Sample Return by SpaceX by 2018

[Robert Thompson]

SpaceX, unmanned lunar free return, NET 2020. Manned 2025.

They have the punk of Apollo, minus the bucks of Apollo, minus the wizened gremlin whack-a-mole of the assured launch mic.

Nevermind. You appear to mean firsts in class of action, itself, not class of participant.

[edkyle99]

Up until now Spaceflight has been primarily the purview of Governments. Recently commercial entities have been making inroads into spaceflight but to my knowledge they have not done anything that has not been done previously by governments.
 What do members see as the initial firsts, to be done by commercial entities?
Who will do it?
When will they do it?

My guesses would be:
1.  Commercial satellite refueling.
2.  Commercial space junk safing or de-orbiting.

These offer the potential, in theory at least, of profit. 

 - Ed Kyle

[Lar]

My guess would be reuse of a liquid fueled first stage with only checkout and replacing consumables, no refurbishment, will be the first first.  I think it will be by YE 2016.

[oiorionsbelt]

My guess would be reuse of a liquid fueled first stage with only checkout and replacing consumables, no refurbishment, will be the first first.  I think it will be by YE 2016.

yes I completely forgot about about reuse. But that's not really spaceflight. I was thinking more from a missions perspective.

[oiorionsbelt]

My guesses would be:
1.  Commercial satellite refueling.
2.  Commercial space junk safing or de-orbiting.

These offer the potential, in theory at least, of profit. 

 - Ed Kyle

Ed, who do you see as pursuing those goals?

[Lar]

My guess would be reuse of a liquid fueled first stage with only checkout and replacing consumables, no refurbishment, will be the first first.  I think it will be by YE 2016.

yes I completely forgot about about reuse. But that's not really spaceflight. I was thinking more from a missions perspective.

Not really spaceflight?  Hmph. 

Well you may want to change the thread title to make it more mission centric.

[QuantumG]

The first US entity to land an unmanned rover on the Moon may well be commercial.

[oiorionsbelt]

My guess would be reuse of a liquid fueled first stage with only checkout and replacing consumables, no refurbishment, will be the first first.  I think it will be by YE 2016.

yes I completely forgot about about reuse. But that's not really spaceflight. I was thinking more from a missions perspective.

Not really spaceflight?  Hmph. 

Well you may want to change the thread title to make it more mission centric.

F9 1st stage doesn't even go suborbital, no? I changed the title

[Avron]

SpaceX, unmanned lunar free return, NET 2020. Manned 2025.

They have the punk of Apollo, minus the bucks of Apollo, minus the wizened gremlin whack-a-mole of the assured launch mic.

Nevermind. You appear to mean firsts in class of action, itself, not class of participant.

I would be looking at 2017 for lunar free return from spx

[Lar]

F9 1st stage doesn't even go suborbital, no? I changed the title

I think it depends on your definition, in some mission profiles it gets pretty far up there, farther than some sounding rockets.

But ok...  my next guess is
...
 reuse of a liquid fueled SECOND stage with only checkout and replacing consumables, no refurbishment, will be (among) the first first(s).  I think it will be by YE 2018.

[oiorionsbelt]

The first US entity to land an unmanned rover on the Moon may well be commercial.

lunokhod beat them though.

[oiorionsbelt]

I would be looking at 2017 for lunar free return from spx

Didn't Apollo 13 use a Lunar free trajectory return?

[Lar]

I would be looking at 2017 for lunar free return from spx

Didn't Apollo 13 use a Lunar free trajectory return?

That wasn't the original plan. But good point.

[QuantumG]

I would be looking at 2017 for lunar free return from spx

Didn't Apollo 13 use a Lunar free trajectory return?

That wasn't the original plan. But good point.

and Zond 4 did it first.

[Lar]

I would be looking at 2017 for lunar free return from spx

Didn't Apollo 13 use a Lunar free trajectory return?

