Dragon 2 Grand-Reveal Premonition/Prediction For-The-Record Thread (Single Post)

[meekGee]

In advance of Musk's promised Dragon 2 reveal this coming Thursday, what's your best guess on what we'll find out?

One post per user, maybe we'll open it up to "Booyeah" type comments after the reveal.

Careful with information that you know through L2.  What happens in L2, stays in L2.  WHIL2SIL2.

[meekGee]

My personal guess:

SpaceX is eyeing Dragon for more than ISS work.
SpaceX likes full reusability, and does not like discarding the trunk and its subsystems.
-  Therefore, the trunk will become optional.

Dragon will carry more Batteries (since no solar panels - EM said so some time back)
Dragon will carry a sublimator instead of radiators (a guess)
We know the SD based LAS will need larger tanks
- Therefore, Dragon will become longer, with a full cross-section service bay in the back.

[AncientU]

My guess is that the former trunk will have the heat shield and legs, and not the dragon itself.  For parachute landings such as aborts, they'll eject the trunk and land just the capsule.  Trunk will remain unpressurized, but powered, and will carry the batteries.  At some stage, after EDL (on a pad) has become routine, the pressurized volume can/will extend to the full trunk.  I'd like to say it will be 5m diameter, but that's too much too soon.

[savuporo]

They'll rebrand it "Smaug"

[GalacticIntruder]

Back to my confusion on Dragon iterations.

The May 29 reveal is for Dragon mk 2. I don't think it will be too radical from their current Dragon mock-up, yet, but it might be close to being SpaceX flight ready by late 2015 (not NASA ready).

Is it not the case that the Dragon 2 powered lander is something quite different, and related to the DragonFly program?

[docmordrid]

1) the wind tunnel pic is close, but not  100% accurate.

2) trunk is evolving into two species; a service module and cargo carrier.

3) solar arrays on the trunk sides, not large panels, akin to how CST-100 has a small one at the rear of its SM to extend battery life.

4) integrated trunk a 30% possibility.

[Elmar Moelzer]

My predictions:
1. We will get to see the crewed version of the Dragon that will fly Astronauts to the ISS for Commercial Crew.

2. The external design of Dragon 2.0 will look somewhat different from Dragon 1.0 but the pressure vessel will be essentially the same, with the exception of a docking port instead of the berthing port. I think the whole vessel will appear slightly stretched compared to the original dragon and there will be more windows.

3. There will be 4 large "noses" protruding from the capsule that contain the Superdracos and maybe also the RCS engines. These noses will be arranged in a pattern with 2 symmetry axis, not just one (like some seem to assume), because I it would look odd otherwise.

4. These are attached as "modules" to the rest of the Dragon and can be detached or replaced easily.

Quite a bit more speculative (but hey, its fun):

5. The trunk will have a TPS, become reusable and will stay attached to the Dragon capsule for reentry and landing unless it is a LAS- situation in which case the capsule will detach from the trunk during the abort.

6. The legs will be attached to the trunk and not the actual capsule.

7. Dragon will be a lot more modular. There will be different trunk versions for different types of missions (batteries only, solar panels and batteries, larger trunk for more unpressurized cargo). Maybe even different legs for different landing scenarios.

8. Maybe they will even have different types of Superdraco modules that can be attached depending on the mission. Maybe some missions wont have Superdracos, but just the standard RCS (would probably save some weight).

[Burninate]

This still feels a bit early for full Dragon-Reusable, so here goes my predictions, with odds:

90% Launch escape system with chevron openings in little bumps in the sides, on all Dragon 2.0
30% Docking port on all modules, vs 30% docking adapter mounted on berthing port on all modules, vs 30% they keep launching Dragon 1.0 for cargo and use 2.0 for crew, vs 10% they mount berthing on 2.0-cargo and docking on 2.0-crew
70% No landing legs (for now), but plans to refit them later onto this very vehicle (2.1)
60% Reliant on small-ish parachute (for now), but with last-minute kick burn for calmer terrestrial landing, as Soyuz.  No guided descent *yet*, but preparations for it in 2.1
70% Seats which are bolt-on into a cargo housing, rather than 20% permanently arranged
80% Integral less-than-1-week of life support, at its most basic being a CO2/H2O adsorbant system and thermal control, in every 2.0
50% A larger pressure vessel, about 5m, with a 5.2m diameter trunk (size of payload faring), having an interior diameter at least large enough to carry a 4.4m diameter ISS module of minimal length.  Trunk will be modular, so multiple layers may launch to increase length.
50% Powered descent fuel will be stored in a large quasi-toroidal volume around the docking port, which may be a bolt-on collar, or it may be empty tanks surrounded by a faring in v2.0
75% Trunk will still be below the heatshield, and there will be either hydraulic or explosive separation in place in the event the launch escape is triggered.  Trunk will remain expendable.
85% Trunk will not carry atmospheric-descent fuel due to need to remain behind heatshield, but may have tanks & thrusters for exo-atmospheric use, in reboost & initial deorbit burn (A burn which needs to be relatively strong in guided descent to have a hope of accurately targetting the landing site within a few kilometers)

70% Dragon v2.0 will not be reusable pad-landing, but Dragon v2.1 based on a similar chassis, and launched with considerably more propellant in its tanks from a Falcon Heavy, will be. Dragon 2.0 introduces the chassis used for the Falcon Heavy orbital crew transport vehicle, which can be, on alternate missions, A) a pad-reusable commercial crew to ISS bus (from FH, full tanks spent in descent), or B) an expendable ocean-recovered competitor to the Orion (from FH, full tanks spent in orbit), or C) an expendable ocean-recovered commercial crew to ISS bus (from F9, almost empty tanks).

edit: Color-Coded Hindsight

This still feels a bit early for full Dragon-Reusable, so here goes my predictions, with odds:

