Author Topic: LIVE: Soyuz-2-1A - Cosmos 2495 (Kobalt-M) – Plesetsk – May 6, 2014 (1349UTC)  (Read 53787 times)

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A Kobalt-M satellite will be launched from Plesetsk Cosmodrome on May 6, 2014, using a Soyuz-2-1A launch vehicle.

Launch Coverage Sponsored by ATK:
« Last Edit: 05/11/2014 06:26 pm by Satori »

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NOTAM:

V3597/14 - TEMPO DANGER AREA ACT WI COORD: 6600N 04530E-6542N 04640E-6628N 04810E-6647N 04710E-6600N 04530E. SFC - UNL, DAILY 0800-1100, 06 MAY 08:00 2014 UNTIL 08 MAY 11:00 2014. CREATED: 02 MAY 12:02 2014

V3596/14 - ATS RTE SEGMENTS CLSD: A333 PERUD - NARYAN-MAR VORDME (NRM), R355 MEZEN NDB (MZ) - RIGNI. SFC - UNL, DAILY 0800-1100, 06 MAY 08:00 2014 UNTIL 08 MAY 11:00 2014. CREATED: 02 MAY 11:50 2014

V3595/14 - ATS RTE SEGMENTS CLSD: B200 KOMOV - OSKEP, G375 BEKOT - OSKEP, G722 KUMEN - OSKEP. SFC - UNL, DAILY 0800-1100, 06 MAY 08:00 2014 UNTIL 08 MAY 11:00 2014. CREATED: 02 MAY 11:42 2014


Looks like it's flying to a 74°-ish inclination orbit?  ::)
« Last Edit: 05/03/2014 05:36 am by Galactic Penguin SST »
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Offline ostangen

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If we go back to the 2012 launch
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=28640.0;all

None of the above NOTAMS where issued.

But this one is identical to a NOTAM active in the 2012 launch

V3594/14 - ATS RTE SEGMENTS CLSD: A333 SOTIS - DELIL, G355 SOTIS - DOBUT, G911 KOMOV - MEZEN NDB (MZ), R355 ROKUT - MEZEN NDB (MZ). SFC - UNL, DAILY 1345-1445, 06 MAY 13:45 2014 UNTIL 08 MAY 14:45 2014. CREATED: 02 MAY 11:04 2014.


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If we go back to the 2012 launch
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=28640.0;all

None of the above NOTAMS where issued.

But this one is identical to a NOTAM active in the 2012 launch

V3594/14 - ATS RTE SEGMENTS CLSD: A333 SOTIS - DELIL, G355 SOTIS - DOBUT, G911 KOMOV - MEZEN NDB (MZ), R355 ROKUT - MEZEN NDB (MZ). SFC - UNL, DAILY 1345-1445, 06 MAY 13:45 2014 UNTIL 08 MAY 14:45 2014. CREATED: 02 MAY 11:04 2014.

So it looks like the above 3 NOTAMs are probably not related to the launch, but this one is. Launch time would then be ~14:00 UTC (the last one, Kosmos 2480, was launched at 14:05 UTC on May 17, 2012).
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Offline Phillip Clark

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Perhaps the launch time is indicative of a flight lasting around 130 days again - maybe a bit longer to break the current "duration record" for a close-look Yantar.
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Offline input~2

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NOTAM for 1st stage and 2nd stage debris

V3604/14 - FLT PROHIBITED WI AREAS BOUNDED BY COORD: AREA 1: 631600N 0412300E-625200N 0420200E-624000N 0412200E- 622900N 0402500E-624000N 0394200E-624800N 0393200E- 625700N 0401800E-631600N 0412300E. AREA 2: 662500N 0422000E-662500N 0434000E-654000N 0432000E- 654000N 0420000E-662500N 0422000E. AREA 3: 762000N 0592000E-760000N 0614000E-745500N 0582000E- 752000N 0562000E-762000N 0592000E. SFC - UNL, DAILY 1345-1445, 06 MAY 13:45 2014 UNTIL 08 MAY 14:45 2014. CREATED: 03 MAY 08:20 2014

Lift-off around 1400UTC
« Last Edit: 05/03/2014 12:11 pm by input~2 »

Offline Stan Black

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So what do we know…

Satellite Kobalt-M
Product 11Ф695 №564; entire system covered under index 14К157.
4th generation or stage of modernisation; so does that make it the fourth or fifth version?
62nd from manufacturer Arsenal to be launched; with serial numbers 503 to 565.
Integrated propulsion system has index 17Д52; with up to 900 kilogrammes of propellant.
Total satellite mass up to 6,700 kilogrammes.
Lifespan up to 180 days.
On-board computer system type 14М828 also used by Persona and the future Pion-NKS.
Main camera optics with index 17В311М.
Other equipment includes two БОКЗ-М star trackers.
1st to use Soyuz-2 (variant 1A) launch vehicle; possible introduction of new fairing 14С74. Possibility a Soyuz-U (variant PVB) was ordered but used for the previous launch in 2012.
Delayed from 2013; reason unknown.
Launch site Plesetsk 17П32-С4.

