Gwynne Shotwell on The Space Show 3/21

[GalacticIntruder]

Seems like you have to look at the marginal cost of Isp. Does it make any sense for SpaceX to spend tens of millions or hundreds of million of dollars for a new vac engine for the current fleet; just to pick up around 20 seconds Isp? I'd say no. SpaceX always leans towards costs over raw performance. The FH does anything it was built for. Their future SHLV is for BLEO, where every second counts.

[Robotbeat]

I don't think it'd necessarily take SpaceX 100s of millions of dollars to modify Merlin Vac to run methane. Falcon 9 could certainly benefit from a higher energy upper stage.

EDIT:I don't mean to give the impression that this is where I think SpaceX either will or should go.

[Comga]

I am disappointed that someone asked when the "cargo Dragon" would do a powered landing. The word "cargo" lead Ms Shotwell to discuss the different versions of Dragon instead of the timing, which would have been my single question.

This is the kind of overreaching that I often do and regret. KISS

[cuddihy]

2552, great job! Thanks for putting all that down!

[guckyfan]

During the show it was quite clear that Gwynne Shotwell tried not to paint the new vehicle as competition to SLS. The most she said she has her opinion on SLS but that is not relevant.

Also the emphasis that it is for Mars only. 

[Halidon]

Quick notes from Gwynne Shotwell's appearance on The Space Show, if anything here is wrong, feel free to correct:

39A not big enough for SpaceX super HLV, would build new site

Yowza. BFR indeed.

[guckyfan]

Quick notes from Gwynne Shotwell's appearance on The Space Show, if anything here is wrong, feel free to correct:

39A not big enough for SpaceX super HLV, would build new site

Yowza. BFR indeed.

I take it new site means not in Florida!?

Otherwise she would say new pad.

[Lars_J]

I don't think it'd necessarily take SpaceX 100s of millions of dollars to modify Merlin Vac to run methane. Falcon 9 could certainly benefit from a higher energy upper stage.

What your line of reasoning sounds like:

[Halidon]

I take it new site means not in Florida!?

Otherwise she would say new pad.

No I don't agree at all. A "new site" could just as easily be in Florida, at the Cape, just not on on a current pad.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Th show is now available on line, eg via iTunes podcast or at http://archive.thespaceshow.com/shows/2212-BWB-2014-03-21.mp3

[cuddihy]

Quick notes from Gwynne Shotwell's appearance on The Space Show, if anything here is wrong, feel free to correct:

Raptor question, smaller methane engine than million lb thrust one? no smaller engine, some subscale components being made for testing, focus on full Raptor

...

Raptor methane engine is for super HLV, but wouldn't rule out methane upper stage for F9/FH

These comments seem a bit contradictory?

I took it as a general statement that there are no plans for a methane engine for F9/FH, but you never know if plans could change in the future. Basically a no for the forseeable future.

I think that is exactly right. 

If you listen to her comments in context, it is clear she said their focus is on (only) the full-size Raptor engine.

Much later in the broadcast, she was asked something about using a Raptor on an upper stage of F9/FH; all she said she wouldn't rule it out.  Definitely clear they are not pursuing that.

Also said that the SpaceX focus for NOW is F9/FH/Dragon_v2, higher production and launch ops rates;
THEN...
LATER, when FH & Dv2 flying regularly, and Dv2_crew flying, SpaceX focus would be the Mars-objective missions:  including a "test flight" to Mars, plus early equipment flights, in prep for the (main event) human transport to Mars.  (Raptor on F9/FH upper stage just takes their eye off the main event ball.

Yep, this puts my speculations on a near-term methalox F9 US to bed...

[manboy]

Th show is now available on line, eg via iTunes podcast or at http://archive.thespaceshow.com/shows/2212-BWB-2014-03-21.mp3

10:44 - "I hope we refly a stage next year, we want to land one on land this year. But that's optimistic, we still have a lot of work to do."

11:45 - Falcon Heavy late this year or early next.

16:00 - Talks about the SpX-3 launch delay. (Very interesting)

18:35 - "What is new about this Dragon?" "It looks the same on the outside but it has a completely new avionics system. NASA really wanted the ability to carry more of the glacier and merlin freezers, they needed more power and the cargo racks needed to be redesigned, so in order to accommodate more power for these payloads...we had to redesign the avionics to take power out of the Dragon system to provide additional power for these payloads."

20:40 - Site hasn't been selected for the BFR, "I don't think 39A is big enough for these vehicles. Ya, we'd build a new site."