90% Launch escape system with chevron openings in little bumps in the sides, on all Dragon 2.0
30% Docking port on all modules, vs 30% docking adapter mounted on berthing port on all modules, vs 30% they keep launching Dragon 1.0 for cargo and use 2.0 for crew, vs 10% they mount berthing on 2.0-cargo and docking on 2.0-crew
70% No landing legs (for now), but plans to refit them later onto this very vehicle (2.1)
60% Reliant on small-ish parachute (for now), but with last-minute kick burn for calmer terrestrial landing, as Soyuz.  No guided descent *yet*, but preparations for it in 2.1
70% Seats which are bolt-on into a cargo housing, rather than 20% permanently arranged
80% Integral less-than-1-week of life support, at its most basic being a CO2/H2O adsorbant system and thermal control, in every 2.0
50% A larger pressure vessel, about 5m, with a 5.2m diameter trunk (size of payload faring), having an interior diameter at least large enough to carry a 4.4m diameter ISS module of minimal length.  Trunk will be modular, so multiple layers may launch to increase length.
50% Powered descent fuel will be stored in a large quasi-toroidal volume around the docking port, which may be a bolt-on collar, or it may be empty tanks surrounded by a faring in v2.0
75% Trunk will still be below the heatshield, and there will be either hydraulic or explosive separation in place in the event the launch escape is triggered.  Trunk will remain expendable.
85% Trunk will not carry atmospheric-descent fuel due to need to remain behind heatshield, but may have tanks & thrusters for exo-atmospheric use, in reboost & initial deorbit burn (A burn which needs to be relatively strong in guided descent to have a hope of accurately targetting the landing site within a few kilometers)

70% Dragon v2.0 will not be reusable pad-landing, but Dragon v2.1 based on a similar chassis, and launched with considerably more propellant in its tanks from a Falcon Heavy, will be. Dragon 2.0 introduces the chassis used for the Falcon Heavy orbital crew transport vehicle, which can be, on alternate missions, A) a pad-reusable commercial crew to ISS bus (from FH, full tanks spent in descent), or B) an expendable ocean-recovered competitor to the Orion (from FH, full tanks spent in orbit), or C) an expendable ocean-recovered commercial crew to ISS bus (from F9, almost empty tanks).

[Darkseraph]

Well if its anything like the wind tunnel model its a pretty ugly beast (but what piece of space hardware outside of science fiction is known for its beauty?)

I don't think it will carry 7 people though. Elon Musk said it would be $20 Million per seat at 4 flights a year carrying 7 people. 2 crew rotations a year with 3-4 astronauts is more likely and considering there might be two providers Space X is looking at getting a single crew mission a year.. There are calls to go to year long crew stays on the ISS which makes demand for Dragon even less. It will cost nothing like $20 million, that's massive Hollywood accounting. But it will mean independent access from the Russians, so it probably worth it.

The initial version will land in the ocean.

[Jarnis]

Well if its anything like the wind tunnel model its a pretty ugly beast (but what piece of space hardware outside of science fiction is known for its beauty?)

I don't think it will carry 7 people though. Elon Musk said it would be $20 Million per seat at 4 flights a year carrying 7 people. 2 crew rotations a year with 3-4 astronauts is more likely and considering there might be two providers Space X is looking at getting a single crew mission a year.. There are calls to go to year long crew stays on the ISS which makes demand for Dragon even less. It will cost nothing like $20 million, that's massive Hollywood accounting. But it will mean independent access from the Russians, so it probably worth it.

The initial version will land in the ocean.

I expect it to be able to carry 7 if filled with self-loading freight only, but that the demonstrated config will be seating 4 and have some room for "carry-on" cargo as well. Might be shown diagrams on how to fit it for carrying 7 and/or showing a very modular interior where seats and cargo can be swapped easily enough.

This is based on current ISS not needing a crew of 7 for crew rotations, but with possible future destinations - Bigelow coming to mind - may have market for more people onboard per flight.

Expect current v1.0 Cargo Dragon to stay around for already-contracted CRS flights for the duration of the contract and Dragon 2.0 being the one being offered for the future resupply missions & Commercial Crew.

Potentially a Cargo 2.0 variant will exist (at least on paper) with a berthing hatch instead of a docking port and no life support systems, to trade weight of those bits to more cargo capacity.

[guckyfan]

I expect that the future Cargo Dragon will be the same vehicle as the crewed Dragon including the docking port. There will be an optional secondary cargo pod with a berthing port to increase pressurized volume and ensure transport of larger cargo.

I suspect that NASA is aware of that and included the cargo with docking port option in CRS 2 for that reason. Possible though that they included it to give Dream Chaser a shot at cargo.

[NovaSilisko]

Prediction: disposable trunk with the majority of the fuel required for an abort carried within. The same fuel could be used once in orbit to perform reboost on the ISS.* Smaller amount of fuel carried aboard dragon itself for landing.

_{*I believe the PMAs are built to withstand the loads of reboost from the shuttle, so I am working on the possibly-incorrect assumption that they could handle dragon doing the same, though perhaps not with the superdracos.}

[CuddlyRocket]

1. There'll be lots of stuff we'll go 'we knew that'; much stuff we'll go 'we didn't think of that', and even some stuff we'll go 'why did they think of that?'.

2. There'll be a lot of modularity and flexibility; it will be designed with a view for straightforward future development to enable it to do much more than crew (or cargo) runs to the ISS. SpaceX will talk this up in comparison with Dream Chaser and CST-100, but comparisons with the capabilities of Orion will be discouraged. (At this time!)

3. SpaceX want a reusable 2nd stage, and Elon has said they think they can see a way to achieve that. Perhaps that also enables a Dragon/Trunk combination to re-enter and be reused? Maybe not as separate capsule and service module, but an integrated vehicle that shares the same external shape and all the subsystems. Why? Well, if you had a bigger pressure vessel that extended into where the trunk now is, you'd get much more than seven people in it - far more cost-efficient as a people carrier to LEO stations cum hotels! I'll be looking out for the current system being over-engineered for such an eventuality.

[padrat]

They'll rebrand it "Smaug"

I'm still voting for "Alduin"....

[Jcc]

With Dragons becoming more reusable, they may start getting individual names, like the Shuttle orbiters.

So, Smaug, Alduin and Puff, are all possibilities.

[bilbo]

I predict, Dragon will look exactly like the mockup, and that Elon has successfully trolled us all for an entire month.

[Lar]

Mod hat: Single post thread. Are you sure you want to use your single post for asking for clarification from someone else? I just scotched someone's second post because I'm a meaniepants...

