It will be optimized for Mars. But again, who cares? Until the day at least when someone comes with a solution that is more cost effective for the moon. I don't see that happen any time soon.
Yes, propellant is a problem assuming ISRU on Mars and no ISRU on the moon. One way around that is launch two vehicles on a moon trajectory. One being a tanker. Transfer fuel from the tanker after TLI and let the tanker return on a free or nearly free return trajectory. More expensive than Mars maybe, but maybe not because the MCT will be back much sooner for reuse. But try to beat the per ton price to the moon with any other archictecture.
Quote from: CuddlyRocket on 06/12/2014 07:00 amQuote from: RanulfC on 06/11/2014 06:17 pmThe problem with making "Mars" the driver behind design for HSF is that a "dedicated" Mars vehicle and transport system (such as being discussed here for the MCT) has very little utility or ability to do transportation missions to other destinations such as the Moon or an asteroid without serious redesign or large "wasted" capacity per flight. So while MCT COULD land on the Moon to "prove-a-point" it won't be as capable of efficent as a vehicle DESIGNED to do so.Who cares? As long as it's not more expensive than any alternative (if there is one) and it can do the mission what's it matter if there's spare capacity or it's not optimally designed for that mission scenario?"Who cares" is a good question actually If the MCT is designed as is being discussed in that specific thread then landing it on the Moon, while possible to "prove-a-point" (funny but no one has commented on how ominus that sounds rather than reassuring ) would only be a "stunt" and prove that it would NEVER be "less expensive" than an alternate. If it has to carry all the "gear" for the entire trip that it would normally carry and USE on Mars but has no use on the Lunar mission, there is going to have to be extra propellant carried to deal with a fully propulsive mission profile.
Quote from: RanulfC on 06/11/2014 06:17 pmThe problem with making "Mars" the driver behind design for HSF is that a "dedicated" Mars vehicle and transport system (such as being discussed here for the MCT) has very little utility or ability to do transportation missions to other destinations such as the Moon or an asteroid without serious redesign or large "wasted" capacity per flight. So while MCT COULD land on the Moon to "prove-a-point" it won't be as capable of efficent as a vehicle DESIGNED to do so.Who cares? As long as it's not more expensive than any alternative (if there is one) and it can do the mission what's it matter if there's spare capacity or it's not optimally designed for that mission scenario?
The problem with making "Mars" the driver behind design for HSF is that a "dedicated" Mars vehicle and transport system (such as being discussed here for the MCT) has very little utility or ability to do transportation missions to other destinations such as the Moon or an asteroid without serious redesign or large "wasted" capacity per flight. So while MCT COULD land on the Moon to "prove-a-point" it won't be as capable of efficent as a vehicle DESIGNED to do so.
QuoteSpaceX optimises for cost, not performance. A Mars-optimised vehicle and transport system that can also work for the Moon may well be cheaper doing so than a separate Moon-optimised one through economies of scale.Now of course there are ways to help make such an architecture work at least "well" for both (or more) destinations, but you are going to run into "costs" if the vehicle is heavily "optimized" for delivery costs to any specific destination. If one only "cares" for Mars as a destination and optimizes "costs" for that particualr destination then the "cost" of going anywhere else is going to be that much higher.People have been "assuming" that MCT will be highly optimized towards Mars which would make it far less optimum for Lunar operations, in many cases to the point where it would not be cost effective to use to transport people/cargo anywhere BUT Mars
SpaceX optimises for cost, not performance. A Mars-optimised vehicle and transport system that can also work for the Moon may well be cheaper doing so than a separate Moon-optimised one through economies of scale.
"I" care because I'd really like to see SpaceX (and EM) avoid the "obvious" conclusion that being a "mutli-planet" species means "Earth-and-Mars" when it could mean so much more so easily Randy
Mars is dry, but the Moon is drier, and that matters. Mars has little atmosphere, but the Moon has far less, and that matters. Methane can be produced fairly easily on Mars. Try that on the Moon. Mars also has more gravity. We don't really know the long-term health effects of either Mars' or the Moon's gravity, but Mars gravity is closer to Earth's, so it may well be that Mars is significantly better for your health. Mars has a day-night cycle similar to Earth's. The Moon doesn't, and it is hard to bake in the direct sun for two weeks, then shiver through a two-week night.
