Author Topic: Poll: What will the eventual fate of the CRS-3 first stage be? (Read 44488 times)

Lar · « **on:** 04/21/2014 04:44 pm »

Standalone poll thread... Poll closes in 48 hours or when news announced if sooner.

Please keep discussion serious, quips will be removed... the quips caused deletion of this poll before.

We had 200+ votes on the previous poll and the trends were interesting.

RDMM2081 · « **Reply #1 on:** 04/21/2014 04:57 pm »

I've been drooling with anticipation of any word from SpaceX about the fate of the stage, and I've come to a personal conclusion that they will wait until at least Tuesday to release any information about it. If for no other reason than to bask in the positive press of a successful launch, rendezvous and berthing before adding more positive press about recovering the stage (Can you guess how I voted?

)

Lurker Steve · « **Reply #2 on:** 04/21/2014 05:36 pm »

I believe Mr. Musk may have to contact Jeff Bezos if he wants that stage recovered. Perhaps they can use the same vessel that recovered the F1 engines from Apollo.

Elvis in Space · « **Reply #3 on:** 04/21/2014 05:44 pm »

There's no need to go to all the trouble and expense of a deep water search and recovery when they know it worked and they are going to fly more. Whatever might remain floating around, and I doubt that is much, might be picked up but we're not going to see it before Elon does.

Jarnis · « **Reply #4 on:** 04/21/2014 06:19 pm »

The main reason they even have to go there is because it is possible that something is floating and if so, it would be hazard to shipping if it was left there. As a bonus, they might get some hardware back for analysis.

The real deal is when one comes to landing on land...

Ronpur50 · « **Reply #5 on:** 04/21/2014 06:45 pm »

I don't think they will find it, or are even looking for it. Do they need to? It can't fly again and they got the data they needed from this test. Why waste resources looking for it?

meadows.st · « **Reply #6 on:** 04/21/2014 06:48 pm »

Given that the stage took roughly 8 seconds to "fall over" then I believe that the tipping mechanism was likely similar (at least in terms of tip speed) to my model see: http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=34065.msg1186146#msg1186146
so I think that the stage likely stayed intact until it contacted the water. What I don't know is how severe the swell was in the area and what forces those waves would have on a thin pressurized tube with large "sails" (two of the legs). I have not yet done any calculations on what forces these waves might have on the stage once horizontal but from the original model, it was pretty clear that the stage would be floating much like a soda can (virtually on top of the water while only submerged about 60-80cm at the engines).

As I have proven, my intuition is not to be trusted (I think waves >15ft/5m would cause bending forces that would buckle and rupture the tanks but until I model it, I really don't know and I have shown that I do not have a great understanding of how light and buoyant the vessel really is) but I have voted for damaged but still floating and can/will be recovered for study.

Keeping my fingers crossed...!

PahTo · « **Reply #7 on:** 04/21/2014 07:24 pm »

I say it is a combination of "sank before any recovery assets arrived" and "sank but some or all will be salvaged" (my actual vote) because of the NBC report about the Russian ship closely tracking the launch (and I expect the landing of the first stage). Because of this, SpaceX is compelled to attempt a recovery (if they don't already have it). If SpaceX doesn't attempt a recovery/salvage, someone will...

uhuznaa · « **Reply #8 on:** 04/21/2014 07:44 pm »

Well, I think someone will try to recover the stage and SpaceX will think so too, so they will try to recover it. Having all your trade secrets laying on the floor of the ocean somewhere is something that will nag on your mind too much to be comfortable.

It's hard to predict the fate of the stage with waves and whatnot, but I'm fairly sure this depends on the tanks remaining pressurized or not. Unpressurized the walls will buckle and then rupture and the stage will sink sooner or later. Maybe the shorter tank will hold out longer and with the stage being more vertical the bending forces will be lower... But once both tanks are damaged, this thing will go down like a stone.

Elmar Moelzer · « **Reply #9 on:** 04/21/2014 07:49 pm »

Seeing how hard it is to find an airplane, I have my doubts that finding and salvaging the stage without a major operation would be that easy, if it has indeed sunk (as I believe). I believe the Russian ship was too far away to get an exact landing position. Recovery from 2500 meters deep ocean is not that easy either. All that would probably attract a lot of attention.

ugordan · « **Reply #10 on:** 04/21/2014 08:00 pm »

Quote from: Elmar Moelzer on 04/21/2014 07:49 pm

Seeing how hard it is to find an airplane, I have my doubts that finding and salvaging the stage without a major operation would be that easy, if it has indeed sunk (as I believe).