That said, since this IS a single post thread my prediction is that the model we've seen isn't exactly right. And that the cosine loss due to angle turns out to be far less than we thought it would be. Also no integral trunk, the size and outline are very similar to the current, except for thruster blisters. Also, feet pop out from the side rather than through the heat shield.

[CJ]

My prediction; the superdraco pairs will be in cowlings, which will invariably be called noses. What else would one call the housing for a pair of fire-breathing nostrils on a Dragon?

Cosign of 10 degrees or less.

The trunk won't be integrated, exactly, though it might be retained during a pad abort as a crumple-zone (it's be coming down on land with chutes, but with no propulsive ability, in a pad abort.) 

I'll echo Lars above; the legs won't deploy through the heat shield. However, going further, I suspect there will be no legs at all in the unveiled version.

It's designed to work towards full propulsive landing.

A variation of it will be the new cargo Dragon. My guess is they'll test out propulsive landing both with Dragonfly, but also with later cargo or dragonlab missions.

I also suspect that there might be a trampoline in view during the unveiling.

[john smith 19]

Hmm it's a tough one. 

Spacex really hates maintaining multiple configurations. I think this will be the crewed Dragon but a lot of it will be back fitted into the cargo version.

I think all the Super Draco thruster propellant will be in the capsule. In abort it all burns off in a few secs, on orbit it gives a big deltaV and on ground landing it kills the descent velocity. Same fuel, many purposes, ability to trade landing mode with deltaV.

Dragon TPS is segmented, so replacing a segment by a TPS covered door is not impossible. That may shift the balance of what's in the capsule and what's in the trunk, but is a point of failure.

Dragon is reusable and (I presume) designed to have its flight duration extended. I go closed cycle radiators over sublimators. One less consumable to replenish.

The big issue is docking over berthing. Can you put the hardware for both on the same location. If so The difference between cargo and crew Dragons becomes.
1) Berthing or Docking package.
2) Seating & Controls
3) ECLSS configuration (AFAIK cargo dragon does some thermal control already)
4) Install in flight toilet. Well if SOP stays a 3 day launch/docking cycle that's going to be needed. 
5) Software load (in my fantasy they both carry the same code, it's just a question of updating a rather extensive set of data tables. IRL?)

The fall back position would be both docking and berthing are installed at different locations and what gets used depends on the mission. Of course that's going to take a payload hit.

Are they confident enough to install ground legs yet? Don't think so (but I'll bet there's some compartment space already set aside for them  ).

The trunk.
I see I'm not alone in finding it very annoying that this gets discarded every Dragon launch. Trouble is making this reusable means increasing the down mass a lot. That means increasing the thruster propellant or the parachute sizes (or both) a lot too.

Sorry but I don't see sticking the heat shield  behind it and landing the whole package as a viable option. 
I don't like it and I'd love to be  proved wrong (making a wholly reusuable spacecraft) but I can't work out how to do it.

OTOH there's a lot more of them than of me. Maybe ??
 
With trunk expendability  in mind I do see them either going with batteries only (certainly for the cargo version) or some kind of pop out solar array on the capsule. High efficiency PV's are more compact and need less heat rejection. OTOH they could go with a big(ish) pair of roller blind thin film arrays and compensate for the relative low efficiency (IIRC roughly 17% Vs 43% for SoA thin films Vs multilayers) with longer booms. I'd bet the cost ratio is much  bigger than the efficiency ratio. Which would mean if you had detach them in an emergency the cost hit would not be so great.

BTW as Jim pointed out NASA asked for the new price of a Dragon for each COTS launch because that was their comfort zone and refurbishment costs were unknown (I don't think a Dragon had been launched at that point).

He also pointed out that NASA did not rule out using re-furbished Dragons for cargo delivery and by now I guess Spacex have a nice collection to practice on. I would guess V 2.0 incorporates any lessons learned (and I bet there are a few  ) from that experience.

Bottom line maximum commonality between Cargo Dragon and Crewed Dragon. AFAP the same core structure, systems and software with final configuration (Crew, cargo or maybe a bit of both?) left until the last possible moment (in this context weeks before launch, not days, but that's better than years or months).

[R7]

It'll look like conjoined Moai quadruplets. Easter Islanders will sue for industrial design infringement.

[Prober]

I predict, Dragon will look exactly like the mockup, and that Elon has successfully trolled us all for an entire month.

I predict Dragon will be given Legs 

[clongton]

•   Commonality between Crew and Cargo Dragon is maximized.
•   Cargo Dragon IS Crew Dragon with crew requirements removed/not installed:
        o   Docking Collar is bolt-on, bolting to birthing collar using the same bolts that birth Cargo Dragon to the ISS.
        o   ECLSS for Crew is bolt-on – Replace with EC for Cargo – same location
        o   Instrumentation/Control panels are bolt-on
        o   Seats are bolt-on.
        o   All above are Added for Crew – Removed/Not Installed for Cargo
•   Landing pads will pop thru the TPS akin to Shuttle landing gear. TPS is single use.
•   SD engines will have a cosine of 10°
•   Bigger/Better batteries for power.
•   Dragon retains solar panels
•   Big molded line change is the protrusions for SD.
•   Trunk will be lengthened and top 10% will be dedicated space for the capsule. Purpose is to allow future use of a Service Module in lieu of the trunk for longer, non-ISS missions. Connection to Dragon will be thru a collar like Apollo.

[A12]

I predict that he is going to sell the company.


Just kidding :-)

[mikelepage]

I suspect it will be largely the same, but with the trunk becoming relatively "dumber" and with more being integrated into the recoverable main capsule.  So solar panels will move to the sides of the capsule, which is also where the landing legs and superdraco thrusters will be.  This way the loss of the trunk to the atmostphere before re-entry will involve less wastage (it will be no more valuable than a payload fairing), but still allow the incineration disposal option, which is quite useful to have.

My hope is that they'll raise the bar for everyone else and reveal huge windows (at least on the order of what Virgin Galactic has done with SS2 - 43cm diameter) for crew/tourists to look out of - made with gorilla glass or some such.

[RonM]

Here's the Dragon 2 on display at the Capitol.