Offline Artyom.

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Soyuz-2-1A was rolled out to the launch pad today.

http://ria.ru/defense_safety/20140504/1006479505.html (in Russian)

Offline Prober

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Soyuz-2-1A was rolled out to the launch pad today.

http://ria.ru/defense_safety/20140504/1006479505.html (in Russian)

yes, nice Pic
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Soyuz-2-1A was rolled out to the launch pad today.

http://ria.ru/defense_safety/20140504/1006479505.html (in Russian)

yes, nice Pic

Stock photo unfortunately......
(from this launch IIRC)
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Offline Phillip Clark

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Above, Stan Black gives an aspirational flight time of around 180 days for Kobalt-M.

Historically, the longest flight of any close-look Yantar is that of Cosmos 2377 (Kobalt #554) which flew for just over 133 days.   The longest flight in the Kobalt-M programme was # 563, Cosmos 2480 launched in 2012.

The only Russian film-return satellite that has flown longer that 180 days has been the second phase Orlets, launched on the Zenit-2 twice.
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Offline Star One

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Soyuz-2-1A - Kobalt-M – Plesetsk – May 6, 2014 (ETD ~1400UTC)
« Reply #12 on: 05/04/2014 06:25 pm »
Am I correct in thinking this is the first Kobalt-M to fly since 2012?
« Last Edit: 05/04/2014 06:26 pm by Star One »

Offline Phillip Clark

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Am I correct in thinking this is the first Kobalt-M to fly since 2012?

Yes, you are.
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Offline Star One

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Am I correct in thinking this is the first Kobalt-M to fly since 2012?

Yes, you are.

That's a rather large gap considering their previous flight rate?

Offline Phillip Clark

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There tend to be only 1-2 launches in the photoreconnaissance satellite programme in any calendar year these days.   Last year we had the launch of the second Persona-1/Kvarts, so perhaps the successful operation of that satellite meant that the Kobalt-M was delayed?

This could be a really "busy" year if we get the Kobalt-M launch, the third and final Persona-1 *and* also the debut of Bars-M!
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Offline Artyom.

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Unofficially(!): launch time is 13:45:39 UTC  :) .

UPD: 13:49:35 UTC  ;)
« Last Edit: 05/06/2014 01:07 pm by Artyom. »

Offline gosnold

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Do you think there is a case for building film return satellites (because they are cheaper to build for instance), or are the Russians launching them because they have spares on their hands?

Offline Chris Bergin

Moved for live coverage.
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Chris, I don't see any webcast schedule for this launch.

Offline Artyom.

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Yes, the live broadcast will not be... As always ;) .

Offline Chris Bergin

William Graham's extensive overview treatment provided for this launch!

http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2014/05/soyuz-2-1a-kobalt-m-reconnaissance-satellite/
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Offline woods170

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With an ATK/SLS image in the article?

Offline Phillip Clark

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William Graham's extensive overview treatment provided for this launch!
http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2014/05/soyuz-2-1a-kobalt-m-reconnaissance-satellite/

I thought it would be Cosmos 2492: have I missed a couple of Cosmos designators somewhere?
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Offline Chris Bergin

With an ATK/SLS image in the article?

They are sponsoring launch coverage here. See the first post of the thread.
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Can someone explain this photo?  Is that a display?  If so, I've never seen a booster displayed vertically suspended in mid-air :)
Best quote heard during an inspection, "I was unaware that I was the only one who was aware."

Offline Phillip Clark

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I think that the Vostok launcher is still displayed outside the KOCMOC pavillion at what used to the Economics Achievements park in Moscow.

Sometimes it is displayed vertically like the photo here.   When I was there way back in 1988 it was horizontal.
« Last Edit: 05/06/2014 10:04 am by Phillip Clark »
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William Graham's extensive overview treatment provided for this launch!
http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2014/05/soyuz-2-1a-kobalt-m-reconnaissance-satellite/

I thought it would be Cosmos 2492: have I missed a couple of Cosmos designators somewhere?