The difference here being that SpaceX probably has GPS coordinates of the touchdown point if that sort of thing was relayed over telemetry (heck, even from range safety tracking radar before it went below horizon). Assuming it didn't drift on the surface for too long before sinking, that would significantly constrain the search area vs. a lost plane.

Not that I think they're actually going to attempt recovery from an ocean bottom. It would probably be easier to just wait for another stage to land in more favorable conditions. The next launch, for example.

Elmar Moelzer · « **Reply #11 on:** 04/21/2014 08:03 pm »

Quote from: ugordan on 04/21/2014 08:00 pm

The difference here being that SpaceX probably has GPS coordinates of the touchdown point if that sort of thing was relayed over telemetry (heck, even from range safety tracking radar before it went below horizon). Assuming it didn't drift on the surface for too long before sinking, that would significantly constrain the search area vs. a lost plane.

Not that I think they're actually going to attempt recovery from an ocean bottom. It would probably be easier to just wait for another stage to land in more favorable conditions. The next launch, for example.

Yes SpaceX does. I was referring to secret salvaging attempts by competitors.

ugordan · « **Reply #12 on:** 04/21/2014 08:07 pm »

Quote from: Elmar Moelzer on 04/21/2014 08:03 pm

I was referring to secret salvaging attempts by competitors.

Oh. That'll teach me to not pay more attention to the context of a post...

Lurker Steve · « **Reply #13 on:** 04/21/2014 08:59 pm »

Quote from: sghill on 04/21/2014 07:17 pm

That on-board autonomous landing software would be a rich prize to any foreign space-faring government with the undersea capabilities to go retrieve it. The Cassiope mission's booster avionics package has probably already been recovered...

It costs more to recover something from the bottom of the ocean than it does to re-develop the software package, especially a piece of software that is still in "alpha" or "beta" state, and not written specifically for your target package. It's not like they launched commented source code onboard the booster.

Space Ghost 1962 · « **Reply #14 on:** 04/21/2014 09:26 pm »

Depends on many things.

1. How was the stage passivated on landing (before it fell over). In particular valves affecting buoyancy and potential for shrapnel from a not despun turbine abruptly being dumped in water.
2. Shorts in the electrical creating high current drains rupturing tanks.
3. Rupture due to topple/wave action.

Absent those cases, expect that slow leaks water-log the stage, and the legs act as sails turning it into the wind, thus the bow (top) faces the waves. Hydrostatically stable. It'll sink slowly, and when buffeted by the waves, the lever arm of the engines will bob it's top when heavy swells thrash, possibly partially erecting the stage...

If there was any open valves or impact damage shearing, it's already on the ocean floor by now. But with something of that size, a radar reflection from a search/rescue aircraft system (or better) ought to tell if its there or not prior to any salvage operations.

Lar · « **Reply #15 on:** 04/21/2014 11:20 pm »

What value some putative third party might or might not derive from salvaging this stage is off topic.

So is reverse compiling and whether object code includes comments or not.

Some bathwater may have been thrown out with baby...

NovaSilisko · « **Reply #16 on:** 04/22/2014 12:38 am »

From QuantumG's link put up in the party thread (it deserves better than that!)... http://www.spaceflightinsider.com/space-flight-missions/commercial-space-space-flight-missions/spacex/crs-3/spacex-president-shotwell-talks-recovery-efforts-recent-ribbon-cutting-ceremony/

Quote

Johnson: Have you found it yet?

Shotwell: “Yes, we’ve found it.”

Johnson: Can you tell us what you found?

Shotwell: Not at this time, I haven’t seen all the photos. We’ve seen parts (laughs)!”

Johnson: Is there going to be video or photos released?

Shotwell: “I think we have some video. We didn’t have any real-time telemetry and video, so I haven’t seen it yet, I haven’t been back in the office.”

Lar · « **Reply #17 on:** 04/22/2014 01:04 pm »

Kept the discussion locked for a while to cut down on the off topic stuff...

So those who voted sank before assets arrived (the largest vote this time, different than the first version of the poll, which in itself was surprising to me) may apparently have been incorrect.

I'm not closing the voting yet but with the announcements, it sounds like more info will be revealed soon.

pagheca · « **Reply #18 on:** 04/22/2014 01:23 pm »

Wouldn't be nice to open a separate thread to discuss the actual recovery operations, and for questions concerning the reentry of the first stage for this mission only?

Mongo62 · « **Reply #19 on:** 04/22/2014 01:27 pm »

It does seem odd that posts concerning this historic event are scattered across half a dozen threads.