[JasonAW3]

Dragon 2.0 will likely either be slightly stretched in height, (possibly as much as 25%) with landing legs.

The Trunk will become more of a service module, but will still allow for unpressurized cargo and will be off loaded from the non-solar panel sides, to make access to cargo simpler and more efficent.

A reentry version of the Trunk will be developed with landing legs, that will land with the Dragon on top.  This will convert the whole system into a more biconic design.  In an emergency, the Dragon capsule will still be able to detach and land independantly of the trunk.  Should this craft have already passed through reentry when the emergency happens, both craft and capsule will land either via parachute and thrust or thrust alone or by parachute alone, depending on the scenerio.  Obviously with a biconic design, the Dragon will have to retain the nose cap for forward facing reentry.

Expanding on this;  Dragon 3.0 may incorporate the Lockheed Martin fusion power plant that may allow SSTO operations.  In this case, the craft will become more DC-Y in basic configuration, but with a circular bottom rather than a rounded corner square bottom.  This new design should allow between 30 to 40% of the total mass to be payload.  Later versions could possibly improve upon this.

During this time, the Falcon XX will be launching components into orbit of the "Dragon's Lair" orbital station.  This will be used as a staging and departure point for the MCT which will include a seperate Fsuaion Powered stage for minimum time rendevous with Mars.  After detaching the MCT for a Mars landing, the Fusion stage will attach to a returning MCT and accelerate for an Earth intercept, Refurbising and refueling.  Total round trip would be between 3 to 6 months, depending on orbital positions.

Forgot to meantion;  The Mars Colony will be named "Honah Lee".  (Personally I'd prefer Bradbury Base, but if he's financing it, he can name it whatever he wants!)

[wolfpack]

SpaceX will manifest a crewed flight aboard Dragon 2 in 2015 or 2016 using an all SpaceX crew and launching from LC39A.

[Space Pete]

I predict Dragon 2 will be powered by a new antimatter fusion device, and that it's first crewed flight will be a 14-day flight to Europa and back, piloted by Elon Musk himself. And all built for under $1000.

Seriously, I predict a visual difference in the form of protruding Super Dracos and Trunk fins, along with an announcement of a LEO test-flight in 2015/2016, to be launched from LC-39A and crewed by Garrett Reisman.

[Joffan]

It'll look like a "real spaceship".  Although maybe not as real as some of us hope...

(edit: I stole RCoppala's No Trampolines sign - on the next page).

[cro-magnon gramps]

the "Lord Elon" will introduce the Capsule for His Impulse Powered Engine that will be hidden in the trunk 

other than that, I ain't got a clue what He might do... His ways are too mysterious for a mere mortal like me 

Gramps

[RanulfC]

Didn't "he" mention it being more like a "spaceship from Aliens" rather than Star Wars? I keep having visions of it being a cross between the Chyenne and Pelican from HALO...

Really I'd LOVE for it to be a saucer:
https://archive.org/details/nasa_techdoc_19980228014
https://smartech.gatech.edu/handle/1853/8373

I mean the F9 is almost big enough to handle it

However I fully expect it to be a more Dragon/Trunk with heatshield and landing legs and intergrated propulsion "pods" on the trunk. But I can still dream

Randy
Modified: I put the wrong link in the first time.

[Bubbinski]

"Dragon 2" will be revealed as a Star Trek like transporter that will make rockets obsolete. Elon will be beamed to ISS.

Ok, ok there won't be any "Beam me up Gwynne" moments. Seriously I suspect that there will be a surprise no one saw coming though.  (perhaps a mini space station trunk attached to the Dragon a la MOL for independent space station/lab/hotel activities? Just my imagination, nothing concrete).  And I also predict that I will be seriously wanting someone to put out a model kit of the new craft.

[Chris Bergin]

It'll look exactly like Dragon 1.

There. I said it.

I know I'm wrong

[moralec]

My list:

Exterior.
- Taller capsule with more capacity.
- "Noses" for the superdracos.
- Docking Mechanism
- Larger Windows.
- Heatshield remains in the capsule. Reusability of trunk not present, possibly in the making for future versions.
- Cargo and crew version will be the same (economies of scale).
- No landing legs.

Interior
- Pressurized vessel remains the same and in the previous version. Extra capacity is used to store fuel and larger batteries.
- Version can accommodate Seats  (bolted), cargo or a mix of both.
- Advanced life support system for crewed flights. No bathroom included, but may be added in future versions.

And for the "one more thing...."

Trunks stay in orbit, and are used to slowly build a spaceX spacestation.

[RocketGoBoom]

It will have full wifi, a 3 month trial subscription to Slacker radio, heated leather seats, 0 to Mach 1 in 20 seconds, plenty of trunk space for luggage and a 3 year / 100 million mile warranty.

Optional 3M body armor protection to protect from stray orbital junk scratching or nicking your new Dragon 2.

[IRobot]

- It will have regenerative braking and supercharger support.
- The drag coefficient will be 0.27.
- a 17" LCD display will allow full control of the ECLSS
- no solar panels for recharging batteris
- 4 wheels, no legs

[bad_astra]

I predict a dragonlab announcement along with Dragon 2.

[simonbp]

The docking adapter will be replaced with a "frunk" under the nose cone. All crew transfer will be by personal jet pack.

There will be jump seats in the trunk (for the kids!).

It will fail California emission tests, and so have Texas plates.

It will have 800 helium tanks, 798 of which don't actually do anything.

There will be a free froyo machine in the back, but it will always be broken.

The air from the life support system will smell like several-year-old cheese.

[Todd Martin]

I predict Dragon 2 will have both the Berthing port & the Docking port installed as part of the base package.  This will allow 1 re-usable spacecraft to perform 2 roles.

[wronkiew]

I've been having really strange dreams lately, not all of them good. In one of them there was a small flock of wrens in my dining room, chirping at me. I gave them a tray full of cheese-nips and they started pecking at it in a frenzy. But then a gigantic raven landed on my arm and chased them all away. I'm sure it means something about Dragon 2 but I can't fathom what.

