SpaceX Beer Bet Tracker

[Lar]

Actually, starting from the beginning of the thread and reviewing, since I have a bet pending once we finalize the details, I think we have some settle-able bets at this point.

Probably should go through and try to summarize resolved bets.

Apropos of nothing at all:

https://getpocket.com/explore/item/the-gambler-who-cracked-the-horse-racing-code

Fascinating read and completely irrelevant to what we're doing here. (I think?)

[meberbs]

Jadebenn has previously indicated willingness to make bets related to Starship, it seems that those bets were never finalized, so here is what I would be willing to bet with him (or anyone else willing to take these bets) I prefer leaving SLS comparisons off so things like SLS delays and work stoppages won't affect the maximum timeline of resolving the bet, not that I expect it to matter:

1. Starship flies to orbit this year (NLT December 31, 2020) I'd bet about $20 or equivalent value, a typical bet for a friendly "beer bet"

2. Starship flies to orbit by the end of next year (NLT December 31, 2021) I'd bet a lot. The highest value I can think of that stays within the bounds of a friendly bet is lifetime L2 membership. I already have this, but upon me winning, I would accept an equivalent donation to the L2 student scholarship fund in my name.

For definitions, orbit means fully travel at least once around the world, no straight up and down flight counts unless it stays up for around 24 or more hours to land back near the launch site. (because this clearly exceeds the capability of reaching orbit) Once around and land back near the launch site counts even with unsuccessful re-entry, but if this single orbit was not the plan such as due to a failure on the way up it doesn't count. Stranded Starship in unplanned orbit due to failure on the way up also would not count.

Terms, definitions, and bet amounts negotiable.

[dglow]

Jadebenn has previously indicated willingness to make bets related to Starship, it seems that those bets were never finalized, so here is what I would be willing to bet with him (or anyone else willing to take these bets) I prefer leaving SLS comparisons off so things like SLS delays and work stoppages won't affect the maximum timeline of resolving the bet, not that I expect it to matter:

1. Starship flies to orbit this year (NLT December 31, 2020) I'd bet about $20 or equivalent value, a typical bet for a friendly "beer bet"

2. Starship flies to orbit by the end of next year (NLT December 31, 2021) I'd bet a lot. The highest value I can think of that stays within the bounds of a friendly bet is lifetime L2 membership. I already have this, but upon me winning, I would accept an equivalent donation to the L2 student scholarship fund in my name.

For definitions, orbit means fully travel at least once around the world, no straight up and down flight counts unless it stays up for around 24 or more hours to land back near the launch site. (because this clearly exceeds the capability of reaching orbit) Once around and land back near the launch site counts even with unsuccessful re-entry, but if this single orbit was not the plan such as due to a failure on the way up it doesn't count. Stranded Starship in unplanned orbit due to failure on the way up also would not count.

Terms, definitions, and bet amounts negotiable.

I will take your bet #1. As for the definition of 'orbit', why not simply: Starship achieves orbital velocity. The nature or lack of reentry is irrelevant for purposes of the bet.

[Robotbeat]

Actually, starting from the beginning of the thread and reviewing, since I have a bet pending once we finalize the details, I think we have some settle-able bets at this point.

Probably should go through and try to summarize resolved bets.

Apropos of nothing at all:

https://getpocket.com/explore/item/the-gambler-who-cracked-the-horse-racing-code

Fascinating read and completely irrelevant to what we're doing here. (I think?)

I've got a couple on here. I won one vs peter.colin, I lost one (but I had low confidence and gave 6 to 12 odds, so I guess I only need to buy a cheap beer? for dcporter), and I think I lost an old one to Jim (ULA beat SpaceX in launch count in 2015... although 2 years later in 2017, SpaceX more than doubled ULA's count... which is irrelevant to the fact I lost, but still LOL), but I don't remember the terms with Jim (happy to settle with beer).

Not on here, but I DID make another bet with a coworker of mine with respect to SpaceX launch rate in 2018ish (and another that I won with rocketrepreneur), so I feel slightly better than even.

[meberbs]

1. Starship flies to orbit this year (NLT December 31, 2020) I'd bet about $20 or equivalent value, a typical bet for a friendly "beer bet"
...

I will take your bet #1. As for the definition of 'orbit', why not simply: Starship achieves orbital velocity. The nature or lack of reentry is irrelevant for purposes of the bet.