22:00 - No smaller methane engines are planned, Raptor is the focus.

22:16 - "What name will we be using for the upcoming nine Raptor, 10+ meter diameter rocket?" "We haven't named it yet."

23:50 - "When will the cargo version of Dragon begin making propulsive landings?" "So the current version of Dragon lands in water on parachute descent, we are looking at landing it on land under parachute. As for propulsive landing that is for our new version, we call it V2 for Dragon and that's the primary vehicle, that's the vehicle for crew, and we will retrofit that for cargo."

28:20 - On the unveiling of the Dragon2 "I don't know the specific time frame, it'll be later this year."

33:00 - Came really close to recovering a stage on the Cassiope mission.

38:00 - Q: Using a crewed Dragon for BLEO missions.

39:00 - Q: Using crewed Dragon for tourism and transportation to private stations. "If we're selected to continue the [ISS] crew program then I'm pretty sure we'll be flying Bigelow researchers to their habitats or Bigelow customers to his habitats."

40:30 - "The factory is set up to build 40 cores per year."

[Comga]

Th show is now available on line, eg via iTunes podcast or at http://archive.thespaceshow.com/shows/2212-BWB-2014-03-21.mp3

18:35 - "What is new about this Dragon?" "It looks the same on the outside but it has a completely new avionics system. NASA really wanted the ability to carry more of the glacier and merlin freezers, they needed more power and the cargo racks needed to be redesigned, so in order to accommodate more power for these payloads...we had to redesign the avionics to take power out of the Dragon system to provide additional power for these payloads."

That answers that question.

28:20 - On the unveiling of the Dragon2 "I don't know the specific time frame, it'll be later this year."

That's what Musk said last year.

[Jcc]

She said they are currently working on some some sub scale elements of Raptor, so you might imagine that to mean they build a turbo pump that is sized for a Merlin scale methane engine for the purpose of refining the design, but they don't plan to build a complete sub scale engine.

[Robotbeat]

She said they are currently working on some some sub scale elements of Raptor, so you might imagine that to mean they build a turbo pump that is sized for a Merlin scale methane engine for the purpose of refining the design, but they don't plan to build a complete sub scale engine.

Or, as likely, they may just build a scaled down prototype gas generator and maybe a pressure-fed chamber to test injector design. Turbopumps are a pain unless you're actually going to build an engine around it.

[a_langwich]

Seems like you have to look at the marginal cost of Isp. Does it make any sense for SpaceX to spend tens of millions or hundreds of million of dollars for a new vac engine for the current fleet; just to pick up around 20 seconds Isp? I'd say no. SpaceX always leans towards costs over raw performance. The FH does anything it was built for. Their future SHLV is for BLEO, where every second counts.

NASA science missions do BLEO, could use the performance.  Not sure if Falcon Heavy will come in cheaper than an Atlas 531-541-551.  If not, then maybe SpaceX will just forego that business.   

[Dave G]

Quick notes from Gwynne Shotwell's appearance on The Space Show, if anything here is wrong, feel free to correct:

39A not big enough for SpaceX super HLV, would build new site

Yowza. BFR indeed.

Indeed.

[bocephus419]

Beginning at 8:57 she says (paraphrasing here) that while the prices on the spacex site don't account for reusability yet, the performance specs do. She says the actual performance is about 30% higher than quoted on the site.  Was this known already? This is HUGE news to me!

So, using Gwynne's previously stated goal of $7 million per Falcon 9R flight, that comes to $7,000,000 / 28,991 Lbs to LEO = $241/Lb to LEO

[guckyfan]

Beginning at 8:57 she says (paraphrasing here) that while the prices on the spacex site don't account for reusability yet, the performance specs do. She says the actual performance is about 30% higher than quoted on the site.  Was this known already? This is HUGE news to me!

We had a lot of argument along that line. However this seems to be the first official confirmation.

Edit: There was also a statement by Elon Musk that they can pretty much fly their whole manifest with the reusable Falcon.

[Owlon]

Beginning at 8:57 she says (paraphrasing here) that while the prices on the spacex site don't account for reusability yet, the performance specs do. She says the actual performance is about 30% higher than quoted on the site.  Was this known already? This is HUGE news to me!

That's roughly in line with the old ~16,000-17,000 kg to LEO payload shown in the NLS II vehicle performance plotter and that, if I recall correctly, was briefly on the SpaceX website. I had been hoping that the 13150 kg to LEO number on the website included first stage reuse, so its nice to see confirmation on that.