SpaceX's Reisman ready for the next giant leap with Dragon V2

[Chris Bergin]

http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2014/06/spacexs-reisman-next-giant-leap-dragon-v2/

Article one from Helo's great video of the post Dragon V2 event. Standalone thread, to allow posts specific to what Dr. Reisman covered and to allow us to build threads to spread the load.

[yg1968]

Good article. On the issue of downselect, it is possible that the downselect will not happen right away. CCtCap allows for downselect in a later phase of CCtCap.   

See this link:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=32412.msg1186622#msg1186622

[Llian Rhydderch]

http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2014/06/spacexs-reisman-next-giant-leap-dragon-v2/

Article one from Helo's great video of the post Dragon V2 event. Standalone thread, to allow posts specific to what Dr. Reisman covered and to allow us to build threads to spread the load.

Great article, Chris!  That is a very solid narrative working in the technical facts we know, especially the Reisman-confirmed subset, while leaving more of what we now know to be expanded from the great interview our very own intrepid reporter Helodriver brought back from Hawthorne.

I really like your approach of doing a series of articles on the DV2, and expect them to be far ahead of the mainstream space press for technical content and veracity after you are complete in the next week or two.

Cheers,
 Llian

[brihath]

Chris- Awesome article.  NASASpaceflight.com continues to stay ahead of the power curve WRT to timely and accurate Space reporting!  Thanks.

[Chris Bergin]

Thanks guys! All I need is content, tank up on sandwiches and I'll write 'till my fingers drop off!

And yes, the downselect isn't an immediate threat and it's good they are holding back on that as much as possible. It's going to come at some point, however, sadly.

[Rocket Science]

Thanks guys! All I need is content, tank up on sandwiches and I'll write 'till my fingers drop off!

And yes, the downselect isn't an immediate threat and it's good they are holding back on that as much as possible. It's going to come at some point, however, sadly.

Great article Chris! Kudos to Helodriver for asking great questions and getting some nice new info...

[docmordrid]

Very good article Chris, and YES!! - Helodriver did a great job at the V2 event.   

[AndyX]

Really enjoyed that. Didn't know they will try the Soyuz/Progress six hour rendezvous!

[yg1968]

And yes, the downselect isn't an immediate threat and it's good they are holding back on that as much as possible. It's going to come at some point, however, sadly.

Yes, I agree. I am hoping that they will not downselect until they award CRS2. CRS2 awards were originally planned for February 2015 but it might get pushed by a few months (probably to mid-2015).  The logic for delaying downselection until at least mid-2015 would be to provide continuity for new CRS2 entrants (Boeing and SNC).

P.S. The due date for the proposals for CRS2 was pushed by 4 months. So it's logical to assume that the award date for CRS2 will also get pushed by 4 months. See this thread:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=34093.msg1203648#msg1203648

[Chris Bergin]

And yes, the downselect isn't an immediate threat and it's good they are holding back on that as much as possible. It's going to come at some point, however, sadly.

Yes, I agree. I am hoping that they will not downselect until they award CRS2. CRS2 awards were originally planned for February 2015 but it might get pushed by a few months (probably to mid-2015).  The logic for delaying downselection until at least mid-2015 would be to provide continuity for new CRS2 entrants (Boeing and SNC).

P.S. The due date for the proposals for CRS2 was pushed by 4 months. So it's logical to assume that the award date for CRS2 will also get pushed by 4 months. See this thread:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=34093.msg1203648#msg1203648

That would be pretty good, but it's been intimated to me that they would rather downselect and increase funding as the IOC date is the priority.

And they'd be right. Why part fund three when they could look to accelerate two.

[Chris Bergin]

Garrett Reisman retweeted the article!

[somepitch]

Garrett Reisman retweeted the article!

Gotta love all the public NSF love by SpaceX'ers recently!

[Lobo]

Very good info. 

I still tend to think that Elon plans to push the schedule up as much as humanly possible, in order to take advantage of the current Russian issues. 
I think I remember a quote from Elon awhile back that said once the crew version of Dragon was ready, they'd retire the old Dragon so they could fly just one craft, in a cargo and crew version.  The animation showed a v1 Dragon at the ISS when the V2 gets there, but that could just be for reference.  So you can see how the two are different.  Especially since the V1 dragon still has it's pop out solar panels which I though they were planning on going away from in the near future?

So, I wonder if we'll see a V2 dragon on a COTS mission in the near future, rigged with a life support system, and landing propulsively.  Then a presser where Elon comes out and says something like, "That Dragon V2 that just landed was fully capable of carrying a crew and returning them safely to Earth.  As soon as we finish adding the crew access arm to the tower at LC-39A, and finish our pad abort test of the LAS system (in X-amount of time) , there'd be absolutely no reason for another US crew to fly on a Russian Soyuz." 
Which would undoubtedly cause a flurry of press and political questions to start being asked.  And none of the other two commercial crew condendors could be ready that soon, as they are chugging along at the rate of the NASA milestone awards.

