Impact of Ukrainian Crisis on Russia (not about the sanctions)

[Danderman]

Russia has now annexed the Crimea, which contains the former Yepatoria observatory and control center. I have no clue as to whether the site will be re-incorporated into the Russian ground control network, as the Luch system may make ground stations largely irrelevant.

There may be other former USSR installations in the Crimea that may be useful, as well.

However, what we may see is Eastern Ukraine either becoming independent or annexed directly to Russia. The most likely low hanging fruit in that area would be Kharkhov, which has significant manufacturing and design capability, and is relatively close to Russia. The big prize, however, would be Dnepropetrovsk, a largely Russian speaking city with enormous aerospace assets.

[MP99]

How would those assets being in Crimea affect any US contracts with Ukrainian companies (Antares, etc)?

cheers, Martin

[albatros68]

Where is Cyclone 4 made? (western Ukraine or eastern close tied to Russia?). Some news pointed that rocket as the only feasible project in present days for Ukraine

[Danderman]

Where is Cyclone 4 made? (western Ukraine or eastern close tied to Russia?). Some news pointed that rocket as the only feasible project in present days for Ukraine

Cyclone and Zenit are products of Yushmash in Dnepropetrovsk. This is a little west of the area that has the current unrest, but there are a majority of Russian speakers there.

It is unclear to me what would happen if Yuzhmash ended up in Russia or a Russian affiliated East Ukraine.

[sdsds]

I suspect Russia knows it cannot successfully reclaim Dnepropetrovsk. I would like to see a human translation of:
http://www.ukrinform.ua/rus/news/v_dnepropetrovske_sostoyalis_dva_mitinga_za_i_protiv_novoy_vlasti_1608502

Google translate indicates it reports a peaceful meeting of former Soviet Communists in Dnepropetrovsk, perhaps 1 to 3 thousand in number.
Пророссийские силы во главе с "Союзом советских офицеров" под флагом Коммунистической партии УССР провели свой митинг у Оперного театра при участии от 1 до 3 тысяч участников, которые скандировали "Россия, мы с тобой!"

They marched to a building, flew a flag of Russia outside it briefly, but did not attempt to occupy the building and dispersed without much (or any) violence. My personal read on this is that these truly were people of the region acting on their own initiative, i.e. without the direct participation of Russian agents provocateur.

Is your read on that situation different?

[Prober]

I suspect Russia knows it cannot successfully reclaim Dnepropetrovsk. I would like to see a human translation of:
http://www.ukrinform.ua/rus/news/v_dnepropetrovske_sostoyalis_dva_mitinga_za_i_protiv_novoy_vlasti_1608502

Google translate indicates it reports a peaceful meeting of former Soviet Communists in Dnepropetrovsk, perhaps 1 to 3 thousand in number.
Пророссийские силы во главе с "Союзом советских офицеров" под флагом Коммунистической партии УССР провели свой митинг у Оперного театра при участии от 1 до 3 тысяч участников, которые скандировали "Россия, мы с тобой!"

They marched to a building, flew a flag of Russia outside it briefly, but did not attempt to occupy the building and dispersed without much (or any) violence. My personal read on this is that these truly were people of the region acting on their own initiative, i.e. without the direct participation of Russian agents provocateur.

Is your read on that situation different?

This is New Russia from this web site.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d0/New_Russia_on_territory_of_Ukraine.PNG

[albatros68]

From sdsdsd

Is your read on that situation different?

What i read (google did it) is that existed 2 meetings, one pro-russian and one pro Ukraine. And seemed peacefully, thus no secession appears to happan

[sdsds]

This is New Russia

Pshaw. That map is circa 1897.

[osiossim]

Cyclone and Zenit are products of Yushmash in Dnepropetrovsk. This is a little west of the area that has the current unrest, but there are a majority of Russian speakers there.

It is unclear to me what would happen if Yuzhmash ended up in Russia or a Russian affiliated East Ukraine.

Antares, Cyclone-4, Sea Launch, Land Launch and Vega would be stalled. Dnepr would be terminated.

[owais.usmani]

Cyclone and Zenit are products of Yushmash in Dnepropetrovsk. This is a little west of the area that has the current unrest, but there are a majority of Russian speakers there.

It is unclear to me what would happen if Yuzhmash ended up in Russia or a Russian affiliated East Ukraine.

Antares, Cyclone-4, Sea Launch, Land Launch and Vega would be stalled. Dnepr would be terminated.

Why Vega?

[osiossim]

The current upperstage is made by Yuzhnoye in Ukraine. Vega have not fully Europeanized yet.

