Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 2  (Read 217675 times)

Offline inonepiece

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #280 on: 01/03/2016 11:18 PM »
This thread is becoming a place to pre-register guesses about the number of SpaceX launches in 2016.
There will be a poll for that.  Soon I hope.  Let's put our guesses there, OK?
Well, it's 2016, is somebody going to start a poll?  Or is it there already and I missed it?

Offline QuantumG

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #281 on: 01/03/2016 11:22 PM »
Well, it's 2016, is somebody going to start a poll?  Or is it there already and I missed it?

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39071.0
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Offline swervin

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #282 on: 01/05/2016 02:39 PM »
Maybe this belongs here, maybe in a commercial crew thread. Regardless, spaceflightnow's launch schedule has now listed the SpX Commercial Crew Dragon Demo 1 flight in Dec 2016. Obviously, this is so far out, many things can change, but is this the first time we've seen a rough date associated with this mission? Also, it being 'scheduled' prior to any Boeing Commercial Crew mission? I've been quite out of the loop lately, apologize if this has come up before.

"DecemberFalcon 9 • Crew Dragon Demo 1
Launch window: TBD
Launch site: LC-39A, Kennedy Space Center, Florida
A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will launch a Crew Dragon spacecraft on an uncrewed test flight to the International Space Station under the auspices of NASA’s commercial crew program. [Jan. 1]"
-Ref: Spaceflightnow.com

Cheers,
Splinter

Offline WHAP

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #283 on: 01/07/2016 07:48 PM »
Maybe this belongs here, maybe in a commercial crew thread. Regardless, spaceflightnow's launch schedule has now listed the SpX Commercial Crew Dragon Demo 1 flight in Dec 2016. Obviously, this is so far out, many things can change, but is this the first time we've seen a rough date associated with this mission? Also, it being 'scheduled' prior to any Boeing Commercial Crew mission? I've been quite out of the loop lately, apologize if this has come up before.

"DecemberFalcon 9 • Crew Dragon Demo 1
Launch window: TBD
Launch site: LC-39A, Kennedy Space Center, Florida
A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will launch a Crew Dragon spacecraft on an uncrewed test flight to the International Space Station under the auspices of NASA’s commercial crew program. [Jan. 1]"
-Ref: Spaceflightnow.com

Cheers,
Splinter

It's almost a year away.  Go here (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36507.msg1311378#msg1311378) to see that the probability of an on-time Falcon 9 launch this far away is essentially 0 and that the average delay at L-3 months is actually 1.5 to 2 months.  Per Chris' article about the first Starliner launch in April or May of 2017, I'd say that SpaceX and Boeing are neck and neck in the race to get an unmanned crew vehicle in orbit first.  Which, at the end of the day, means nothing.
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #284 on: 01/07/2016 08:19 PM »
...of course, SpaceX regularly flies prototypes for its crewed spacecraft to ISS and back...
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

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Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #285 on: 01/07/2016 09:10 PM »
...Per Chris' article about the first Starliner launch in April or May of 2017, I'd say that SpaceX and Boeing are neck and neck in the race to get an unmanned crew vehicle in orbit first.  Which, at the end of the day, means nothing.

I wouldn't say 'nothing'.  It's not the checkered flag, but if they aren't up there it says a lot.
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Offline WHAP

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #286 on: 01/08/2016 02:41 AM »
...Per Chris' article about the first Starliner launch in April or May of 2017, I'd say that SpaceX and Boeing are neck and neck in the race to get an unmanned crew vehicle in orbit first.  Which, at the end of the day, means nothing.

I wouldn't say 'nothing'.  It's not the checkered flag, but if they aren't up there it says a lot.

Certainly if one never gets there.  But if there's a month, or three, or even twelve between these "first" flights, it won't make much difference in the long run. 
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Offline WHAP

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #287 on: 01/08/2016 02:42 AM »
...of course, SpaceX regularly flies prototypes for its crewed spacecraft to ISS and back...