[rcoppola]

Dragon 2 will fly with an extended trunk. This trunk...:

-Will be dropped off to the parking orbit of the second stage post ISS Dragon 2 undocking
-2nd stage will reacquire the trunk
-Trunk will deploy an inflatable heat-shield
-All pieces returned (No solar panels)

Dragon 2 will absolutely have legs

Elon will place this sign next to the Dragon 2...

[JasonAW3]

Dragon 2 will fly with an extended trunk. This trunk...:

-Will be dropped off to the parking orbit of the second stage post ISS Dragon 2 undocking
-2nd stage will reacquire the trunk
-Trunk will deploy an inflatable heat-shield
-All pieces returned (No solar panels)

Dragon 2 will absolutely have legs

Elon will place this sign next to the Dragon 2...

Ok, I wouldn't be at ALL suprised if he does put that sign on his capsules!

[ChefPat]

It's going to look like a real Space Ship!!!

[GBpatsfan]

I for one predict that the capsule won't be outfitted in any near-flight-like configuration on the inside, while the exterior will look like the wind tunnel test object and the trunk will be more utilized and heftier.

Also, how cool is it that this is literally the reveal of a new spaceship!!! 

[billh]

My best guess:

[QuantumG]

I look forward to seeing all the magic pixie dust that Elon said wasn't necessary back in 2010.

[sanman]

It will exude an aura of efficiency and pragmatic design

[mr. mark]

My best guess is that Dragon will have a CB radio to talk to truckers while in orbit.

[DJPledger]

I predict that Dragon Mk2 will look similar to the mockup of the crew Dragon that was publicly released a while back with the Super Draco "noses".

Perhaps a Dragon 2 party thread should be set up and move all the daft Dragon 2 predictions over there.

[Joel]

First flight vehicle to be named "SS Heart of Gold". It will feature a shipboard computer named "Eddie" and a "Nutrimatic Drinks Dispenser". Sadly, no Infinite Improbability Drive on the horizon.

[Sean Lynch]

My best guess:

Why would SpaceX choose to copy the design for Orion?

[Stellvia]

Given the paired SuperDraco modules on the windtunnel test article, and the stubby wings/fins on the trunk, it will look like the illegitimate offspring of an X-Wing and a Babylon 5 Star Fury. George Lucas will sue for custody.

[MP99]

Trunk carried through initial phase of abort (for the fins) , then discarded.

Trunk discarded before reentry, as current Dragon.

But, the BLEO version will carry a 3D printer, so that vacuum-optimised nozzles can be added to the SDs once Dragon reaches orbit.

Cheers, Martin

[RedSky]

Fins! It's gotta have fins:

[kerlc]

Dragon 2.0 will be propelled by Orion Nuclear Pulse Engine. 

Edit: removed the hyperlink, clarified.

[dkanen]

Come on lets go all the way for the Wave Motion Engine, imported from Iscandar courtesy of Queen Starsha.

[Dave G]

integrated trunk w/ heat shield
side mounted landing legs
super draco nostrils
taller capsule
wider trunk

Interesting.  So the trunk would have some type of door?

[hrissan]

------normal guesses------
Module approach - interchangeable docking/berthing adapter, trunk with and without solar cells, cabin with zero seats (cargo only), 4 sears (crew + cargo) or 7 seats (cargo only).
Trunk with fins for stability during abort.
SDs will be mounted at 20 degrees angle to vertical.
There are 4 independent sets of fuel/oxydizer/heloum tanks, and each set feeds a quad of dracos plus opposite pair of SDs.
Nominal landing with <50% of maximum SD thrust, allows two pairs of SDs or two sets of tanks to fail and still land safely.
Landing burn starts high enough to deploy a parachute in case of propulsion or computer failure.
Just 1 working pair of SDs is enough for completely soft landing under parachute, and in case of total SD failure there is a crumple zone in the bottom of the capsule (5-star safety rating, like Tesla)
Legs are longer and sturdier than expected
Trunk is still jettisonned after deorbit burn.
After an abort enough fuel is left for soft landing on the land under parachute.
No GNC door - equipment is mounted under nose cone.
------wild guesses---------
Much larger windows and more of them.
3 segments of heatshield swivel outwards and become legs.
Nose cone halves open once on orbit and close before deorbiting. If fail to open or close they are jettisoned.
------crazy------
Dragon fuel tanks are large enough for Dragon to work as a moon ascent vehicle (with crew of 2) if fully fuelled. Landing will be with special trunk containing legs and 10-15 tons of additional fuel for SDs, most of this trunk will be left on the moon. "Different world - same capsule". "Fuel is cheap". The thing is launched on Falcon Heavy of course, will be developed "if market demands".

[sugmullun]

I imagine an almost independent trunk, with different configurations for different missions.
Reentries being separate, the trunk ending with parachutes(steerable?), and possibly something else
during the last seconds.
edit: ies

[Garrett]

Dragon Mk II (i.e. version for very near-term crew flights)
 - no legs
 - lands with parachutes and superdracos ŕ la Soyuz, though somewhat less of a hard bump
 - lots and lots of blue led lighting

All the other crazy stuff (legs, integrated trunk, precision landing) will be for an upgraded Mk II after DragonFly program is complete, i.e. a Dragon V2.1

I'm really curious about where they're gonna land this thing? White Sands?

[bubbagret]

Dragon II very similar to wind tunnel model, legs with integrated heat shields/blow out panels to unfold from over Super Draco housings, integrated NDS for docking and berthing maintained as an option, first landings off the space coast progressing to land landing at the new NASA vertical landing facility. Non reusable trunk with integrated battery power systems and fixed solar panels. Portions of SpaceX SPAM replaced with reusable thermal tiles. Free cheese and crackers with every ticket sold.

Note: Picture cropped from future vertical landing pdf from NASA site; http://masterplan.ksc.nasa.gov

[go4mars]

Dragon 2.0 will likely either be slightly stretched in height, (possibly as much as 25%) with landing legs.

The Trunk will become more of a service module, but will still allow for unpressurized cargo and will be off loaded from the non-solar panel sides, to make access to cargo simpler and more efficent.

