The gulf side of the peninsula is truly ugly and if it moves east...
I don't know all the launch wx criteria but it isn't looking good. Here's a link to the hourly weather graph for the launch site:http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=28.61138&lon=-80.64745&unit=0&lg=english&FcstType=graphical
45th Space Wing Meteorology reporting 60% chance of weather violation for launch day. Weather rule concerns are Thick Cloud Rule, Lighting Rule and Flight Through Precip. Read the report here:http://www.patrick.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-070716-028.pdf
NASA TV is on with a ISS briefing about CRS-3 (plus the MDM replacement EVA) right now - Mike Suffredini said he's hopeful they will find a hole in the weather to launch Falcon 9/Dragon to ISS this afternoon.
Here are a couple of wx graphics for the launch from the HRRR model (run time = 10Z, valid time = 19Z):
Interesting little nugget from that graphic: "First stage landing (<6 foot waves)"Assume that's a showstopper based on its placement with the other criteria. But I wonder what happens if that's the only violation?