[Danderman]

A lot depends on the actions of Russia.

If the eastern provinces fall into civil war and detach themselves from Kiev as a separate country, that is one thing, but if Russian forces invade to annex the East into Russia, that would be the beginning of a real Cold War II.  I think that everyone would get over it more quickly if the people in the east themselves force their independence.

[Rocket Science]

It just got worse...

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/02/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA400LI20140502

[Prober]

It just got worse...

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/02/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA400LI20140502

Yes, Odessa

[Elvis in Space]

Could the crisis lead to Ukraine joining ESA?

If the country splits off its Russians, then I would imagine that Ukraine would eventually join ESA and the EU. However, the Russians operate most of the Ukrainian aerospace industry, so there would not be much to offer ESA after a split.

[in my view] the primary customer for any remaining aerospace industry will be Moscow. What may have a more immediate impact on our concerns here will be the new sanctions


edit/Lar: RUTHLESSLY EDITED. No general politics. Seriously.

[osiossim]

Why Vega?

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/vega-flies-straight-but-esa-keeps-watch-on-ukraine-398847/

[Lar]

No general politics. Hatchets will be sharpened and used as needed.

[albatros68]

Yuzhnoye still working as usual
http://aviationweek.com/space/ban-exports-russia-could-harm-global-space-industry

[sdsds]

Dmitry Tymchuk: On the Question of “YUZHMASH” Technology
Posted on April 10, 2014   
Translated and edited by Voices of Ukraine

http://maidantranslations.com/2014/04/10/dmitry-tymchuk-on-the-question-of-yuzhmash-technology/

[Danderman]

Article about Crimean facilities being taken over by Russia:

http://russianspaceweb.com/kik_nip16_b.html

[asmi]

I remember reading that Roscosmos management paid a visit to Crimea few days ago to inspect facilities and figure out if and how they can be used.

[edkyle99]

This story says that an amendment to the U.S. Pentagon budget bill tells President Obama to "begin talks with the Ukrainian government aimed at ending long-standing cooperation between Kiev and Moscow on the maintenance of their" RS-20 ICBMs, known as "Satans" in NATO.  This apparently a response to the RD-180 "ban".   Hard to believe this will actually happen - Ukraine would have to give up a load of Rubles, but tit for tat leads down such paths.

http://news.yahoo.com/congress-targets-russia-satan-missile-183839848--politics.html

 - Ed Kyle

[Prober]

This story says that an amendment to the U.S. Pentagon budget bill tells President Obama to "begin talks with the Ukrainian government aimed at ending long-standing cooperation between Kiev and Moscow on the maintenance of their" RS-20 ICBMs, known as "Satans" in NATO.  This apparently a response to the RD-180 "ban".   Hard to believe this will actually happen - Ukraine would have to give up a load of Rubles, but tit for tat leads down such paths.

http://news.yahoo.com/congress-targets-russia-satan-missile-183839848--politics.html

 - Ed Kyle

you beat me to the story Ed.....this is a major change in policy.

Rogers would like to see this agreement revoked—in part because Russia’s annexation of Crimea violates the terms of the “Budapest Memorandum” that guaranteed Ukraine’s territorial integrity after the cold war in exchange for Kiev giving up its nuclear arsenal.

Rogers’ amendment urges the Obama administration to begin talks with Ukraine aimed at halting “the activities of the Yuzhnoye Design Bureau and any other Ukrainian industry that supports the military or military industrial base of the Russian Federation while Russia is violating its commitments under the Budapest Memorandum, illegally occupying Ukrainian territory and supporting groups that are inciting violence and fomenting secessionist movements in Ukraine.”

[RyanC]

Russia was planning on retiring the SS-18 SATAN missile system anyway. This will just accelerate their plans.

[baldusi]

Wouldn't that kill Dnpr?

[russianhalo117]

Wouldn't that kill Dnpr?

Yes that is the goal. They have plans to eliminate all non Russian launchers (Toxic launchers first) by end of decade. Zenit is currently not included because of Proton failures and Kazakhstan's expressed interests in keeping the launcher once Russia departs Baikonur at the end of its present lease.

[Joel]

http://news.yahoo.com/congress-targets-russia-satan-missile-183839848--politics.html

An interesting quote from that article:

If passed into law, the Rogers amendment would require Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel to submit a report within 30 days of the bill’s passage to Congress on the U.S. plan to end any Ukrainian cooperation with Russia on the ICBMs and “any recommendations it has for how the United States and its allies could benefit from the capability of the Yuzhnoye Design Bureau.”

(My bold).

The US would have to offer Yuzhnoye an alternative source of income. What about an engine development program to remove the reliance on Russian engines in Zenith (and maybe American LVs)?

