The search for the missing Kosmos

[Satori]

With the recent announcement that the satellite orbited by Russia on May 6 was designated Kosmos-2495, the question arise about the «missing» Kosmos satellites.

Until this day we knew that the satellites launched on December 25, 2013, were designated Kosmos-2488, Kosmos-2489 and Kosmos-2490. So, with this it was assumed that the GLONASS-M satellite launched on March 23, 2014, was Kosmos-2491.

With the recent announcement, there were three missing Kosmos satellites (Kosmos-2491, Kosmos-2492 and Kosmos-2493).

Some good candidates for this were the three satellites launched in the first Soyuz-2.1v launch on December 28, 2013. Eventually, the SKRL-756 spheres from that launch received Kosmos designations (Kosmos-2491 and Kosmos-2492), while the AIST maintained its original designation.

With this, there is still one Kosmos satellite missing. We can assume that Kosmos-2493 was launched between December 25 ('Rodnik-S' triple launch) and March 23 (Kosmos-2494 'GLONASS-M' launch). (In this, I'm excluding the hypothesis of the satellite being hand launched during the December 27, 2013, and January 27, 2014, spacewalks).

In between these two dates we had the Progress M-22M (with Chasqui-1 and more?) on February 5, the Turksat-4A (commercial) launch on February 14, and the Ekspress double launch on March 15.

The search for Kosmos-2493 has began!

Comments, suggestions?

[Phillip Clark]

Bring back the days of the Soviet launch announcements which might not have said a lot about the satellites but at least gave a definitive name and an approximate orbit!!!

We are making the possibly-unwarrented assumption that whoever did the launch announcement can count.

[gwiz]

Since their are precedents for dummy payloads getting Kosmos names, how about the ballast/Volga stage?

[Alter Sachse]

novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/news/19592  said yesterdays launch was Kosmos 2492

[Satori]

novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/news/19592  said yesterdays launch was Kosmos 2492

That was published before the information that came from Russia's MOD.

[Satori]

My updated analysis about the missing Kosmos (original version in Portuguese http://www.zenite.nu/orbita/a-busca-pelo-misterioso-satelite-cosmos/)

With the recent announcement that the satellite that was orbited by Russia on May 6, 2014, was named Kosmos-2495, some questions arise about the «missing» Kosmos satellites.

Until the day of the Kosmos-2495 launch we knew that the satellites launched on December 25, 2013, were designated Kosmos-2488, Kosmos-2489 and Kosmos-2490. This was, and taking into account this designations, we assumed that the GLONASS-M navigation satellite orbited on March 23, 2014, was Kosmos-2491.

With the announcement of the Kosmos-2495 launch, there are three «missing» Kosmos satellites in orbit (Kosmos-2491, Kosmos-2492 and Kosmos-2493).

Some good candidates for these designations were the three satellites launched in the first Soyuz-2.1v launch on December 28, 2013. Eventually, the SKRL-756 spheres from that launch received Kosmos designations (Kosmos-2491 and Kosmos-2492), while the AIST maintained its original designation.

With this, there is still one Kosmos satellite missing. We can assume that Kosmos-2493 was launched between December 25 ('Rodnik-S' triple launch) and March 23 (Kosmos-2494 'GLONASS-M' launch). (In this, I'm excluding the hypothesis of the satellite being hand launched during the December 27, 2013, and January 27, 2014, spacewalks).

In between these two dates we had the Progress M-22M (with Chasqui-1 CubeSat) on February 5, the Turksat-4A (commercial) launch on February 14, and the Ekspress double launch on March 15.

Is not usual the Kosmos designations being given to satellites that aren't still in orbit, and even with the possibility of a mysterious small satellite being on the ISS launched on Progress M-21M, this hypotheses is not plausible.

The same way, nothing more was launch together with the TurkSat-4A satellite and with the two Ekspress communications satellites. On the other hand, when we analyse the objects that resulted from the Soyuz-2.1v launch, we see that apart from the SKRL-756 (I), SKRL-756 (II) and Aist satellites, only the last rocket stage from the launcher was catalogued in orbit (in fact, it will re-enter a few days time).

So, lets do the same analysis for the triple Rodnik-S launch on December 25, 2013. Apart from the three Rodnik satellites, other two objects were catalogued: the Briz-KM and another object designated ‘BREEZE-KM DEB’ (39497 2013-076E).

When we compare the orbital parameters of these objects (and being obvious that the Briz-KM didn't received any 'Kosmos' designation), we note that object 39497 has similar orbital parameters to the three Rodnik satellites (Kosmos-2488, Kosmos-2489 and Kosmos-2490), and this can point to the fact that the object separated from the Briz-KM before the usual separation burn.

The objects that resulted from this launch have the following orbital parameters: (perigee x apogee x orbital period): Kosmos-2488 (1478 x 1511 x 115.86); Kosmos-2489 (1476 x 1513 x 115.86) and Kosmos-2490 (1476 x 1513 x 115.86). Object 39497 has the following orbital parameters: 1481 x 1510 x 115.88.

Since 2008 there were six Rodnik missions launched by Rokot. In two of those missions a fourth satellite was orbited: on May 23, 2008, (2008-025) the small Yubeleiny was orbited and on July 28, 2012, (2012-041) the small MiR was orbited. On the other Rokot/Rodnik on July 6, 2009 (2009-036); September 8, 2010 (2010-043) January 15, 2013 (2013-001), only the three Rodniks and the Briz-KM upper stage were catalogued in orbit.

