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#740
by
gongora
on 11 Jan, 2017 02:24
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#741
by
CameronD
on 11 Jan, 2017 03:30
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A followup tweet from Jeff Foust:
Rocket Lab tells me “no test this month but we’re certainly getting close.”
So they're not quite as close as I thought they were?.. bummer.
Reminds me of what the mechanic said last time I went to pick up the car: "No sir, your car isn't ready yet - but we're working on it."
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#742
by
ringsider
on 11 Jan, 2017 05:18
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A followup tweet from Jeff Foust:
Rocket Lab tells me “no test this month but we’re certainly getting close.”
So they're not quite as close as I thought they were?.. bummer.
Reminds me of what the mechanic said last time I went to pick up the car: "No sir, your car isn't ready yet - but we're working on it."
My money is still on circa September for a full orbital attempt.
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#743
by
CameronD
on 11 Jan, 2017 22:53
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My money is still on circa September for a full orbital attempt.
You'd put money on a set date for a platform that hasn't got to static fire, leave alone demonstrated to leave the pad without vanishing in a ball of flame?!??
Oh boy, have I got some
schemes investment opportunities for you!
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#744
by
Robotbeat
on 11 Jan, 2017 22:55
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I think "attempt" is the operative word, there.
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#745
by
DatUser14
on 11 Jan, 2017 23:03
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My money is still on circa September for a full orbital attempt.
You'd put money on a set date for a platform that hasn't got to static fire, leave alone demonstrated to leave the pad without vanishing in a ball of flame?!??
Oh boy, have I got some schemes investment opportunities for you!
Rocket Lab has static fired the Electron first stage:
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#746
by
Davidthefat
on 11 Jan, 2017 23:05
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My money is still on circa September for a full orbital attempt.
You'd put money on a set date for a platform that hasn't got to static fire, leave alone demonstrated to leave the pad without vanishing in a ball of flame?!??
Oh boy, have I got some schemes investment opportunities for you!
Rocket Lab has static fired the Electron first stage:
I think his concern was that the Electron didn't go through a full up static fire like SpaceX does. Like with the second stage mated with the first. Although, I don't think any launch vehicle does full up static tests like SpaceX does. Someone can correct me on that if I'm wrong.
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#747
by
CameronD
on 12 Jan, 2017 00:33
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I think his concern was that the Electron didn't go through a full up static fire like SpaceX does. Like with the second stage mated with the first. Although, I don't think any launch vehicle does full up static tests like SpaceX does. Someone can correct me on that if I'm wrong.
I must admit that I'd forgotten they'd qualified their first stage design.. but that's still a long way from static fire of a complete rocket assembly (with it's associated vibration analysis, etc.) leave alone launch of anything higher than the launch pad.
They say they're only weeks away from a first launch, but IF (a) that's successful and (b) it's true that they plan at least six launches a year, I would think they'll be wanting to make an orbital attempt a lot
sooner than September..
.. but then I also think it's far too early to bet on it.
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#748
by
savuporo
on 12 Jan, 2017 03:31
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I'm betting they will make a first attempt in Q1. And the next one not more than 3 month after - i don't think they are funded at levels where they can afford to wait, or not hit a particular cadence fairly quickly. How successful these attempts can be, is a completely different matter.
MVR = minimum viable rocket
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#749
by
ringsider
on 12 Jan, 2017 05:04
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I think "attempt" is the operative word, there.
Indeed.
We should setup a little table of who backs which date for a full first orbital launch attempt.
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#750
by
Danderman
on 12 Jan, 2017 05:55
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I guess "all up" testing is a thing now, but it would seem more prudent to test just the first stage, and if possible, in another test, the second stage as a stand-alone minus the nozzle extension.
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#751
by
Kabloona
on 12 Jan, 2017 13:19
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Good for them. Around the :50 mark, the nozzles can be seen gimballing in unison, so they were testing the TVC system(s) as would be expected in a stage qual test.