Elon seems to like to stir the pot like that.

[docmordrid]

Garrett Reisman retweeted the article!

Gotta love all the public NSF love by SpaceX'ers recently!

Guess we'll all have to chip in on that  pony for Chris

[Jdeshetler]

Garrett Reisman retweeted the article!

Are you going to give him a lifetime L2 membership? 

[StephenB]

Thanks guys! All I need is content, tank up on sandwiches and I'll write 'till my fingers drop off!

And yes, the downselect isn't an immediate threat and it's good they are holding back on that as much as possible. It's going to come at some point, however, sadly.

At a later point though, the programs will be more advanced with some spectacular testing done and on YouTube, and one can only hope that could result in shaking loose additional funding.

[rcoppola]

Very good info. 

I still tend to think that Elon plans to push the schedule up as much as humanly possible, in order to take advantage of the current Russian issues. 
I think I remember a quote from Elon awhile back that said once the crew version of Dragon was ready, they'd retire the old Dragon so they could fly just one craft, in a cargo and crew version.  The animation showed a v1 Dragon at the ISS when the V2 gets there, but that could just be for reference.  So you can see how the two are different.  Especially since the V1 dragon still has it's pop out solar panels which I though they were planning on going away from in the near future?

So, I wonder if we'll see a V2 dragon on a COTS mission in the near future, rigged with a life support system, and landing propulsively.  Then a presser where Elon comes out and says something like, "That Dragon V2 that just landed was fully capable of carrying a crew and returning them safely to Earth.  As soon as we finish adding the crew access arm to the tower at LC-39A, and finish our pad abort test of the LAS system (in X-amount of time) , there'd be absolutely no reason for another US crew to fly on a Russian Soyuz." 
Which would undoubtedly cause a flurry of press and political questions to start being asked.  And none of the other two commercial crew condendors could be ready that soon, as they are chugging along at the rate of the NASA milestone awards.

Elon seems to like to stir the pot like that.

Elon mentioned, post D2 announcement I believe, that they do intend to phase out D1 over the next few years and have D2 provide both functions. Until D2 is ready though, they will continue to develop both D1 & D2 separately.

[Lar]

Garrett Reisman retweeted the article!

That's awesome!

Gentle reader, have YOU retweeted  and FB shared this great article??? It's s easy to do. Just go to the bottom, click on the icon, add some pithy remark and away you go.  Everyone reading this thread and telling Chris how great the article is hopefully already did.

Spread the goodness that is NSF to your circle of friends.  Because NSF **IS** ahead of the curve and gaining.

Garrett Reisman retweeted the article!

Are you going to give him a lifetime L2 membership? 

Space industry professionals are eligible for L2 on providing proof of their employment.

[Razvan]

Reading Dr. Reisman's enlightning article, I am pretty sure NASA will say: "Show me the Dragon..."
And secondly, I now believe all that shutting down Space Shuttle program has been an intelligent decision...

[yg1968]

And yes, the downselect isn't an immediate threat and it's good they are holding back on that as much as possible. It's going to come at some point, however, sadly.

Yes, I agree. I am hoping that they will not downselect until they award CRS2. CRS2 awards were originally planned for February 2015 but it might get pushed by a few months (probably to mid-2015).  The logic for delaying downselection until at least mid-2015 would be to provide continuity for new CRS2 entrants (Boeing and SNC).

P.S. The due date for the proposals for CRS2 was pushed by 4 months. So it's logical to assume that the award date for CRS2 will also get pushed by 4 months. See this thread:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=34093.msg1203648#msg1203648

That would be pretty good, but it's been intimated to me that they would rather downselect and increase funding as the IOC date is the priority.

And they'd be right. Why part fund three when they could look to accelerate two.

In the FY 2015 Budget, the Administration indicated that it was looking into extending CCiCap into FY 2015. So obviously, there is a willingness to delay downselection into FY 2015. See this link:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=34177.msg1170708#msg1170708

See also this link where the commercial crew office says that it is trying to coordinate CCtCap and CRS2:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=34093.msg1189882#msg1189882

Downselecting this summer could mean less competition for CRS2 in 2015 which is not in NASA's best interest in my opinion. I am guessing that the downselection issue is still being debated between Congress and the Administration.

[RocketmanUS]

And yes, the downselect isn't an immediate threat and it's good they are holding back on that as much as possible. It's going to come at some point, however, sadly.

Yes, I agree. I am hoping that they will not downselect until they award CRS2. CRS2 awards were originally planned for February 2015 but it might get pushed by a few months (probably to mid-2015).  The logic for delaying downselection until at least mid-2015 would be to provide continuity for new CRS2 entrants (Boeing and SNC).