A reentry version of the Trunk will be developed with landing legs, that will land with the Dragon on top.  This will convert the whole system into a more biconic design.  In an emergency, the Dragon capsule will still be able to detach and land independantly of the trunk.  Should this craft have already passed through reentry when the emergency happens, both craft and capsule will land either via parachute and thrust or thrust alone or by parachute alone, depending on the scenerio.  Obviously with a biconic design, the Dragon will have to retain the nose cap for forward facing reentry.

Expanding on this;  Dragon 3.0 may incorporate the Lockheed Martin fusion power plant that may allow SSTO operations.  In this case, the craft will become more DC-Y in basic configuration, but with a circular bottom rather than a rounded corner square bottom.  This new design should allow between 30 to 40% of the total mass to be payload.  Later versions could possibly improve upon this.

During this time, the Falcon XX will be launching components into orbit of the "Dragon's Lair" orbital station.  This will be used as a staging and departure point for the MCT which will include a seperate Fsuaion Powered stage for minimum time rendevous with Mars.  After detaching the MCT for a Mars landing, the Fusion stage will attach to a returning MCT and accelerate for an Earth intercept, Refurbising and refueling.  Total round trip would be between 3 to 6 months, depending on orbital positions.

Forgot to meantion;  The Mars Colony will be named "Honah Lee".  (Personally I'd prefer Bradbury Base, but if he's financing it, he can name it whatever he wants!)

I'll use my single post to salute this one.  Anyone with the last name Lee out there?  Honah's your next daughter's name. 

[eepic]

+ Side mounted super draco rocket pods
+ Landing legs that pop along the sides, giving it a classic UFO vibe
+ Larger windows, definite intention to be crew-rated
+ Trunk will be have to be ditched for orbital re-entry to prevent CoG flips
+ Some sort of cool animation at the event with live demo version folks can tour

Also, Elon to be coined "Father of Dragons".

[apirie98]

Hmmm well I’ve read through this whole thread... so now my guess:

-Changes – I’m guessing the Dragon will be longer, maybe wider, and the trunk will follow this trend. The SD thrusters are going to be arranged in redundant pairs protruding from the sides of the capsule itself – my best bet is that they will be called “snouts” – that sounds suitably dragony.
-TPS - SpaceX will design a retractable heat shield for the Dragon module itself. This will allow them to place a second docking/berthing port on the “base” of the module. Extra pressurised units can then be inserted between the Dragon and its trunk for laboratory or tourism purposes – whatever is needed you can almost guarantee SpaceX will try to find a solution.
-Landing legs – almost certainly protruding from the (retractable) heat shield to bear a larger impact, if they are included. I’m not personally convinced that side-mounted legs would be able to withstand potentially high impact speeds, even with the use of parachutes and retro-burns.
-Reusability – Each unit of a modular Dragon system (including the trunk) will be fitted with its own heat shield – the trunk will be able to re-enter by itself after separating with the Dragon module to allow reusability. I’m guessing that this will always be a parachute-assisted landing on the ocean even if the Dragon itself is capable of landing on land.
-Fuel tanks – The capsule itself will contain relatively small fuel tanks which can hold enough fuel for a particular task (ie re-entry burns) and the trunk will contain larger tanks which can be directly connected to the thrusters when the capsule and trunk are in use in tandem. The trunk could also act as a fuel reservoir for the capsule tanks, refilling them as and when it becomes necessary.
-Power – We’ve seen PV roof tiles on Earth, so my guess is that SpaceX will develop a PV spacecraft skin for both the Dragon and the trunk – thus negating the need for any type of solar array. Musk is probably already scheming and leaving space for a potential fusion reactor to be installed in the distant future.
-Crew vs. cargo – The two craft will share as much as they can to reduce the overall costs – probably with bolt-in seats for the crewed capsule. The crewed version will contain a door for external activity and I wouldn’t be surprised if the SpaceX guys can find a way to utilise this on a cargo-only version as an extension of the trunk for external cargo – maybe even using the entire pressurised capsule in an unpressurised mode to carry more sensitive external cargo in a controlled environment, and also as downmass.
-Docking and berthing – I would expect that we will see all capsules fitted with a berthing port as standard, with crewed versions utilising a docking adaptor. SpaceX may decide to promote the use of standard docking systems for cargo instead of berthing, in order to simplify this task and allow greater commonality between crew and cargo versions.
-BLEO - Maybe second stage/trunk integration on the F9 and the FH with a larger fuel tank to deliver crew and payloads beyond LEO. Possibly docking to a refuelling depot located on a SpaceX space station (?) so that the second stage can be re-used in orbit, to allow larger distances to be travelled. If the second stage could be made light enough then potential for use as a transfer vehicle between planets, where the Dragon would undock and land. The second stage would then re-dock with the Dragon for the journey back to Earth.

That’s what I’m guessing – maybe we will see some of this in a Dragon 2.1 instead of a Dragon 2 – maybe not at all. I’m sure SpaceX will come up with something we didn’t anticipate though...

[clongton]

What time tomorrow is the reveal?

[rcoppola]

What time tomorrow is the reveal?

10:00pm our time.

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=34828.0

[Space OurSoul]

I'll place my chips on:

-Elon's quote about "looking like a real space ship" implies to me that there have to be fins. Lots of gorgeous Buck Rogers El Dorado fins. On the trunk, of course.
-I bet the legs extend from the SD "noses" because space is at a premium inboard Dragon outside the pressure vessel, because the fewer protruberances into the airstream the better, and because poking holes in your heat shield does not exactly shake hands with Mister Sensible.
-It'll be TARDIS blue.

[inventodoc]

I'll put my speculation by probabilities:

VERY LIKELY:
SuperDraco Snouts
Larger Windows ('cockpit windows')
Landing Legs
Improved interior to counter CST-100 publicity photo

LIKELY:
Some other far reaching idea (below)
NDS Docking System
Commonality w/ future cargo version

POSSIBLE:
Something interesting w/ the trunk (MOL service module, additional fuel, etc...)
Pitched as Orion competitor

UNLIKELY (but would be cool):
Biconic design
Large spacecraft w/ integrated trunk

---------------------------------------
My first post. Please be gentle.

