Author Topic: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser  (Read 87508 times)

Offline joek

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #80 on: 09/12/2014 06:27 PM »
Heads up: policy sites are reporting the budget CR may be delayed due to Obama's request  for "War on IS" funding.
Just to remind folks....  that may, or may not, have nothing to do with the delays.

IMHO, I suspect it does because I think NASA's selection is likely that the number picked is based on money available.  With NASA maximizing number despite the reality of the money.

Agree, although I would note that CCtCap selection has implications well beyond this CR and for the next several years).  While current budget issues may have an impact on CCtCap award timing, I hope and expect that it has little bearing on the actual awards.

CCtCap as written does not allow for fractional awards.  On CCtCap award, each CCtCap awardee is committed to complete certification, and guaranteed a minimum of two post-certification ISS crew flights.*  On CCtCap award, NASA is committed to funding every awardee through certification and a minimum of two post-certification ISS crew flights.*


* Assuming the awardee wants those flights.

Offline yg1968

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #81 on: 09/12/2014 08:00 PM »
Agree, although I would note that CCtCap selection has implications well beyond this CR and for the next several years).  While current budget issues may have an impact on CCtCap award timing, I hope and expect that it has little bearing on the actual awards.

CCtCap as written does not allow for fractional awards.  On CCtCap award, each CCtCap awardee is committed to complete certification, and guaranteed a minimum of two post-certification ISS crew flights.*  On CCtCap award, NASA is committed to funding every awardee through certification and a minimum of two post-certification ISS crew flights.*

* Assuming the awardee wants those flights.

You could still have one company that gets more money and another one that gets less funding. You would just have to adjust the timeline.
« Last Edit: 09/12/2014 08:17 PM by yg1968 »

Offline yg1968

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #82 on: 09/12/2014 08:08 PM »
Heads up: policy sites are reporting the budget CR may be delayed due to Obama's request  for "War on IS" funding.

Just to remind folks....  that may, or may not, have nothing to do with the delays.

IMHO, I suspect it does because I think NASA's selection is likely that the number picked is based on money available.  With NASA maximizing number despite the reality of the money.

I could understand NASA waiting for the CR in order to figure out its budget and adapt its milestones payment accordingly.

Being under a CR means that commercial crew would likely get $696M until an appropriation bill is passed. There is an across the board cut in the CR in order to get to the total number that was agreed in the budget deal of last year. I haven't worked out the math but I suspect that there is some flexibility as to how this across the board cut is applied.   

The text of the CR can be found here. The issues delaying its passage aren't related to NASA.

Here is the text of the CR released by the House a few hours ago. I don't see anything specific to NASA (other than the fact that spending levels will remain the same as FY 2014):
http://docs.house.gov/billsthisweek/20140908/BILLS-113hjres124-IH.pdf

Here is a summary:
http://appropriations.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=392934

See also this article:
http://thehill.com/policy/finance/217198-house-spending-chief-unveils-clean-plan-to-avoid-government-shutdown
« Last Edit: 09/12/2014 08:15 PM by yg1968 »

Offline jamesh9000

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #83 on: 09/12/2014 08:25 PM »
Jeff Foust has tweeted:
Quote
NASA SpX-4 advisory says "NASA senior leaders will host a briefing Sept. 19 at 9 a.m." Could be about the CRS mission… or something else?

Online abaddon

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #84 on: 09/12/2014 08:45 PM »
Since the launch is now the 20th, and this says "senior leaders"... seems plausible.  OTOH the launch is really early in the morning on the 20th, so maybe not.

I hope it is CCtCAP announcement, waiting is getting really dull.
« Last Edit: 09/12/2014 08:47 PM by abaddon »

Online docmordrid

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #85 on: 09/12/2014 09:09 PM »
Reads more like payload discussion  panels on the 18th and 19th,

Link....
« Last Edit: 09/12/2014 09:11 PM by docmordrid »
DM

Offline yg1968

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #86 on: 09/12/2014 09:11 PM »
Since the launch is now the 20th, and this says "senior leaders"... seems plausible.  OTOH the launch is really early in the morning on the 20th, so maybe not.