So, it is possible that this object (39497) be the «missing» Kosmos and if this is the case, then the most recent Kosmos designations are:

Kosmos-2488 (Rodnik-S) launched on December 25, 2013;

Kosmos-2489 (Rodnik-S) launched on December 25, 2013;

Kosmos-2490 (Rodnik-S) launched on December 25, 2013;

Kosmos-2491 (??) launched on December 25, 2013;

Kosmos-2492 (SKRL-756 (I)) launched on December 28, 2013;

Kosmos-2493 (SKRL-756 (II)) launched on December 28, 2013;

Kosmos-2494 (GLONASS-M) launched on March 25, 2014;

Kosmos-2495 (Kobalt-M) launched on May 6, 2014.

Russia prepares for the launch of three new Rodnik-S on May 25 and on July 9, three Gonets-M satellites will be orbited by the DOSAAF-85 satellite. It will be interesting to see the way these satellites will evolve in orbit and how many objects will result from these two launches.

[JimO]

Nice work!

[gwiz]

According to Bob Christy (Zarya.info), the 2013-076E theory is confirmed by a draft UN Registry submission.

[tmtsquish]

39620 (GLONASS-M) launched on March 25, 2014 is now named COSMOS 2494 (GLONASS) from 2491.

39732 (Kobalt-M) launched on May 6, 2014 is now named COSMOS 2945.

[Stan Black]

Another question… could there have been a fourth Kosmos on the previous Rodnik launch; stranded with the failed Briz upper stage?

[Skyrocket]

Another question… could there have been a fourth Kosmos on the previous Rodnik launch?

That is one of the most likely theories. Something in the size class of Yubeleyniy or MiR, which were also launched with a triplett of Rodnik or Gonets-M satellites. Especially as there was an additionally object detected.

[Stan Black]

Another question… could there have been a fourth Kosmos on the previous Rodnik launch?

That is one of the most likely theories. Something in the size class of Yubeleyniy or MiR, which were also launched with a triplett of Rodnik or Gonets-M satellites.

Was going to revise the previous question. I meant the one that failed?

[Satori]

Another question… could there have been a fourth Kosmos on the previous Rodnik launch; stranded with the failed Briz upper stage?

From my previous analysis: "Since 2008 there were six Rodnik missions launched by Rokot. In two of those missions a fourth satellite was orbited: on May 23, 2008, (2008-025) the small Yubeleiny was orbited and on July 28, 2012, (2012-041) the small MiR was orbited. On the other Rokot/Rodnik on July 6, 2009 (2009-036); September 8, 2010 (2010-043) January 15, 2013 (2013-001), only the three Rodniks and the Briz-KM upper stage were catalogued in orbit."

But your question is interesting. I don't know if there is a way to check that analysing the orbital decay rate for the Briz-KM (I suppose the small satellite mass will not make much difference). Also, could a fourth satellite have influence in the problem that affected the Briz-KM?

Other question is to see if the next Rodnik-S launch will have another fourth satellite.

[Satori]

Another question… could there have been a fourth Kosmos on the previous Rodnik launch?

That is one of the most likely theories. Something in the size class of Yubeleyniy or MiR, which were also launched with a triplett of Rodnik or Gonets-M satellites. Especially as there was an additionally object detected.

What object was that? Are you referring to the January 2013 launch?

[Skyrocket]

Another question… could there have been a fourth Kosmos on the previous Rodnik launch?

That is one of the most likely theories. Something in the size class of Yubeleyniy or MiR, which were also launched with a triplett of Rodnik or Gonets-M satellites. Especially as there was an additionally object detected.

What object was that? Are you referring to the January 2013 launch?

No, i was talking about the December 2013 launch (2013-076E)

[jcm]

From my newsletter  at http://planet4589.org/latest.html

 Bob Christy (zarya.info) has
discovered a so-far-unreleased UN registration document from Russia.
This document reports that the Sep 2013 Rokot launch, which placed three
Rodnik/Strela class communications satellites in orbit as
Kosmos-2488/2489/2490, also placed a fourth payload in orbit,
Kosmos-2491.  This fourth Russian Ministry of Defense payload was not
previously announced. It probably corresponds to the object tracked as
2013-076E, SSN 39497, which has a 0.4 sq m radar cross section. Two   
previous Strela class launches on Rokot have carried small additional 
Yubilyeniy scientific payloads of similar RCS; it seems likely that the
mystery payload is comparable, and may repreresent a Russian military   
small satellite testbed

----
See also Bob's page at http://www.zarya.info/Gallimaufry/MissingCosmos.php

[Phillip Clark]

Jonathan - who was first with this - Bob Christy or Satori (Rui?).   I thought it was Satori.

[jcm]

Jonathan - who was first with this - Bob Christy or Satori (Rui?).   I thought it was Satori.

Bob is the only one with the Russian document. Rui 's suggestion about 2013-076E came May 8,  the day before Bob drew this document to my attention but his web page is also dated May 8, so I'm not sure if Rui's guess came before Bob reported the evidence.

[Satori]

Well, May 8 is the date of the english version of the article published on my site on May 7.

[anik]

Sep 2013 Rokot launch, which placed three Rodnik/Strela class communications satellites in orbit

September?

Jonathan - who was first with this - Bob Christy or Satori (Rui?). I thought it was Satori

I am not Jonathan, but the first was Rui Barbosa with portuguese version of his article: http://www.zenite.nu/orbita/a-busca-pelo-misterioso-satelite-cosmos/