Poll: What will the eventual fate of the CRS-3 first stage be?

[Orbiter]

It sounds like she's saying she's seeing parts of the photos, not the rocket. Not a very clear statement, imo.

[Lar]

It sounds like she's saying she's seeing parts of the photos, not the rocket. Not a very clear statement, imo.

Many SpaceX pronouncements tend to be oracular (in the sense of being open to many many many interpretations)

[Jarnis]

It sounds like she's saying she's seeing parts of the photos, not the rocket. Not a very clear statement, imo.

Many SpaceX pronouncements tend to be oracular (in the sense of being open to many many many interpretations)

Sometimes it feels like they are trolling us on purpose with statements that are somewhat vague and open to multiple interpretations... 

If so, I say "well played".

[Space Ghost 1962]

Reading the offered chicken entrails, my take is that they have pics of broken off legs floating (or some such), and that someone viewed a large white cylinder, mentioned it to the CG.

Given the time elapsed, there's been enough time for a) water to accumulate in the tanks and b) a salvage ship to arrive at the wreck.

To salvage you'd need to attach sufficient floatation and tow harness, in addition to safeing the wreck before attempting recovery. You may be too late to float the wreck, either due to not enough floatation, unstable structure, hazardous materials/conditions, inability to make headway against current (to much drag/weight to offset with ship's propulsion). In this case its a hazard so you'd salvage what was safe and scuttle it.

Once you can't remove the water from the tanks your options are limited. And a real nightmare to coax back to shore on the hopes for a placid enough sea to crane it up on a pier or put into a dry dock.

So perhaps a last minute "save" didn't come off?

[mgfitter]

The Besson is currently steaming from Jacksonville towards the area of interest.

http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-77.986/centery:32.6265/zoom:8/mmsi:368766000

While that is the vessel Space-X contracted for the recovery, it might be that it has already been released by Space-X and is now just heading towards its next job further up the East coast

Looking at the wider map, there do appear to be a few other vessels in the general area that might be suitable for recovery ops too. If Besson is still on the job, maybe it isn't working alone?

Might be worth watching this track over the next few hours.

-MG.

[Barrie]

No destination given, suggesting it is on the way to an operation rather than a port.

[brokndodge]

Any idea of the other vessels involved in locating the debris?  Perhaps they can be located using the same tool?

[pagheca]

However, I'm a bit surprised by this. I would like to know if someone has a simple explanation at what happened.

The area where the stage was going to splashdown is quite small, a few hours of navigation wide. A couple of off-the-shelf radiobeacons (one of those used by civil aviation) would be able to accurately locate the stage in the water. Despite the bad sea, a tug would have been able to be in the area in a matter of hours with proper planification.

I assume they are not at all stupid at SpaceX. So, what am I missing here to explain the complication and the delay in locating the stage, bringing it back, etc.?

I've been thinking about and my only explanation is that SpaceX (1) actually recovered the stage long ago, as expected, or (2) they know it sunk, or (3) got destroyed in a few hours.

(1) would be a smart move, as this would distract the attention by media on what is going on. But I guess that hiding a rocket on board one of the few available ships in the area is not that simple. (2) is unlikely. They don't like to create too much expectation. If they knew it sunk, they wouldn't say anything different (3) as for prev point.

Any suggestion to let me understand?

[mgfitter]

The USAV Bristoe Station looks to be the most likely -- assuming any partner vessels at all!

She's on a similar track, but ahead of the Besson -- close to the SC/NC line, which is right where the stage was supposed to come down.

http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-77.97617/centery:32.63367/zoom:8/mmsi:368766000

-MG

[rst]

I assume they are not at all stupid at SpaceX. So, what am I missing here to explain the complication and the delay in locating the stage, bringing it back, etc.?

My understanding (from comments elsewhere here) is that the originally contracted salvage fleet couldn't make it out, due to the heavy seas, and it took time for the replacement vessels (Besson, etc.) to get out there --- which may have been time enough for the stage to drift away from the initial splashdown site.  (Particularly if the Gulf Stream is involved, as noted below.)

Heavy seas would also be likely to complicate attempts to secure the stage once it was located.

That may not be the whole story, but it's probably a very large piece of it.

[leetdan]

The USAV Bristoe Station looks to be the most likely -- assuming any partner vessels at all!

She's on a similar track, but ahead of the Besson -- close to the SC/NC line, which is right where the stage was supposed to come down.

http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-77.97617/centery:32.63367/zoom:8/mmsi:368766000

-MG

"Where the stage was supposed to come down" means little at this point, debris can drift upwards of 100 miles per day in the Gulf Stream.

[bunker9603]

Any idea on what the wind conditions were like at the projected landing area? Were the high seas directly related to high winds? If so it's pretty impressive the stage was apparently stable enough to transmit data for 8 seconds after hitting the water.

[pagheca]

My understanding (from comments elsewhere here) is that the originally contracted salvage fleet couldn't make it out, due to the heavy seas

Thanks.

I'm not an expert, but I travelled several times by commercial ships in VERY heavy seas (30 ft. waves and more). I can't believe a 3 mt. sea waves can stop ships of that size from venturing out an harbour for such an expensive, important business.