P.S. The due date for the proposals for CRS2 was pushed by 4 months. So it's logical to assume that the award date for CRS2 will also get pushed by 4 months. See this thread:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=34093.msg1203648#msg1203648

That would be pretty good, but it's been intimated to me that they would rather downselect and increase funding as the IOC date is the priority.

And they'd be right. Why part fund three when they could look to accelerate two.

Why down select when they could just increase funds. Less risk to get at least one launching crew sooner than later. Better PR if they want to show they are really planning on having American LEO crew capability. Instead of a down select choose one to get more funding to be ready sooner! ( At least that would be a good investment of American dollars compared to other uses by Congress. )

Dragon v2 lab ( crewed )?

Dragon v2 ( cargo ) CRS2
Dragon v2 ( crewed ), minimum one launch a year for ISS.
One of the other two for the other crew launch out of the two minimum needed.  Possible other crewed missions to LEO for NASA.

Then there is the commercial side.

[MP99]

Very good info. 

I still tend to think that Elon plans to push the schedule up as much as humanly possible, in order to take advantage of the current Russian issues. 
I think I remember a quote from Elon awhile back that said once the crew version of Dragon was ready, they'd retire the old Dragon so they could fly just one craft, in a cargo and crew version.  The animation showed a v1 Dragon at the ISS when the V2 gets there, but that could just be for reference.  So you can see how the two are different.  Especially since the V1 dragon still has it's pop out solar panels which I though they were planning on going away from in the near future?

So, I wonder if we'll see a V2 dragon on a COTS mission in the near future, rigged with a life support system, and landing propulsively.  Then a presser where Elon comes out and says something like, "That Dragon V2 that just landed was fully capable of carrying a crew and returning them safely to Earth.  As soon as we finish adding the crew access arm to the tower at LC-39A, and finish our pad abort test of the LAS system (in X-amount of time) , there'd be absolutely no reason for another US crew to fly on a Russian Soyuz." 
Which would undoubtedly cause a flurry of press and political questions to start being asked.  And none of the other two commercial crew condendors could be ready that soon, as they are chugging along at the rate of the NASA milestone awards.

Elon seems to like to stir the pot like that.

Elon mentioned, post D2 announcement I believe, that they do intend to phase out D1 over the next few years and have D2 provide both functions. Until D2 is ready though, they will continue to develop both D1 & D2 separately.

Elon said they'd overlap v1 cargo with crew v2 crew for a few years, at the Q&A.

Presumably for the larger cargo possible via berthing?

Cheers, Martin

[Don Mc0]

A really brilliant article, as was the first on V2. Really impressed with this vehicle, and the people involved.

Nice respect from Reisman in wanting another Commercial Crew company to make to test flights.

[Will]

Very good info. 

I still tend to think that Elon plans to push the schedule up as much as humanly possible, in order to take advantage of the current Russian issues. 
I think I remember a quote from Elon awhile back that said once the crew version of Dragon was ready, they'd retire the old Dragon so they could fly just one craft, in a cargo and crew version.  The animation showed a v1 Dragon at the ISS when the V2 gets there, but that could just be for reference.  So you can see how the two are different.  Especially since the V1 dragon still has it's pop out solar panels which I though they were planning on going away from in the near future?

So, I wonder if we'll see a V2 dragon on a COTS mission in the near future, rigged with a life support system, and landing propulsively.  Then a presser where Elon comes out and says something like, "That Dragon V2 that just landed was fully capable of carrying a crew and returning them safely to Earth.  As soon as we finish adding the crew access arm to the tower at LC-39A, and finish our pad abort test of the LAS system (in X-amount of time) , there'd be absolutely no reason for another US crew to fly on a Russian Soyuz." 
Which would undoubtedly cause a flurry of press and political questions to start being asked.  And none of the other two commercial crew condendors could be ready that soon, as they are chugging along at the rate of the NASA milestone awards.

Elon seems to like to stir the pot like that.

Elon mentioned, post D2 announcement I believe, that they do intend to phase out D1 over the next few years and have D2 provide both functions. Until D2 is ready though, they will continue to develop both D1 & D2 separately.

Elon said they'd overlap v1 cargo with crew v2 crew for a few years, at the Q&A.

Presumably for the larger cargo possible via berthing?

Cheers, Martin

Also, greater maximum payload and best use of finite US docking and berthing stations. Also, the owners of some unique payloads would prefer to fly on the most mature spacecraft.

[JBF]

I think you are misinterpreting what Elon said.  There will be 2 variants of the D2 a cargo one with a berthing hatch and a crew one with the docking hatch. 

[411rocket]

I think you are misinterpreting what Elon said.  There will be 2 variants of the D2 a cargo one with a berthing hatch and a crew one with the docking hatch.