Orbiter · « **Reply #20 on:** 04/22/2014 05:17 pm »

It sounds like she's saying she's seeing parts of the photos, not the rocket. Not a very clear statement, imo.

Lar · « **Reply #21 on:** 04/22/2014 05:46 pm »

Quote from: Orbiter on 04/22/2014 05:17 pm

It sounds like she's saying she's seeing parts of the photos, not the rocket. Not a very clear statement, imo.

Many SpaceX pronouncements tend to be oracular (in the sense of being open to many many many interpretations)

Jarnis · « **Reply #22 on:** 04/22/2014 05:53 pm »

Quote from: Lar on 04/22/2014 05:46 pm

Quote from: Orbiter on 04/22/2014 05:17 pm
It sounds like she's saying she's seeing parts of the photos, not the rocket. Not a very clear statement, imo.

Many SpaceX pronouncements tend to be oracular (in the sense of being open to many many many interpretations)

Sometimes it feels like they are trolling us on purpose with statements that are somewhat vague and open to multiple interpretations...

If so, I say "well played".

Space Ghost 1962 · « **Reply #23 on:** 04/22/2014 06:37 pm »

Reading the offered chicken entrails, my take is that they have pics of broken off legs floating (or some such), and that someone viewed a large white cylinder, mentioned it to the CG.

Given the time elapsed, there's been enough time for a) water to accumulate in the tanks and b) a salvage ship to arrive at the wreck.

To salvage you'd need to attach sufficient floatation and tow harness, in addition to safeing the wreck before attempting recovery. You may be too late to float the wreck, either due to not enough floatation, unstable structure, hazardous materials/conditions, inability to make headway against current (to much drag/weight to offset with ship's propulsion). In this case its a hazard so you'd salvage what was safe and scuttle it.

Once you can't remove the water from the tanks your options are limited. And a real nightmare to coax back to shore on the hopes for a placid enough sea to crane it up on a pier or put into a dry dock.

So perhaps a last minute "save" didn't come off?

mgfitter · « **Reply #24 on:** 04/22/2014 09:15 pm »

The Besson is currently steaming from Jacksonville towards the area of interest.

http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-77.986/centery:32.6265/zoom:8/mmsi:368766000

While that is the vessel Space-X contracted for the recovery, it might be that it has already been released by Space-X and is now just heading towards its next job further up the East coast

Looking at the wider map, there do appear to be a few other vessels in the general area that might be suitable for recovery ops too. If Besson is still on the job, maybe it isn't working alone?

Might be worth watching this track over the next few hours.

-MG.

Barrie · « **Reply #25 on:** 04/22/2014 09:30 pm »

No destination given, suggesting it is on the way to an operation rather than a port.

brokndodge · « **Reply #26 on:** 04/22/2014 09:33 pm »

Any idea of the other vessels involved in locating the debris? Perhaps they can be located using the same tool?

pagheca · « **Reply #27 on:** 04/22/2014 10:05 pm »

However, I'm a bit surprised by this. I would like to know if someone has a simple explanation at what happened.

The area where the stage was going to splashdown is quite small, a few hours of navigation wide. A couple of off-the-shelf radiobeacons (one of those used by civil aviation) would be able to accurately locate the stage in the water. Despite the bad sea, a tug would have been able to be in the area in a matter of hours with proper planification.

I assume they are not at all stupid at SpaceX. So, what am I missing here to explain the complication and the delay in locating the stage, bringing it back, etc.?

I've been thinking about and my only explanation is that SpaceX (1) actually recovered the stage long ago, as expected, or (2) they know it sunk, or (3) got destroyed in a few hours.

(1) would be a smart move, as this would distract the attention by media on what is going on. But I guess that hiding a rocket on board one of the few available ships in the area is not that simple. (2) is unlikely. They don't like to create too much expectation. If they knew it sunk, they wouldn't say anything different (3) as for prev point.

Any suggestion to let me understand?

mgfitter · « **Reply #28 on:** 04/22/2014 10:10 pm »

The USAV Bristoe Station looks to be the most likely -- assuming any partner vessels at all!

She's on a similar track, but ahead of the Besson -- close to the SC/NC line, which is right where the stage was supposed to come down.

http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-77.97617/centery:32.63367/zoom:8/mmsi:368766000

-MG

rst · « **Reply #29 on:** 04/22/2014 10:16 pm »

Quote from: pagheca on 04/22/2014 10:05 pm

I assume they are not at all stupid at SpaceX. So, what am I missing here to explain the complication and the delay in locating the stage, bringing it back, etc.?

