Author Topic: Commercial Crew Downselect (Read 78368 times)

Proponent · « **Reply #80 on:** 08/28/2014 08:24 am »

Taking poll results thus far at face value, they imply a 71.3% chance that SNC will win a major contract. Boeing's and SpaceX's chances are only 26.9% and 28.7%, respectively. I know people like Dream Chaser, but it still seems an outside shot to me. But then, I think it's Dragon V2 that's got cool factor. I mean, I know people like DC's wings and wheels, but I think that's soooo twentieth-century: I'd rather have a rocket-powered landing.

MP99 · « **Reply #81 on:** 08/28/2014 08:29 am »

Quote from: Ike17055 on 08/27/2014 11:27 pm

Adding rendezvous capability to a vehicle that had to be berthed previously adds a lot.

I wonder if the current Dragon may perform some rendezvous tests as part of a CRS mission?

Didn't Gemini do something similar to a target on its upper stage?

It wouldn't even need to make contact (which would put the CBM at risk), but just demonstrate similar manoeuvres.

But, how different is it to dock rather than berth? Dragon already stages through the keep-out sphere, performs station keeping within feet of ISS, etc.

Cheers, Martin

Chris Bergin · « **Reply #82 on:** 08/28/2014 09:31 am »

I voted SpaceX and SNC, because I think that would work very well. Very interesting and capable capsule and a very interesting and capable space plane.

What's not to love?

obi-wan · « **Reply #83 on:** 08/28/2014 05:24 pm »

I voted Boeing and SNC as what I think will happen, not what I want to happen.

A friend of mine who was a program manager at DARPA remarked a few years ago, "Boeing excels at separating the government from its money." (Boeing eventually went 300% over budget on his project.) With their hordes of lobbyists and protectors on Capital Hill, I can't conceive of them not getting an award.

There aren't many Apollo veterans at NASA any more, but there are a lot of Shuttle people who would like to be "vindicated" by seeing continued horizontal landings at runways. Also, SNC has been hitting every hot-button issue they can in the run-up to the decision. They'll get an award.

Personally, I think SpaceX is the best hope for expanding human space flight in my lifetime. Having said that, I hear a lot of feedback from people I know at NASA that they really detest SpaceX. It's not hat they're incompetent or unsafe, just that they're doing things differently. As one NASA person told me,"We like to deal with people we're used to dealing with."

(And let me say, parenthetically,that I don't believe Elon (or SNC, for that matter) will be able to continue development to operational status of their vehicles without NASA as "anchor tenant". We're talking a lot of money without a near-term return on investment, and there's a limit to even Elon's bank account.)

Hope I'm wrong!!!

DaveH62 · « **Reply #84 on:** 08/29/2014 02:33 am »

I voted SpaceX and Boeing, thinking SpaceX is farthest along, but that Boeing would be picked as a safe political hedge to keep the program alive long term. I hope I'm wrong, and that SNC gets secondary funding. Seeing that Boeing has already tipped it's hand and won't fund for a day after losing the contract shows their commitment.
If SpaceX got 60%, we can stay on track for a 2017 launch, and if SNC can get 30-40%, with their International partners, they could be as well funded as SpaceX. It gives platform diversity, and competition to contain costs and risk going forward. The least likely combination would seem to be SNC and Boeing, especially with the deteriorating situation in the Ukraine. If Blue Origin could get 5%, just to maintain engagement, it would help fulfill the secondary goal of the seeding the commercial space industry.
In a best case scenario, we could have 2 or even 3 private manned space providers in the 2020's. With competition and divergent providers, we could see more innovation in the next 10 years than we have seen in the last 40.

Proponent · « **Reply #85 on:** 08/29/2014 04:45 am »

With 299 votes cast, we are collectively about 90% sure that there will be precisely two major awards. How can we possibly be that sure?

sdsds · « **Reply #86 on:** 08/29/2014 04:50 am »

Quote from: Proponent on 08/29/2014 04:45 am

With 299 votes cast, we are collectively about 90% sure that there will be precisely two major awards. How can we possibly be that sure?

Or is it that we're 90% sure that two major awards is the most likely outcome?

kerlc · « **Reply #87 on:** 08/29/2014 09:42 am »

Quote from: Proponent on 08/29/2014 04:45 am

With 299 votes cast, we are collectively about 90% sure that there will be precisely two major awards. How can we possibly be that sure?

Optimism mixed with a certain degree of caution?

yg1968 · « **Reply #88 on:** 08/29/2014 05:29 pm »

Quote from: sdsds on 08/29/2014 04:50 am

Quote from: Proponent on 08/29/2014 04:45 am
With 299 votes cast, we are collectively about 90% sure that there will be precisely two major awards. How can we possibly be that sure?

Or is it that we're 90% sure that two major awards is the most likely outcome?

We are not sure but that is the rumor which has been posted by Charles Lurio and Chris among others. NASA has also repeatedly said that they would like to have more than one.

Quote

With an announcement now expected in September, a likely scenario would see two spacecraft winning through to the CCtCAP stage.

http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2014/08/dragon-v2-rely-parachutes-landing/

Altonity · « **Reply #89 on:** 08/29/2014 07:47 pm »

I voted for SpaceX and Boeing combination. I would love to see Dreamchaser fly but I think more traditional approach will win. I hope I am wrong and Dreamchaser will get to fly. I just think it is unlikely.

FutureSpaceTourist · « **Reply #90 on:** 08/29/2014 08:10 pm »

I used to think SpaceX and Boeing but recently I've changed to SpaceX and SNC.

As others have said, SNC have made significant progress with partners and have thus strengthened their commercial case, plus I imagine are committing a more significant proportion of their own money (in comparison to Boeing).