No, you haven't. This will be Cosmos 2492.

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http://www.tvsamara.ru/index.php?id=3&DT=06.05.2014&nom=2261 is reporting that the launch will take place at 1348UTC.

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Offline Artyom.

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.......13:49:39 UTC per unofficial reports.
Yes, it's me  :D .

About 10 minutes to launch.

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Let's keep an eye on the Russian news services. Standing by for news about the launch and launch success.

Offline input~2

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« Last Edit: 05/06/2014 01:54 pm by input~2 »

Offline Artyom.

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« Last Edit: 05/06/2014 01:56 pm by Artyom. »

Offline Chris Bergin

http://itar-tass.com/nauka/1167933

That's no help without an explanation. We don't all read Russian you know! ;)

And google translate didn't help

"MOSCOW, May 6. / ITAR-TASS /. Troops of Aerospace Defense (ASD) on Tuesday will hold the launch of the spacecraft from the Baikonur military in Plesetsk."

Hold as in scrub, or hold as in host.
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Offline input~2

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Offline Chris Bergin

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Offline input~2

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Another confirmation of successful lift-off at 1349UTC
http://itar-tass.com/nauka/1169734

Offline Phillip Clark

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Note that the Russians have historically tended to "chop" launch times, ignoring seconds, rather than rounding them.
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Excuse me. Could anybody provide some information about the events of the launch, such as the satellite separation time, separation orbit etc.? Many thanks!

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Excuse me. Could anybody provide some information about the events of the launch, such as the satellite separation time, separation orbit etc.? Many thanks!

It's listed in the article above and on the NSF article about the launch.  ;)
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Offline Chris Bergin

Yeah, let's get it on this page too: The work of the superb William Graham.

http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2014/05/soyuz-2-1a-kobalt-m-reconnaissance-satellite/

Any chance of a launch image sometime soon?
« Last Edit: 05/06/2014 02:34 pm by Chris Bergin »
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Offline Phillip Clark

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Cosmos 2392 has been catalogued as being 2014-025A / 39732: two elsets which are really identical so far, confirming the inclination as being 81.4 deg.

No sign of the Blok I third stage yet..
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Offline ngilmore

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Excellent coverage and article as usual.

One clarification requested about the article: http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2014/05/soyuz-2-1a-kobalt-m-reconnaissance-satellite/

Quote
The spacecraft, No.564, is likely to be the penultimate Kobal’t, with the type being retired in favour of the more modern Persona series of satellites.

This sentence says it is the second to last, then seems to imply it is the last one. After reading this, I'm not sure if one more Kobal’t is expected or not.

Offline Phillip Clark

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There is one more Kobalt-M satellite left for launch, and it's expected to fly in about a year.
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Offline Stan Black

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Excellent coverage and article as usual.

One clarification requested about the article: http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2014/05/soyuz-2-1a-kobalt-m-reconnaissance-satellite/

Quote
The spacecraft, No.564, is likely to be the penultimate Kobal’t, with the type being retired in favour of the more modern Persona series of satellites.

This sentence says it is the second to last, then seems to imply it is the last one. After reading this, I'm not sure if one more Kobal’t is expected or not.


Evidence for another:-

Quote
Блок оптический "Астрар-1" НРДК.202361.001 для комплектования опытного образца прибор БОКЗ-М для летной эксплуатации в составе изделия 11Ф695 № 565 (3321020): 2,00 ШТ;
http://www.zakupki.gov.ru/pgz/public/action/contracts/info/common_info/show?contractInfoId=9605335

Quote
Поставка ЭРИ для комплектования 2 штатных образцов прибора БОКЗ-М изделия 11Ф695 № 565 с проведением закупки, входного контроля, отбраковочных испытаний, диагностического неразрушающего контроля и выборочного разрушающего физического анализа
http://www.zakupki.gov.ru/pgz/public/action/contracts/info/common_info/show?contractInfoId=14999679

Also?
Quote
Ликвидация аппаратуры приборного отсека спускаемого аппарата серии «Космос», содержащей радиоактивные элементы – всего 3 штуки, из них: 2012 год -1 штука,
2013 год -1 штука, 2014 год -1 штука
http://www.zakupki.gov.ru/pgz/public/action/orders/info/common_info/show?notificationId=2876704

Offline input~2

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Cosmos 2392 has been catalogued as being 2014-025A / 39732: two elsets which are really identical so far, confirming the inclination as being 81.4 deg.

