Author Topic: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser  (Read 87050 times)

Offline clongton

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #140 on: 09/16/2014 11:42 AM »
How about this?
Only one CCtCap award and that goes to Boeing or Sierra Nevada.
SpaceX as the clear fronrunner gets a contract outside CCtCap limitations for fasttracking crew to the ISS? Conceivable?
No, not conceivable.  It's illegal for NASA to give SpaceX an uncompeted award.  CCtCap was a competition open to anyone who wanted to bid.

Simple. NASA puts out a separate Request for Bid for emergency crewed access to the ISS with a crewed demonstration flight to ISS 12 months from the date of the award. Everybody that wants to gets to take a shot at it.
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Online Jarnis

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #141 on: 09/16/2014 11:50 AM »
How about this?
Only one CCtCap award and that goes to Boeing or Sierra Nevada.
SpaceX as the clear fronrunner gets a contract outside CCtCap limitations for fasttracking crew to the ISS? Conceivable?
No, not conceivable.  It's illegal for NASA to give SpaceX an uncompeted award.  CCtCap was a competition open to anyone who wanted to bid.

Simple. NASA puts out a separate Request for Bid for emergency crewed access to the ISS with a crewed demonstration flight to ISS 12 months from the date of the award. Everybody that wants to gets to take a shot at it.

...and funds it exactly how...?

Sorry, not plausible.

Online AnalogMan

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #142 on: 09/16/2014 01:22 PM »
Crew Transportation Announcement Today
Posted on September 16, 2014 at 9:08 am by commercial-crew-program.

NASA will make a major announcement today at 4 p.m. EDT regarding the return of human spaceflight launches to the United States. Whoever is chosen will have the goal to achieve certification of the system – including a test flight to the International Space Station with a NASA astronaut — in 2017, returning a critical capability to America and greatly expanding the scientific research potential of the orbiting laboratory. Watch the announcement live on NASA TV at www.nasa.gov/ntv and find out details throughout the day on the Commercial Crew Program blog.

http://blogs.nasa.gov/commercialcrew/2014/09/16/crew-transportation-announcement-today/
« Last Edit: 09/16/2014 01:22 PM by AnalogMan »

Offline Darkseraph

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #143 on: 09/16/2014 09:15 PM »
Wow...so that turned as I expected and not as all the polls on various Space websites thought...:)
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." R.P.Feynman

Offline Silmfeanor

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #144 on: 09/16/2014 09:19 PM »
Wow...so that turned as I expected and not as all the polls on various Space websites thought...:)

I don't know if that warrants a smiley. But let's keep this discussion on-topic; what will happen to SNC now?
Various predictions seen across the 2 threads discussing / updates on the rewards:

-SNC will have the option to bid later on, after initial service contracts are up for renewal
-SNC will continue to work on Dream Chaser on a slower pace
-and that might end in final cancellation after a drawn-out battle. Or not.

What seems likely?

Online abaddon

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #145 on: 09/16/2014 09:22 PM »
SNC would have to be certified first before they could bid on flights in the next contract.  It seems unlikely NASA would want to pay for that certification if SpaceX and Boeing are both certified already.

There's always a chance one of SpaceX or Boeing falters and has to be replaced as with Orbital in COTS but that seems extremely unlikely.

Offline Robert Thompson

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #146 on: 09/16/2014 09:30 PM »
It was a dream and they chased the dream and everyone woke up and an LEO human commercial market does not yet exist and commercial nanosat market is getting covered by smaller suborbital vehicles. So it's got to hibernate, cryogenically, and suffer institutional brain drain, until such time as Bigelow-type inflatable HSF commercial market can be glancingly supposed to exist. With the Boeing announcement, I'd put that at 20 years. Capsules are robust, like an individual unicellular organism, or a TCPIP packet, and cannot be the extent, indefinitely, of a robust LEO infrastructure, which distributes risk over an ensemble of less individually robust commuter vehicles. A space plane's day will come. imo

Offline Nibb31

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #147 on: 09/16/2014 09:55 PM »
A space plane's day will come. imo

DreamChaser is not a space plane. It's a capsule with a slightly higher L/D ratio that launches on a freaking Atlas V.

