Author Topic: LIVE: SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - CRS-3 Dragon - ATTEMPT 2 UPDATES (Read 229796 times)

Chris Bergin · « **on:** 04/18/2014 02:51 am »

LIVE SECOND ATTEMPT LAUNCH DAY UPDATE THREAD FOR SPACEX'S FALCON 9 V1.1 LAUNCH OF CRS-3 Dragon.

THIS THREAD IS FOR UPDATES ONLY. ALL NON UPDATES WILL BE REMOVED.

Webcast: http://www.spacex.com/webcast/
http://www.spacex.com/webcast/

Window is instantaneous at 19:25 UTC (15:25 local time).

Resources:

Specific Articles for F9/CRS-3
Numerous articles on this page:
http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/tag/dragon/

POST SCRUB/FORWARD PLAN Article:
http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2014/04/spacex-nasa-realign-launch-eva-scenarios/

ATTEMPT 2 LAUNCH ARTICLE - By William Graham
http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2014/04/spacex-crs-3-dragon-new-milestones/

SpaceX News Articles from 2006 (Including numerous exclusive Elon interviews):
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=21862.0

SpaceX News Articles (Recent):
http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/tag/spacex/

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ATTEMPT 1 (SCRUB) UPDATES:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=34476.0

SpaceX GENERAL Forum Section:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?board=45.0 - please use this for general questions NOT specific to this mission.

SpaceX MISSIONS Forum Section:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?board=55.0 - this section is for everything specific to SpaceX missions.

SpaceX CRS-3 General Thread:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=31513.0

SpaceX CRS-3 LAUNCH UPDATE Thread:
You're in it.

SpaceX CRS-3 Party Thread:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=34006.0

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L2 Members:

L2 SpaceX Section - now a dedicated full section (very impressive now, from exclusive F9/Dragon to BFR/MTC):
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=24469.0

L2 Level F9 v1.1/CRS-3 Pre Launch:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=31562.0

L2 Level F9 v1.1/CRS-3 SCRUBBED ATTEMPT 1:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=34475.0

L2 Level F9 v1.1/CRS-3 ATTEMPT 2:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=34500.0

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PLEASE NOTE THAT WE FULLY EXPECT THE SITE TO BE VERY BUSY ON LAUNCH DAYS FOR SPACEX MISSIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE WE WILL RESTRICT IT TO FORUM MEMBERS ONLY - WITH NO ACCESS TO THE FORUM FOR GUESTS - IF THE SITE BECOMES TOO BUSY. READ THIS: http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=31697.0)

Lee Jay · « **Reply #1 on:** 04/18/2014 03:09 am »

Latest weather update. 60% probability of violation (still).

Targeteer · « **Reply #2 on:** 04/18/2014 11:15 am »

8 hours out, not looking too bad. The gulf side of the peninsula is truly ugly and if it moves east...

mikegi · « **Reply #3 on:** 04/18/2014 11:35 am »

I don't know all the launch wx criteria but it isn't looking good. Here's a link to the hourly weather graph for the launch site:

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=28.61138&lon=-80.64745&unit=0&lg=english&FcstType=graphical

psloss · « **Reply #4 on:** 04/18/2014 11:59 am »

Quote from: Targeteer on 04/18/2014 11:15 am

The gulf side of the peninsula is truly ugly and if it moves east...

That's the general forecast for today; see the synopsis in the forecasts issued yesterday and Wednesday. The track of that "feature"/surface low is what they were focusing on yesterday.

psloss · « **Reply #5 on:** 04/18/2014 12:03 pm »

Quote from: mikegi on 04/18/2014 11:35 am

I don't know all the launch wx criteria but it isn't looking good. Here's a link to the hourly weather graph for the launch site:

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=28.61138&lon=-80.64745&unit=0&lg=english&FcstType=graphical

These forecasts don't apply well to launch weather constraints.

Chris Bergin · « **Reply #6 on:** 04/18/2014 12:06 pm »

Articles realigned for this second attempt:

POST SCRUB/FORWARD PLAN Article:
http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2014/04/spacex-nasa-realign-launch-eva-scenarios/

ATTEMPT 2 LAUNCH ARTICLE - By William Graham
http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2014/04/spacex-crs-3-dragon-new-milestones/

JimOman · « **Reply #7 on:** 04/18/2014 01:09 pm »

45th Space Wing Meteorology reporting 60% chance of weather violation for launch day. Weather rule concerns are Thick Cloud Rule, Lighting Rule and Flight Through Precip.