No sign of the Blok I third stage yet..
First object catalogued in 176 x 285 km x 81.41°

Offline input~2

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Spacecraft now called Cosmos-2495
http://itar-tass.com/nauka/1170279

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Spacecraft now called Cosmos-2495
http://itar-tass.com/nauka/1170279


Can someone explain why are they calling Cosmos-2495 to this satellite?

Offline input~2

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Second object 2014-025B/39733 catalogued in:
176 x 280 km x 81.41°

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Spacecraft now called Cosmos-2495
http://itar-tass.com/nauka/1170279


Can someone explain why are they calling Cosmos-2495 to this satellite?

Well, the only explanation I can find at this moment for this is that the three satellites from the first Soyuz-2.1v launch were also given Kosmos designations.

And so, if this is Kosmos-2495, then the last GLONASS-M satellite launched in March is Kosmos-2494.
« Last Edit: 05/06/2014 09:10 pm by Satori »

Offline jcm

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Spacecraft now called Cosmos-2495
http://itar-tass.com/nauka/1170279


Can someone explain why are they calling Cosmos-2495 to this satellite?

Well, the only explanation I can find at this moment for this is that the three satellites from the first Soyuz-2.1v launch were also given Kosmos designations.

And so, if this is Kosmos-2495, then the last GLONASS-M satellite launched in March is Kosmos-2494.

But https://glonass-iac.ru/en/CUSGLONASS/index.php says that one is 2491.
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Spacecraft now called Cosmos-2495
http://itar-tass.com/nauka/1170279


Can someone explain why are they calling Cosmos-2495 to this satellite?

Well, the only explanation I can find at this moment for this is that the three satellites from the first Soyuz-2.1v launch were also given Kosmos designations.

And so, if this is Kosmos-2495, then the last GLONASS-M satellite launched in March is Kosmos-2494.

But https://glonass-iac.ru/en/CUSGLONASS/index.php says that one is 2491.

...and at http://www.sdcm.ru/smglo/grupglo?version=rus&site=extern it says it's K-2494.  :-\

The only plausible explanation is that the payloads of the Dec. 28 Soyuz-2.1v launch were given K-2491-3. (unless of course the Russians are issuing numbers out of sequence) Maybe that's a similar deal to that the payloads of the STP-S26 launch given USA #s even when many of them are civilian...
« Last Edit: 05/07/2014 04:13 am by Galactic Penguin SST »
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Any thoughts as to why the russians are not launching into sun-synch for this system?  Limits on launch azimuth don't appear obvious...
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Any thoughts as to why the russians are not launching into sun-synch for this system?  Limits on launch azimuth don't appear obvious...

The Persona-1 satellites are launched to SSO, as will be the Bars-M series, I believe.   It is simply that the Kobalt-M satellites were not designed to be launched to SSO.

As new imaging satellites come online they will use SSO, but remember that Kobalt-M has its roots in the 1970s Feniks satellites which flew to posigrade orbits.
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Spacecraft now called Cosmos-2495
http://itar-tass.com/nauka/1170279


Can someone explain why are they calling Cosmos-2495 to this satellite?

Well, the only explanation I can find at this moment for this is that the three satellites from the first Soyuz-2.1v launch were also given Kosmos designations.

And so, if this is Kosmos-2495, then the last GLONASS-M satellite launched in March is Kosmos-2494.

But https://glonass-iac.ru/en/CUSGLONASS/index.php says that one is 2491.

...and at http://www.sdcm.ru/smglo/grupglo?version=rus&site=extern it says it's K-2494.  :-\

The only plausible explanation is that the payloads of the Dec. 28 Soyuz-2.1v launch were given K-2491-3. (unless of course the Russians are issuing numbers out of sequence) Maybe that's a similar deal to that the payloads of the STP-S26 launch given USA #s even when many of them are civilian...

The SKRL spheres got Kosmos numbers. Aist didn't got a Kosmos number.

Offline Skyrocket

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Spacecraft now called Cosmos-2495
http://itar-tass.com/nauka/1170279


Can someone explain why are they calling Cosmos-2495 to this satellite?

Well, the only explanation I can find at this moment for this is that the three satellites from the first Soyuz-2.1v launch were also given Kosmos designations.

And so, if this is Kosmos-2495, then the last GLONASS-M satellite launched in March is Kosmos-2494.

