Author Topic: Poll: What will the eventual fate of the CRS-3 first stage be? (Read 44487 times)

sojourner · « **Reply #40 on:** 04/25/2014 06:49 pm »

Well, Today's press conference pretty much wraps up this poll.

JBF · « **Reply #41 on:** 04/25/2014 06:59 pm »

And none of the choices match, Sank but recovered floating bits.

Sohl · « **Reply #42 on:** 04/25/2014 09:46 pm »

I'd say "Found floating but damaged. All or part lost trying to recover, or on return journey" matches events the closest. Maybe not "Found" in the sense of direct visual confirmation of a floating stage, but telemetry showed it floated long enough to fall from vertical to horizontal, so they could tell from the data it stayed healthy for several seconds.

Avron · « **Reply #43 on:** 04/25/2014 09:54 pm »

yes we have a winner "Found floating but damaged. All or part lost trying to recover, or on return journey" is close to the outcome

Chris Bergin · « **Reply #44 on:** 04/25/2014 10:21 pm »

Quote from: Avron on 04/25/2014 09:54 pm

yes we have a winner "Found floating but damaged. All or part lost trying to recover, or on return journey" is close to the outcome

OMG! I got it right. What do I win?

rcoppola · « **Reply #45 on:** 04/25/2014 10:24 pm »

Quote from: Chris Bergin on 04/25/2014 10:21 pm

Quote from: Avron on 04/25/2014 09:54 pm
yes we have a winner "Found floating but damaged. All or part lost trying to recover, or on return journey" is close to the outcome

OMG! I got it right. What do I win?

L2 membership for life!

Chris Bergin · « **Reply #46 on:** 04/25/2014 11:18 pm »

Quote from: rcoppola on 04/25/2014 10:24 pm

Quote from: Chris Bergin on 04/25/2014 10:21 pm
Quote from: Avron on 04/25/2014 09:54 pm
yes we have a winner "Found floating but damaged. All or part lost trying to recover, or on return journey" is close to the outcome

OMG! I got it right. What do I win?
L2 membership for life!

Sweet! Always wanted L2 access. First thing I'm doing is downloading a full Shuttle re-entry flight deck video, putting on my flight suit, turning the lights out and play on the big TV and pretend I'm an astronaut!

groundbound · « **Reply #47 on:** 04/25/2014 11:51 pm »

Quote from: Chris Bergin on 04/25/2014 11:18 pm

Sweet! Always wanted L2 access. First thing I'm doing is downloading a full Shuttle re-entry flight deck video, putting on my flight suit, turning the lights out and play on the big TV and pretend I'm an astronaut!

Sorry to be a downer here but I don't think you have time for that: all those sources to ~~badger~~ question and articles to write y'know.

mlindner · « **Reply #48 on:** 04/26/2014 01:19 am »

Quote from: Avron on 04/25/2014 09:54 pm

yes we have a winner "Found floating but damaged. All or part lost trying to recover, or on return journey" is close to the outcome

I think "mostly missing" is not "damaged"... They found a leg, most of the interstage and parts and pieces. It was lost before they even got there. Stage was not found floating.

I voted "Sank before any recovery assets arrived on the scene, located, but nothing recovered" with the intent that there would be pieces as it would be hard to not find pieces. That's what happened last time.

QuantumG · « **Reply #49 on:** 04/26/2014 02:10 am »

It sank.

Remember, they found floating bits and bobs of the Titanic too.

meekGee · « **Reply #50 on:** 04/26/2014 02:14 am »

Quote from: mlindner on 04/26/2014 01:19 am

I think "mostly missing" is not "damaged"... They found a leg, most of the interstage and parts and pieces. It was lost before they even got there. Stage was not found floating.

I voted "Sank before any recovery assets arrived on the scene, located, but nothing recovered" with the intent that there would be pieces as it would be hard to not find pieces. That's what happened last time.

You're right, but you'll be going up against the man, who has his money on #5. Sure you want to do that? I mean, you're a nice guy, Be a shame if something were to... happen...

JBF · « **Reply #51 on:** 04/26/2014 02:24 am »

#4 still has a chance, after all they salvaged Apollo bits 40 years after they went into the ocean.