Read the report here:

http://www.patrick.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-070716-028.pdf

Galactic Penguin SST · « **Reply #8 on:** 04/18/2014 01:16 pm »

Thunderstorm currently crossing the Cape - but it's a small one and should cross quickly. The big ones are still on the gulf side of Florida.

psloss · « **Reply #9 on:** 04/18/2014 01:30 pm »

Quote from: JimOman on 04/18/2014 01:09 pm

45th Space Wing Meteorology reporting 60% chance of weather violation for launch day. Weather rule concerns are Thick Cloud Rule, Lighting Rule and Flight Through Precip.

Read the report here:

http://www.patrick.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-070716-028.pdf

FYI, the current version on the Patrick site was issued yesterday morning. (Also posted/attached up-thread by Lee Jay.) Still waiting for today's...

Galactic Penguin SST · « **Reply #10 on:** 04/18/2014 01:36 pm »

NASA TV is on with a ISS briefing about CRS-3 (plus the MDM replacement EVA) right now - Mike Suffredini said he's hopeful they will find a hole in the weather to launch Falcon 9/Dragon to ISS this afternoon.

psloss · « **Reply #11 on:** 04/18/2014 01:37 pm »

Quote from: Galactic Penguin SST on 04/18/2014 01:36 pm

NASA TV is on with a ISS briefing about CRS-3 (plus the MDM replacement EVA) right now - Mike Suffredini said he's hopeful they will find a hole in the weather to launch Falcon 9/Dragon to ISS this afternoon.

More about the latter than the former. Brief pad shot from the briefing.

Lee Jay · « **Reply #12 on:** 04/18/2014 01:39 pm »

Quote from: Galactic Penguin SST on 04/18/2014 01:36 pm

NASA TV is on with a ISS briefing about CRS-3 (plus the MDM replacement EVA) right now - Mike Suffredini said he's hopeful they will find a hole in the weather to launch Falcon 9/Dragon to ISS this afternoon.

The problem is (quoting Chris in the OP), "Window is instantaneous at 19:25 UTC (15:25 local time)." So the hole has to find them, not the other way around.

rdale · « **Reply #13 on:** 04/18/2014 01:41 pm »

The USAF forecast is surprisingly optimistic, I'd give their chances of launch maybe at 10-20%.

mikegi · « **Reply #14 on:** 04/18/2014 01:42 pm »

Here are a couple of wx graphics for the launch from the HRRR model (run time = 10Z, valid time = 19Z):

Aviation Flight Rules:
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2014041810/t6/flru_t6sfc_f09.png

Composite Reflectivity:
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2014041810/t6/cref_t6sfc_f09.png

psloss · « **Reply #15 on:** 04/18/2014 01:46 pm »

Wx LCCs -- these are being evaluated in real-time, but the focus will be closer to T-0.

psloss · « **Reply #16 on:** 04/18/2014 01:49 pm »

Quote from: mikegi on 04/18/2014 01:42 pm

Here are a couple of wx graphics for the launch from the HRRR model (run time = 10Z, valid time = 19Z):

Those are also hard to apply to launch weather rules.

Negative Return · « **Reply #17 on:** 04/18/2014 02:03 pm »

Interesting little nugget from that graphic: "First stage landing (<6 foot waves)"

Assume that's a showstopper based on its placement with the other criteria. But I wonder what happens if that's the only violation?

Lee Jay · « **Reply #18 on:** 04/18/2014 02:05 pm »

Quote from: Negative Return on 04/18/2014 02:03 pm

Interesting little nugget from that graphic: "First stage landing (<6 foot waves)"

Assume that's a showstopper based on its placement with the other criteria. But I wonder what happens if that's the only violation?

Since it says, "exceeded" instead of "no go", I'm guessing it wouldn't hold up the launch.

psloss · « **Reply #19 on:** 04/18/2014 02:22 pm »

Regarding launch opportunities, Mike Suffredini was asked about a drop-dead date in the EVA preview briefing and he indicated that hasn't been decided yet. He referred to opportunities already mentioned -- today, tomorrow, and the 22nd -- and also possibly on the 25th.