SpaceX Beer Bet Tracker

[go2mars]

I bet starship lands on the moon by the end of 2025.
If it does, you send me a space-themed T-shirt, ideally involving crass humour.

If you win, I owe you a case of beer or equivalent value something else.

First 3 takers before June 2022. Any takers?

[Zed_Noir]

....
First 3 takers before June 2022. Any takers?

You meant before June 2023? 

[su27k]

Pretty crazy how people underestimate SpaceX in the long term. 8 years ago there're still doubts whether SpaceX can launch 24/48 times annually by 2024/2025, yet here we're, seeing them launched 61 times in 2022 and gunning for 100 launches in 2023.

I wish mods would bring back the thread for optimistic SpaceX outlook, that's a great example of "People tend to overestimate what can be done in one year and to underestimate what can be done in five or ten years."

[2megs]

I bet starship lands on the moon by the end of 2025.
If it does, you send me a space-themed T-shirt, ideally involving crass humour.

If you win, I owe you a case of beer or equivalent value something else.

First 3 takers before June 2022. Any takers?

I'll take the other side of this bet, with a couple of definitions:


"Starship..." is a complete self-contained 9m stainless steel vehicle with methalox engines, comprising the entirety of dry mass launched directly atop a single SH booster. Anything involving kick stages, descent vehicles, or in-orbit (dis)assembly isn't "Starship" as understood today.

"...lands on the moon" intact, upright, and stable. Nothing about the landing itself would preclude a healthy crew from conducting a 7-day mission and then flying the entire vehicle back to NRHO. (Although it needn't actually carry a crew, a cabin, or liftoff fuel.)


My thought is those definitions force an orbital fuel depot, which requires a rapid launch cadence to top off and then transfer fuel before boiloff, which requires mastering reuse of both stages, which is going to require some downtime after every unsuccessful attempt on the road to mastery. Think of the "How Not to Land an Orbital Rocket Booster" video, except the role of cheap offshore barge is played by an expensive launch site.

They'll get there, but my bet is it takes more than 34 months. I'll cheer right along with you if I'm wrong, but if I'm right I'll at least get to drown my sorrows in someone else's beer. 

[dcporter]

Watch for the plot twist where Starship goes big next year and cannibalizes all but 47 reused F9s. 

Also—there's no beer I want 24 of at a time any more

[2megs]

Watch for the plot twist where Starship goes big next year and cannibalizes all but 47 reused F9s. 

Counterintuitively, I'm counting on it. HLS requires a topped-up depot, which requires a salvo of tankers, which requires full and rapid reuse, which requires reliably launching in the first place. Somewhere along the line from consistently launching to consistently landing, there are a lot of Starlinks that will ride up on Starships that aren't necessarily coming down in one piece.

I think they get there eventually; I just think that chain of prerequisites adds up to more than (now only) 33 months of real non-Elon time.

[Robotbeat]

https://twitter.com/robotbeat/status/1727388030355530038?s=46

[wannamoonbase]

https://twitter.com/robotbeat/status/1727388030355530038?s=46

I bet booster recovery before end of Q3 2024 and ship recovery by end of Q1 2025

I don’t think people appreciate how much of a multiplier booster recovery is going to be. 

Once they don’t have to build 1 booster for each ship the development/flight pace will be significant

[Elmar Moelzer]

For Chris/Robotbeat. It is not SpaceX related, but I hereby open a "beer" - bet that Helion will produce net electricity from fusion before the end of 2025. If I lose, you get a drink from me. If I win, I will buy a bottle of port or two for us to cheer with together. My treat, but you have to come for a visit to Michigan!
Deal?

[Robotbeat]

For Chris/Robotbeat. It is not SpaceX related, but I hereby open a "beer" - bet that Helion will produce net electricity from fusion before the end of 2025. If I lose, you get a drink from me. If I win, I will buy a bottle of port or two for us to cheer with together. My treat, but you have to come for a visit to Michigan!
Deal?

Deal. I will only modify that if either of us is nearby each other, we can pay up. Additionally, value of bet not to exceed $20!

I usually go to Michigan once or twice a year, so this should be doable!

[rsdavis9]

For Chris/Robotbeat. It is not SpaceX related, but I hereby open a "beer" - bet that Helion will produce net electricity from fusion before the end of 2025. If I lose, you get a drink from me. If I win, I will buy a bottle of port or two for us to cheer with together. My treat, but you have to come for a visit to Michigan!
Deal?

Deal. I will only modify that if either of us is nearby each other, we can pay up. Additionally, value of bet not to exceed $20!

I usually go to Michigan once or twice a year, so this should be doable!

So is that net for the reaction or for the whole machine?
The laser implosion is positive for the reaction but negative for the whole machine.

[Jim]

Public notice served, and a place to tally SpaceX's long-term progress towards reusability and market growth.

It all started here:

That is nonsense. 
And get ready to be disappointed.  The dead end method is likely the only viable method.   If the GSE can't support routine and rapid launches, don't expect the reused flight hardware to be any different.

I feel like there's a friendly case-of-beer-in-ten-years bet that I want to make here.

Jim always serves up a nice counterpoint to the rampant optimism around these boards, but I like to make predictions stick. So I've bet him a 24-case of beer against a bottle of vodka that SpaceX will fly 48 or more missions – an average of 4 per month – on reused rockets in 2024. Expendable rockets don't count, and neither do first-time-flying ones.

I will pay off based on 2023.  When and where?

[dcporter]

🤝🏻. Thanks Jim, it's been an honor. I'm excited for SpaceX, and for the future!

Two 12-packs of Night Shift Santilli should settle us up? I'll reach out.

[scaesare]

🤝🏻. Thanks Jim, it's been an honor. I'm excited for SpaceX, and for the future!

Two 12-packs of Night Shift Santilli should settle us up? I'll reach out.

Resurrecting a decade-old thread to pay off a bet.

Well done, honorable sir!

[Jim]

🤝🏻. Thanks Jim, it's been an honor. I'm excited for SpaceX, and for the future!

Two 12-packs of Night Shift Santilli should settle us up? I'll reach out.

is it available in FL?

[meekGee]

. Thanks Jim, it's been an honor. I'm excited for SpaceX, and for the future!

Two 12-packs of Night Shift Santilli should settle us up? I'll reach out.

Resurrecting a decade-old thread to pay off a bet.

Well done, honorable sir!

Damn accurate though, from 9 years away!

[Hog]

🤝🏻. Thanks Jim, it's been an honor. I'm excited for SpaceX, and for the future!

Two 12-packs of Night Shift Santilli should settle us up? I'll reach out.

Resurrecting a decade-old thread to pay off a bet.

Well done, honorable sir!

Jim's the one who posted up that he's ready to pay off the beer bet.  Post #151.
We don't do "stolen honour" here at NSF.com.(j/k) 

It's nice to see a long term friendly wager come to completion.  Congrats gentlemen!



Edit 1/16/24:man to men

[Robotbeat]

*Bump* (more to come)

[Elmar Moelzer]

So is that net for the reaction or for the whole machine?
The laser implosion is positive for the reaction but negative for the whole machine.

More energy in the capacitor bank after the pulse than before the pulse.