Listen to Elon's interview again....... After a few years, there will be a cargo variant of D2.

[QuantumG]

Listen to Elon's interview again....... After a few years, there will be a cargo variant of D2.

So, around the time the ISS is retired?

[411rocket]

Listen to Elon's interview again....... After a few years, there will be a cargo variant of D2.

So, around the time the ISS is retired?

Maybe, to service other destinations, be it LEO, moon or elsewhere. I can only go by, what Elon has stated. Things may change in the meantime, so for now it is wait & see, on what transpires.

[JBF]

I think you are misinterpreting what Elon said.  There will be 2 variants of the D2 a cargo one with a berthing hatch and a crew one with the docking hatch.

Listen to Elon's interview again....... After a few years, there will be a cargo variant of D2.

yes a cargo variant, that means with the berthing hatch to allow large objects.  The crew variant can already carry cargo since the seats are removable.

[Razvan]

I agree. The DV2 is technically superior to the cargo one, and, besides, even the manned capsule will allow a double purpose: seats and cargo, as the case may be. In the end both alternatives, manned and cargo, will have to be reusable and super-draco needs to fit both.

It would be interesting, though, to investigate multiple destination capsules launch by one Launcher, say Heavy Falcon. I wonder, would SpaceX consider a common landing module, too. Something like: Lunar-, Asteroid-, Mars-Dragons, etc. would be parked in one Low orbit station and assembled together and attached to a more powerful Landing Module...

[Roy_H]

...And none of the other two commercial crew contenders could be ready that soon, as they are chugging along at the rate of the NASA milestone awards.

All are proceeding as fast as they can. If you look at the facts, it is SpaceX who has slipped the most behind their schedule. SpaceX originally scheduled the pad abort to Dec 2013 and maxQ abort about this time. SpaceX got the time extended to August, and now Elon states next year for maxQ abort test. Must have gotten another time extension.

[QuantumG]

All are proceeding as fast as they can. If you look at the facts, it is SpaceX who has slipped the most behind their schedule. SpaceX originally scheduled the pad abort to Dec 2013 and maxQ abort about this time. SpaceX got the time extended to August, and now Elon states next year for maxQ abort test. Must have gotten another time extension.

It's almost like doing paperwork isn't their forte.

[Chris Bergin]

...And none of the other two commercial crew contenders could be ready that soon, as they are chugging along at the rate of the NASA milestone awards.

All are proceeding as fast as they can. If you look at the facts, it is SpaceX who has slipped the most behind their schedule. SpaceX originally scheduled the pad abort to Dec 2013 and maxQ abort about this time. SpaceX got the time extended to August, and now Elon states next year for maxQ abort test. Must have gotten another time extension.

They've all slipped to be fair. December 2017 for USCV-1 says that.

[woods170]

...And none of the other two commercial crew contenders could be ready that soon, as they are chugging along at the rate of the NASA milestone awards.

All are proceeding as fast as they can. If you look at the facts, it is SpaceX who has slipped the most behind their schedule. SpaceX originally scheduled the pad abort to Dec 2013 and maxQ abort about this time. SpaceX got the time extended to August, and now Elon states next year for maxQ abort test. Must have gotten another time extension.

Respectfully, I disagree. Boeing has slipped just as much. PDR slipped 8 months. CDR for CST-100 was a full year late.
The pad abort test for CST-100 was planned for Q3-2013. But as of right now, it isn't even part of CCiCap milestones for Boeing; it will be deferred to the next phase (CCtCap) meaning that it will slip at least a year.
Stating that one Commercial Crew partner is slipping more than the others is pointless. It is as Chris pointed out: they are all slipping.

[Elmar Moelzer]

I think the lack of funding is in part responsible for the slips. Less money for milestones in a timeframe means less milestones achieved in the timeframe.
That's the way it is. Bolden has said as much too. Don't blame the commercial crew providers, blame congress!

[InfraNut2]

I think the lack of funding is in part responsible for the slips. Less money for milestones in a timeframe means less milestones achieved in the timeframe.
That's the way it is. Bolden has said as much too. Don't blame the commercial crew providers, blame congress!

I agree that funding is the main reason, but it is not the only one.

Big development projects like this invariable encounters many problems that need solving and always needs more time to finish than the sum of the tasks known at the outset. Experienced engineers can usually roughly estimate the magnitude of such delays and build appropriate margins into the estimates, unless there are large unresolved uncertainties remaining from the pre-project (spec and prelim design), in which case all bets are off.

In the case of Commercial Crew (and COTS) aggressive schedules (low margins) were intentionally set to avoid complacency and keep up pressure to move forward at high speed. Some milestone delays had to result from this that could have been avoided if more realistic schedules were set, but by doing it this way, overall progress has been faster than it would have been otherwise.