Offline Robert Thompson

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #148 on: 09/16/2014 10:42 PM »
Hi, poster from France. I agree to your granular semantic.  :)

I cannot locate any news items concerning Dream Chaser's understanding with ESA and DLR later than January 8 this year. For example,
http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2014/01/dream-chasers-european-deal-opens-ambitions/
"The cooperative understanding between ESA and Sierra Nevada extends through early 2015, Winters said."

Do you know if DC is going to have its development funded by ESA or DLR? If DC did get picked up it'd be great. The numbers that just got awarded could indicate that the remaining development cost for DC is substantial. Any info on that?
« Last Edit: 09/16/2014 10:49 PM by Chris Bergin »

Offline Darkseraph

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #149 on: 09/16/2014 10:52 PM »
Wow...so that turned as I expected and not as all the polls on various Space websites thought...:)

I don't know if that warrants a smiley. But let's keep this discussion on-topic; what will happen to SNC now?
Various predictions seen across the 2 threads discussing / updates on the rewards:

-SNC will have the option to bid later on, after initial service contracts are up for renewal
-SNC will continue to work on Dream Chaser on a slower pace
-and that might end in final cancellation after a drawn-out battle. Or not.

What seems likely?

Oh, I means Boeing is a kind of boring choice, but it sounded like the more likely one. Most people were stridently predicting SpaceX and SNC because that's who they wanted to see win rather than what was actually likely. I feel good to have gone with my head instead of my heart in predictions.

I feel bad for Dreamchaser...I'm not sure how they can continue it without NASA as a customer.
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." R.P.Feynman

Offline Burninate

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #150 on: 09/16/2014 10:55 PM »
Wow...so that turned as I expected and not as all the polls on various Space websites thought...:)

I don't know if that warrants a smiley. But let's keep this discussion on-topic; what will happen to SNC now?
Various predictions seen across the 2 threads discussing / updates on the rewards:

-SNC will have the option to bid later on, after initial service contracts are up for renewal
-SNC will continue to work on Dream Chaser on a slower pace
-and that might end in final cancellation after a drawn-out battle. Or not.

What seems likely?

Oh, I means Boeing is a kind of boring choice, but it sounded like the more likely one. Most people were stridently predicting SpaceX and SNC because that's who they wanted to see win rather than what was actually likely. I feel good to have gone with my head instead of my heart in predictions.

I feel bad for Dreamchaser...I'm not sure how they can continue it without NASA as a customer.

There was that interest from ESA in a europeanized Dream Chaser.

Offline Rocket Science

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #151 on: 09/16/2014 10:58 PM »
Wow...so that turned as I expected and not as all the polls on various Space websites thought...:)

I don't know if that warrants a smiley. But let's keep this discussion on-topic; what will happen to SNC now?
Various predictions seen across the 2 threads discussing / updates on the rewards:

-SNC will have the option to bid later on, after initial service contracts are up for renewal
-SNC will continue to work on Dream Chaser on a slower pace
-and that might end in final cancellation after a drawn-out battle. Or not.

What seems likely?

Oh, I means Boeing is a kind of boring choice, but it sounded like the more likely one. Most people were stridently predicting SpaceX and SNC because that's who they wanted to see win rather than what was actually likely. I feel good to have gone with my head instead of my heart in predictions.

I feel bad for Dreamchaser...I'm not sure how they can continue it without NASA as a customer.

There was that interest from ESA in a europeanized Dream Chaser.
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Offline Darkseraph

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #152 on: 09/16/2014 11:03 PM »
Wow...so that turned as I expected and not as all the polls on various Space websites thought...:)

I don't know if that warrants a smiley. But let's keep this discussion on-topic; what will happen to SNC now?
Various predictions seen across the 2 threads discussing / updates on the rewards:

-SNC will have the option to bid later on, after initial service contracts are up for renewal
-SNC will continue to work on Dream Chaser on a slower pace
-and that might end in final cancellation after a drawn-out battle. Or not.

