Author Topic: Important announcement by Musk today (25 Apr)  (Read 224695 times)

Offline Jim

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Re: Important announcement by Musk today (25 Apr)
« Reply #360 on: 04/26/2014 01:27 pm »

I'm not trying to wear my tinfoil hat here; I'm simply noting that "budget numbers classified agency reports match single budget number from highly redacted report" isn't really news or proof of much. Would you expect that number to vary?


Not for ELC.  It is generic support and nothing classified that would justify NRO funding.  Any missions specific monies would be under the launch service costs.  The only other cost would be funding the security program

Offline Jim

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Re: Important announcement by Musk today (25 Apr)
« Reply #361 on: 04/26/2014 01:35 pm »
The notion that the earlier Atlas 1- IV or Delta 1-III designs were "evolved" into Atlas V and Delta IV (and therefor could "inherit" their reliability pedigree, so didn't need a test flight to prove their capability) was about as plausible my friend's dog "evolving" into a Lamborghini (well they both have 4 contact points with the ground). 

Wrong and it is a great process to follow. That is how it has always worked.  See the first flight of Titan 34D and Titan IV.   The Atlas is great example of the progression.   No different than V1 to V1.1

Offline Jim

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Re: Important announcement by Musk today (25 Apr)
« Reply #362 on: 04/26/2014 01:37 pm »

If Musk contention Boeing and LM were awarded a lot of launches before even a single LV had taken off that makes the standard Spacex were held to a lot more stringent.

He doesn't have a leg to stand on.  USAF was involve with the EELV development but not F9.  USAF has never bought a COTS launch vehicle.

Offline Jim

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Re: Important announcement by Musk today (25 Apr)
« Reply #363 on: 04/26/2014 01:40 pm »

My memory is telling me that I read something years ago that mentioned that part of the justification for the creation of ULA was to retain jobs for workers formerly employed by NASA who we're getting laid off because of the dramatic slowdown of Shuttle launches. There was more to it than that obviously but that was the gist of it.

I'll try to go thru my library later tonight to see if I can find the reference.

I'm totally aware that I could be completely mistaken on this and if that's the case I apologize in advance.

Ian

No, because ULA had all the workers it needed before the shuttle ended.  They are not related.   You must be confusing it with United Space Alliance (USA) which supported the shuttle.

Offline Jim

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Re: Important announcement by Musk today (25 Apr)
« Reply #364 on: 04/26/2014 01:42 pm »
Of course, ULA wrote the rules that way..

They don't write the rules.

Offline Jim

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Re: Important announcement by Musk today (25 Apr)
« Reply #365 on: 04/26/2014 01:54 pm »

1.  ULA and USA seem to operate from the same facilities.

2.  There's been arguably zero innovations in the either the Atlas or Delta rockets - they've just strapped more solid horsepower on for heavier payloads.

3. The rockets and the processes being used today are likely the exact same as used 18 plus years ago.


1.  Wrong.  They were totally separate companies operating from total separate parts of the country (much less facilities).  There was no movement of people between the companies.  Totally different benefits packages and pay scales.  USA was formed from legacy Rockwell and Lockheed groups and ULA from legacy MDAC, GD and Martin groups.

2.  Wrong, there have been vehicle upgrades and they have be discussed on many threads.

3. A.  EELV's are not that old.
b.  The processes have change since they are combination of legacy Atlas and Delta.

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Important announcement by Musk today (25 Apr)
« Reply #366 on: 04/26/2014 01:58 pm »
Of course, ULA wrote the rules that way..

They don't write the rules.

Yeah they do. You know they do. Don't pretend like there's a rational process going on in the procurement office. It's just dirty tricks to keep the new guy out, like it has been for decades. You've said similar stuff yourself in the past.
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Offline Jim

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Re: Important announcement by Musk today (25 Apr)
« Reply #367 on: 04/26/2014 01:59 pm »

1.  Atlas can't fulfill all DoD mission requirements either but it is in the block buy(except for the triple core Atlas Heavy that is just as much of question mark as FH).

2.  Fact of the matter is that Falcon 9 can do all Atlas 401/501 launches, all Delta II missions, Delta-M launches

3.  and some Delta-M+ launches to certain orbits.