I hope it is CCtCAP announcement, waiting is getting really dull.

The timeline would make sense. By next week, the CR is expected to have been passed in the House and possibly in the Senate. I doubt that the Senate will offer any amendments to the CR given that it would have to go back to the House if they did. In any event, any amendments favored by the leadership in the House and Senate would have already been included in the CR at that point.
« Last Edit: 09/12/2014 09:11 PM by yg1968 »

Offline jamesh9000

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #87 on: 09/12/2014 10:07 PM »
Reads more like payload discussion  panels on the 18th and 19th,


Wouldn't it be cool if they finished the payload discussion and then said "oh, and one more thing..." then announced the cctcap winner(s)?

I know they'll never do it, but itd be a nice piece of showmanship if they did.


Offline joek

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #88 on: 09/12/2014 11:54 PM »
You could still have one company that gets more money and another one that gets less funding. You would just have to adjust the timeline.
There is no provision in CCtCap for "less funding [for less performance]" for one company vs. another, or for one company receiving "more money [for more performance]" than another.  All CCtCap awardees will and must receive funding sufficient to achieve certification+ and will be obligated to do so [perform equally].

edit: clarify "performance".
« Last Edit: 09/13/2014 03:18 AM by joek »

Offline yg1968

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #89 on: 09/13/2014 02:22 PM »
You could still have one company that gets more money and another one that gets less funding. You would just have to adjust the timeline.
There is no provision in CCtCap for "less funding [for less performance]" for one company vs. another, or for one company receiving "more money [for more performance]" than another.  All CCtCap awardees will and must receive funding sufficient to achieve certification+ and will be obligated to do so [perform equally].

edit: clarify "performance".

The performance would be the same for both companies but the timeline would be different (e.g., 2017 for the first crewed flight for one company but 2019 for the other). In any case, according to Charles Lurio, two fully funded companies will be selected.

Offline joek

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #90 on: 09/14/2014 03:08 AM »
The performance would be the same for both companies but the timeline would be different (e.g., 2017 for the first crewed flight for one company but 2019 for the other). In any case, according to Charles Lurio, two fully funded companies will be selected.

Yes.  Right.  I think we are in violemt agreement.  As I have stated several times up-thread.  The only knob NASA has to twiddle is the funding profile for each awardee.   For some it may be "fast", as in certification+ 2015+; for others it may be "slow", as in certification+ 2019+. (NB: the CCtCap Solicitation Milestone payment profile extends through GFY 2020.

In any case, as I continue to point out, there is no room for a CCtCap fractional award.  Every CCtCap awardee will be contractually obligated to achieve certification and and thus will be required to perform ISS crew flights.  By the sme token, NASA will be obligated to fund all CCtCap awardees through cerifiation+.  CCtCap does not allow for anything less.

Offline MP99

Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #91 on: 09/14/2014 07:20 AM »
By the sme token, NASA will be obligated to fund all CCtCap awardees through cerifiation+.  CCtCap does not allow for anything less.

Wasn't there a concern that a participant that failed would then lose their IP or assets to the government?

Cheers, Martin

Offline topsphere

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #92 on: 09/15/2014 10:14 PM »
Charles Lurio writes: "Companies will be told results tomorrow morning; public announcement likely to follow shortly after."


https://twitter.com/TheLurioReport/status/511637156746768384

Edit: Added link
« Last Edit: 09/15/2014 10:16 PM by topsphere »

Online docmordrid

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #93 on: 09/15/2014 10:33 PM »
Quote
@TheLurioReport

Yet another item: Supposedly someone saw a poster just delivered KSC re CCtCap - included SNC/SpaceX, not Boeing. But I advise caution.
DM

Offline tesla

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #94 on: 09/15/2014 10:46 PM »
From the same source:

"This just in from another re CCtCap: Award tomorrow between 10-11am EDT."