What seems likely?

Oh, I means Boeing is a kind of boring choice, but it sounded like the more likely one. Most people were stridently predicting SpaceX and SNC because that's who they wanted to see win rather than what was actually likely. I feel good to have gone with my head instead of my heart in predictions.

I feel bad for Dreamchaser...I'm not sure how they can continue it without NASA as a customer.

There was that interest from ESA in a europeanized Dream Chaser.

There was news about that...I'd love that, but I am not sure they would pay up. Unless its launched on an Ariane rocket, it's not really employing European industry and workers...and ESA is very about that. Also they have had trouble just trying to agree on which rocket they were going to build next while the rest of the industry marches on. ESA's crew requirements for ISS are very low, so the flight rate would be appalling unless they sent it on other missions. Europes economic problems as a whole are only going to get much worse...so I think appetite for human spaceflight funding will go down for most of the rest of the decade.
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." R.P.Feynman

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #153 on: 09/17/2014 06:01 AM »
...
There was news about that...I'd love that, but I am not sure they would pay up. Unless its launched on an Ariane rocket, it's not really employing European industry and workers...and ESA is very about that. Also they have had trouble just trying to agree on which rocket they were going to build next while the rest of the industry marches on. ESA's crew requirements for ISS are very low, so the flight rate would be appalling unless they sent it on other missions. Europes economic problems as a whole are only going to get much worse...so I think appetite for human spaceflight funding will go down for most of the rest of the decade.
The DLR might be interested in the Dreamchaser to push Ariane 5 ME development. Since the current propose Ariane 6 variants are not adequate to lift the Dreamchaser. Also JAXA have shown some interest in the Dreamchaser.

Offline yg1968

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #154 on: 09/17/2014 06:47 AM »
Wow...so that turned as I expected and not as all the polls on various Space websites thought...:)

I don't know if that warrants a smiley. But let's keep this discussion on-topic; what will happen to SNC now?
Various predictions seen across the 2 threads discussing / updates on the rewards:

-SNC will have the option to bid later on, after initial service contracts are up for renewal
-SNC will continue to work on Dream Chaser on a slower pace
-and that might end in final cancellation after a drawn-out battle. Or not.

What seems likely?

Oh, I means Boeing is a kind of boring choice, but it sounded like the more likely one. Most people were stridently predicting SpaceX and SNC because that's who they wanted to see win rather than what was actually likely. I feel good to have gone with my head instead of my heart in predictions.

I feel bad for Dreamchaser...I'm not sure how they can continue it without NASA as a customer.

There was that interest from ESA in a europeanized Dream Chaser.

There was news about that...I'd love that, but I am not sure they would pay up. Unless its launched on an Ariane rocket, it's not really employing European industry and workers...and ESA is very about that. Also they have had trouble just trying to agree on which rocket they were going to build next while the rest of the industry marches on. ESA's crew requirements for ISS are very low, so the flight rate would be appalling unless they sent it on other missions. Europes economic problems as a whole are only going to get much worse...so I think appetite for human spaceflight funding will go down for most of the rest of the decade.

The discussions were about an uncrewed DC. But I doubt that ESA or JAXA is interested in funding the rest of the development of DC.
« Last Edit: 09/19/2014 03:53 PM by yg1968 »

Offline Nibb31

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #155 on: 09/17/2014 06:58 AM »
The collaboration between SNC and ESA was that ESA would provide its implementation of the LIDS docking system to SNC, probably in exchange for seats. There was no question of any funding to get DC to completion (it is not ESA's job to subsidize foreign private R&D efforts), and certainly no question of launching DreamChaser on Ariane.

