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Chinese reaction to commercial space?
by
malenfant
on 10 Jun, 2014 12:15
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Does anyone care to speculate on the impact on Chinese policy if their program is surpassed by commercial providers?
China have ben able to run a very slow, incremental program but to still get good propaganda out of it due to the lack of comparable milestones from other nations. Conceivably China could be beaten both to a resupplyable space station and a lunar free-return flight within the next few years. In that scenario will it be viable for China to continue hyping a program that is clearly not world leading? Might they be faced with a choice to either accelerate their programe or to play it down or cancel it? What national prestige is there in repeating things that private companies are doing?
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#1
by
RonM
on 10 Jun, 2014 12:31
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It's still an elite club. Russia, USA, China, and some US companies being paid by the US government. Even when commercial space does its own thing, the business was started by contracts from NASA. I don't see why that would change China's program.
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#2
by
majormajor42
on 10 Jun, 2014 13:56
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What is the goal of the Chinese space program? Using words/terms like propaganda and national prestige makes me realize that those things are being controlled within China. I'm not even sure if the citizens of China wish to beat "us" to some goal as a measure of national pride. Why would they declare such a contest if there is a chance they may not win?
As a citizen of Earth I wish China (Russia, ESA) would adopt some commercial space strategies that I feel would advance their program. As an American I guess I'm glad that others have not yet figured it out.
Answer to commercial space...it is not yet evident to the Chinese, or even many Americans or others, that commercial space is a clear path forward. At this moment in time, as a matter of national prestige, we can't launch our own astronauts.
I guess you could say that American commercial space is now winning launch contacts that used to go to China, and that may be something they need an answer for but for decades, America was just fine not winning those contracts...those outside the community could care less.
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#3
by
edkyle99
on 10 Jun, 2014 14:23
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Does anyone care to speculate on the impact on Chinese policy if their program is surpassed by commercial providers?
First, there was this report of a CALT official saying that they couldn't match SpaceX published prices, which could be interpreted as meaning they did not believe the published prices.
http://science.slashdot.org/story/11/04/17/1958253/china-space-official-confounded-by-spacex-priceBeyond that, I would expect China's government to look at SpaceX as just another U.S. government contractor, like ULA, Orbital, and the rest. Technically, they are all "commercial providers" just like SpaceX.
- Ed Kyle
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#4
by
savuporo
on 10 Jun, 2014 16:14
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Just a note, after Chang'e-3 launch when rocket parts rained on Chinese villages again, some Chinese space officials were quoted as thinking about reusable launch vehicles as a solution.
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#5
by
Dalhousie
on 10 Jun, 2014 21:52
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China offers commercial launch services, despite the attempts of the US government stop them through ITAR. That said, the no US-manufactured satellite can be launched by China, and hasn't been since 1996. So it is risible to say that SpaceX is taking customers that used to go to China. Not the SpaceX has actually launched many commercial payloads as yet.
China seeds a diverse and successful space sector as part of the economy. The success of SpaceX isn't doing to change that. Do people really think that China will stop expanding it's own space infrastructure just because of SpaceX?
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#6
by
savuporo
on 10 Jun, 2014 22:09
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Do people really think that China will stop expanding it's own space infrastructure just because of SpaceX?
No, but SpaceX working out might give them slightly different ideas about what kind of rocket technology to invest in in the future. Whats next once Long March 5 finally gets off the ground ?
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#7
by
malenfant
on 10 Jun, 2014 22:28
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What is the goal of the Chinese space program?...
IMO? to demonstrate to the Chinese people that China is the leading superpower, that they are capable of organising to an extent that no other nation is able of any more and that therefore the CPC is doing a great job and needs to remain unhallenged.
First, there was this report of a CALT official saying that they couldn't match SpaceX published prices, which could be interpreted as meaning they did not believe the published prices.
http://science.slashdot.org/story/11/04/17/1958253/china-space-official-confounded-by-spacex-price
I think it's symptomatic of a larger assumption. I think Chinese space policy is predicated on the idea that the US and Russian government programs are completely moribund and that private spaceflight is unaffordable. Five years ago I might have agreed. Now less so.
...China seeds a diverse and successful space sector as part of the economy. The success of SpaceX isn't doing to change that. Do people really think that China will stop expanding it's own space infrastructure just because of SpaceX?
I probably phrased the question badly. I was thinking almost exclusively of the manned program which I suggest is purely political. They're always going to need comsats and military payloads, and to an increasing extent.
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#8
by
GalacticIntruder
on 10 Jun, 2014 22:53
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China will do what is does to all SV and US high tech, for industries it cares about. Make a China specific version of it for the Chinese consumers.
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#9
by
savuporo
on 18 Jun, 2014 17:39
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#10
by
heinkel174
on 26 Jun, 2014 01:39
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My gut feeling is that the ‘recoverable booster’ aims primarily to improve downrange safety, and they take the recover aspect much more seriously than the reuse one. China is making serious investment in fly-back boosters so I can’t see how a rudimentary parachute-down solution is attractive.
In another article they discussed the difficulty of ‘regain altitude control of jettisoned booster’. Well that sounds a bit like a solid booster. A liquid booster shouldn’t be terribly difficult to control with no thrust termination issue.
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#11
by
heinkel174
on 26 Jun, 2014 01:44
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Do people really think that China will stop expanding it's own space infrastructure just because of SpaceX?
No, but SpaceX working out might give them slightly different ideas about what kind of rocket technology to invest in in the future. Whats next once Long March 5 finally gets off the ground ?
Definitely. I noticed a surge of technical articles discussing VTVL booster recovery and clustering small inexpensive engines over the past year or two. That can’t be a coincidence
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