The moon is closer from a travel time, and communication perspective but it's not that much closer from a deltaV perspective, as upthread analysis shows.
Going to the moon and back is harder delta-v wise if there is fuel ISRU on Mars and not on Luna.
... the requirements of a lunar lander/ascent vehicle are so vastly different from the requirements of a Mars lander/ascent vehicle that its counterproductive to try to combine them or use one to develop the other.It's like trying to develop a combination screwdriver and hammer, or trying to develop a screwdriver that will lead to a hammer. ...
Quote from: guckyfan on 06/04/2014 03:52 amGoing to the moon and back is harder delta-v wise if there is fuel ISRU on Mars and not on Luna. That difference cannot be granted until the lunar ice craters have been assayed and lunar prop ISRU disproven. If there is sufficient water ice on Luna, then the prop factory cannot be unilaterally granted to Mars, but not Luna.
But propellant is dirt cheap (relatively speaking, in this context). It's less than $250,000 for a F9. You can get an awful lot of 'extra-propellant' missions for the costs of developing an entirely separate lunar vehicle and transport system.
Not necessarily. There are costs incurred (and savings foregone) in having two separate vehicles and transport systems. These may well outweigh the additional costs due to a sub-optimal design for a lunar mission; especially if your reusable MCT is sat around doing nothing in the 15-20 months between its return to Earth and the next Mars launch window!
The question as to whether it is more economical to have multiple vehicle types optimised for various routes or a single one that is therefore sub-optimal for some routes is well understood in the airline industry; and the conclusion is that it is often the latter that is more profitable. And the difference usually comes down to the amortisation of fixed costs. In fact, it could well be more profitable overall for SpaceX to use the MCT to run lunar missions at a loss!
Quote"I" care because I'd really like to see SpaceX (and EM) avoid the "obvious" conclusion that being a "mutli-planet" species means "Earth-and-Mars" when it could mean so much more so easily I don't think SpaceX or Elon have drawn that conclusion. But they may well have drawn the conclusion that a Mars-optimised transport system is overall the most cost efficient way to go!
"I" care because I'd really like to see SpaceX (and EM) avoid the "obvious" conclusion that being a "mutli-planet" species means "Earth-and-Mars" when it could mean so much more so easily
Quote from: JohnFornaro on 06/13/2014 01:52 pmQuote from: guckyfan on 06/04/2014 03:52 amGoing to the moon and back is harder delta-v wise if there is fuel ISRU on Mars and not on Luna. That difference cannot be granted until the lunar ice craters have been assayed and lunar prop ISRU disproven. If there is sufficient water ice on Luna, then the prop factory cannot be unilaterally granted to Mars, but not Luna.I disagree. Assuming there is water on the moon is a fair assumption. But getting it from those cold traps is hard and requires very advanced technology. Then processing it to fuel and get it where it would be needed for launch is not easy again. Two weeks sun and then two weeks night is very harsh on a station or settlement also.On Mars water is at the places we would want to go anyway.So the proof is on those who want to go to the moon.
I disagree. Assuming there is water on the moon is a fair assumption. But getting it from those cold traps is hard and requires very advanced technology. Then processing it to fuel and get it where it would be needed for launch is not easy again. Two weeks sun and then two weeks night is very harsh on a station or settlement also.On Mars water is at the places we would want to go anyway.So the proof is on those who want to go to the moon.
That the "proof is on those who want to go to the Moon", is certainly true, if your several assumptions are correct:Assuming there is water on Mars is a fair assumption. Getting that water is easy and does not require very advanced technology. Then processing it to fuel and get it where it would be needed for launch is very easy again. Twelve hours of weak sun and then twelve hours of a very cold night is not at all harsh on a station or settlement.Are your assumptions as easy as you must be asserting?