4,  About 2 Atlas launches a year are heavier configurations not doable on Falcon 9(the bulk are 401/501s). So, if Delta launches 5 times a year rather than 3, Falcon 9 + Delta can do all missions(NASA, NRO, USAF).

1.  Because it can do all the missions except for the Heavy,

2, There are no more Delta II missions but in the last 5 of the class than NASA competed, F9 only won one and Delta II won 4. 

3.  Those aren't the orbits required

4.  More than than, anything with a solid, F9 cann't do.

See my thread


Offline Jim

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Re: Important announcement by Musk today (25 Apr)
« Reply #368 on: 04/26/2014 02:04 pm »

ELC isn't the whole thing. When I said that the NRO contribution to EELV should be declassified which you took issue with, I meant the whole thing. Here is my source:

Quote
Another notable item in the NROís request is launch activity, for which the agency requested $1.3 billion in 2013, according to the documents. NRO payloads, like virtually all operational U.S. national security satellites, are launched by United Launch Alliance under the U.S. Air Forceís Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV) program.

http://www.spacenews.com/article/military-space/37021leaked-documents-offer-snapshot-of-nro-activity


The moneys just don't go for launches that occurred. There are progress payments for all missions that currently being worked on.  NASA spreads its launch service costs over 10 payments.
« Last Edit: 04/26/2014 02:04 pm by Jim »

Offline Jim

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Re: Important announcement by Musk today (25 Apr)
« Reply #369 on: 04/26/2014 02:05 pm »

How long payload integration takes depends on the payload.  It's possible that eventually integrating Dragon will take a lot less time than integrating a communications satellite -- particularly if the Dragon isn't carrying any external cargo in a trunk.


the NRO and DOD use a 5 year process

Offline Jim

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Re: Important announcement by Musk today (25 Apr)
« Reply #370 on: 04/26/2014 02:10 pm »
Just to point out.  Before ULA, there still was monopolies in this sector, it was by vehicle performance.

Martin had the heavy lift market cornered with Titan
GD had the intermediate with Atlas
MDAC had the small with Delta

Offline meekGee

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Re: Important announcement by Musk today (25 Apr)
« Reply #371 on: 04/26/2014 02:31 pm »
The notion that the earlier Atlas 1- IV or Delta 1-III designs were "evolved" into Atlas V and Delta IV (and therefor could "inherit" their reliability pedigree, so didn't need a test flight to prove their capability) was about as plausible my friend's dog "evolving" into a Lamborghini (well they both have 4 contact points with the ground).  :(
Was that notion actually brought forward ?!
It is ridiculous at face value, and especially in light of the F9.1 transition...
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Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Re: Important announcement by Musk today (25 Apr)
« Reply #372 on: 04/26/2014 02:34 pm »
Just to point out.  Before ULA, there still was monopolies in this sector, it was by vehicle performance.

Martin had the heavy lift market cornered with Titan
GD had the intermediate with Atlas
MDAC had the small with Delta

I think, Jim, the point is that this is no longer the case and, as a consequence, monopolies are becoming less and less justifiable.
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Offline clongton

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Re: Important announcement by Musk today (25 Apr)
« Reply #373 on: 04/26/2014 03:00 pm »
Let me see if I have this correct:

Elon's contention is not that the F9 had to be certified while the Atlas and Delta did not, but that *after* being certified the F9 was not considered and ULA was sole-sourced to the exclusion of SpaceX. Is that correct? If so he may have a case depending on the timing of the contract award and whether or not it can be demonstrated that the contract award was specifically timed to be completed before SpaceX could certify the F9. That will be a really tough sell because SpaceX will need to demonstrate that there was USAF collusion with ULA specifically to exclude SpaceX from being qualified to bid.
 