[Llian Rhydderch]

My understanding (from comments elsewhere here) is that the originally contracted salvage fleet couldn't make it out, due to the heavy seas

Thanks.

I'm not an expert, but I travelled several time by commercial ships in VERY heavy seas (30 ft. waves and more). I can' believe a 3 mt. sea waves can stop a ship of that size from venturing out an harbour for such an expensive, important business.

I can.  Take a look at the photos of the Besson.  It may be able to run in such seas, but it's likely NOT going to get it's rear ramp down and semi-submerge in such seas. 

If a Navy guy or Ocean Architect is reading this thread, then they could set us both straight. 

[pagheca]

I can.  Take a look at the photos of the Besson.  It may be able to run in such seas, but it's likely NOT going to get it's rear ramp down and semi-submerge in such seas. 

Let's figure out the situation: a rocket come down under controlled re-entry for the very first time.  You need to know it's position, check its conditions after landing, take pictures, before it sink or is taken apart by the waves.

Even if you couldn't recover it, wouldn't you make everything you can to get your boat in sight of it as soon as possible?

[Llian Rhydderch]

I can.  Take a look at the photos of the Besson.  It may be able to run in such seas, but it's likely NOT going to get it's rear ramp down and semi-submerge in such seas. 

Let's figure out the situation: a rocket come down under controlled re-entry for the very first time.  You need to know it's position, check its conditions after landing, take pictures, before it sink or is taken apart by the waves.

Even if you couldn't recover it, wouldn't you make everything you can to get your boat in sight of it as soon as possible?

Apparently not.

At least not if your boat is the US Army's Besson-class LSV.  From what Chris said earlier, they decided to call it off and not go out there, even though they had apparently been contracted by SpaceX to do so; the rationale given was the sea state.

So the best theory I've seen is that it took a day or two (inertia, and just plain hard work) to get a US Navy vessel of some sort under contract to go out there.  Details are unclear.

We've not seen much to tell us if SpaceX/USAF/USCG/etc., or even general aviation pilots might have been dispatched to take photos of the (floating?) stage from the air.

As has been said:  time will tell.

[Halidon]

I can.  Take a look at the photos of the Besson.  It may be able to run in such seas, but it's likely NOT going to get it's rear ramp down and semi-submerge in such seas. 

Let's figure out the situation: a rocket come down under controlled re-entry for the very first time.  You need to know it's position, check its conditions after landing, take pictures, before it sink or is taken apart by the waves.

Even if you couldn't recover it, wouldn't you make everything you can to get your boat in sight of it as soon as possible?

No. 3 meter waves is Sea State 5, nothing to be sneezed at. You don't just hang out in rough seas in an LSV for an indefinite period of time. Add in the potential for the stage to collide with the Besson as it tries to keep close and it just doesn't make sense to risk it for a piece of hardware.

[eriblo]

[...]

We've not seen much to tell us if SpaceX/USAF/USCG/etc., or even general aviation pilots might have been dispatched to take photos of the (floating?) stage from the air.

They have photos (as stated by Shotwell), but they might just be ones taken by their own plane in the half hour or so it spent in the area after splashdown and exactly what they show is unclear...

[jeff.findley]

Let's figure out the situation: a rocket come down under controlled re-entry for the very first time.  You need to know it's position, check its conditions after landing, take pictures, before it sink or is taken apart by the waves.

Even if you couldn't recover it, wouldn't you make everything you can to get your boat in sight of it as soon as possible?

Apparently not.

At least not if your boat is the US Army's Besson-class LSV.  From what Chris said earlier, they decided to call it off and not go out there, even though they had apparently been contracted by SpaceX to do so; the rationale given was the sea state.

So the best theory I've seen is that it took a day or two (inertia, and just plain hard work) to get a US Navy vessel of some sort under contract to go out there.  Details are unclear.

We've not seen much to tell us if SpaceX/USAF/USCG/etc., or even general aviation pilots might have been dispatched to take photos of the (floating?) stage from the air.

As has been said:  time will tell.

This situation just illustrates why "splashdowns" in the ocean should not be the preferred way of recovering spacecraft and spent stages.  Even if you can wait for weather to clear, this sort of thing starts to put constraints on recovery which can lead to launch and recovery delays.

[prime8]

Notice that the coast guard had a warning out about the stage. I've only done a small amount of open ocean sailing, but when you're out there and you hear about something in the water, you do everything you can to avoid that hazard. You don't head straight for it. With that size waves combined with the fact that even if intact the stage could easily be floating low in the water, it could be surprisingly difficult to see. It was also getting dark not long after the landing was confirmed by Elon.

It is just bad seamanship to head out into a situation that is potentially hazardous and not well understood. Every captain is trained to avoid that. There is a reason why the captain is given ultimate authority over the ship, no matter how much external pressure there is. Life must have the highest priority and since there was no life at risk out there, there was no reason for the captain to risk the life of his crew. When you have captains deciding to set sail without fully understanding the risks they are taking, you get the HMS Bounty, the Maersk Alabama, and the ferry in South Korea this week.