Quote from: JohnFornaro on 06/13/2014 03:41 pmThat the "proof is on those who want to go to the Moon", is certainly true, if your several assumptions are correct:Assuming there is water on Mars is a fair assumption. Getting that water is easy and does not require very advanced technology. Then processing it to fuel and get it where it would be needed for launch is very easy again. Twelve hours of weak sun and then twelve hours of a very cold night is not at all harsh on a station or settlement.Are your assumptions as easy as you must be asserting?Yes certainly. That weak sunlight near the equator is about as much as Germany gets on average, probably more because of long time of clouds. When a Mars rover can find visible amounts of ice by scratching the surface it cannot be too hard to collect. The methods of transforming water and CO2 to methane and LOX are very easy, basic chemistry. The amount of energy needed is a lot in total but not that much assuming a two year window for production.Actually I see one major problem in getting the fuel from the production site a few hundred meters or a km to the launch vehicle while on the moon the distance would be a lot larger, hundreds of km if not more. I don't see a station right beside those cold spots. But that last assumption may be wrong.
Getting into OT-ISRU issues here but...JF:"Are your assumptions as easy as you must be asserting?GF:"Yes certainly."No, certainly Again, your "assuming" from a false basis that "water" is the key to any ISRU... Energy is actually the key and by "giving" yourself a two-year production "window" on Mars your ignoring the fact that much more can be done with a two-WEEK production window on the Moon. The "cold-traps" at the Lunar poles are a "nice-to-have" but they were never the basis of Lunar ISRU planning or study and you're ignoring past work in order to concentrate on a singular NEW Lunar development rather than the full situation.Don't make assumptions you can't support to support your point Randy
That the "proof is on those who want to go to the Moon", is certainly true...
So you assume extracting water from regolith? That's really going into exotic engineering. I am not following you there. And as you are right this is OT on this thread so let us stop.
Quote from: guckyfan on 06/13/2014 05:16 pmSo you assume extracting water from regolith? That's really going into exotic engineering. I am not following you there. And as you are right this is OT on this thread so let us stop.You're going to throw THAT argument out and then call for stopping??!!??
I have developed a notional MCT to go to Mars that has the following characteristics that can be launched with 2 250 MT Fully reusable SpaceX BFRs. The first one is the MCT and the second one tops off the fuel.13m diameter base, 15 Degree side walls, 20m tall (Big Dragon shaped capsule)30 MT MCT Empty weight, 70 MT Cargo, 228 MT of Fuel (CH4/LOX), 700 m3 of cargo/crew/systems volumeIt has 5.325 km/s delta velocity capability to Mars and 7.173 km/s back to Earth.As a thought experiment for this thread I wondered if it would be capable for a Moon mission.
* MCT Main engine would have to be reduced to a Super Draco equivalent. MCT Mars Launch engine would be too much thrust.
After fuelling in LEO, MCT with 70 mT cargo can get itself to EML-2 (<4 km/s?), with substantial residuals .IIRC, the round-trip EML2-surface-EML2, is in the ballpark of your 5.3 km/s capability, so after refuelling MCT can land its 70 mT on the surface then lift something close to that back to EML2 without refuelling on the surface. I'd suggest landing at beginning of Lunar night, and taking off not much after dawn in order not to boiloff the propellants...............MCT landing on the Moon is heavier than MCT landing on Mars (also carries ascent prop), so you can use the same propulsion without T:W issues.................Recovering those tanker stages could be fun, though!cheers, Martin
Quote from: MP99 on 06/16/2014 09:17 amAfter fuelling in LEO, MCT with 70 mT cargo can get itself to EML-2 (<4 km/s?), with substantial residuals .IIRC, the round-trip EML2-surface-EML2, is in the ballpark of your 5.3 km/s capability, so after refuelling MCT can land its 70 mT on the surface then lift something close to that back to EML2 without refuelling on the surface. I'd suggest landing at beginning of Lunar night, and taking off not much after dawn in order not to boiloff the propellants...............MCT landing on the Moon is heavier than MCT landing on Mars (also carries ascent prop), so you can use the same propulsion without T:W issues.................Recovering those tanker stages could be fun, though!cheers, MartinEML-2 might be an interesting staging point for reusable moonlanders flying between lunar surface and EML-2.MCT goes back to earth. No point in going through EML-2. My idea about refuelling is send one MCT and one tanker through TLI, refuel MCT in flight and let the tanker RTLS after looping around the moon with very little or no delta-v after TLI except for the landing burn, which is very small.
Let us look for a proper thread. Not here.
Edt: Actually no. I responded too early. I am not willing to argue on the basis of your assumptions.