[MrHollifield]

My guesses:
Exterior:
Slightly taller than current cargo Dragon, but no change in diameter
Super Draco housings similar to wind tunnel model seen earlier
Landing legs fold out from the bottom of the Super Draco housings
Passive CBM as standard top with docking adapter as bolt-on option for DragonRider
CBM/docking adapter protected by retained nosecone that opens in 3 or 4 petals with PV cells inside
No trunk.
 
Interior:
Same volume as cargo version with extra OML space used for ECLSS, batteries and Super Draco fuel
Crew control displays are configured for the 3 seats on the bottom so there's more living room in the 7-seat version. Crew+cargo has seats for 3 with cargo above.

[Elvis in Space]

While running today I was trying to assemble some thoughts about this thread and couldn't really add anything different. All of a sudden it struck me that tomorrow, May 29, 2014, a private individual is going to unveil a manned spacecraft. A manned spacecraft that has a fair chance of actually flying as it is intended. Not only that but it will likely fly on at least a partially reusable booster and both spacecraft and booster will return to land vertically.

Far freaking out. I mean it. Really.

The train stops there. Trying to imagine what options Elon may have included becomes a superfluous exercise to me. I'm really looking forward to this.

[JFARNS]

I'm really impressed by all of the posts on this thread. Serious and daft alike.
I'll only add one point taken from the specs for the SPACEX space suit.
It should be badass. 

[Mongo62]

Totally off-the-wall idea here. Very little chance of happening.

We already suspect that this "big reveal" with not be a typical press announcement with Elon simply doing a voiceover on a Powerpoint presentation and a video or two, instead it seems to be building up to a full stage show. So what if the star of the show, the Dragon 2 itself, makes a dramatic entrance?

SCENE: Elon Musk standing at the front of a large empty open-air stage.

EM: ...and now I would like to present to you...

[loud roaring noise starts, grows steadily louder]

EM: ...the subject of today's presentation...

[Dragonfly appears over a screen, its Superdracos emitting white-hot plumes}

EM: ...the human-capable spacecraft, designed and built by SpaceX...

[Dragonfly comes to a halt over the center of the stage and starts to descend]

EM: ...capable of carrying seven astronauts to and from the International Space Station, and other destinations in space...

[Dragonfly touches down in the center of the stage, its logo front and center, and the Superdracos shut down. Sudden silence fills the air.]

EM: the Dragon Two spacecraft!

[Patchouli]

It'll probably have  a similar OML as the cargo Dragon.
I don't think they'll change it since the present design has worked so well.
The snouts with super dracos shown in the photos be there.
It'll have an ECLSS complete with Shuttle style WCS.

May have forward docking windows like Orion or a Soyuz style periscope.

It'll definitely have landing legs.

[Lobo]

With Dragons becoming more reusable, they may start getting individual names, like the Shuttle orbiters.

So, Smaug, Alduin and Puff, are all possibilities.

Lofwyr, Dunkelzahn, Alamais.....

Ok, so we'll know tomorrow what it looks like.  Tacking away from Dragon 2's physical design, what are the chances Elon is planning to have it basically crew ready.  And after some abort tests to makes sure the LAS system is safe, he plans to launch it with a private crew of two to the ISS in 2015 from 39A, using the same avionics that's currently used on dragon and approved for ISS use.  And do a short docking and visit, and then a return that would be water (for safety first.  On land after dragonfly program).
Essentially a political move to demonstrate he can break the US dependence on the Russians right that minute.  Not soon...not when commercial crew picks a winner, not it 2017...but now.

So there's my prediction.  Whatever it looks like it'll be ready to launch as soon as 39a with crew access is ready and the LAS system is tested for launch abort readiness.  And he'll go to the ISS with his own crew and blow everyone's mind and creat more political chaos as he's done so well with ULA recently.  Bold moves.

[AJW]

Along with the D2 reveal Musk will use the opportunity to cross-promote work at 39A, landing objectives for OG2, and announce which mission he expects will be the first Falcon RTLS.  Those working on the CRS-3 video repair will get a pleasant surprise.

[Sotar]

Prediction of Dragon 2 upgrades

-   Automated docking for crew or cargo
-   Modular design for crew / cargo easy to switch between, potential to reuse crewed Dragon as Cargo Dragon on next flight to prove reusability with non human payloads.
-   Improved Batteries from Tesla but will retain solar panels
-   Improved TPS for higher speed reentry, Moon Fly by
-   Additional Super Draco thrusters in the trunk now a full service module, ISS re-boost, or act as a small 3rd stage.

[laika_fr]

my wildest assumption :

- long capsule module
- small optional trunk for cargo/extended missions which could weather the re-entry (with stated fins)
- foldable/reusable solar panel on the capsule side
- impressive pods at the bottom
- 2015 :  lunar mission from pad39, and since dragon may land, it will, but without crew.

[bstrong]

My prediction in light of the new SpaceX home page photo: http://www.spacex.com/sites/spacex/files/v2_seat_closer_still.jpg

The "alien spaceship" comment was in regards to the interior, which was designed in cooperation with Tesla.

[llanitedave]

The Tesla Model D Spacester?

[Bob Shaw]

Made of cheese, with a spacecraft surprisingly carried inside as cargo!

[Rocket Science]

With Dragons becoming more reusable, they may start getting individual names, like the Shuttle orbiters.

So, Smaug, Alduin and Puff, are all possibilities.

Lofwyr, Dunkelzahn, Alamais.....

Ok, so we'll know tomorrow what it looks like.  Tacking away from Dragon 2's physical design, what are the chances Elon is planning to have it basically crew ready.  And after some abort tests to makes sure the LAS system is safe, he plans to launch it with a private crew of two to the ISS in 2015 from 39A, using the same avionics that's currently used on dragon and approved for ISS use.  And do a short docking and visit, and then a return that would be water (for safety first.  On land after dragonfly program).
Essentially a political move to demonstrate he can break the US dependence on the Russians right that minute.  Not soon...not when commercial crew picks a winner, not it 2017...but now.

So there's my prediction.  Whatever it looks like it'll be ready to launch as soon as 39a with crew access is ready and the LAS system is tested for launch abort readiness.  And he'll go to the ISS with his own crew and blow everyone's mind and creat more political chaos as he's done so well with ULA recently.  Bold moves.

Now that would be “irresponsible”...