SO GET YOUR VCR FIRED UP!
WOOT WOOT!

EDIT: This article was posted just 10min ago. We will see how good WSJ is at predicting the future.  ;)
http://online.wsj.com/articles/boeing-takes-lead-to-build-space-taxi-1410820865
« Last Edit: 09/15/2014 10:55 PM by tesla »
Go SLS and Orion! God bless America.

Offline RedLineTrain

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #95 on: 09/15/2014 10:57 PM »
And the WSJ is reporting that "Boeing Takes Lead to Build Space Taxi."  It is from Andy Pasztor, so also take it with a grain of salt.

http://online.wsj.com/articles/boeing-takes-lead-to-build-space-taxi-1410820865

Quote
Boeing Co. appears positioned to beat out two smaller rivals for the bulk of a multibillion-dollar NASA contract to ferry astronauts to and from orbit, according to government and aerospace-industry officials.
« Last Edit: 09/15/2014 10:58 PM by RedLineTrain »

Offline topsphere

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #96 on: 09/15/2014 11:10 PM »
Could anyone with WSJ website access condense the main points in that article? ^

Offline ChrisWilson68

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #97 on: 09/15/2014 11:12 PM »
And the WSJ is reporting that "Boeing Takes Lead to Build Space Taxi."  It is from Andy Pasztor, so also take it with a grain of salt.

http://online.wsj.com/articles/boeing-takes-lead-to-build-space-taxi-1410820865

Quote
Boeing Co. appears positioned to beat out two smaller rivals for the bulk of a multibillion-dollar NASA contract to ferry astronauts to and from orbit, according to government and aerospace-industry officials.

The article seems to be based entirely on speculation.  There's no claim anywhere in the article that any information came from a source that actually knew the decision.

The closest it comes to justifying the conclusion that Boeing is "in the lead" is this:

Quote
Recent signals from the Obama administration, according to the officials, indicate that the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's leadership has concluded on a preliminary basis that Boeing's proposed capsule offers the least risky option, as well as the one most likely to be ready to transport U.S. crews to the international space station within three years.

So some official who doesn't actually know is speculating based on "signals".

Online Coastal Ron

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #98 on: 09/15/2014 11:17 PM »
Could anyone with WSJ website access condense the main points in that article? ^

If you Google the title of the article, then click on the link from the Google search results, you get guest access to the article.
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Online clongton

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #99 on: 09/15/2014 11:18 PM »
Going on record here before the awards that of the three competitors, in my opinion - Boeing is the least deserving to win. It has put the smallest amount of its own money into the project, preferring instead to let the USGov pay for the lion's share of its "Commercial" Crew  entry. The other two both committed much more of their own money, demonstrating a much greater commitment to the project than Boeing.

1. SNC brings a spacecraft to the table that is a true successor to Shuttle, with enormous cross range and far gentler re-entry g-stress. It is the only entry that is capable of returning payload or persons who desperately require a "gentle" return.

2. SpaceX brings a spacecraft that is actually designed for BEO missions but is capable of LEO service without wasting any of its true capabilities. It introduces a completely powered descent and landing, a true innovation. It also is capable of actually landing on both the lunar and Martian surfaces.

3. Boeing brings a spacecraft that is essentially an upgraded Apollo with air bag landing, its only innovative contribution.

While all three would be capable of providing crew rotation to the ISS, only Boeing has said that its Business Plan cannot close without a CCtCap win. That makes it the weaker of the three financially. Boeing's CST-100 is also the only entry that has not "flown". SpaceX's Dragon is actually providing cargo services to the ISS and DreamChaser has had an actual flight test, although unpowered. It has however, already paid for and scheduled its 1st space launch on an Atlas-V. Boeing has yet to show that level of commitment.
« Last Edit: 09/16/2014 01:03 AM by clongton »
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