Jim is correct about the Air Force being in the weeds with the Atlas and Delta design process. Air Force enginers were at the table for EVERY major design decision and their input was given great weight. As such those 2 launch vehicles would not need the certification flights that SpaceX was asked to do because the Air Force was not involved at all with the development of the Falcon like that. Perhaps it was shortsighted of SpaceX, knowing that they intended to go after DoD launches, to not bring the Air Force into the F9 development process up front. Things may have gone differently if they had. It is always a good idea to have your prospective customer at the table while you work the vehicle you want them to buy.
« Last Edit: 04/26/2014 03:19 pm by clongton »
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Offline JBF

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Re: Important announcement by Musk today (25 Apr)
« Reply #374 on: 04/26/2014 03:04 pm »
I think Sen. McCain has the more valid point. The AF knew months ago that the GPS satellites were lasting longer than anticipated and yet still went ahead saying that there would be 14 competitive bid launches and only cut that at the last minute.
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Offline clongton

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Re: Important announcement by Musk today (25 Apr)
« Reply #375 on: 04/26/2014 03:13 pm »
I think Sen. McCain has the more valid point. The AF knew months ago that the GPS satellites were lasting longer than anticipated and yet still went ahead saying that there would be 14 competitive bid launches and only cut that at the last minute.

That may or may not be a point in SpaceX's favor, depending on whether or not Elon's legal team can demonstrate that that condition was ignored *because* consideration of it would have moved the contract award well past the F9 certification, thus requiring an RFQ and eliminating the sole source option.
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Offline Garrett

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Re: Important announcement by Musk today (25 Apr)
« Reply #376 on: 04/26/2014 03:22 pm »
Perhaps it was shortsighted of SpaceX, knowing that they intended to go after DoD launches, to not bring the Air Force into the F9 development process up front. Things may have gone differently if they had.
For DoD certification, didn't the Air Force get as much info as they wanted from SpaceX. Basically a sort of a posteriori insight into the development process?

It certainly does seem to be a question of timing and what exactly was indicated to SpaceX during their process of certification. Even though the block buy was perfectly legal, SpaceX are upset because they don't think it was right (i.e. morally right, right for taxpayers, etc). This is a protest suit, to publically show that they're pis*ed, and to shed light on what they perceive to be some in the Air Force not been keen on SpaceX's arrival into the EELV program.

I imagine that they expect to lose the suit, but if the Air Force procurement office gets a political slap on the wrist from this, then it will probably be worth it.
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Offline john smith 19

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Re: Important announcement by Musk today (25 Apr)
« Reply #377 on: 04/26/2014 03:30 pm »
2, There are no more Delta II missions but in the last 5 of the class than NASA competed, F9 only won one and Delta II won 4. 
So when a size of rocket exists that perfectly fits the payload is available it won.

IIRC the early Delta's were heavily NASA driven (Delta never existed as an ICBM) and the launch capabilities drove the payload size, not the other way round.

BTW while they have not been heard from in this don't Orbital want to offer "Delta II" size payload capability on Antares?

I  cannot recall if they are also looking at getting into the EELV programme itself (but I  think they are a bit small)  or the more general DoD launch services.
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Offline Prober

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Re: Important announcement by Musk today (25 Apr)
« Reply #378 on: 04/26/2014 03:57 pm »
"SpaceX, performed its final qualifying launch on January 6, 2014  and finished submitting data from that launch to the Air Force two months later."

So that ends that......SpaceX again was too little too late.  The F 1.1 was not qualified when the purchase was made.  Yet other launches are available to bid on.

I don't think you've watched the press conference.. or even read the transcript.. Elon's argument is that they should have waited.

Now you have hit this mess square on.   What Elon and company wants doesn't matter.
 
The Government agencies make the call, they are the customers.

This concept is lost on Spacex.  The company seems to think they are entitled to contracts, and everything revolves around SpaceX interests.   Sorry it just doesn't work that way.

You can see this is clearly defined by the treatment of contracts and schedules.   Having customers wait to allow SpaceX experiments is a horrible way to treat customers.
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Offline JBF

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Re: Important announcement by Musk today (25 Apr)
« Reply #379 on: 04/26/2014 04:02 pm »
Now you have hit this mess square on.   What Elon and company wants doesn't matter.
 
The Government agencies make the call, they are the customers.

This concept is lost on Spacex.  The company seems to think they are entitled to contracts, and everything revolves around SpaceX interests.   Sorry it just doesn't work that way.

You can see this is clearly defined by the treatment of contracts and schedules.   Having customers wait to allow SpaceX experiments is a horrible way to treat customers.

I don't get that at all from what they have said Prober. What SpaceX is saying, as they have said all along, is that they want the process to be competitive bid, not sole source.  And that ULA should fold the maintenance payments into the bid price.
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