Note that WK1 retirement just announced.
Seems that whatever path OrbATK goes, high energy US is on the board eventually meaning hydrolox handling. That's the major complication in getting to interesting performance levels. SpaceX just stays with kerolox out of cost / processing reasons and accepts the payload penalty for such - am sure they'll just stretch US as needed.
Yes, I that that's the case. Casto 30XL just isn't going to be good for doing anything other than flying LEO payloads. And not very big ones at that. Multi-stage solid boosters can help make up for the lower ISP of solids vs. SC kerolox. But that high energy upper stage is still needed. Getting a "cheap" one will be the challenge, to make the Antares system, with either kerolox or solid boosters, cost competative.
The original focus was on Delta II payloads. They wanted a liquid US but got a solid instead to limit risk. The economics close for the time Taurus II / Antares was conceived.
Interestingly, if Antares were to go to like a pair of RD-191's or 193's, or a pair of AR-1's, and they put a big hydrolox upper stage on it with two RL-10's could get performance in excess of Atlas-401 and F9v1.1 (fully expendable).
This is crossing into EELV or ULA territory. Like SpaceX.
A two RL-10 hydrolox upper stage which was mentioned for Pegasus II...and I can't imagine that OrbATK wouldn't use it for Antares too. Interestingly they mention an optional 2nd RL-10 powered hydrolox upper stage for Pegasus II...which seems odd. An Atnares with 1Mlbs of ORSC booster power, plus two hydrolox upper stages would probably have pretty darn good performance I'd think. If they could find a feasible way to add GEM-60's to it at that pad...well...
Developing two hydrolox upper stages seems to add cost for not necessaryly a lot of return for it though.
I agree - once past the kerolox engines block, they'd want a shared high energy stage.
Why you might want multiple liquid stages for an air launch vehicle is the same reason you have multiple solids on them - to optimize for specific parts of the flight profile - one where you want thrust more, the other iSP and mass fraction. Of course you shoot your LV economics doing this ... but air launch is more about versatility.
Essentially develop your "Solid Antares" and test launch first. Then when Stratolaunch is read (if ever) you add the fins to the 2nd Antares stage/1st Pegasus II booster stage, and test it on the carrier aircraft. I would think you'd build your pad from the start to accomodate whatever scale up you plan to do though.
Depends on Stratolaunch qualification and schedule. If all we are doing is building a huge aircraft to launch a big rocket, there may be no interest in facilities and flows. Then it would be like Minotaur in "some assembly required" each time. And you time development by the aircraft entering flight test meaning you have to close out LV development to move on to functional prototype,
As opposed to concurrent development/prototype/test of both, which might require a pad for separate flight test. Perhaps a prior use pad for another solid. Nothing as elaborate as Antares pad.
Depends on pad flows / GSE. If you have one location for LV integration and multiple SC integration, and handle both with specialized pad/GSE, you could lower deployment costs and retain good pad flow. Non traditional in the extreme.
Which would be the advantage to a solid Antares, if Stratolaunch actually looks like a real possibility to actually fly. Base everything at CCAFS. Have a hanger/HIB at the SLF, and then some sort of minimal MST at one of the CCAFS pads. Have the solid motors trained in from Utah and taken to the Hanger/HIB at at the SLF. That's the main base of operations. Motors that are going to be pad-launched are transported to the pad and cranes built into the MST lift them up and stack them on the pad. There's a integration room on top for vertical payload mating. Motors that will be air launched will be horizontally processed at that Hanger/HIB and then the stack mated to Startolaunch, which will take off and land from the SLF. For polar orbits, or rapid response launches, it flies out over the ocean where it can launch them.
It's an interesting concept.
This Wikipedia bit (for whatever it's worth) would also seem to indicate Pegasus II/Stratolaunch would be based out of CCAFS:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pegasus_II_(rocket)
The first and second stages will be constructed from "carbon-composite wound" cases, with the "same outside diameter as the Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) segments", and thus will be able to utilize the same ground support equipment, transportation railroad cars, and lift devices as those previously used.
Did the Shuttle SRB segments come on train all the way to KSC?
File:NASA Railroad transporting SRB segments across Indian River.jpg Or somewhere else at CCAFS? Wherever they came to for offload, it appears they are planning to use that equipment to offload the motors, and then taket them to wherever Pegasus II would be stacked. The SLF would be the only place Stratolaunch could be based there, so I can't see what else they might do.
Pegasus II would likely be stacked near the Stratolaunch hanger, or in the vicinity of SLF.
If you were to land launch, you'd need to do so in the undeveloped area either above KSC or in the area reserved for Pad 39C/D.
Heavy loads handling is the key issue - can you have a means to share handling resources with SLF and a pad. Might not be possible given land/access/distance/safety conditions.