And, a recent WSJ article:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/welcome-to-new-zealand-gateway-to-outer-space-1483982532At least they didn't call Peter Beck a "space nut" and torpedo his upcoming IPO (if he had one). NewSpace not so nutty any more...except for the legislator singing "Rocket Man" in Parliament.
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#752
by
CameronD
on 12 Jan, 2017 21:59
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And, a recent WSJ article:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/welcome-to-new-zealand-gateway-to-outer-space-1483982532
At least they didn't call Peter Beck a "space nut" and torpedo his upcoming IPO (if he had one). NewSpace not so nutty any more...except for the legislator singing "Rocket Man" in Parliament.
Yeah..
"We went to all the launch ranges in America,” said Peter Beck, a wiry-haired engineer who a decade ago founded Calif.-based aerospace company Rocket Lab....
Whilst not incorrect AIUI, after watching RL develop from the sidelines almost from the very start, the way that's worded kinda grates for some reason. Probably because there were very good reasons this is happening in NZ that didn't quite make that article ...(or at least not the bit that can be accessed without subscription).
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#753
by
Steven Pietrobon
on 13 Jan, 2017 04:21
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Whilst not incorrect AIUI, after watching RL develop from the sidelines almost from the very start, the way that's worded kinda grates for some reason. Probably because there were very good reasons this is happening in NZ that didn't quite make that article ...(or at least not the bit that can be accessed without subscription).
Enter the link in Google and then click the Google link. That gives you full access.
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#754
by
CameronD
on 13 Jan, 2017 04:48
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Whilst not incorrect AIUI, after watching RL develop from the sidelines almost from the very start, the way that's worded kinda grates for some reason. Probably because there were very good reasons this is happening in NZ that didn't quite make that article ...(or at least not the bit that can be accessed without subscription).
Enter the link in Google and then click the Google link. That gives you full access.
Didn't know about that little trick.. thanks!
Reading the remainder of the article, it does redeem itself rather quickly.. in all, just a good read.
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#755
by
savuporo
on 13 Jan, 2017 07:34
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...Others are a touch underwhelmed, being more attuned over the years to other legendary exploits along the coast here. Mahia is where the folkloric Maori hero Maui is said to have punched himself in the nose to draw blood and lure a fish that turned out to be New Zealand’s North Island.
“I have been to Cape Canaveral to see a rocket go up once,” said Pauline Tangiora, a Maori elder from Mahia’s Rongomaiwahine Tribe. “It didn’t impress me at all.”
I laughed.
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#756
by
orulz
on 13 Jan, 2017 17:31
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"We went to all the launch ranges in America,” said Peter Beck, a wiry-haired engineer who a decade ago founded Calif.-based aerospace company Rocket Lab....
Whilst not incorrect AIUI, after watching RL develop from the sidelines almost from the very start, the way that's worded kinda grates for some reason. Probably because there were very good reasons this is happening in NZ that didn't quite make that article ...(or at least not the bit that can be accessed without subscription).
What the article says may be more true than you think. Rocket Lab probably set out to be a more conventional rocket company, making rockets but not owning and operating their own private launch range. After all, getting all the ducks in a row in order to operate a range is in many ways a distraction from their primary mission which is to build rockets to launch their customers' payloads into space. Go to Canaveral or Vandenberg or Wallops or Kodiak and you can more or less pay somebody else to do it for you instead.
Except, at some point along the line they realized they couldn't make their vision of frequent and rapid launches work within the framework of traditional space, since none of the traditional ranges can support that many launches. I think I read somewhere that Canaveral is cleared for up to 48 launches in 2017. Seems like a lot, but when you split it between all the companies and rocket families using the facilities it starts to seem quite limiting if there is to be growth in the launch market.
Not to mention, at $5 million per launch, in a place like Canaveral, the cost of securing the range probably becomes a pretty substantial percentage of the total cost of the launch.