So to sum up: there are delays from the development side too, but they have mostly (*) been expected results from the way this program is run with a strategy expected to optimize overall progress.

(*) The degree to which the encountered delays has been expected from the process (after accounting for the founding shortfall) vs being less-than-expected competitor performance is of course subjective to a large degree unless you have deep in sight into the process.

And while talking about subjectivity: I subjectively think that while there are a few tasks that need(ed) some extra effort to work through, the overall performance of the competitors and the C3PO have been impressive. Besides: they have had to deal with expectations that were much higher than for comparative programs, especially after COTS, and its partially their own fault for setting such aggressive program goals and project deadlines.

[Rocket Science]

I think the lack of funding is in part responsible for the slips. Less money for milestones in a timeframe means less milestones achieved in the timeframe.
That's the way it is. Bolden has said as much too. Don't blame the commercial crew providers, blame congress!

The funding is there, it’s just going to Russia for Soyuz instead of being spent at home. Kind of coincidental that Russia wants to pull out of ISS not too long after the US Commercial Crew vehicles come on line. They know that the aerospace welfare program is over so they’re leaving...

[JasonAW3]

Guys,  I'm really glad that SpaceX has got the Dragon 2 ready for testing, but dang it HURRY UP!

I wanna go to Mars and I ain't getting any younger... Yet!

[sghill]

I'm surprised not to see this posted already:

https://twitter.com/astro_g_dogg/status/474253985193271296

Dragon is coming to DC!

Twitter: approx. 2:30 pm
Garrett Reisman
‏@astro_g_dogg
"Heads up to all of you in the DC area- our Crew Dragon spaceship is headed your way for public display!"

[Sean Lynch]

I think the lack of funding is in part responsible for the slips. Less money for milestones in a timeframe means less milestones achieved in the timeframe.
That's the way it is. Bolden has said as much too. Don't blame the commercial crew providers, blame congress!

The funding is there, it’s just going to Russia for Soyuz instead of being spent at home. Kind of coincidental that Russia wants to pull out of ISS not too long after the US Commercial Crew vehicles come on line. They know that the aerospace welfare program is over so they’re leaving...

Rogozin has said as much in that Russia won't be seeing profits from ISS.
Bolden told the House Space Subcommittee that had Commercial Crew had full funding requested all along that Astronauts would be launching from US soil in 2015. I recall him also mentioning that sequestration/budget delays impacted payment schedules as well.

[kirghizstan]

I'm surprised not to see this posted already:

https://twitter.com/astro_g_dogg/status/474253985193271296

Dragon is coming to DC!

Twitter: approx. 2:30 pm
Garrett Reisman
‏@astro_g_dogg
"Heads up to all of you in the DC area- our Crew Dragon spaceship is headed your way for public display!"

do we know when, i'm going to be in DC for a week 2 weeks from now

[Alpha Control]

I'm surprised not to see this posted already:

https://twitter.com/astro_g_dogg/status/474253985193271296

Dragon is coming to DC!

Twitter: approx. 2:30 pm
Garrett Reisman
‏@astro_g_dogg
"Heads up to all of you in the DC area- our Crew Dragon spaceship is headed your way for public display!"

Now that will be worth seeing! I saw Orion up close, prior to the Presidential Inauguration (one of the benefits of working in downtown Washington).  I will be there with camera in hand for Dragon V2!

[JBF]

This actually annoys me unless it's a different one.  By sending flight hardware down there you just delay how long it will take to refurb it and get it ready for flight.

[GalacticIntruder]

This actually annoys me unless it's a different one.  By sending flight hardware down there you just delay how long it will take to refurb it and get it ready for flight.

Yep, but none of that matters if SpaceX is not selected in the next round. It is all about marketing and lobbying, until then. Boeing is great at lobbying, but SpaceX is better at PR. A battle in DC.

[Lobo]

Very good info. 

I still tend to think that Elon plans to push the schedule up as much as humanly possible, in order to take advantage of the current Russian issues. 
I think I remember a quote from Elon awhile back that said once the crew version of Dragon was ready, they'd retire the old Dragon so they could fly just one craft, in a cargo and crew version.  The animation showed a v1 Dragon at the ISS when the V2 gets there, but that could just be for reference.  So you can see how the two are different.  Especially since the V1 dragon still has it's pop out solar panels which I though they were planning on going away from in the near future?

So, I wonder if we'll see a V2 dragon on a COTS mission in the near future, rigged with a life support system, and landing propulsively.  Then a presser where Elon comes out and says something like, "That Dragon V2 that just landed was fully capable of carrying a crew and returning them safely to Earth.  As soon as we finish adding the crew access arm to the tower at LC-39A, and finish our pad abort test of the LAS system (in X-amount of time) , there'd be absolutely no reason for another US crew to fly on a Russian Soyuz." 
Which would undoubtedly cause a flurry of press and political questions to start being asked.  And none of the other two commercial crew condendors could be ready that soon, as they are chugging along at the rate of the NASA milestone awards.