Astrosurf · « **Reply #52 on:** 04/27/2014 04:07 am »

i find this to be bitter sweet, Its great falcon survived for as long as it did , but it sucks its heavily damaged, I guess id rather see it destroyed then in the hands of the Russians.

hopefully next test they do they put a self destruct sequence to keep it from falling into wrong hands

Lar · « **Reply #53 on:** 04/27/2014 04:33 am »

Clearly I should have had a choice between these but how fine grained do you go?

- Sank but all or part later salvaged from the ocean floor
- Found floating but damaged. All or part lost trying to recover, or on return journey

However I think "Found floating" is closest. And I'm not trying to suck up to the boss.

QuantumG · « **Reply #54 on:** 04/27/2014 04:50 am »

It wasn't found floating any more than the Titanic was.

mlindner · « **Reply #55 on:** 04/27/2014 07:02 am »

Quote from: Lar on 04/27/2014 04:33 am

Clearly I should have had a choice between these but how fine grained do you go?

- Sank but all or part later salvaged from the ocean floor
- Found floating but damaged. All or part lost trying to recover, or on return journey

However I think "Found floating" is closest. And I'm not trying to suck up to the boss.

"Found floating but damaged. All or part lost trying to recover, or on return journey"
Wasn't found floating.
Was completely destroyed.
Recovery wasn't attempted because no ship could reach it in time.

Llian Rhydderch · « **Reply #56 on:** 04/27/2014 12:06 pm »

Quote from: QuantumG on 04/27/2014 04:50 am

It wasn't found floating any more than the Titanic was.

I don't have a dog in this fight, so don't really care how it comes out, and recognize that the poll options don't cover all possible situations...

However, Musk said at the Natl Press Club appearance on the 25th that they have (poor quality) video of the landing. If the F9 booster successfully did the ocean soft landing, and became horizontal in the next 8 seconds or so, and they have (even crappy) video images of that from the aircraft, would that not be "found floating..."?

ugordan · « **Reply #57 on:** 04/27/2014 12:18 pm »

Quote from: Llian Rhydderch on 04/27/2014 12:06 pm

If the F9 booster successfully did the ocean soft landing, and became horizontal in the next 8 seconds or so, and they have (even crappy) video images of that from the aircraft, would that not be "found floating..."?

That's likely footage from the onboard (likely heavily fogged up by that point) downward looking camera, not airplane footage. IOW, telemetry received in real time without having a visual on the stage as it's conceivable the landing zone was clouded over.

Zed_Noir · « **Reply #58 on:** 04/27/2014 01:32 pm »

Quote from: ugordan on 04/27/2014 12:18 pm

Quote from: Llian Rhydderch on 04/27/2014 12:06 pm
If the F9 booster successfully did the ocean soft landing, and became horizontal in the next 8 seconds or so, and they have (even crappy) video images of that from the aircraft, would that not be "found floating..."?

That's likely footage from the onboard (likely heavily fogged up by that point) downward looking camera, not airplane footage. IOW, telemetry received in real time without having a visual on the stage as it's conceivable the landing zone was clouded over.

Could be IR or low light amplified footage from the SpaceX private jet. Which are usually difficult to make out objects but less of an issue with cloud cover with the IR.

Lar · « **Reply #59 on:** 04/27/2014 01:40 pm »

Quote from: QuantumG on 04/27/2014 04:50 am

It wasn't found floating any more than the Titanic was.

I didn't say it fit the outcome perfectly, I said it was the closest fit. If you want to argue that "recovered from the sea bottom" is a closer fit, that's fine. They are both off the mark but in different directions.

Sorry I didn't think of the exact outcome in advance. I still think it was a useful and interesting poll.

One interesting outcome to me was that the two most popular answers

- Sank before any recovery assets arrived on the scene, located, but nothing recovered (31.5%)
- Found floating but damaged, essentially all of stage returned to shore, successful recovery (21.9%)

are wider of the mark by a lot more than the two answers that bracketed it better, but got far less votes

- Sank but all or part later salvaged from the ocean floor (7.9%)
- Found floating but damaged. All or part lost trying to recover, or on return journey (14.4%)

And here I thought I might have put up too many different choices.