I also think SNC will get to the end quicker than Boeing. Given the current political situation I think that's significant (ie getting away from reliance on Soyuz ASAP) but I don't know to what extent that could have been reflected in NASA's evaluation criteria.

Edit: corrected typo

JasonAW3 · « **Reply #91 on:** 08/29/2014 08:40 pm »

Quote from: FutureSpaceTourist on 08/29/2014 08:10 pm

I used to think SpaceX and Boeing but recently I've changed to SpaceX and SNC.

As others have said, SNC have made significant progress with partners and have thus strengthened their commercial case, plus I imagine are committing a more significant proportion of their own money (in comparison to Boeing).

I also think SNC will get to the end quicker than Boeing. Given the current political situation I think that's significant (ie getting away from reliance on Soyuz ASAP) but I don't know to what extent that could have been reflected in NASA's evaluation criteria.

Edit: corrected typo

SNC is actually playing it pretty smart. If there is a particular expertise they need, they find a company that does that and purchases it. If they can't buy the company, they farm the particular tech that they need developed out to another, larger company.

This works for them on two major levels. First, itgains them the expertise that tehy need to accomplish their goals, and two, should they NOT be in the Manned Commercial Craft downselect, they will be in a position to work with whomever is selected and STILL work on their own craft for purely commercial use.

TrevorMonty · « **Reply #92 on:** 08/30/2014 12:41 am »

There has been a few comments on Boeing using its political influence to help it's selection. SNC method of building partnerships as created a lot of businesses through out US relying on DC being selected. Because of this SNC should have a lot more politicians on its side compared to Boeing.

mr. mark · « **Reply #93 on:** 08/30/2014 12:49 am »

I have serious doubts about SNC meeting a "real" physical deadline. Such as flying a finished product by 2017. If it's SpaceX and SNC, SpaceX might get some serious flying time in before Dream Chaser is deemed ready. Especially now that Dragon V.2 is planning on land landings with parachutes and powered assist. A more realistic timeline for Dream Chaser is probably 2018 or 2019.

SoundForesight · « **Reply #94 on:** 08/30/2014 08:14 am »

So, what happens if...
(1) One of the companies that isn't selected disputes the award?

(2) NASA approves two companies, but congress passes the appropriations bill with the amendment that limits the award to one company?

(3) Congress only passes a continuing resolution, instead of appropriations bill?

(4) The house shuts down the government over the budget?

Rocket Science · « **Reply #95 on:** 08/30/2014 11:44 am »

Quote from: SoundForesight on 08/30/2014 08:14 am

So, what happens if...
(1) One of the companies that isn't selected disputes the award?

(2) NASA approves two companies, but congress passes the appropriations bill with the amendment that limits the award to one company?

(3) Congress only passes a continuing resolution, instead of appropriations bill?

(4) The house shuts down the government over the budget?

Welcome to the forum!

Good questions, but how did you vote?

qralt · « **Reply #96 on:** 08/30/2014 01:01 pm »

Hard choices. I went back and looked at each of the CCiCAP milestones to get an idea of what SNC, Spacex, and Boeing have all done (or are going to do) so far. I was kind of shocked at how different the three approaches are, but I have no idea how the milestones are negotiated. It seems to me that Boeing has less skin in the game than the other two competitors, but kudos for them to negotiate it that way. Seems like SNC was hamstrung with half an award last time, so I wonder if they can really compete at this point. If Spacex had met the dates on all of their milestones, it seems like they would be the hands down winner for this next phase.

If I had to pick, I'd pick Spacex, solo award. I think that gets us there quickest. Which I think is desirable given the state of Russian relations now. I just don't believe this can happen given the politics involved. So there has to be another award...seems likely to be Boeing, but I'll stick with "other".

So Spacex + "other".

ElGuapoGuano1 · « **Reply #97 on:** 08/30/2014 01:09 pm »

I voted with my heart and hopefully my head as well.
Space-X and SNC.
With the lease granted on 39a and the demonstrated ability with Dragon V1, not to mention non reliance on the RD-180. It would be crazy if Space-X is not selected. (but since it is a Government contract, anything can happen)
SNC with their partnerships and NASA legacy design, have a lot of expertise and data to back it up. Despite a landing gear malfunction, and a possible engine swap IMHO appear to have a solid chance.
Boeing on the other hand; set the bar on their milestones pretty low, haven't shown much actual hardware, and unlike the others, have zero skin in the game.
Hoping the announcement happens soon, the anticipation is killing me. Fingers crossed I'm right with my prediction. Space-X and SNC need this contract. Despite both saying they will move forward even if they lose, No Bucks, No Buck Rogers...

Star One · « **Reply #98 on:** 08/30/2014 02:15 pm »

I would like to see both SNC & Space X to win in this competition as they seem to have invested more into their projects than Boeing appear to have. I can't help feeling would Boeing even notice as an organisation if they lost out. I suppose I've chosen on who I think is more committed to this competition and I've been particularly impressed by SNC in this respect from seeking out external partner organisations to investing in an Atlas V for an initial launch.

SoundForesight · « **Reply #99 on:** 08/30/2014 03:50 pm »

I voted SNC & SpaceX, but more with attitutde of what I think should be done, rather than what NASA will do--I have no insight into NASA's thought process.

(1) For two different orbital vehicle concepts, and

(2) For two different launch vehicles.

I feel more strongly about having two awards (vs. one) for the benefit of avoiding downtime (as much as possible) due to an accident or incident.

I'm not convinced that a partial award will benefit either company that would get it, since I suspect they need full funding to continue development.

And while SNC may have international partners, the discussion is about their useable technologies, not funding.

Poll

Which companies will receive major funded CCtCap awards?

Author Topic: Commercial Crew Downselect (Read 78368 times)