...then this Crew Dragon demo flight must not mean much, correct?
ULA employee.  My opinions do not necessarily reflect those of my employer.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #288 on: 01/08/2016 03:24 AM »
...of course, SpaceX regularly flies prototypes for its crewed spacecraft to ISS and back...

...then this Crew Dragon demo flight must not mean much, correct?
Means a lot less for SpaceX than the Starliner test will mean for Boeing.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline bulkmail

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #289 on: 01/09/2016 06:20 PM »
A refresh of the commercial launches table from last year http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=32503.msg1346716#msg1346716.

DSCOVR and STP-2 are counted as government, e.g. SpaceX got those as a kind of help new launchers qualification, not in a competitive procedure.
« Last Edit: 01/09/2016 06:25 PM by bulkmail »

Offline Jcc

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #290 on: 01/10/2016 12:30 AM »
Bigelow Aerospace Twitter account says CRS-8 will launch Feb 7, 2016.  Is this news?

https://twitter.com/BigelowSpace

Offline ZachS09

Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #291 on: 01/10/2016 12:44 AM »
Bigelow Aerospace Twitter account says CRS-8 will launch Feb 7, 2016.  Is this news?

https://twitter.com/BigelowSpace

Probably.
Because the Falcon Heavy Test Flight was successful, it has inspired thousands of people to consider changing the future of space travel.

Offline ethan829

Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #292 on: 01/10/2016 02:21 AM »
Bigelow Aerospace Twitter account says CRS-8 will launch Feb 7, 2016.  Is this news?

https://twitter.com/BigelowSpace


launchphotography.com has been reporting that NET date for about a month now.

Offline toruonu

Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #293 on: 01/10/2016 07:03 AM »
Now that's a launch cadence with Jan 17, Jan 23, Feb 7... The first two are from differnet pads, but a two week turnaround on pad 40 is a repeat of their fastest ever so far :) let's see how that goes :)

Offline BruceM

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #294 on: 01/10/2016 03:00 PM »
Web sites often referenced in this forum for upcoming SpaceX launches include Space Flight Now at http://spaceflightnow.com/launch-schedule/ and Gunter's Space Page at http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_chr/lau2016.htm.  Also, Lar posted a list of 2016 launches based on Salo's Thread with adjustments at the top of the Poll thread at http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39071.0.  With the Poll currently underway (and my submission hanging in the balance), wondered how the three sources compare.  Found it interesting so thought perhaps someone else might.  Here it is.

All numbers were taken from the three sources as of 11 PM EST 1/9/16 and are effective as of that time.  SFN shows 15 upcoming 2016 SX launches, GSP shows 28 and Lar has 30.  Here are the comparisons by type of launch and quarter:
         Source   S   G   L   S   G   L   S   G   L   S   G   L   S   G   L
        Quarter   1   1   1   2   2   2   3   3   3   4   4   4 Tot Tot Tot
F9 COM      (1)   4   5   4   0   1   1   2   2   2   0   9  11   6  17  18
F9 CRS      (2)   2   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   5   5   5
F9 Other    (3)   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   2   2   2
All FH      (4)   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   1   0   1   2   4   2   4   5
          Total   7   8   7   2   3   3   3   4   3   3  13  17  15  28  30

Notes:
(1) - Includes all F9 commercial launches and all F9 government launches that are not U.S.
(2) - Includes only Commercial Resupply Services launches.
(3) - All other F9 launches (consisting of two U.S. government non-CRS flights).
(4) - All Falcon Heavy launches.
- All F9 launches are FT except Jason 3 in the first quarter.
- Where the source indicates first or second half of 2016 the launch was included in the second or fourth quarter, respectively.
- SFN shows many fewer launches scheduled late in the year.  Not certain why but perhaps SFN has a more strict requirement for including launches.  On the other hand, others have discussed above that SX may become constrained by manufacturing capacity after it burns off its current backlog so lots of variability late in the year is probably warranted.
- Gunter's did not show STP-2 in its list of FH launches but did include two others that seemed perhaps less likely. Lar included STP-2 and three other FH launches while SFN included only the initial FH demo and STP-2.
- This is became a bit of an experiment in aligning spread sheet cells on a text screen.  Please forgive if columns aren't perfect.
- Please don't hesitate to inform of any errors or omissions. Also, glad for your thoughts & comments.