My understanding (from comments elsewhere here) is that the originally contracted salvage fleet couldn't make it out, due to the heavy seas, and it took time for the replacement vessels (Besson, etc.) to get out there --- which may have been time enough for the stage to drift away from the initial splashdown site. (Particularly if the Gulf Stream is involved, as noted below.)

Heavy seas would also be likely to complicate attempts to secure the stage once it was located.

That may not be the whole story, but it's probably a very large piece of it.

leetdan · « **Reply #30 on:** 04/22/2014 10:18 pm »

Quote from: mgfitter on 04/22/2014 10:10 pm

The USAV Bristoe Station looks to be the most likely -- assuming any partner vessels at all!

She's on a similar track, but ahead of the Besson -- close to the SC/NC line, which is right where the stage was supposed to come down.

http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-77.97617/centery:32.63367/zoom:8/mmsi:368766000

-MG

"Where the stage was supposed to come down" means little at this point, debris can drift upwards of 100 miles per day in the Gulf Stream.

bunker9603 · « **Reply #31 on:** 04/23/2014 12:57 am »

Any idea on what the wind conditions were like at the projected landing area? Were the high seas directly related to high winds? If so it's pretty impressive the stage was apparently stable enough to transmit data for 8 seconds after hitting the water.

pagheca · « **Reply #32 on:** 04/23/2014 03:26 am »

Quote from: rst on 04/22/2014 10:16 pm

My understanding (from comments elsewhere here) is that the originally contracted salvage fleet couldn't make it out, due to the heavy seas

Thanks.

I'm not an expert, but I travelled several times by commercial ships in VERY heavy seas (30 ft. waves and more). I can't believe a 3 mt. sea waves can stop ships of that size from venturing out an harbour for such an expensive, important business.

Llian Rhydderch · « **Reply #33 on:** 04/23/2014 03:31 am »

Quote from: pagheca on 04/23/2014 03:26 am

Quote from: rst on 04/22/2014 10:16 pm
My understanding (from comments elsewhere here) is that the originally contracted salvage fleet couldn't make it out, due to the heavy seas

Thanks.

I'm not an expert, but I travelled several time by commercial ships in VERY heavy seas (30 ft. waves and more). I can' believe a 3 mt. sea waves can stop a ship of that size from venturing out an harbour for such an expensive, important business.

I can. Take a look at the photos of the Besson. It may be able to run in such seas, but it's likely NOT going to get it's rear ramp down and semi-submerge in such seas.

If a Navy guy or Ocean Architect is reading this thread, then they could set us both straight.

pagheca · « **Reply #34 on:** 04/23/2014 03:40 am »

Quote from: Llian Rhydderch on 04/23/2014 03:31 am

I can. Take a look at the photos of the Besson. It may be able to run in such seas, but it's likely NOT going to get it's rear ramp down and semi-submerge in such seas.

Let's figure out the situation: a rocket come down under controlled re-entry for the very first time. You need to know it's position, check its conditions after landing, take pictures, before it sink or is taken apart by the waves.

Even if you couldn't recover it, wouldn't you make everything you can to get your boat in sight of it as soon as possible?

Llian Rhydderch · « **Reply #35 on:** 04/23/2014 04:46 am »

Quote from: pagheca on 04/23/2014 03:40 am

Quote from: Llian Rhydderch on 04/23/2014 03:31 am
I can. Take a look at the photos of the Besson. It may be able to run in such seas, but it's likely NOT going to get it's rear ramp down and semi-submerge in such seas.

Let's figure out the situation: a rocket come down under controlled re-entry for the very first time. You need to know it's position, check its conditions after landing, take pictures, before it sink or is taken apart by the waves.

Even if you couldn't recover it, wouldn't you make everything you can to get your boat in sight of it as soon as possible?

Apparently not.

At least not if your boat is the US Army's Besson-class LSV. From what Chris said earlier, they decided to call it off and not go out there, even though they had apparently been contracted by SpaceX to do so; the rationale given was the sea state.

So the best theory I've seen is that it took a day or two (inertia, and just plain hard work) to get a US Navy vessel of some sort under contract to go out there. Details are unclear.

We've not seen much to tell us if SpaceX/USAF/USCG/etc., or even general aviation pilots might have been dispatched to take photos of the (floating?) stage from the air.

As has been said: time will tell.

Halidon · « **Reply #36 on:** 04/23/2014 04:48 am »

Quote from: pagheca on 04/23/2014 03:40 am

Quote from: Llian Rhydderch on 04/23/2014 03:31 am
I can. Take a look at the photos of the Besson. It may be able to run in such seas, but it's likely NOT going to get it's rear ramp down and semi-submerge in such seas.