That wasn't the original plan. But good point.

and Zond 4 did it first.

The moon feels fairly ruled out of most flags and footprints things no? something more exploitative would be a first.. ISRU? Polar ice?

I could see a man tended station being done commercially first, we haven't had one of those, I don't count intermittent habitation.

Or maybe something asteroidal?

[QuantumG]

The moon feels fairly ruled out of most flags and footprints things no? something more exploitative would be a first.. ISRU? Polar ice?

Or just be more specific: first HD lunar camera. First remote control of a lunar rover by the general public. Stuff like that.

[edkyle99]

My guesses would be:
1.  Commercial satellite refueling.
2.  Commercial space junk safing or de-orbiting.

These offer the potential, in theory at least, of profit. 

 - Ed Kyle

Ed, who do you see as pursuing those goals?

MDA and ViviSat were two companies discussed in recent years as working on concepts.  Intelsat is a potential customer identified to use the MDA refueling satellite.  Ultimately comsat operators and insurers will have to drive this market, if there is to be a market.

 - Ed Kyle

[411rocket]

The moon feels fairly ruled out of most flags and footprints things no? something more exploitative would be a first.. ISRU? Polar ice?

I could see a man tended station being done commercially first, we haven't had one of those, I don't count intermittent habitation.

Complete with Advertising Banner or Billboard.  After all, you need to mark your turf, or regolith in this case.

[Lar]

Complete with Advertising Banner or Billboard.  After all, you need to mark your turf, or regolith in this case.

Right. It's in the treaties, after all.

[jtrame]

The first US entity to land an unmanned rover on the Moon may well be commercial.

lunokhod beat them though.

Couldn't be first with lunar manned rover either, heh,heh, that's been done.  But could be first with manned Mars rover.

[oiorionsbelt]

The first US entity to land an unmanned rover on the Moon may well be commercial.

lunokhod beat them though.

Couldn't be first with lunar manned rover either, heh,heh, that's been done.  But could be first with manned Mars rover.

True, but they would have already done a bunch of other firsts long before they got in the rover

[cryptoanarchy]

First reusable first stage. (Spacex soon we hope)
First use of lunar water. (Nobody in mind)
First Martian sample return (red dragon with tiny return rocket)
First ssto. (Spacex could do this now for show small payload, not reusable)
First space tug

[John Charles]

Or just be more specific: first HD lunar camera. First remote control of a lunar rover by the general public. Stuff like that.

Didn't the Japanese lunar satellite already provide lunar HD from orbit? Maybe you meant "from the surface"? It's a matter of degrees, isn't it?

[Lar]

First reusable first stage. (Spacex soon we hope)

Shuttle did this. [1]... see above, I already tried this claim, you have to narrow it some to get it past some folks here [2]

1 - the SRBs were reusable, if you count those as stage 1, or if you count them as stage 0, the orbiter is reusable, and don't quibble about the drop tank please
2 - when I narrowed it, they said it wasn't spaceflight!!! because the stage didn't go high enough... some people!!!   ... good thing this is all in fun

[oiorionsbelt]

First reusable first stage. (Spacex soon we hope)

Shuttle did this. [1]... see above, I already tried this claim, you have to narrow it some to get it past some folks here [2]

1 - the SRBs were reusable, if you count those as stage 1, or if you count them as stage 0, the orbiter is reusable, and don't quibble about the drop tank please
2 - when I narrowed it, they said it wasn't spaceflight!!! because the stage didn't go high enough... some people!!!   ... good thing this is all in fun

Haha yep, Spaceflight in this instance refers to vehicles that operate in space. Mission firsts, means that the vehicle, operating in Space, does something that no other government vehicle has ever done.
 
MSR is valid, 1st stage reuse is not. 2nd stage reuse is marginal but OK

 The intent was to try to envision the first mission, that when done by a commercial entity, would change the general public perception of space exploration. As it is today I believe most would say only governments have the resources for anything beyond comsats.