SpaceX ups prices with almost 10%.

[john smith 19]

You guys are drifting a bit IMHO.

Fair point. 

For a comment from Shotwell on Spacex prices I suggest people look at her presentation on the locked thread on the Spacex board. At around 14:00 she states total revenues per launch are about $100m, which is actually about what Arianspace have charged.

Of course if you can side step the need for any of those "trimmings" and your payload is small enough you can fly F9 and (presumably) get quite a bargain.

Of course what sort of deal the DoD will get (and in the same speech she confirms that NSS launches are the biggest sector of the US launch market, so you'd be crazy not to pursue it as part of your business plans).

[Jim]

But it can be because (at some point in the trajectory) the payload will damage the LV and on an EELV that limit is a lot lower than on a Russian or a Spacex LV.

No, because of 1.25 and the design constraints.  Payloads never get that close to damaging the LV.  Never seen that happen since 2000 and I can ask if it has ever happened since the 80's. 

What the LV gets out of coupled loads deals with control stability and not loads.

[john smith 19]

No, because of 1.25 and the design constraints.  Payloads never get that close to damaging the LV.  Never seen that happen since 2000 and I can ask if it has ever happened since the 80's. 

What the LV gets out of coupled loads deals with control stability and not loads.

Which is a function of what counter loads have to be exerted to counter loads over what time scale. But those loads are moving targets throughout the flight.

However this is indeed off topic for this thread so more on topic would be if you see this as the beginning of Spacex accepting they cannot sustain their relatively low prices or simply a long overdue inflation correction?

[Robotbeat]

...
However this is indeed off topic for this thread so more on topic would be if you see this as the beginning of Spacex accepting they cannot sustain their relatively low prices or simply a long overdue inflation correction?

That could be because I (and others) already affirmed that it's simply inflation (combined with a more capable vehicle).

[Jcc]

Don't you think supply and demand have something to do with price? 

They have 50 launches on the manifest and can't launch them fast enough. Demand is greater than supply.

[Robotbeat]

Don't you think supply and demand have something to do with price? 

They have 50 launches on the manifest and can't launch them fast enough. Demand is greater than supply.

Then the price would be higher. But really, the reason they have a big manifest and can't launch them fast enough is partially because they can't launch them as fast as they said they could (yet!!). So it's not exactly a good thing right now.

[john smith 19]

Then the price would be higher. But really, the reason they have a big manifest and can't launch them fast enough is partially because they can't launch them as fast as they said they could (yet!!). So it's not exactly a good thing right now.

True. Their goal is to launch twice a month but part of the issue is can they do that sustainably for every month?

Time will tell on that one.

That could be because I (and others) already affirmed that it's simply inflation (combined with a more capable vehicle).

That's my view also but the LV services market is not exactly known for its low inflation rates, given the estimated ULA price rises compared to the US inflation rate (even odder given most of the part are made by US workers in the US, so no wild exchange rate fluctuations to deal with).

[Robotbeat]

If you take into account the improved GTO performance, then regular inflation (ie core CPI, not "aerospace inflation") is enough to explain the entire price increase.

[Prober]

Then the price would be higher. But really, the reason they have a big manifest and can't launch them fast enough is partially because they can't launch them as fast as they said they could (yet!!). So it's not exactly a good thing right now.

True. Their goal is to launch twice a month but part of the issue is can they do that sustainably for every month?

Time will tell on that one.

we also were told recently that 10 more launches would happen this year.   We now know that also was a hollow statement.

[Chris Bergin]

I can summarize this thread via this:



Locked.