Let's figure out the situation: a rocket come down under controlled re-entry for the very first time. You need to know it's position, check its conditions after landing, take pictures, before it sink or is taken apart by the waves.

Even if you couldn't recover it, wouldn't you make everything you can to get your boat in sight of it as soon as possible?

No. 3 meter waves is Sea State 5, nothing to be sneezed at. You don't just hang out in rough seas in an LSV for an indefinite period of time. Add in the potential for the stage to collide with the Besson as it tries to keep close and it just doesn't make sense to risk it for a piece of hardware.

eriblo · « **Reply #37 on:** 04/23/2014 08:06 am »

Quote from: Llian Rhydderch on 04/23/2014 04:46 am

[...]

We've not seen much to tell us if SpaceX/USAF/USCG/etc., or even general aviation pilots might have been dispatched to take photos of the (floating?) stage from the air.

They have photos (as stated by Shotwell), but they might just be ones taken by their own plane in the half hour or so it spent in the area after splashdown and exactly what they show is unclear...

jeff.findley · « **Reply #38 on:** 04/23/2014 12:09 pm »

Quote from: Llian Rhydderch on 04/23/2014 04:46 am

Quote from: pagheca on 04/23/2014 03:40 am
Let's figure out the situation: a rocket come down under controlled re-entry for the very first time. You need to know it's position, check its conditions after landing, take pictures, before it sink or is taken apart by the waves.

Even if you couldn't recover it, wouldn't you make everything you can to get your boat in sight of it as soon as possible?

Apparently not.

At least not if your boat is the US Army's Besson-class LSV. From what Chris said earlier, they decided to call it off and not go out there, even though they had apparently been contracted by SpaceX to do so; the rationale given was the sea state.

So the best theory I've seen is that it took a day or two (inertia, and just plain hard work) to get a US Navy vessel of some sort under contract to go out there. Details are unclear.

We've not seen much to tell us if SpaceX/USAF/USCG/etc., or even general aviation pilots might have been dispatched to take photos of the (floating?) stage from the air.

As has been said: time will tell.

This situation just illustrates why "splashdowns" in the ocean should not be the preferred way of recovering spacecraft and spent stages. Even if you can wait for weather to clear, this sort of thing starts to put constraints on recovery which can lead to launch and recovery delays.

prime8 · « **Reply #39 on:** 04/24/2014 06:03 pm »

Notice that the coast guard had a warning out about the stage. I've only done a small amount of open ocean sailing, but when you're out there and you hear about something in the water, you do everything you can to avoid that hazard. You don't head straight for it. With that size waves combined with the fact that even if intact the stage could easily be floating low in the water, it could be surprisingly difficult to see. It was also getting dark not long after the landing was confirmed by Elon.

It is just bad seamanship to head out into a situation that is potentially hazardous and not well understood. Every captain is trained to avoid that. There is a reason why the captain is given ultimate authority over the ship, no matter how much external pressure there is. Life must have the highest priority and since there was no life at risk out there, there was no reason for the captain to risk the life of his crew. When you have captains deciding to set sail without fully understanding the risks they are taking, you get the HMS Bounty, the Maersk Alabama, and the ferry in South Korea this week.

sojourner · « **Reply #40 on:** 04/25/2014 06:49 pm »

Well, Today's press conference pretty much wraps up this poll.

JBF · « **Reply #41 on:** 04/25/2014 06:59 pm »

And none of the choices match, Sank but recovered floating bits.

Sohl · « **Reply #42 on:** 04/25/2014 09:46 pm »

I'd say "Found floating but damaged. All or part lost trying to recover, or on return journey" matches events the closest. Maybe not "Found" in the sense of direct visual confirmation of a floating stage, but telemetry showed it floated long enough to fall from vertical to horizontal, so they could tell from the data it stayed healthy for several seconds.

Avron · « **Reply #43 on:** 04/25/2014 09:54 pm »

yes we have a winner "Found floating but damaged. All or part lost trying to recover, or on return journey" is close to the outcome

Chris Bergin · « **Reply #44 on:** 04/25/2014 10:21 pm »

Quote from: Avron on 04/25/2014 09:54 pm

yes we have a winner "Found floating but damaged. All or part lost trying to recover, or on return journey" is close to the outcome

OMG! I got it right. What do I win?

rcoppola · « **Reply #45 on:** 04/25/2014 10:24 pm »

Quote from: Chris Bergin on 04/25/2014 10:21 pm

Quote from: Avron on 04/25/2014 09:54 pm
yes we have a winner "Found floating but damaged. All or part lost trying to recover, or on return journey" is close to the outcome

OMG! I got it right. What do I win?