Hope you're also having fun with the Poll. ;D
« Last Edit: 01/16/2016 09:02 PM by BruceM »

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #295 on: 01/10/2016 09:19 PM »
Thank you for the comparison table.

The variation is only in the number of FH and number of commercial flights. I can understand the variation in FH number but the very large difference for the commercial flights is I think because of some too optimistic view of when some satellites would be ready to launch. The real question is actually which of those 17-18 commercial sats would actually launch in 2016. Only a few (5-6) are fully expected to launch in 2016 but the others are a guess as to which would be ready and which will slip out to 2017 or even 2018.

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #296 on: 01/11/2016 02:32 AM »
Just looked at launches shown in SFN for first half of 2016 and there are 9 shown. With Formosat added for April from SLC-4 VAFB that brings 1st half of 2016 expected launches to 10.

That brings to question just how many more would they do in the second half even if a couple (2 or 3) in the first half slip into the second half, that launch rate if sustained could be from 14 to as many as 20 for 2016!!!!!

Offline Chris Bergin

Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #297 on: 01/11/2016 01:54 PM »
Peter B. de Selding ‏@pbdes  8m8 minutes ago
SpaceX to launch Telesat Canada's Telstar 18V & 19V sats in 2018 under contracts signed in December, narrowing 2015 award gap w/Arianespace.

---

Also, we've been told to phase out the "v1.1", "Full Thrust" and such naming and just to go to Falcon 9, to align with how SpaceX will be naming them internally. We'll do that after Jason-3 (final v1.1), as all future launches will be the same F9 config anyway (until Elon thinks of a way to upgrade her again). I'll sort out the threads in due course.

Online abaddon

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #298 on: 01/11/2016 02:11 PM »
Peter B. de Selding ‏@pbdes  8m8 minutes ago
SpaceX to launch Telesat Canada's Telstar 18V & 19V sats in 2018 under contracts signed in December, narrowing 2015 award gap w/Arianespace.
Two more SSL-1300 contracts.  SpaceX has picked up quite a few of those recently and will be launching several in the coming months.  These launches are likely F9FT RTLS.  Nice pickup for them!

This Arianespace/SpaceX back and forth battling for the lead in contracts signed has been quite entertaining.  And a hopeful sign for the future of what has been a very stagnant market...
Quote
Also, we've been told to phase out the "v1.1", "Full Thrust" and such naming and just to go to Falcon 9, to align with how SpaceX will be naming them internally. We'll do that after Jason-3 (final v1.1), as all future launches will be the same F9 config anyway (until Elon thinks of a way to upgrade her again). I'll sort out the threads in due course.
Makes sense, this has been reflected in recent SpaceX communications where it was just Falcon 9 with no qualifiers.  It would seem to reflect that SpaceX at least thinks that the rocket has reached its final (major) configuration, while there will obviously be fixes and upgrades to come.
« Last Edit: 01/11/2016 02:13 PM by abaddon »

Offline rocx

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 2
« Reply #299 on: 01/11/2016 02:21 PM »
Also, we've been told to phase out the "v1.1", "Full Thrust" and such naming and just to go to Falcon 9, to align with how SpaceX will be naming them internally. We'll do that after Jason-3 (final v1.1), as all future launches will be the same F9 config anyway (until Elon thinks of a way to upgrade her again). I'll sort out the threads in due course.

For a thread title, article title or press release that makes sense. However the differences between the three versions of Falcon 9 are comparable to the many configurations of Atlas V and Delta V, so for those who distinguish in detail, I would certainly urge to keep up the distinction.
Any day with a rocket landing is a fantastic day.

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