[Lars_J]

My thoughts...

Very likely:
 - The dragon external shape will be roughly like the wind tunnel image (see image#1 below)
 - the docking port will *not* be a simple adapter bolted on top of the CBM hatch
 - landing legs (if shown) will extend from/through the heat shield
 - the trunk (if shown) is a shortened trunk without solar panels

Possible:
 - the nose cone may be designed to stay attached during the entire flight (like the old Dragon design concept from 2006, see image #2 below)

[dglow]

Staring at that wind-tunnel pic... the cross-section carved-out by the SD pods/snouts will need to extend up through the shape of the nose cone itself.

Might these be the 'fins' which have been reported? If the F9R's retracted leg pods provide stability on descent, could the SuperDraco snouts do the same for abort?


Either way, it's going to look very badass indeed.   


_{edit: typo}

[kirghizstan]

do the "fins" need to be tail fins, couldn't they be canards?

[RocketGoBoom]

Elon Musk is the same age as I am. I am sure this movie influenced him greatly in terms of capsule design.
So my guess is that it looks like this.

[RocketmanUS]

More sizzle than steak.

What matters most is a vehicle that can safely deliver and bring back crew. Looks are secondary.

[solartear]

A little bigger, with noses. SuperDracos exhaust partially overlaps some Dracos. Lots of black TPS under the SuperDracos and a bit surrounding their nozzle exit. The 4 legs will be attached, though not filled with the normal helium. Legs shoot out almost straight down with a piece of TPS attached.

Dragon v2 will be lowered by cables from above to reveal itself. Someone not Elon will be inside. No spacesuit reveal. Outside same for both Crew and Cargo, except Cargo keeps CBM, and Crew gets NDS.

DragonFly will have 4 additional legs like Grasshopper's for extra strength as backup.

[DaveH62]

It will be standing on four legs. Background imagery of Soyuz capsule to highlight a modern civilized system. Two trunk versions, one a basic trunk and the other a lab and service module. Hoping for egress directly to the trunk through be heat shield. Legs will fold mount between the super dracos. The mystery to me is if they will have a reusable trunk system that can come back to earth, either seperately landing with a parachute, or connected to the Dragon. 

[Lars_J]

Time to lock this thread now... Not much point to make these "predictions" once the event starts.

[aero]

I predict it will start late!

[dcporter]

I predict bare isogrid inside. No trunk present, but fins and flush solar panels in the animations. Elon will have trouble getting out of the seat.

[bilbo]

wow, that was just amazing! Dragon 2 looks badass.
 Who woulda thunk it would look like that? looked nothing like predictions!

[catdlr]

My thoughts...

Very likely:
 - The dragon external shape will be roughly like the wind tunnel image (see image#1 below)
 - the docking port will *not* be a simple adapter bolted on top of the CBM hatch
 - landing legs (if shown) will extend from/through the heat shield
 - the trunk (if shown) is a shortened trunk without solar panels

Possible:
 - the nose cone may be designed to stay attached during the entire flight (like the old Dragon design concept from 2006, see image #2 below)

I think Lars got it close.

[Lars_J]

My thoughts...

Very likely:
 - The dragon external shape will be roughly like the wind tunnel image (see image#1 below)
 - the docking port will *not* be a simple adapter bolted on top of the CBM hatch
 - landing legs (if shown) will extend from/through the heat shield
 - the trunk (if shown) is a shortened trunk without solar panels

Possible:
 - the nose cone may be designed to stay attached during the entire flight (like the old Dragon design concept from 2006, see image #2 below)

Nailed it! (except for the trunk details)

edit: TOTALLY violates the 'single post' rule but hey, gloat away, you DID nail it pretty well. (some other mod may delete this, but it won't be me)

[dglow]

Yep, points to Lars_J.

What I don't think anyone picked up on is the synergistic co-branding behind Dragon 2's design. I''ll bet everyone assumes the asymmetrical arrangement of the SuperDracos has a functional purpose... clearance for the side door/hatch, perhaps, right?

But take another look: on propulsive descent a giant SpaceX will illuminate the sky. Genius!   

[sublimemarsupial]

I''ll bet everyone assumes the asymmetrical arrangement of the SuperDracos has a functional purpose... clearance for the side door/hatch, perhaps, right?

It keeps the superdraco pods off the windward side during the lifting reentry, reducing their heat load.

[Elmar Moelzer]

SuperDracos are still symmetrically placed (2 symmetry axis, as I predicted)

[dcporter]

SuperDracos are still symmetrically placed (2 symmetry axis, as I predicted)

Been a long time since geometry class, but aren't they symmetrical left/right but not front/back? What are the two axes?

[meekGee]

there's just no 4-way rotational symmetry any more.    Or, each quadrant is no longer symmetrical about its bisector.

[Elmar Moelzer]

there's just no 4-way rotational symmetry any more.    Or, each quadrant is no longer symmetrical about its bisector.

I am pretty sure that it is still front back symmetric (if you disregard some of the smaller details) and left right symmetric. But that's it.

[meekGee]

there's just no 4-way rotational symmetry any more.    Or, each quadrant is no longer symmetrical about its bisector.

I am pretty sure that it is still front back symmetric (if you disregard some of the smaller details) and left right symmetric. But that's it.

Yup.

[dcporter]

Wrong thread for this discussion, but it's been discussed extensively—and it appears from the animation—that it's not front-to-back symmetrical. SD pods are cheated away from the door and towards the back. I may be misunderstanding terms.

[Lars_J]

Wrong thread for this discussion, but it's been discussed extensively—and it appears from the animation—that it's not front-to-back symmetrical. SD pods are cheated away from the door and towards the back. I may be misunderstanding terms.

No,as far as I can tell, the back side appears to be a mirror of the front site. (just missing hatch + windows)

[Elmar Moelzer]

No,as far as I can tell, the back side appears to be a mirror of the front site. (just missing hatch + windows)

Don't ask why, but I now know with 100% certainty that this is correct

[dcporter]

No,as far as I can tell, the back side appears to be a mirror of the front site. (just missing hatch + windows)

Don't ask why, but I now know with 100% certainty that this is correct

Very well. Thanks for the correction!