L2 membership for life!

Chris Bergin · « **Reply #46 on:** 04/25/2014 11:18 pm »

Quote from: rcoppola on 04/25/2014 10:24 pm

Quote from: Chris Bergin on 04/25/2014 10:21 pm
Quote from: Avron on 04/25/2014 09:54 pm
yes we have a winner "Found floating but damaged. All or part lost trying to recover, or on return journey" is close to the outcome

OMG! I got it right. What do I win?
L2 membership for life!

Sweet! Always wanted L2 access. First thing I'm doing is downloading a full Shuttle re-entry flight deck video, putting on my flight suit, turning the lights out and play on the big TV and pretend I'm an astronaut!

groundbound · « **Reply #47 on:** 04/25/2014 11:51 pm »

Quote from: Chris Bergin on 04/25/2014 11:18 pm

Sweet! Always wanted L2 access. First thing I'm doing is downloading a full Shuttle re-entry flight deck video, putting on my flight suit, turning the lights out and play on the big TV and pretend I'm an astronaut!

Sorry to be a downer here but I don't think you have time for that: all those sources to ~~badger~~ question and articles to write y'know.

mlindner · « **Reply #48 on:** 04/26/2014 01:19 am »

Quote from: Avron on 04/25/2014 09:54 pm

yes we have a winner "Found floating but damaged. All or part lost trying to recover, or on return journey" is close to the outcome

I think "mostly missing" is not "damaged"... They found a leg, most of the interstage and parts and pieces. It was lost before they even got there. Stage was not found floating.

I voted "Sank before any recovery assets arrived on the scene, located, but nothing recovered" with the intent that there would be pieces as it would be hard to not find pieces. That's what happened last time.

QuantumG · « **Reply #49 on:** 04/26/2014 02:10 am »

It sank.

Remember, they found floating bits and bobs of the Titanic too.

meekGee · « **Reply #50 on:** 04/26/2014 02:14 am »

Quote from: mlindner on 04/26/2014 01:19 am

I think "mostly missing" is not "damaged"... They found a leg, most of the interstage and parts and pieces. It was lost before they even got there. Stage was not found floating.

I voted "Sank before any recovery assets arrived on the scene, located, but nothing recovered" with the intent that there would be pieces as it would be hard to not find pieces. That's what happened last time.

You're right, but you'll be going up against the man, who has his money on #5. Sure you want to do that? I mean, you're a nice guy, Be a shame if something were to... happen...

JBF · « **Reply #51 on:** 04/26/2014 02:24 am »

#4 still has a chance, after all they salvaged Apollo bits 40 years after they went into the ocean.

Astrosurf · « **Reply #52 on:** 04/27/2014 04:07 am »

i find this to be bitter sweet, Its great falcon survived for as long as it did , but it sucks its heavily damaged, I guess id rather see it destroyed then in the hands of the Russians.

hopefully next test they do they put a self destruct sequence to keep it from falling into wrong hands

Lar · « **Reply #53 on:** 04/27/2014 04:33 am »

Clearly I should have had a choice between these but how fine grained do you go?

- Sank but all or part later salvaged from the ocean floor
- Found floating but damaged. All or part lost trying to recover, or on return journey

However I think "Found floating" is closest. And I'm not trying to suck up to the boss.

QuantumG · « **Reply #54 on:** 04/27/2014 04:50 am »

It wasn't found floating any more than the Titanic was.

mlindner · « **Reply #55 on:** 04/27/2014 07:02 am »

Quote from: Lar on 04/27/2014 04:33 am

Clearly I should have had a choice between these but how fine grained do you go?

- Sank but all or part later salvaged from the ocean floor
- Found floating but damaged. All or part lost trying to recover, or on return journey

However I think "Found floating" is closest. And I'm not trying to suck up to the boss.

"Found floating but damaged. All or part lost trying to recover, or on return journey"
Wasn't found floating.
Was completely destroyed.
Recovery wasn't attempted because no ship could reach it in time.

Llian Rhydderch · « **Reply #56 on:** 04/27/2014 12:06 pm »

Quote from: QuantumG on 04/27/2014 04:50 am

It wasn't found floating any more than the Titanic was.

I don't have a dog in this fight, so don't really care how it comes out, and recognize that the poll options don't cover all possible situations...