But https://glonass-iac.ru/en/CUSGLONASS/index.php says that one is 2491.

...and at http://www.sdcm.ru/smglo/grupglo?version=rus&site=extern it says it's K-2494.  :-\

The only plausible explanation is that the payloads of the Dec. 28 Soyuz-2.1v launch were given K-2491-3. (unless of course the Russians are issuing numbers out of sequence) Maybe that's a similar deal to that the payloads of the STP-S26 launch given USA #s even when many of them are civilian...

The SKRL spheres got Kosmos numbers. Aist didn't got a Kosmos number.

This still leaves us short of one Kosmos number. Perhaps the dummy mass/payload adoptor on this mission got also a Kosmos number?

Offline Artyom.

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Another launch video  8)


Offline Chris Bergin

Oh that's a good one, Artyom! ;D Better image for the article too!
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Another launch video  8)



Great sound and that obnoxious water drop finally got what it deserved when the shock from launch got it out of the way :)
Best quote heard during an inspection, "I was unaware that I was the only one who was aware."

Offline edkyle99

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Semi-mystical image from rollout video.

And another shot giving a decent view of the fairing.

 - Ed Kyle
« Last Edit: 05/07/2014 03:39 pm by edkyle99 »

Offline Phillip Clark

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It is now well over 30 hours since the last TLEs were issued for Cosmos 2495 ..........
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Offline jcm

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Spacecraft now called Cosmos-2495
http://itar-tass.com/nauka/1170279


Can someone explain why are they calling Cosmos-2495 to this satellite?

Well, the only explanation I can find at this moment for this is that the three satellites from the first Soyuz-2.1v launch were also given Kosmos designations.

And so, if this is Kosmos-2495, then the last GLONASS-M satellite launched in March is Kosmos-2494.

But https://glonass-iac.ru/en/CUSGLONASS/index.php says that one is 2491.

...and at http://www.sdcm.ru/smglo/grupglo?version=rus&site=extern it says it's K-2494.  :-\

The only plausible explanation is that the payloads of the Dec. 28 Soyuz-2.1v launch were given K-2491-3. (unless of course the Russians are issuing numbers out of sequence) Maybe that's a similar deal to that the payloads of the STP-S26 launch given USA #s even when many of them are civilian...

The SKRL spheres got Kosmos numbers. Aist didn't got a Kosmos number.

This still leaves us short of one Kosmos number. Perhaps the dummy mass/payload adoptor on this mission got also a Kosmos number?

Claude Lafleur has pointed out to me that some sources gave Kosmos numbers to the three Gonets satellites launched in Sep 2013.
That could be an alternate explanation...
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Offline Stan Black

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Another Космос-2495 reference
http://ofo.ikiweb.ru/bokz.php

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My two cents for trying to explain the missing Kosmos http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=34660.msg1195602#msg1195602

Offline Phillip Clark

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Still no new TLEs for Cosmos 2495 for three days.   Surely it can't have been lost??!!!!!!
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It flies extremely low, maybe was is below the horizon of USAF radars until now.

Offline Star One

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Still no new TLEs for Cosmos 2495 for three days.   Surely it can't have been lost??!!!!!!

Maybe it's meant to be "lost".

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Diffrent launch times :jcm's launchlog 13:49:39
                                  NK-Forum and here 13:49:35
What is right ?
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Offline anik

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Diffrent launch times :jcm's launchlog 13:49:39
                                  NK-Forum and here 13:49:35
What is right ?

13:49:34.901 UTC.

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Offline jcm

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Diffrent launch times :jcm's launchlog 13:49:39
                                  NK-Forum and here 13:49:35
What is right ?

13:49:34.901 UTC.

Sorry, will fix it in the next update - jonathan
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Offline gwiz

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Apparently recovered yesterday, according to Space-Track.

Offline Phillip Clark

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Apparently recovered yesterday, according to Space-Track.

So, not a record-breaking duration then.   I wonder if next year's final Kobalt-M will break the 133 days duration record?
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Offline russianhalo117

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Apparently recovered yesterday, according to Space-Track.

So, not a record-breaking duration then.   I wonder if next year's final Kobalt-M will break the 133 days duration record?
not likely given the current Geopolitical situations since film canister return would be in higher demand right now.
« Last Edit: 09/04/2014 04:55 pm by russianhalo117 »

Offline Phillip Clark

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Just been playing with some numbers.

No two-lines were issued for September 3rd, so maybe the satellite was recalled the previous day with a landing at about 18:26 UTC?   That would mean that the final TLE to be issued is also the final equator crossing of the satellite.