Elon seems to like to stir the pot like that.

Elon mentioned, post D2 announcement I believe, that they do intend to phase out D1 over the next few years and have D2 provide both functions. Until D2 is ready though, they will continue to develop both D1 & D2 separately.

Elon said they'd overlap v1 cargo with crew v2 crew for a few years, at the Q&A.

Presumably for the larger cargo possible via berthing?

Cheers, Martin

That's all well and good, but don't be too suprised if one Dv2 goes up in place of a Dv1 sooner rather than later, even if it's not taking over just then.  That's how you showcase the vehicle on NASA's dime.  Show case it berthing with the ISS (or possibly even docking if NASA givens them permission to do a COTS mission with the docking port rather than CBM), show it operating, show it returning to Earth doing a precision landing somewhere on the ground (probably somewhere at Edwards AFB would be my guess for the first test landings.)  Then assuming all goes well, they'll do a PR blitz about it while flying Dv1 the next mission. 
They'll probably have a stock of Dv1's at the ready that will need flown out while production is being switched over to the production Dv2 only.  And that'll keep NASA happy to keep flying the "proven" hardware, just in case there's any bugs with Dv2.  But once that first Dv2 lands propulsively at EAFB, Elon will start banging the drum about it being ready to take US astronauts to the ISS and stop relying on the Russians immediately if NASA/Congress lets them.  Trying to prompt an early down select to just them via some sort of Congressional authorization of change to the existing commercial crew contract in order to allow it. 

Just my gut.

[Lobo]

I think you are misinterpreting what Elon said.  There will be 2 variants of the D2 a cargo one with a berthing hatch and a crew one with the docking hatch.

Listen to Elon's interview again....... After a few years, there will be a cargo variant of D2.

yes a cargo variant, that means with the berthing hatch to allow large objects.  The crew variant can already carry cargo since the seats are removable.

@this.  And in fact, would make a much better optic for SpaceX's bid to be the commercial crew provider.  They'll already have a crew ready spacecraft launching from a crew capable pad, flying to the ISS, and docking at the crew port, while the other competators are a couple years from being able to do that.  Such a COTS mission would actually be a full up unmanned crew test mission, especially if launching from 39A with a crew access arm installed on the FSS, and the old STS egress slide wires moved up to allow Dragon crew emergency egress.

As long as there's no cargo on that mission manifest that needs the wider berthing port.  In which case you send Dv2 up on a different COTS mission which has cargo that can all go through the docking port.
It would also allow a SpaceX cargo mission while either the JAXA HTV or OSC Cygnus was berthed at the berthing port.  The US docking port isn't currently being used for anything since STS-135, is it?
Could allow two US cargo missions to be going on at the same time and allow more scheduling flexibility.

Elon could then say that the US has the capability to send up crews to the ISS on a domestic spacecraft and don't need the Russians any more.  All they is for NASA to give SpaceX the "go" order.  Good optics and PR.

Dv1 could then go back to doing the COTS missions while SpaceX studies all of the telemetry from the mission, and irons out any bugs.  But the statement would have been made.

[A_M_Swallow]

Using Dragon V2 on a CRS cargo mission would have the effect of flight testing the NASA Docking Port.  That is a valid experiment.
As a CRS flight NASA can request the Dragon V2 repeat the same manoeuvres as the COTS 2 test flight, just replacing the berthing with a docking.  Repeating that safety check of the new hardware on an manned flight will annoy people.

The NASA Administrator can then tell Congress that he has struck a deal with the space craft manufactures that speeds up Commercial Crew as they requested.

[luinil]

That can be done only if you limit the cargo to sizes that can pass through the docking port.

[kch]

That can be done only if you limit the cargo to sizes that can pass through the docking port.

... as Lobo noted above.   

[luinil]

you're right ^^;

[groundbound]

I'm surprised not to see this posted already:

https://twitter.com/astro_g_dogg/status/474253985193271296

Dragon is coming to DC!

Twitter: approx. 2:30 pm
Garrett Reisman
‏@astro_g_dogg
"Heads up to all of you in the DC area- our Crew Dragon spaceship is headed your way for public display!"

Will they be landing it somewhere on the mall? 

[ChrisWilson68]

Very good info. 

I still tend to think that Elon plans to push the schedule up as much as humanly possible, in order to take advantage of the current Russian issues. 
I think I remember a quote from Elon awhile back that said once the crew version of Dragon was ready, they'd retire the old Dragon so they could fly just one craft, in a cargo and crew version.  The animation showed a v1 Dragon at the ISS when the V2 gets there, but that could just be for reference.  So you can see how the two are different.  Especially since the V1 dragon still has it's pop out solar panels which I though they were planning on going away from in the near future?