However, Musk said at the Natl Press Club appearance on the 25th that they have (poor quality) video of the landing. If the F9 booster successfully did the ocean soft landing, and became horizontal in the next 8 seconds or so, and they have (even crappy) video images of that from the aircraft, would that not be "found floating..."?

ugordan · « **Reply #57 on:** 04/27/2014 12:18 pm »

Quote from: Llian Rhydderch on 04/27/2014 12:06 pm

If the F9 booster successfully did the ocean soft landing, and became horizontal in the next 8 seconds or so, and they have (even crappy) video images of that from the aircraft, would that not be "found floating..."?

That's likely footage from the onboard (likely heavily fogged up by that point) downward looking camera, not airplane footage. IOW, telemetry received in real time without having a visual on the stage as it's conceivable the landing zone was clouded over.

Zed_Noir · « **Reply #58 on:** 04/27/2014 01:32 pm »

Quote from: ugordan on 04/27/2014 12:18 pm

Quote from: Llian Rhydderch on 04/27/2014 12:06 pm
If the F9 booster successfully did the ocean soft landing, and became horizontal in the next 8 seconds or so, and they have (even crappy) video images of that from the aircraft, would that not be "found floating..."?

That's likely footage from the onboard (likely heavily fogged up by that point) downward looking camera, not airplane footage. IOW, telemetry received in real time without having a visual on the stage as it's conceivable the landing zone was clouded over.

Could be IR or low light amplified footage from the SpaceX private jet. Which are usually difficult to make out objects but less of an issue with cloud cover with the IR.

Lar · « **Reply #59 on:** 04/27/2014 01:40 pm »

Quote from: QuantumG on 04/27/2014 04:50 am

It wasn't found floating any more than the Titanic was.

I didn't say it fit the outcome perfectly, I said it was the closest fit. If you want to argue that "recovered from the sea bottom" is a closer fit, that's fine. They are both off the mark but in different directions.

Sorry I didn't think of the exact outcome in advance. I still think it was a useful and interesting poll.

One interesting outcome to me was that the two most popular answers

- Sank before any recovery assets arrived on the scene, located, but nothing recovered (31.5%)
- Found floating but damaged, essentially all of stage returned to shore, successful recovery (21.9%)

are wider of the mark by a lot more than the two answers that bracketed it better, but got far less votes

- Sank but all or part later salvaged from the ocean floor (7.9%)
- Found floating but damaged. All or part lost trying to recover, or on return journey (14.4%)

And here I thought I might have put up too many different choices.

ugordan · « **Reply #60 on:** 04/27/2014 02:01 pm »

Quote from: Zed_Noir on 04/27/2014 01:32 pm

Quote from: ugordan on 04/27/2014 12:18 pm
Quote from: Llian Rhydderch on 04/27/2014 12:06 pm
If the F9 booster successfully did the ocean soft landing, and became horizontal in the next 8 seconds or so, and they have (even crappy) video images of that from the aircraft, would that not be "found floating..."?

That's likely footage from the onboard (likely heavily fogged up by that point) downward looking camera, not airplane footage. IOW, telemetry received in real time without having a visual on the stage as it's conceivable the landing zone was clouded over.

Could be IR or low light amplified footage from the SpaceX private jet. Which are usually difficult to make out objects but less of an issue with cloud cover with the IR.

I rewatched Musk's press conference on the 25th, with respect to video he said the link was very weak and they're trying to clean it up so that corroborates my theory. In addition to being fogged-up, it's probably full of data dropouts. Airplane recorded video would not be impacted by any link issues as it would have been recorded locally and returned.

Antares · « **Reply #61 on:** 04/27/2014 07:21 pm »

What was the weather like? Was the lighting good or was it stormy/cloudy? What was driving the sea state?

srepetsk · « **Reply #62 on:** 04/27/2014 09:41 pm »

Quote from: Antares on 04/27/2014 07:21 pm

What was the weather like? Was the lighting good or was it stormy/cloudy? What was driving the sea state?

There were heavy waves, reports of 10-15' peaks. They weren't able to get a boat out to the landing site until ~2 days afterwards, per Elon at the Friday press conference.

QuantumG · « **Reply #63 on:** 04/27/2014 09:44 pm »

Quote from: Lar on 04/27/2014 01:40 pm

- Sank before any recovery assets arrived on the scene, located, but nothing recovered (31.5%)

That's exactly what happened.

I think the problem here is that you think "recovered" includes "we collected some bits that float", it doesn't. If that was the criteria SpaceX could say they recovered the vehicle on the last flight too. Even the bits they found floating, mostly carbon fiber, were ripped apart.

It sank. The boats took two days to get there. Nothing was recovered.

Lar · « **Reply #64 on:** 04/27/2014 09:59 pm »

Quote from: QuantumG on 04/27/2014 09:44 pm

It sank. The boats took two days to get there. Nothing was recovered.