This whole business kind of reminds me of how Elon Musk never really set out to actually build rockets. Plan A was to use Russian ICBMs to launch a small greenhouse to Mars to get people more interested in space exploration and get NASA's exploration budget increased. Bureaucracy, regulation, and good old fashioned cultural barriers got in the way of the plan to buy missiles from Russia. That was the inception of Plan B, building his own rocket. The rest is history.
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#757
by
jamesh9000
on 14 Jan, 2017 06:30
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So I was having a snoop around to see if I could find out what was discussed at those "public information sessions" mentioned on the previous page, and a number of people were also enquiring about it on FB. Rocketlab replied:
Hello! Thanks for all the interest in the meeting. To clarify, these sessions are part of an ongoing series that have been held at Mokotahi Hall for local residents. They’re primarily focussed on local operations and logistics. Much of the information is likely not of interest to the general public. No major new information is being discussed. Public updates will continue to come through – we just like to keep in touch with our neighbours! Thanks
So, yeah. Probably nothing super interesting for anyone who doesn't live there. I imagine they weren't giving out hard dates for anything.
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#758
by
TrevorMonty
on 14 Jan, 2017 10:08
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This is about Moon Express but some info on Rocket Lab.
http://spacenews.com/moon-express-fully-funded-for-google-lunar-x-prize-bid/"
The company’s current schedule calls for integrating the spacecraft in July, and then shipping it to Rocket Lab’s New Zealand launch site in October. The launch, scheduled for late this year, will be the seventh or eighth operational flight of the Electron, Richards said, shortly after a NASA mission under a Venture Class Launch Services contract Rocket Lab received in late 2015. - "
All going well they will be launching about 10 Electrons in 2017, 2-3 test launches plus 7-8 operational launches.
Given launch site delays, they have had time build enough LVs and scheduling at range shouldn't be issue. The only show stopper will be Electron reliability.
First launch is Feb, which makes sense as they have to wait for bulk of holiday makers to leave. Which will be end of school holiday at end of Jan.
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#759
by
ringsider
on 14 Jan, 2017 10:53
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This is about Moon Express but some info on Rocket Lab.
http://spacenews.com/moon-express-fully-funded-for-google-lunar-x-prize-bid/
"
The company’s current schedule calls for integrating the spacecraft in July, and then shipping it to Rocket Lab’s New Zealand launch site in October. The launch, scheduled for late this year, will be the seventh or eighth operational flight of the Electron, Richards said, shortly after a NASA mission under a Venture Class Launch Services contract Rocket Lab received in late 2015. - "
All going well they will be launching about 10 Electrons in 2017, 2-3 test launches plus 7-8 operational launches.
Given launch site delays, they have had time build enough LVs and scheduling at range shouldn't be issue. The only show stopper will be Electron reliability.
First launch is Feb, which makes sense as they have to wait for bulk of holiday makers to leave. Which will be end of school holiday at end of Jan.
There is no way they will launch 8-10 flights in 2017, let alone successful flights.
I really like Rocket Lab but let's be realistic. This is a company that just barely managed to launch a small sounding rocket to the Karmann line. Orbit is another league entirely. Spacex took 3.4 years to achieve orbit - first F1 flight was March 2006, first suvcessful orbit was July 2009.
As to February, come on - we haven't seen a full mission duration S1 qualification burn from Rocket Lab yet, the burn they ran was using a short tank. And we haven't even got to GNC accuracy, stage separation or restart yet, let alone all the minor integration issues that can kibosh a launch. Those are massive hills to climb. With the best will in the world the last few details chew up huge chunks of time, especially when something goes wrong.
I reckon they are at least 6 months away from an initial all up attempt, maybe as much as a year.
Time for a flightpool - place your bets:-
1st full stack orbital launch attempt (regardless of outcome): 15 September 2017
1st successful orbital flight: 15 October 2019
) but lots of things still seems to be yet to be done so..... 
) but lots of things still seems to be yet to be done so..... 
