SpaceX Beer Bet Tracker

[guckyfan]

Run separate methane lines. Two separate umbilicals, both feeding off the same LOX line and of RP-1 or methane for the two types of stage. Have two different arms, one of which engages or have an arm for the methane stage with possible adapters for the RP-1 stage.

A methane first stage would need a complete different TEL. But swapping the TEL out is not that hard with two cranes.

[Jim]

No need. Just tee off the plumbing that's currently handling the RP-1. Then you just activate whichever branch you need at the time, RP-1 or methane.

They can't share the same piping.  One is room temp and the other is cryogenic.  Also, methane would freeze any residual RP-1.

[Lar]

First time I've read this amusing thread. I would like to create a bet myself. But first conditions. I bet on my end a dinner & drink(s) out to a bar/restaurant of your choice where we go together and I pay $50 of your tab. You see I want to pay my bet in person and if I loose I get to spend an evening talking with a fellow space enthusiast. Also assuming there are more than 3 takers that the bet is limited to 3 and I get to choose who I take the bets up with. Payment will not be immediate as I will have to schedule a vacation to your area. If I win I will still go to that restaurant with you only you pay up to $50 for my bill.

On to the bet. I believe SpaceX will build and fly at least one Raptor powered second stage on a Falcon Heavy before Jan 1, 2020. I expect lots of takers, I know this is definitely a long shot.

You should clarify whether any Raptor-powered orbital vehicle mounted on top of the Falcon's first stage counts.

Just to make sure that if that hypothetical vehicle is not a classical "second stage" but rather an integrated vehicle, the outcome of the bet is unambiguous.

I hadn't thought of that. If you are talking about an integrated second stage and orbital vehicle then yes it would count. I've been told (mostly by Jim) that supplying methane for second stage at 39A is not possible. Trying to get clarification on why has no response, I assume it has to do with TEL possibly no room for extra pipes. I look at the TEL and I think, my god this is huge! and can't imagine insufficient space.

If a FH launched with a conventional RP-1 second stage but the payload was something methalox powered and Raptor engined, would that count as a win ( built and flew at least one Raptor second stage) or a loss (it technically isn't a second stage, unlike an integrated vehicle) under the revised terms of this bet? If it's a loss, I'd take on one of these 3 bets, as I don't see SpaceX doing a real Raptor S2 for F9 or FH, ever.  If it's a win, pass, as I could see them doing this for test purposes.

[envy887]

Run separate methane lines. Two separate umbilicals, both feeding off the same LOX line and of RP-1 or methane for the two types of stage. Have two different arms, one of which engages or have an arm for the methane stage with possible adapters for the RP-1 stage.

A methane first stage would need a complete different TEL. But swapping the TEL out is not that hard with two cranes.

Swapping the TEL out might be easier than using adapters, running more pluming, adding arms, etc to the exiting TEL. Not to mention that they could build a second TEL without interfering with the current launch cadence to modify the existing one.

That could be the simplest way to add methane vehicle capability to 39A.

[dcporter]

Robotbeat and Peter.Colin have (a heavily local) one regarding pyrotechnics on FH's first launch:

How likely is the chance of failure if you make this statement?
I would bet money it fails

www.orlandosentinel.com/news/space/os-bz-ap-spacex-falcon-heavy-fail-risk-20170719-story.html

Okay, I'll take that bet. Easy peasy. $10, in the form of a beverage of the winner's choice, must be redeemed in person.

Good! if the first Falcon Heavy doesn't explode (when the engines are burning) you get a $10 beverage at my place (Belgium)  and vice versa.

Robotbeat and I spun one up on Twitter at 6-to-12 odds that SpaceX will shut down F9 booster production by EOY 2018. (Not counting 2nd stages obviously, and not counting FH cores.)

Start: https://twitter.com/Robotbeat/status/898357597945954304
Odds: https://twitter.com/davecporter/status/898398397337526272
Caveat: https://twitter.com/Robotbeat/status/898398638958723072
Handshake: https://twitter.com/davecporter/status/898399581574012928

Bump! Notice served of two new bets. --^

[Roy_H]

First time I've read this amusing thread. I would like to create a bet myself. But first conditions. I bet on my end a dinner & drink(s) out to a bar/restaurant of your choice where we go together and I pay $50 of your tab. You see I want to pay my bet in person and if I loose I get to spend an evening talking with a fellow space enthusiast. Also assuming there are more than 3 takers that the bet is limited to 3 and I get to choose who I take the bets up with. Payment will not be immediate as I will have to schedule a vacation to your area. If I win I will still go to that restaurant with you only you pay up to $50 for my bill.

On to the bet. I believe SpaceX will build and fly at least one Raptor powered second stage on a Falcon Heavy before Jan 1, 2020. I expect lots of takers, I know this is definitely a long shot.

You should clarify whether any Raptor-powered orbital vehicle mounted on top of the Falcon's first stage counts.

Just to make sure that if that hypothetical vehicle is not a classical "second stage" but rather an integrated vehicle, the outcome of the bet is unambiguous.

I hadn't thought of that. If you are talking about an integrated second stage and orbital vehicle then yes it would count. I've been told (mostly by Jim) that supplying methane for second stage at 39A is not possible. Trying to get clarification on why has no response, I assume it has to do with TEL possibly no room for extra pipes. I look at the TEL and I think, my god this is huge! and can't imagine insufficient space.

If a FH launched with a conventional RP-1 second stage but the payload was something methalox powered and Raptor engined, would that count as a win ( built and flew at least one Raptor second stage) or a loss (it technically isn't a second stage, unlike an integrated vehicle) under the revised terms of this bet? If it's a loss, I'd take on one of these 3 bets, as I don't see SpaceX doing a real Raptor S2 for F9 or FH, ever.  If it's a win, pass, as I could see them doing this for test purposes.