Contrary to popular belief, Ariane 5 isn't "man-rated". Any provisions for crew launches were abandoned when Hermes were cancelled, well before the Ariane 5 development phase. Off the top of my head, manned flights on Ariane would require:
- Expensive redesign work on Ariane, which is unlikely at this point in the launcher's lifecycle.
- Construction of manned operations facilities at Kourou.
- Modifications to the launch pad, including a new launch tower and escape capability.
- Deployment of search and rescue forces for abort situations.

ESA really doesn't have much interest in manned spaceflight. I don't see ESA or European governments justifying the expense at this stage.
« Last Edit: 09/17/2014 06:59 AM by Nibb31 »

Offline macpacheco

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #156 on: 09/17/2014 08:59 AM »
I'm expecting SpaceX to be the odd man out. Boeing has flight heritage and big lobbyists. Sierra Nevada has wings and that's something NASA wants it seems. That leaves SpaceX holding the bag. I am one of SpaceX's biggest supporters but, I'm not sure that this wind is blowing in their direction. If not, they'll stay busy with cargo, commercial satellite launches and reuse for now. In the end, they become as know to the general public as Sea Launch sad to say. Without manned flights, SpaceX looses it's appeal.   
Dragon V2 + Falcon Heavy are an alternate to some SLS/Orion missions.
Dragon V2 + Raptor rockets should provide an alternate to all SLS/Orion missions.
Some people at NASA probably wants a plan B if the general public gets outraged by the costs of SLS/Orion program and it ends up cancelled.
Plus a part of NASA likes the can do attitude of SpaceX, since SpaceX has a mission much larger than manned ISS flights, SpaceX will tend to accommodate any logical requests to improve on the design, since they are very likely to be needed for the Mars missions SpaceX aims to execute prior to the full blown MCT goal.
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Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #157 on: 09/17/2014 11:20 AM »
Dragon V2 + Falcon Heavy are an alternate to some SLS/Orion missions.

The problem is that NASA would never be able to admit that publicly or act in accord with it. It would lead to massive political repercussions and possibly budget cuts.

Dragon V2 + Raptor rockets should provide an alternate to all SLS/Orion missions.

Raptor is not a given yet.

Plus a part of NASA likes the can do attitude of SpaceX, since SpaceX has a mission much larger than manned ISS flights, SpaceX will tend to accommodate any logical requests to improve on the design, since they are very likely to be needed for the Mars missions SpaceX aims to execute prior to the full blown MCT goal.

I'm going to sound like a Soviet functionary but this is a political issue. I can't see the political alliance supporting NASA funding surviving SLS being replaced by Dragon/Falcon Heavy. I'm not even sure if adding a 'sweetener' in the form of some evolved Legacy-space system (maybe EELV Phase 1) being added to the proposal making it acceptable. The existing political alliance would want the lion's share of the funding to go to Boeing and LockMart.

[edit]
Fixed quote tag
« Last Edit: 09/17/2014 11:21 AM by Ben the Space Brit »
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Offline Prober

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #158 on: 09/17/2014 02:36 PM »
Agree, although I would note that CCtCap selection has implications well beyond this CR and for the next several years).  While current budget issues may have an impact on CCtCap award timing, I hope and expect that it has little bearing on the actual awards.

CCtCap as written does not allow for fractional awards.  On CCtCap award, each CCtCap awardee is committed to complete certification, and guaranteed a minimum of two post-certification ISS crew flights.*  On CCtCap award, NASA is committed to funding every awardee through certification and a minimum of two post-certification ISS crew flights.*

* Assuming the awardee wants those flights.

You could still have one company that gets more money and another one that gets less funding. You would just have to adjust the timeline.

Don't think we have lessons of Constellation.   

My read from yesterdays announcement and in the words of Bolden, was that this program was all approved by the Obama administration.  Did they even get a long term commitment in real number from Congress?  Don't think so, as they said as much. 

I'll stand with what I said about Crew in L2 on future funding.


 
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Offline Rocket Science

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #159 on: 09/19/2014 03:33 PM »
Chris do we have any details on what this “non-abandonment” will consist of?
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