I'm ok with that, honest. But a leg is not "nothing". that's all. Peace out. poll over.

Hm... "celebrate our awesomeness" ... I think I know how qG voted..

QuantumG · « **Reply #65 on:** 04/28/2014 01:50 am »

Quote from: Lar on 04/27/2014 09:59 pm

Quote from: QuantumG on 04/27/2014 09:44 pm
It sank. The boats took two days to get there. Nothing was recovered.

I'm ok with that, honest. But a leg is not "nothing". that's all. Peace out. poll over.

Quote from: Elon Musk

We actually have been able to find pieces of the interstage. The interstage is the carbon fiber structure that joins the first and second stage. That's certainly something that you would expect to get destroyed by wave action as it's got that big open hole at the top and waves will come in and blow it apart. We've recovered most of the interstage. We recovered a portion of one leg, and there are a bunch of other little bits and pieces. We've not recovered anything of the main aluminum-lithium airframe. - transcript

There's a technical word for this stuff.. it's called "floatsom". Most of us would call it junk. It's not what anyone would call "recovering a rocket stage". The majority vote was 100% right. Celebrate our awesomeness.

meadows.st · « **Reply #66 on:** 04/28/2014 05:30 pm »

Quote from: QuantumG on 04/28/2014 01:50 am

Quote from: Lar on 04/27/2014 09:59 pm
Quote from: QuantumG on 04/27/2014 09:44 pm
It sank. The boats took two days to get there. Nothing was recovered.

I'm ok with that, honest. But a leg is not "nothing". that's all. Peace out. poll over.

Quote from: Elon Musk
We actually have been able to find pieces of the interstage. The interstage is the carbon fiber structure that joins the first and second stage. That's certainly something that you would expect to get destroyed by wave action as it's got that big open hole at the top and waves will come in and blow it apart. We've recovered most of the interstage. We recovered a portion of one leg, and there are a bunch of other little bits and pieces. We've not recovered anything of the main aluminum-lithium airframe. - transcript

There's a technical word for this stuff.. it's called "floatsom". Most of us would call it junk. It's not what anyone would call "recovering a rocket stage". The majority vote was 100% right. Celebrate our awesomeness.

An observation based on the following quote:
"we kinda got unlucky that we essentially landed the stage in the middle of a big storm" - Elon Musk (From QG's transcript

The vast majority of the votes:

Quote

Sank before any recovery assets arrived on the scene, located, but nothing recovered 92 (31.5%)
Found floating but damaged. All or part lost trying to recover, or on return journey 42 (14.4%)
Found floating but damaged, essentially all of stage returned to shore, successful recovery 64 (21.9%)
Found floating, essentially undamaged, but all or part lost trying to recover, or on return journey 8 (2.7%)
Found floating, essentially undamaged, returned successfully 29 (9.9%)

for a total of 80.4% are reason to "Celebrate our awesomeness"

for the following reasons:
a) "Sank before any recovery assets..." is a statement that is true because "[SpaceX] kinda got unlucky"
b) "Found floating but damaged. All or part lost..." is still a possible outcome of a nominal landing (of future first stages) in "seas <6ft" which was one of the (test) conditions that was exceeded at launch
c) "Found floating but damaged, essentially all of stage..." (my vote because I thought they had already got a ship close to the stage and I thought that the stage would be damaged by wave action but not at the point of landing) is still a possible (future) outcome as in note b)
d) "Found floating, essentially undamaged, but all or part lost..." is still a possible (future) outcome as in note b)
e) "Found floating, essentially undamaged, returned successfully" is still a possible (future) outcome as in note b)

And for those of you who got the answer "right". Congratulations!

Personally, I am still lamenting the loss of the stage because now I will be on tenterhooks (again) for the next recovery attempt and I don't know if my heart can continue to take this level of stress.

Lar · « **Reply #67 on:** 04/28/2014 05:53 pm »

Thank you meadows.st for that thorough[1] dissection/analysis.

Also, major props to you on calling the 8 seconds for time to tipover

1 - dare I say epic?

Antares · « **Reply #68 on:** 04/28/2014 08:41 pm »

Quote from: srepetsk on 04/27/2014 09:41 pm

Quote from: Antares on 04/27/2014 07:21 pm
What was the weather like? Was the lighting good or was it stormy/cloudy? What was driving the sea state?
There were heavy waves, reports of 10-15' peaks. They weren't able to get a boat out to the landing site until ~2 days afterwards, per Elon at the Friday press conference.

That's not what I asked. I already knew that. I asked what the weather was, leading to whether there is video and what its quality might be.