Well, it seems I have at least one taker. Yes I mean a true methalox fueled Raptor upper stage, not just a payload with a raptor test engine.

[dcporter]

Just to clarify, a combined second stage and payload which makes it to orbit doesn't count?

[Roy_H]

Just to clarify, a combined second stage and payload which makes it to orbit doesn't count?

I don't know how I can make this clearer. Bottom three cores (F9 derivatives) are kerosene/lox fueled Merlin engines. Stage above (any possible configuration) methane/lox Raptor engine. Or maybe I should say upper stage NOT Merlin powered?

[dcporter]

I don't know how I can make this clearer.

- I misread Lar's aside to read "it technically isn't a second stage, like an integrated vehicle isn't", and thought there was ambiguity left in your answer to his question.
- This is a rocket forum beer bet thread. I can't picture a lower-stakes place for you to get spiky.

Added, with mild pique.

[Lar]

Let's all chill, k? I'm excited I have a bet going...

[wannamoonbase]

Beer bets:

1) FH flies in December and is successful.
2) FH Demo payload has some portion of cheese in it.

[Hauerg]

Just to clarify, a combined second stage and payload which makes it to orbit doesn't count?

I don't know how I can make this clearer. Bottom three cores (F9 derivatives) are kerosene/lox fueled Merlin engines. Stage above (any possible configuration) methane/lox Raptor engine. Or maybe I should say upper stage NOT Merlin powered?

If Elon reads this he might go through his basement. There must be a few Kestrels left.....

[Lar]

Kestrel will never fly again ... I'm willing to bet on that one

[david1971]

Kestrel will never fly again ... I'm willing to bet on that one

How does that bet work?  If it flies, you buy me beer, and as long as it doesn't, I remind you that never means a very long time?

[Lar]

Kestrel will never fly again ... I'm willing to bet on that one

How does that bet work?  If it flies, you buy me beer, and as long as it doesn't, I remind you that never means a very long time?

Haha, good point. Maybe 10 years then...

[Lar]

Bump. This is the general place for bets to be recorded...

[wes_wilson]

A thread that has been quiet for too long 

I will bet that SpaceX launches something towards Mars before January 20th, 2021.  Doesn't have to arrive at Mars by that date; has to reach Earth orbit by that date with governmental permission to go to Mars.

If I lose, winners must collect their bet in Tampa Fl.   

Takers?

Edit: Excluding the Tesla they already sent.

[meberbs]

A thread that has been quiet for too long 

I will bet that SpaceX launches something towards Mars before January 20th, 2021.  Doesn't have to arrive at Mars by that date; has to reach Earth orbit by that date with governmental permission to go to Mars.

If I lose, winners must collect their bet in Tampa Fl.   

Takers?

Edit: Excluding the Tesla they already sent.

I'd take this bet, though it is almost too easy. The Tesla would not count to begin with, since it only has an apogee past Mars orbit, it was never sent towards Mars. The launch window this year is too soon for SpaceX to have a chance of sending Starship this year, and it would make very little sense to send anything between windows, it could actually arrive later than if they just wait for the 2022 window.

If this doesn't change your mind, I'll take the easy win. I expect to be in Orlando in the future to either meet friends or watch a launch, so should be able to arrange payment. What value are you willing to bet? (I don't generally like beer, but will take an equivalent drink as an option.)

[wes_wilson]

A thread that has been quiet for too long 

I will bet that SpaceX launches something towards Mars before January 20th, 2021.  Doesn't have to arrive at Mars by that date; has to reach Earth orbit by that date with governmental permission to go to Mars.

If I lose, winners must collect their bet in Tampa Fl.   

Takers?

Edit: Excluding the Tesla they already sent.

I'd take this bet, though it is almost too easy. The Tesla would not count to begin with, since it only has an apogee past Mars orbit, it was never sent towards Mars. The launch window this year is too soon for SpaceX to have a chance of sending Starship this year, and it would make very little sense to send anything between windows, it could actually arrive later than if they just wait for the 2022 window.

If this doesn't change your mind, I'll take the easy win. I expect to be in Orlando in the future to either meet friends or watch a launch, so should be able to arrange payment. What value are you willing to bet? (I don't generally like beer, but will take an equivalent drink as an option.)

Bet taken, call it up to $20 of consumables?

I have a pet theory that they'd like to launch something (anything) towards Mars under the current administration who is not overly concerned about environmental issues (IE planetary protection).  Simply securing the approvals for a private company to land on Mars (regardless of the success of the mission itself) would be a political win and create precedent for future launches.  IANARS but I also think they could do a ballistic capture trajectory after this fall's transfer window closes. 

[meberbs]

A thread that has been quiet for too long 

I will bet that SpaceX launches something towards Mars before January 20th, 2021.  Doesn't have to arrive at Mars by that date; has to reach Earth orbit by that date with governmental permission to go to Mars.

If I lose, winners must collect their bet in Tampa Fl.   

Takers?

Edit: Excluding the Tesla they already sent.

I'd take this bet, though it is almost too easy. The Tesla would not count to begin with, since it only has an apogee past Mars orbit, it was never sent towards Mars. The launch window this year is too soon for SpaceX to have a chance of sending Starship this year, and it would make very little sense to send anything between windows, it could actually arrive later than if they just wait for the 2022 window.

If this doesn't change your mind, I'll take the easy win. I expect to be in Orlando in the future to either meet friends or watch a launch, so should be able to arrange payment. What value are you willing to bet? (I don't generally like beer, but will take an equivalent drink as an option.)

Bet taken, call it up to $20 of consumables?

Agreed 

Hopefully see you next year, one way or another.