Alternatively, the satellite might have landed about 18:11 UTC on September 3rd with no TLEs being issued during the day.

These figures assume a final equator crossing between 40-45 deg E which is low but not unprecedented for this orbital inclination.
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Offline jcm

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Just been playing with some numbers.

No two-lines were issued for September 3rd, so maybe the satellite was recalled the previous day with a landing at about 18:26 UTC?   That would mean that the final TLE to be issued is also the final equator crossing of the satellite.

Alternatively, the satellite might have landed about 18:11 UTC on September 3rd with no TLEs being issued during the day.

These figures assume a final equator crossing between 40-45 deg E which is low but not unprecedented for this orbital inclination.

Note that the space-track decay message has a MSG_EPOCH of 0748 UTC Sep 3. So I think it must be
a Sep 2 landing; I get 1828 UTC so pretty good agreement with you; equator crossing at 46E.

 - Jonathan
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Offline jcm

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Now if only we had recovery dates for the small SpK film capsules!
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Offline Phillip Clark

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The following has been posted on the SEESAT mailing list by Bjφrn Gimle:

Rob Matson sent me the following info, of which I was not aware otherwise:

...I do occasionally check the archives to see if interesting events that
I’m aware of have been brought up there. I was VERY surprised to see that
no one has mentioned the spectacular administrative decay of Cosmos 2495
three nights ago over Colorado and Wyoming!
It was witnessed by hundreds of people and the debris cloud is very
impressive on Doppler radar (a snapshot of which I’ve attached). That
drifting debris cloud is visible for over half an hour in radar images from
Denver and Cheyenne. A little surprising to me that the Russians would
command destructive reentry to occur over land rather than ocean –
especially over CONUS – when some pieces of the 6.7-ton satellite will
likely survive to the ground.
...
The reentry occurred at around 10:30 *pm* local time Sep.2, so not a daytime
reentry.  Feel free to post my comments to SeeSat with my name.
I'll be a little surprised if there wasn't at least one list member who
witnessed it.


So, was the main descent module from Cosmos 2495 recovered inside Russia or did it decay from orbit?
I've always been crazy but it's kept me from going insane - WJ.

Online Galactic Penguin SST

The following has been posted on the SEESAT mailing list by Bjφrn Gimle:

Rob Matson sent me the following info, of which I was not aware otherwise:

...I do occasionally check the archives to see if interesting events that
I’m aware of have been brought up there. I was VERY surprised to see that
no one has mentioned the spectacular administrative decay of Cosmos 2495
three nights ago over Colorado and Wyoming!
It was witnessed by hundreds of people and the debris cloud is very
impressive on Doppler radar (a snapshot of which I’ve attached). That
drifting debris cloud is visible for over half an hour in radar images from
Denver and Cheyenne. A little surprising to me that the Russians would
command destructive reentry to occur over land rather than ocean –
especially over CONUS – when some pieces of the 6.7-ton satellite will
likely survive to the ground.
...
The reentry occurred at around 10:30 *pm* local time Sep.2, so not a daytime
reentry.  Feel free to post my comments to SeeSat with my name.
I'll be a little surprised if there wasn't at least one list member who
witnessed it.


So, was the main descent module from Cosmos 2495 recovered inside Russia or did it decay from orbit?

Maybe that's why the de-orbit position wasn't reported by, e.g. the Aerospace Group?

The timing seems to be about 10 hours after the nominal de-orbit time - so if this is confirmed that means that the de-orbiting was somehow goofed up?  ::)
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Offline Phillip Clark

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The following has recently  been posted to the SEESAT mailing list by Thomas Ashcraft:

I posted a video of ( likely ) Cosmos 2495 as it passed over New Mexico
on September 03, 2014, from 0431 UT to 0433 UT.



Brief and preliminary notes:

September 03 2014  -  0431 to 0433 UT

I think this is the Cosmos 2495 satellite descent and decay as it was
passing from south to north over New Mexico just before it reentered the
ionosphere over Colorado. I am not sure if it is engaging the ionosphere
at this point and burning. ? Maybe it is just starting to make friction
? Perhaps others can analyze this and let me know.

This event was captured on my Sentinel all-sky camera which is primarily
a fireball camera that I merged with my VHF forward scatter radio array.
This particular capture was baffling to me as it sounded like a
satellite radio reflection but it was an odd reception. I actually
thought it might have been some sort of airplane since its light
appeared to fluctuate especially as it traveled north of my location. I
even thought it might have been some sort of a secret experimental
aircraft (like the Aurora project plane that used to be sighted over New
Mexico many years ago.)