So, I wonder if we'll see a V2 dragon on a COTS mission in the near future, rigged with a life support system, and landing propulsively.  Then a presser where Elon comes out and says something like, "That Dragon V2 that just landed was fully capable of carrying a crew and returning them safely to Earth.  As soon as we finish adding the crew access arm to the tower at LC-39A, and finish our pad abort test of the LAS system (in X-amount of time) , there'd be absolutely no reason for another US crew to fly on a Russian Soyuz." 
Which would undoubtedly cause a flurry of press and political questions to start being asked.  And none of the other two commercial crew condendors could be ready that soon, as they are chugging along at the rate of the NASA milestone awards.

Elon seems to like to stir the pot like that.

Elon mentioned, post D2 announcement I believe, that they do intend to phase out D1 over the next few years and have D2 provide both functions. Until D2 is ready though, they will continue to develop both D1 & D2 separately.

Elon said they'd overlap v1 cargo with crew v2 crew for a few years, at the Q&A.

Presumably for the larger cargo possible via berthing?

Cheers, Martin

That's all well and good, but don't be too suprised if one Dv2 goes up in place of a Dv1 sooner rather than later, even if it's not taking over just then.  That's how you showcase the vehicle on NASA's dime.  Show case it berthing with the ISS (or possibly even docking if NASA givens them permission to do a COTS mission with the docking port rather than CBM), show it operating, show it returning to Earth doing a precision landing somewhere on the ground (probably somewhere at Edwards AFB would be my guess for the first test landings.)  Then assuming all goes well, they'll do a PR blitz about it while flying Dv1 the next mission. 
They'll probably have a stock of Dv1's at the ready that will need flown out while production is being switched over to the production Dv2 only.  And that'll keep NASA happy to keep flying the "proven" hardware, just in case there's any bugs with Dv2.  But once that first Dv2 lands propulsively at EAFB, Elon will start banging the drum about it being ready to take US astronauts to the ISS and stop relying on the Russians immediately if NASA/Congress lets them.  Trying to prompt an early down select to just them via some sort of Congressional authorization of change to the existing commercial crew contract in order to allow it. 

Just my gut.

Your gut disagrees with what Musk said.

Musk said production of Dragon V1 and V2 would go on at the same time for several years.  Not build up a stockpile of V1s and then switch to V2.  Make both at the same time.  That's already what's happening today.

You came up with this theory and posted it originally before you realized Musk had said that.  Now that you do know, you're trying to save your theory and rationalize the new information to fit that theory.  You'd do better to be willing to pay more attention to new information and less to your gut.

[ChrisWilson68]

This actually annoys me unless it's a different one.  By sending flight hardware down there you just delay how long it will take to refurb it and get it ready for flight.

Yep, but none of that matters if SpaceX is not selected in the next round. It is all about marketing and lobbying, until then. Boeing is great at lobbying, but SpaceX is better at PR. A battle in DC.

I think this trip is more about protecting funding for commercial crew in Congress, not about trying to beat Boeing to be selected for commercial crew.  The NASA people making the downselect decision know all about the details of Dragon and aren't likely to be swayed by this type of show.  They have also probably visited the SpaceX factory multiple times and seen Dragon there.  This kind of publicity tour is what you'd expect to get the attention of people in Congress who haven't been paying much attention to space issues.

[Llian Rhydderch]

This actually annoys me unless it's a different one.  By sending flight hardware down there you just delay how long it will take to refurb it and get it ready for flight.

But SpaceX is a private entity and therefore, their choices with respect to displays of their hardware are determined by them, except for any contractual provisions they might agree to with any of their paying customers.

[oiorionsbelt]

SpaceX have done this before with F1, here it is in DC

[sghill]

I'm surprised not to see this posted already:

https://twitter.com/astro_g_dogg/status/474253985193271296

Dragon is coming to DC!

Twitter: approx. 2:30 pm
Garrett Reisman
‏@astro_g_dogg
"Heads up to all of you in the DC area- our Crew Dragon spaceship is headed your way for public display!"

And an update:


Garrett Reisman
‏@astro_g_dogg
"Standby everyone!  I don't want to get ahead of our team.  Official times and places will be announced by SpaceX very soon."

[Lobo]

Your gut disagrees with what Musk said.

Musk said production of Dragon V1 and V2 would go on at the same time for several years.  Not build up a stockpile of V1s and then switch to V2.  Make both at the same time.  That's already what's happening today.

You came up with this theory and posted it originally before you realized Musk had said that.  Now that you do know, you're trying to save your theory and rationalize the new information to fit that theory.  You'd do better to be willing to pay more attention to new information and less to your gut.

Yes, hence why it's my "gut". 