I was mostly overcompensating for fairly unlikely cases. Your definition gets at the core of the matter.

Do you have any preferences on the exact stakes? I know some people prefer payments in person (I live in CO)

Otherwise, its a bet.

[dglow]

1. Starship flies to orbit this year (NLT December 31, 2020) I'd bet about $20 or equivalent value, a typical bet for a friendly "beer bet"
...

I will take your bet #1. As for the definition of 'orbit', why not simply: Starship achieves orbital velocity. The nature or lack of reentry is irrelevant for purposes of the bet.

I was mostly overcompensating for fairly unlikely cases. Your definition gets at the core of the matter.

Do you have any preferences on the exact stakes? I know some people prefer payments in person (I live in CO)

Otherwise, its a bet.

The winner may opt for $20 or a surprise gift to be selected by the payee.

I'm in the Bay Area. Let's assume payment by mail unless circumstances allow otherwise!

<virtual handshake>

[meberbs]

<virtual handshake>

<shakes>

[oiorionsbelt]

<virtual handshake>

<shakes>

Wash your hands

[Robotbeat]

Made another bet here. SpaceX will attempt to land a vehicle at least 30 tons wet on Mars by 2035: https://mobile.twitter.com/Robotbeat/status/1254542805436977153

[dcporter]

Technically off-topic, but it’ll be resolved shortly:

https://twitter.com/davecporter/status/1240487275357749250

Chris no cheap beer but I will take a half pint of something good.

[Robotbeat]

Not until the clamps are released!

[dcporter]

I've bet [J]im a 24-case of beer against a bottle of vodka that SpaceX will fly 48 or more missions – an average of 4 per month – on reused rockets in 2024. Expendable rockets don't count, and neither do first-time-flying ones.

Happy Anniversary Jim!

Okay we've crossed the halfway point. I can see this playing out a few ways: basically status quo, where I lose by a factor of two or three; I win because Starlink is a wild success and Starship isn't running yet; or I lose because Starship has taken over Starlink launching but hasn't really gotten into its sci fi thousands-of-launches-per-conjunction cadence yet.

[Comga]

I've bet [J]im a 24-case of beer against a bottle of vodka that SpaceX will fly 48 or more missions – an average of 4 per month – on reused rockets in 2024. Expendable rockets don't count, and neither do first-time-flying ones.

Happy Anniversary Jim!

Okay we've crossed the halfway point. I can see this playing out a few ways: basically status quo, where I lose by a factor of two or three; I win because Starlink is a wild success and Starship isn't running yet; or I lose because Starship has taken over Starlink launching but hasn't really gotten into its sci fi thousands-of-launches-per-conjunction cadence yet.

6 out of 10 years is the halfway point?
Or are you referring to the first anniversary of the halfway point? 
I like this bet, except considering vodka as a prize.
Still, 48 is a pretty big number.

[philw1776]

Jadebenn has previously indicated willingness to make bets related to Starship, it seems that those bets were never finalized, so here is what I would be willing to bet with him (or anyone else willing to take these bets) I prefer leaving SLS comparisons off so things like SLS delays and work stoppages won't affect the maximum timeline of resolving the bet, not that I expect it to matter:

1. Starship flies to orbit this year (NLT December 31, 2020) I'd bet about $20 or equivalent value, a typical bet for a friendly "beer bet"

2. Starship flies to orbit by the end of next year (NLT December 31, 2021) I'd bet a lot. The highest value I can think of that stays within the bounds of a friendly bet is lifetime L2 membership. I already have this, but upon me winning, I would accept an equivalent donation to the L2 student scholarship fund in my name.

For definitions, orbit means fully travel at least once around the world, no straight up and down flight counts unless it stays up for around 24 or more hours to land back near the launch site. (because this clearly exceeds the capability of reaching orbit) Once around and land back near the launch site counts even with unsuccessful re-entry, but if this single orbit was not the plan such as due to a failure on the way up it doesn't count. Stranded Starship in unplanned orbit due to failure on the way up also would not count.

Terms, definitions, and bet amounts negotiable.

I accept your bet #2. I also have L2 Lifetime and would donate such upon losing.
To clarify, I am betting that SS does not orbit by end 2021.