[gospacex]

IIRC Yuzhnoye doesn't produce any engines. It builds only stages (basically tanks).

[baldusi]

They do produce RCS, vernier and small engines like those on the Cyclone, the AVUM and even the RD-120 (the 900kN RP-1/LOX engine of the Zenit second stage). In the lest case is actually an NPO Energomash built under license. Thus, I don't know about the rocket rights if they break relationships with Russia. But they have presented numerous papers and even advertise in their web site that they could perfectly well develop a 1.8kN ORSC RP-1/LOX, to replace the RD-171M. They just need the financing. I ignore any other Russian elements on the stage. Who makes the Aluminum? Who makes the avionics and components? What about tanks and valves? Or GSO?
My guess is that it could be done. But they have always shown different vehicles (the Maylak family) as their desired development path.

[Joel]

But they have presented numerous papers and even advertise in their web site that they could perfectly well develop a 1.8kN ORSC RP-1/LOX, to replace the RD-171M. They just need the financing.

The average Ukrainian salary is half that of Russia, even lower than in China. A Ukrainian-made engine could potentially be very cost efficient in addition to having geopolitical payoffs (supporting economy in Eastern Ukraine, decreasing Russian influence). And being situated in Russian-speaking Ukraine, they could probably hire some NPO Energomash engineers...

[Prober]

They do produce RCS, vernier and small engines like those on the Cyclone, the AVUM and even the RD-120 (the 900kN RP-1/LOX engine of the Zenit second stage). In the lest case is actually an NPO Energomash built under license. Thus, I don't know about the rocket rights if they break relationships with Russia. But they have presented numerous papers and even advertise in their web site that they could perfectly well develop a 1.8kN ORSC RP-1/LOX, to replace the RD-171M. They just need the financing. I ignore any other Russian elements on the stage. Who makes the Aluminum? Who makes the avionics and components? What about tanks and valves? Or GSO?
My guess is that it could be done. But they have always shown different vehicles (the Maylak family) as their desired development path.

Remember they are the Serial production for the RD-120.  That's a great engine btw.

[Danderman]

IIRC Yuzhnoye doesn't produce any engines. It builds only stages (basically tanks).

Yuzhnoye doesn't produce anything. Yuzhnoye is a design bureau.

Production is handled by Yuzhmash.

[Danderman]

Remember they are the Serial production for the RD-120.  That's a great engine btw.

RD-120 is produced by Yuzhmash under license from Energomash.  What rights are given to the Ukrainian is unknown to me (can, for example, Yuzhmash modify the engine to operate at sea level and function as the engine for Antares?)

[Prober]

Remember they are the Serial production for the RD-120.  That's a great engine btw.

RD-120 is produced by Yuzhmash under license from Energomash.  What rights are given to the Ukrainian is unknown to me (can, for example, Yuzhmash modify the engine to operate at sea level and function as the engine for Antares?)

http://ste.com.ua/index.php?hl=en&idd=catalog&catalog=31d998c917c25b4024a7d4e29f7d76ae&a=533

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=31969.0

Remember also the RD-120 was sold to China and they reworked it.

[Danderman]

http://rt.com/news/161304-donetsk-lugansk-unite-state/

........... the south-eastern regions of Ukraine, where anti-government protests gained momentum, have announced the creation of a pro-federalization Popular Front socio-political coalition.

The coalition involves Odessa, Nikolaev, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye, Kharkov, Kherson, Donetsk and Lugansk Regions.

[osiossim]

Russia invited Ukrainian designers, engineers and technicians for brain drain;

http://izvestia.ru/news/569429

[clongton]

http://news.yahoo.com/congress-targets-russia-satan-missile-183839848--politics.html

An interesting quote from that article:

If passed into law, the Rogers amendment would require Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel to submit a report within 30 days of the bill’s passage to Congress on the U.S. plan to end any Ukrainian cooperation with Russia on the ICBMs and “any recommendations it has for how the United States and its allies could benefit from the capability of the Yuzhnoye Design Bureau.”

(My bold).

What about an engine development program to remove the reliance on Russian engines in Zenith (and maybe American LVs)?

Any USGov move in that direction would be proof that stupidity prevails and that the USGov does not learn from its past mistakes.

[Joel]

http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_06_17/Poroshenko-suppresses-military-industrial-cooperation-with-Russia-First-Deputy-Prime-Minister-0135/

"Starting from today, the President banned almost all cooperation in the sphere of military-industrial complex with the Russian Federation", said Yarema on the Ukrainian ICTV channel on Monday evening.