Musk also specifically said previously that they'd switch cargo over to the crew dragon once it was ready so they weren't building two different vehicles. 

MP99 posted that there would be overlap for a couple of years.  And rcoppola posted that they intend to phase out D1 over the next couple of years, but not until D2 is ready.  I was posting based on their comments.  You are saying that "production" would go on for both for "several" years at the same time.  Which is something different.  Does anyone have his exact quote on this?  I didn't hear Elon remarks, so I was going on what others posted about it. 
I am not trying to rationalize anything to save any theory.  You'd do better not to make assumptions about my intent.

[Lobo]

That can be done only if you limit the cargo to sizes that can pass through the docking port.

... as Lobo noted above.   

Does anyone have any idea of what physical size of cargo items that Dragon has taken up so far?  From the pictures that I've seen of the interior of Dragon loaded with cargo, none of the packages looked like they needed the full width of the CBM port.  But that's just from looking a picture, so it's not much to go on.

Obviously it would depend on the cargo manifest for the mission on what COTS mission could possibly be used for a Dv2 docking port test mission.

[InfraNut2]

Does anyone have any idea of what physical size of cargo items that Dragon has taken up so far?  From the pictures that I've seen of the interior of Dragon loaded with cargo, none of the packages looked like they needed the full width of the CBM port.  But that's just from looking a picture, so it's not much to go on.

Obviously it would depend on the cargo manifest for the mission on what COTS mission could possibly be used for a Dv2 docking port test mission.

I'll give the start of an answer. Others please feel free to add to it.

Most cargo bags, the GLACIER/MERLIN and the like (double/single middeck locker sized stuff) are only around 20in or less on the side and fits relatively easily through the docking tunnel.

The exception is the M01 bags (21"x32.2") that probably are too big to fit (they are almost 1m (~0.976m) diagonally), but I am not sure if they are used for regular cargo transfer, or if they do whether they always contain smaller bags that would fit individually.

The biggest item sent up that I know of is the EMU HUT sent up on the last dragon. That required redesign of the cargo rack(s) to fit, but it could probably be squeezed through without the packaging (didnt they transfer EMUs between shuttle and station?), but I might be wrong... Robonaut was also pretty big, but it should fit through without the packaging too, but maybe that was sent on a different vehicle (one of the last shuttles?).

(Rack size facilities have never been sent up on dragon, but they could probably fit one if the cargo accomodations were completely redesigned, but htere will obviusly be no way to transfer a rack without the big CBM hatch. Rack transfer is not needed unless HTV stops flying and someone decides to make additional rack(s) for ISS)

Anyone else know of any more cargo biggies?

Or more info like precise sizes to say for sure whether for example M01 bags or the EMU HUT could be squeezed through or not?

How narrow is the narrowest part of the PMAs (hatch?) or the NDS+APAS docking ports (without the alignment guides)?

edit: added some extra details and questions

[Coastal Ron]

Musk said production of Dragon V1 and V2 would go on at the same time for several years.

What he was originally quoted as saying was "Over time we expect Dragon 1 to be phased out, but we're going to carry both of them in parallel for at least a few years."

My interpretation was that V1 and V2 would be operational at the same time, not that they will necessarily be in production at the same time.  No doubt they could produce them both at the same time, but we don't know yet if SpaceX will be proposing using some of the later model once-flown V1's for the CRS-2 contract, and that could mean the V1's will end after their CRS-1 production set is complete.

My $0.02

[robertross]

Cool article Chris!

Of course it is my firm belief that Battlestar Galactica is NOT fictitious, but just a forgotten bit of our own history 

I firmly believe in Mr. Reisman's statement concerning the downselect: “Frankly, it’s in NASA’s interest for there to be more than one,” he added. “You always want to have a plan B.

[beancounter]

Cool article Chris!

Of course it is my firm belief that Battlestar Galactica is NOT fictitious, but just a forgotten bit of our own history 

I firmly believe in Mr. Reisman's statement concerning the downselect: “Frankly, it’s in NASA’s interest for there to be more than one,” he added. “You always want to have a plan B.

Except that they ignore it when it comes to their own programs.  MER is the last example of a redundancy that I can think of.
Cheers.

[Lar]

Cool article Chris!

Of course it is my firm belief that Battlestar Galactica is NOT fictitious, but just a forgotten bit of our own history 

I firmly believe in Mr. Reisman's statement concerning the downselect: “Frankly, it’s in NASA’s interest for there to be more than one,” he added. “You always want to have a plan B.

Except that they ignore it when it comes to their own programs.  MER is the last example of a redundancy that I can think of.
Cheers

Don't confuse what is in NASA's interest with what NASA does.

[Kabloona]

Don't confuse what is in NASA's interest with what NASA does.

Or, more importantly, what Congress does.