In any case, I luckily saved the video and put it into my inconclusive
file, later to find out by reading the seesat list that it was likely
the Cosmos 2495 re-entry.

Radio-wise: Note the dopplering scatter reflections in the first fifty
seconds. The analog scatter transmitters were likely Mexican tv stations
broadcasting at 61.250 MHz CW and 83.250 MHz CW. Listen close in stereo.

Any further elucidation of this event is welcome. I an an observer and
recorder but not a reentry analyst.

Any corrections to my notes and text is welcomed.

(Also, sorry for the dim quality of video. My old camera is pretty worn
out and the white dots are not stars but rather dead pixels.  Yet it is
still a pretty good fireball capture system.

Thomas Ashcraft
ashcraft (at) heliotown.com
Radio Fireball Observatory
New Mexico

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Offline jcm

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Very strange.

Could be a nonstandard southbound recovery  on that orbit with the service module somehow skipping on the atmosphere and doing a partial orbit?
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Offline Star One

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Excellent analysis here :

http://www.spaceflight101.com/kosmos-2495-re-entry.html

If the film capsule has come down intact in North America that could be interesting. Would the Russian's ask for it back, not so ridiculous as it might seem as the US formally asked for the RQ-170 drone back that went down in Iran.

Offline Phillip Clark

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Maybe it's old age and stupidity coupled with my sight issues, but the debris path isn't parallel with the orbital path for Cosmos 2495 and it's to the east.   I wonder if the satellite came down as planned and by coincidence something else came into the atmosphere and broke up, only to be mistake for Cosmos 2495.   The odds of this are slim but they are non-zero.
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Offline Danderman

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http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=19386.0

A thread about a similar incident, where the service module came down in Mexico, although the return capsule presumably landed in Russia.

Offline input~2

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Online Galactic Penguin SST

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=19386.0

A thread about a similar incident, where the service module came down in Mexico, although the return capsule presumably landed in Russia.

Maybe this time it's something like this too - apparently fireballs were seen at around the nominal landing time (around 18:15 UTC Sep. 2) across western Kazakhstan and southern Russia, consistent with the track of K-2495 from the south on a nominal de-orbiting.

A list of videos of that fireball can be found here.

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Offline Lee Jay

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You're not going to believe this, but I caught video of this thing on my video cameras at work (I think).

EDIT:  Yep...looks like I got it from three angles.
« Last Edit: 09/09/2014 10:37 pm by Lee Jay »

Offline Phillip Clark

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Posting by Ted Molczan on SEESAT.   I think that this just about wraps it up and whatever was seen over the USA was *not* Cosmos 2495.


I am now confident that the fireball seen over the western U.S. on 2014 Sep 03 near 04:33 UTC was not Cosmos 2495
(14025A / 39732). That became improbable when it was recognized that the slow-moving fireball seen more than 10 h
earlier over Western Kazakhstan and Orenburg region (Russia) must have been Cosmos 2495. For it to have been the cause
of both fireballs would have required an incomplete de-orbit burn.

I tested that hypothesis by creating a TLE at the approximate time of the de-orbit burn (2014 Sep 02 17:40 UTC), that
when it reached Kazakhstan ~45 min later, would have just reached the altitude when re-entering objects become
self-luminous, which I normally take to be 96 km. I then fit a decay term by trial and error using Satevo, that would
have resulted in re-entry on Sep 03 near 04:40 UTC, several minutes after the U.S. fireball sighting.

The resulting de-orbit TLE, shown below, passes over Western Kazakhstan at about 18:14 UTC, at about 96 km altitude:

1 70000U          14245.73611112  .17600000  00000-0  80777-4 0    05
2 70000  81.3770 299.0950 0128000  52.4336 214.0000 16.37300000    00

This is the final TLE before re-entry of the above orbit, propagated by Satevo:

1 70000U          14246.17706951 1.15185463  27284 2  16568-3 0 90009
2 70000  81.3675 298.4863 0025344  50.6326 309.5915 16.65049125    77

It passes over the area of the fireball sighting in the U.S. on Sep 03 near 04:24 UTC, about 10 min earlier than the
fireball was seen. This represents the best-case scenario, and it depends on favourable, but unrealistic assumptions.