It would also seem likely that a solid Antares would lease a high bay in the VAB, repurpose an old MLP, and launch form 39B, if they are already right there. But Jim said nothing but SLS will operate there ever, so I would think LC-36 or LC-46 if not KSC.
Not sure how Wallops might play into it, if at all.
Sorry, this is a fantasy. Governments can do such financially dumb things, but not businesses.
And I'm dubious if even government can afford such any more.
Never going to happen at WFF either. No airport, rail systems not necessarily able to handle such to facility. Dubious of scale of investment to facilities.
So here's a question. I get the impression that not all USAF/DoD payloads require vertical integration. There was some mention about SpaceX that they were reviewing the USAF/DoD payloads that were compatible with horizontal integration, and SpaceX was going to try to bid on those first while they were getting their vertical integration infrastructure developed. So I'm wondering how many of those 12 VAFB EELV launches ever flown actually required vertical integration over the past 12 years? I wonder if OrbATK could just opt to not bid on USAF/DoD payloads that were to have polar orbits and require vertical integration?
Same as SpaceX here. It's my impression that anyone following EELV has no guarantees of selection for vertical integration launches AT ALL. So they all wish to avoid "build it and they'll come" ... and they don't come.
Yes there are some that SpaceX can bid on. Some in interesting ways too.
So my take is that a launch services vendor builds up a launch services business first that is attractive to government launches, and that a launch is awarded requiring vertical integration IN ADVANCE, and that is used to "front load" facilities expansion.
Likely for SpaceX this will be part of CC at pad 39A. It may not be all that is needed / desired for AF launches. But enough to make it for some. Which means some becomes more.
This is more elusive for Antares.
And just forgo those, and opt for any polar orbit payload compatible with horizontal integration, or equitorial oribt that was either vertical or horizontal integration compatable. My guess is that would cover over 90% of USAF/DoD payloads, but would save OrbATK the expense of any VAFB facility, much less a vertically integrated one. Let SpaceX and ULA fight over those occasional payloads.
It also depends on if Pegasus II would have enough capability for the USAF/DoD polar payloads.
First order is to handle "interesting" payloads that can be encapsulated/integrated appropriately. Non "experimental project" payloads, but serious missions with exacting requirements. Next are ones requiring vertical integration, possibly even science missions not AF.
Missed my point. Use Stratolaunch to handle entire monolithic motors for land launch boosters to surround core, using same handling equipment for Stratolaunch cores ...
I must have missed it. You mean instead of a big in-line solid booster for land launch, it would use mutiple Pegasus II 1st stage boosters in parallel?
Its a cargo aircraft. Lifts heavy cylinders. Cylinders can be many things. Like longer monolithic "stage 0" boosters that can be paired with a core solid stages 1/2 and others. So think of other ways to leverage the cargo aspect.
I would be surprised if it wasn't that way right now. They expect Realpolitik to win over 300 inconvenient deaths because you can't upset commerce even if Putin handed a drunk Cossack a SAM to fire. Watch the French ship debacle - it may signal which way things will go.
My read is that Ukraine is a symptom of a larger issue that will continue to rear its head thru multiple events. The west will eventually press the financial services sanctions button at some point. Six months later a new government of sorts has bloody spasms. Does not encourage steady vendor relationship through all that.
So I wouldn't bet on anything as certain. Only that kerolox as supplied will be used, either AJ-26 or RD-191 (the decision between the two is more about volume of Angara vs Soyuz, but the 193 is more suited to Antares). If a nervous Congress yanks them, then we have an issue. My guess is the legislation will be mostly for show and allow an "out" for existing contracts.
Yup, that'd be my concern with continuing depending on Ukranian supplied cores and Russian supplied engines. Just the political mine field potential in the future. But any move away from sticking with that would seem to favor solids vs. a US made ORSC engine and a US made liquid booster core.
People minimise the long term Russia issues too much.
I think we'll be flying off many more Russian engines, with lots more threat, and many will just go heads down.
They won't hedge with large solids. More likely to hedge eventually with SpaceX. Delta IV will be an expensive distraction that they won't invest in. AR will get money to toy with kerolox. Perhaps some increased action on small solids dominated LVs.
If they are stupid and let Atlas/Falcon get wrecked somehow by dumb policy, then they'll suck it in with Delta IV and mess with new things, but no one will trust budgets for new launch services because they will remember the carnage.
The "made in the USA" nonsense went away in the 90's or before. Just happy talk. However, Russian instability also doesn't go away either - this will hobble both OrbATK and ULA, who don't have SpaceX's financial resources.
Elon's trying to bring it back though. And having some success at it.
Very unpredictable. Politics are peculiar. Lots of dumb, vicious stuff right now. Nothing smart.