[wannamoonbase]

I've bet [J]im a 24-case of beer against a bottle of vodka that SpaceX will fly 48 or more missions – an average of 4 per month – on reused rockets in 2024. Expendable rockets don't count, and neither do first-time-flying ones.

Happy Anniversary Jim!

Okay we've crossed the halfway point. I can see this playing out a few ways: basically status quo, where I lose by a factor of two or three; I win because Starlink is a wild success and Starship isn't running yet; or I lose because Starship has taken over Starlink launching but hasn't really gotten into its sci fi thousands-of-launches-per-conjunction cadence yet.

6 out of 10 years is the halfway point?
Or are you referring to the first anniversary of the halfway point? 
I like this bet, except considering vodka as a prize.
Still, 48 is a pretty big number.

Whoa, 48 is a huge number for the F9.  They are trying really hard, but still with weather and ASDS cycles, 48 will seem to require more boosters and 3 pads, or 2 pads and 3 HIFs.

Getting the west coast launching Starlink flights would go a long way to help this out.

[steveleach]

I've bet [J]im a 24-case of beer against a bottle of vodka that SpaceX will fly 48 or more missions – an average of 4 per month – on reused rockets in 2024. Expendable rockets don't count, and neither do first-time-flying ones.

Happy Anniversary Jim!

Okay we've crossed the halfway point. I can see this playing out a few ways: basically status quo, where I lose by a factor of two or three; I win because Starlink is a wild success and Starship isn't running yet; or I lose because Starship has taken over Starlink launching but hasn't really gotten into its sci fi thousands-of-launches-per-conjunction cadence yet.

6 out of 10 years is the halfway point?
Or are you referring to the first anniversary of the halfway point? 
I like this bet, except considering vodka as a prize.
Still, 48 is a pretty big number.

Whoa, 48 is a huge number for the F9.  They are trying really hard, but still with weather and ASDS cycles, 48 will seem to require more boosters and 3 pads, or 2 pads and 3 HIFs.

Getting the west coast launching Starlink flights would go a long way to help this out.

Don't they have 45 planned for this year? So 48 by 2024 doesn't seem that unrealistic.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9#Launch_history

[niwax]

I've bet [J]im a 24-case of beer against a bottle of vodka that SpaceX will fly 48 or more missions – an average of 4 per month – on reused rockets in 2024. Expendable rockets don't count, and neither do first-time-flying ones.

Happy Anniversary Jim!

Okay we've crossed the halfway point. I can see this playing out a few ways: basically status quo, where I lose by a factor of two or three; I win because Starlink is a wild success and Starship isn't running yet; or I lose because Starship has taken over Starlink launching but hasn't really gotten into its sci fi thousands-of-launches-per-conjunction cadence yet.

6 out of 10 years is the halfway point?
Or are you referring to the first anniversary of the halfway point? 
I like this bet, except considering vodka as a prize.
Still, 48 is a pretty big number.

Whoa, 48 is a huge number for the F9.  They are trying really hard, but still with weather and ASDS cycles, 48 will seem to require more boosters and 3 pads, or 2 pads and 3 HIFs.

Getting the west coast launching Starlink flights would go a long way to help this out.

Don't they have 45 planned for this year? So 48 by 2024 doesn't seem that unrealistic.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9#Launch_history

By 2024, you'll also get the overlap between F9 at its highest historical flight volume as well as the Starship orbital test program, and the bet didn't specify which booster. At this point I give it good odds.

[RotoSequence]

Is that specifically in 2024, or by 2024?

[mheney]

Lar. Cleaned it up. Hopefully no language, all math. I go with FH means 3 cores. Any ONE core delay can delay two additional. How does this look? For all years prior to 2025:
X * 1 core* (F9 + derivatives + variants) + Y * 1 core* (F9R + derivatives + variants) + Z * 3 core * (FH + derivatives + variants) < 24 / year.

Done. If at any time that formula exceeds 24, you owe me a bottle of 15 year or older single malt, you can pick the particular malt and vintage. If for all years prior to 2025 it never does, I owe you the same,  except that I can pick[1]

1 - this is to prevent the selection of some exceedingly pricey ones that I just can't afford.. for example this one
http://www.thewhiskyexchange.com/P-16442.aspx is 350 pounds! Too rich for me.

Did 2020's 26 launches settle this bet?

[Robotbeat]

Bump!