Impact of Ukrainian Crisis on Russia (not about the sanctions)

[Danderman]

Russia has now annexed the Crimea, which contains the former Yepatoria observatory and control center. I have no clue as to whether the site will be re-incorporated into the Russian ground control network, as the Luch system may make ground stations largely irrelevant.

There may be other former USSR installations in the Crimea that may be useful, as well.

However, what we may see is Eastern Ukraine either becoming independent or annexed directly to Russia. The most likely low hanging fruit in that area would be Kharkhov, which has significant manufacturing and design capability, and is relatively close to Russia. The big prize, however, would be Dnepropetrovsk, a largely Russian speaking city with enormous aerospace assets.

[MP99]

How would those assets being in Crimea affect any US contracts with Ukrainian companies (Antares, etc)?

cheers, Martin

[albatros68]

Where is Cyclone 4 made? (western Ukraine or eastern close tied to Russia?). Some news pointed that rocket as the only feasible project in present days for Ukraine

[Danderman]

Where is Cyclone 4 made? (western Ukraine or eastern close tied to Russia?). Some news pointed that rocket as the only feasible project in present days for Ukraine

Cyclone and Zenit are products of Yushmash in Dnepropetrovsk. This is a little west of the area that has the current unrest, but there are a majority of Russian speakers there.

It is unclear to me what would happen if Yuzhmash ended up in Russia or a Russian affiliated East Ukraine.

[sdsds]

I suspect Russia knows it cannot successfully reclaim Dnepropetrovsk. I would like to see a human translation of:
http://www.ukrinform.ua/rus/news/v_dnepropetrovske_sostoyalis_dva_mitinga_za_i_protiv_novoy_vlasti_1608502

Google translate indicates it reports a peaceful meeting of former Soviet Communists in Dnepropetrovsk, perhaps 1 to 3 thousand in number.
Пророссийские силы во главе с "Союзом советских офицеров" под флагом Коммунистической партии УССР провели свой митинг у Оперного театра при участии от 1 до 3 тысяч участников, которые скандировали "Россия, мы с тобой!"

They marched to a building, flew a flag of Russia outside it briefly, but did not attempt to occupy the building and dispersed without much (or any) violence. My personal read on this is that these truly were people of the region acting on their own initiative, i.e. without the direct participation of Russian agents provocateur.

Is your read on that situation different?

[Prober]

I suspect Russia knows it cannot successfully reclaim Dnepropetrovsk. I would like to see a human translation of:
http://www.ukrinform.ua/rus/news/v_dnepropetrovske_sostoyalis_dva_mitinga_za_i_protiv_novoy_vlasti_1608502

Google translate indicates it reports a peaceful meeting of former Soviet Communists in Dnepropetrovsk, perhaps 1 to 3 thousand in number.
Пророссийские силы во главе с "Союзом советских офицеров" под флагом Коммунистической партии УССР провели свой митинг у Оперного театра при участии от 1 до 3 тысяч участников, которые скандировали "Россия, мы с тобой!"

They marched to a building, flew a flag of Russia outside it briefly, but did not attempt to occupy the building and dispersed without much (or any) violence. My personal read on this is that these truly were people of the region acting on their own initiative, i.e. without the direct participation of Russian agents provocateur.

Is your read on that situation different?

This is New Russia from this web site.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d0/New_Russia_on_territory_of_Ukraine.PNG

[albatros68]

From sdsdsd

Is your read on that situation different?

What i read (google did it) is that existed 2 meetings, one pro-russian and one pro Ukraine. And seemed peacefully, thus no secession appears to happan

[sdsds]

This is New Russia

Pshaw. That map is circa 1897.

[osiossim]

Cyclone and Zenit are products of Yushmash in Dnepropetrovsk. This is a little west of the area that has the current unrest, but there are a majority of Russian speakers there.

It is unclear to me what would happen if Yuzhmash ended up in Russia or a Russian affiliated East Ukraine.

Antares, Cyclone-4, Sea Launch, Land Launch and Vega would be stalled. Dnepr would be terminated.

[owais.usmani]

Cyclone and Zenit are products of Yushmash in Dnepropetrovsk. This is a little west of the area that has the current unrest, but there are a majority of Russian speakers there.

It is unclear to me what would happen if Yuzhmash ended up in Russia or a Russian affiliated East Ukraine.

Antares, Cyclone-4, Sea Launch, Land Launch and Vega would be stalled. Dnepr would be terminated.

Why Vega?

[osiossim]

The current upperstage is made by Yuzhnoye in Ukraine. Vega have not fully Europeanized yet.

[Danderman]

A lot depends on the actions of Russia.

If the eastern provinces fall into civil war and detach themselves from Kiev as a separate country, that is one thing, but if Russian forces invade to annex the East into Russia, that would be the beginning of a real Cold War II.  I think that everyone would get over it more quickly if the people in the east themselves force their independence.

[Rocket Science]

It just got worse...

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/02/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA400LI20140502

[Prober]

It just got worse...

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/02/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA400LI20140502

Yes, Odessa

[Elvis in Space]

Could the crisis lead to Ukraine joining ESA?

If the country splits off its Russians, then I would imagine that Ukraine would eventually join ESA and the EU. However, the Russians operate most of the Ukrainian aerospace industry, so there would not be much to offer ESA after a split.

[in my view] the primary customer for any remaining aerospace industry will be Moscow. What may have a more immediate impact on our concerns here will be the new sanctions


edit/Lar: RUTHLESSLY EDITED. No general politics. Seriously.

[osiossim]

Why Vega?

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/vega-flies-straight-but-esa-keeps-watch-on-ukraine-398847/

[Lar]

No general politics. Hatchets will be sharpened and used as needed.

[albatros68]

Yuzhnoye still working as usual
http://aviationweek.com/space/ban-exports-russia-could-harm-global-space-industry

[sdsds]

Dmitry Tymchuk: On the Question of “YUZHMASH” Technology
Posted on April 10, 2014   
Translated and edited by Voices of Ukraine

http://maidantranslations.com/2014/04/10/dmitry-tymchuk-on-the-question-of-yuzhmash-technology/

[Danderman]

Article about Crimean facilities being taken over by Russia:

http://russianspaceweb.com/kik_nip16_b.html