No effort was made to estimate the decay term from the object's actual ballistic coefficient. Had this been done, I
suspect the decay term would have been significantly greater, causing the object to decay well before it reached the
U.S. Based on the videos of the Kazakhstan fireball, the re-entry probably had progressed well below 96 km. Had a more
realistic altitude been chosen, the case for survival to reach the U.S. would be further weakened.

My preliminary analysis of the possibility that the U.S. fireball was due to uncatalogued debris jettisoned just prior
to the de-orbit burn tends to support, but does not prove that hypothesis.

I propagated the last known TLE to the approximate time of the de-orbit burn, and assumed that the orbit of the
jettisoned debris would have differed only in rate of decay. I then fit a decay term by trial and error using Satevo,
that would have resulted in re-entry on Sep 03 near 04:40 UTC, several minutes after the U.S. fireball sighting:

1 70001U          14245.73611113  .13400000  00000-0  78682-2 0    01
2 70001  81.3770 299.0950 0034344 130.9033 134.4989 16.17169265    09

This is the final TLE before re-entry of the above orbit, propagated by Satevo:

1 70001U          14246.18294601 2.42452645  43066 2  41010-2 0 90000
2 70001  81.3681 298.4965 0008820 129.1327 230.9457 16.47601197    72

This orbit passed over the region of the U.S. fireball sightings about one minute too early. Since the underlying model
of TLEs (SGP4) is not designed to propagate the final descent accurately, I made lower altitude versions of the above,
closer to the likely altitude of the fireball. I was able to obtain a reasonably good agreement with the trajectory data
reported by the Cloudbait observatory, albeit about one minute early. The result is sufficiently close to warrant a more
rigorous analysis. The meteor explanation is not ruled out.

It is necessary to review the previous eight Kobal't-M launches to learn as much as possible about the debris jettisoned
prior to the de-orbit burn. Of particular interest is the typical time of jettison relative the de-orbit burn, the
delta-V of separation, and the ballistic coefficient. The number of pieces of debris catalogued has ranged between zero
and three. The zeros may have been the result of decay before cataloguing could occur.

Ted Molczan

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Several different places in Russian territory...From NK forum...












« Last Edit: 09/10/2014 07:24 pm by osiossim »

Offline Nicolas PILLET

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This appears to be quoted from and an official JSPOC release but I can't find it

http://en.ria.ru/russia/20140912/192867400/US-Strategic-Command-Confident-About-Russian-Military-Satellite.html

MOSCOW, September 12 (RIA Novosti) - Russian reconnaissance satellite Kosmos-2495 re-entered the atmosphere and crashed last week, a spokesman for the US Strategic Command told RIA Novosti on Friday.

"US Strategic Command's Joint Functional Component Command for Space [JFCC Space] through the Joint Space Operations Center [JSpOC] assesses with high confidence that Kosmos-2495 re-entered the atmosphere and was removed from the US satellite catalog as a decayed object on September 3," the spokesman said.

The Russian Defense Ministry previously denied media reports of a Russian military satellite allegedly exploding over the territory of the United States.

On September 3, the American Meteor Society published more than 30 reports from alleged eyewitnesses who claimed to observe a big fireball streaking across the sky. The spaceflight101.com website, dedicated to covering spaceflight events with special focus on the technical aspects of space flight, suggested it could have been Kosmos-2495.

Kosmos-2495 was launched on May 6, 2014. It is also known as reconnaissance satellite Kobalt-M, an operational member of the Yantar series of Russian satellites. It weighs 6.6 tons, operates on a low Earth orbit and is equipped with a film camera.

JFCC Space is responsible for integrated space operations in order to support national and military objectives.

JSpOC tracks more than 17,000 objects in space, providing information on space objects and debris to satellite owners and operators.
Best quote heard during an inspection, "I was unaware that I was the only one who was aware."

Offline gwiz

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Further analysis from Ted Molczan:

...I am now confident that the object that re-entered was uncatalogued debris of Cosmos 2495...
http://www.satobs.org/seesat/Sep-2014/0110.html

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Offline Stan Black

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Was the fairing kept attached to the rocket for longer; like they did with Progress M-25M?
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=28784.msg1289645#msg1289645

Offline russianhalo117

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Was the fairing kept attached to the rocket for longer; like they did with Progress M-25M?
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=28784.msg1289645#msg1289645
I believe so as the timings due not match the previous launch, We will see more of this as older heavier fairing and analog rocket versions are retired.
« Last Edit: 11/28/2014 05:21 pm by russianhalo117 »

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