Gwynne Shotwell on The Space Show 3/21

[2552]

2 questions:

Does SpaceX plan to completely self-fund the Raptor HLV and the MCT, or will they eventually require NASA funding?

If SpaceX's CRS contract is extended past 2015, how likely is it Dragons will be reused from then on?

[JNobles]

Since ISS supposedly can't accept a manned Dragon until the new docking mechanism is installed in 2017 I'm wondering if there is a chance some other _paying_ customer may ride a Dragon into orbit before then.  Or does SpaceX expect the first paying customer(s) to be NASA? I wonder if Ms. Shotwell could answer that.

[WindyCity]

I think it would be great if Ms. Shotwell revealed new information in her hour-long- interview. David Livingston usually makes time for caller questions or write-ins. Based on discussions I've seen in L2 and here, I sent him the following:

When and where will the Raptor engine be tested? Please provide technical details about the rockets that the Raptor will be used in. What would be their intended customers and projected applications? Will the Raptor-powered rockets replace the Falcon Heavy?

If you have questions for Shotwell, you can send them to [email protected] or call in during the program. The latter approach of course allows you to ask follow-ups, which Livingston graciously accepts.

[Adaptation]

Since ISS supposedly can't accept a manned Dragon until the new docking mechanism is installed in 2017 I'm wondering if there is a chance some other _paying_ customer may ride a Dragon into orbit before then.  Or does SpaceX expect the first paying customer(s) to be NASA? I wonder if Ms. Shotwell could answer that.

Why, I know for an escape system they want to be able to shut the doors fast and get the heck out but there is no reason we cant leave spare Soyuz attached and use dragon only for non emergency egress until they get something better figured out. 

When and where will the Raptor engine be tested? Please provide technical details about the rockets that the Raptor will be used in. What would be their intended customers and projected applications? Will the Raptor-powered rockets replace the Falcon Heavy?

I think she is a little better about not leaking details ahead of plan than Musk.  Something like that would probably be best disclosed with a press release but who knows anything can happen with a live interview. 

[manboy]

Since ISS supposedly can't accept a manned Dragon until the new docking mechanism is installed in 2017

You're off by about two years, IDA-1 is scheduled to launch on SpX-7 in April 2015.

[CuddlyRocket]

When launched on a Falcon 9, is Dragon's max payload to the ISS 3,000 or 6,000 kg? (Note: To anyone asking the question, it doesn't matter that the first number is probably wrong. What matters is figuring out how much mass Dragon can deliver to ISS. ...

I'm just trying to get the answer to a question that a lot of people want to know. ... I have no idea what Dragon's actual max payload is, we've seen several conflicting numbers and it would be nice to get some clarification.

Important the question clarifies what 'payload' you're talking about. My impression is that the 6,000kg is the maximum payload the Dragon itself can structurally handle. Subject to that, how much cargo any particular Dragon can carry to the ISS obviously depends on the launcher.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

My question would be: what market is there for HLVs larger than Falcon Heavy?

[sugmullun]

  As launches become more routine does SpaceX have any forthcoming strategy(s) for preventing or mitigating the effects of individual launch delays on subsequent launches?

[Dave G]

I'd like to know more details on the BFR, if possible.

[Robotbeat]

My question would be: what market is there for HLVs larger than Falcon Heavy?

Perhaps if they are partially reusable and can capture a majority of the commercial market and some of the US military market.

[Dudely]

When launched on a Falcon 9, is Dragon's max payload to the ISS 3,000 or 6,000 kg? (Note: To anyone asking the question, it doesn't matter that the first number is probably wrong. What matters is figuring out how much mass Dragon can deliver to ISS. ...

I'm just trying to get the answer to a question that a lot of people want to know. ... I have no idea what Dragon's actual max payload is, we've seen several conflicting numbers and it would be nice to get some clarification.

Important the question clarifies what 'payload' you're talking about. My impression is that the 6,000kg is the maximum payload the Dragon itself can structurally handle. Subject to that, how much cargo any particular Dragon can carry to the ISS obviously depends on the launcher.

Don't forget that the more payload you have the more fuel you need to maneuver the spacecraft towards the ISS. This is a very substantial part of the weight.

[Adaptation]

My question would be: what market is there for HLVs larger than Falcon Heavy?

Perhaps if they are partially reusable and can capture a majority of the commercial market and some of the US military market.

The performance hit from reusability will be compounded when they try to do it on second stage.  Maybe a fully reusable BFR wont have that much capacity if the second stage flies all the way to geo and back. 

[WindyCity]

From TheSpaceShow Program Schedule:

3. The Friday March 21, 2014 program from 9:30-11 AM PDT, (12:30-2 PM EDT, 11:30 AM 1 PM CDT): We welcome back MS. GWYNNE SHOTWELL, President & COO of SpaceX. Gwynne will be with us for only the first hour. Listener emails & calls must be very short to make room for as many participants as possible. Please, one question/comment only per listener. AND MAKE IT SHORT, Please!

Mrs. Shotwell was named President of SpaceX in November 2008.  Mrs. Shotwell joined SpaceX in 2002 as Vice President of Business Development to generate and manage SpaceX's customer base and the company's strategic and government relations.   In that role, she built the Falcon vehicle family manifest to 29 launches, representing over $2B in revenue.  Shotwell is responsible for operational activities of SpaceX, including sales, marketing, manufacturing, launch operations, legal, government relations and finance.  Previously, she served for ten years at The Aerospace Corporation and before that, directed business development at Microcosm, Inc. She began her engineering career at Chrysler Motors.  Mrs. Shotwell received, with honors, her Bachelor’s and Master’s Degree from Northwestern University in Mechanical Engineering and Applied Mathematics.  She is active in the Professional Aerospace community, as an elected executive member of the California Space Authority Board of Directors, former officer for both the Space Systems Technical Committee and the LA Section of the AIAA and heads the Frank J. Redd Student scholarship competition raising over $200,000 in scholarships in four years.  Mrs. Shotwell developed curricula and taught courses in Systems engineering at the introductory, management, and team levels. Mrs. Shotwell has authored papers in a wide variety of areas from standardizing spacecraft/payload interfaces to Space Shuttle  integration and reentry vehicle operational risks.

Listeners can talk with Gwynne Shotwell or the host using toll free 1 (866) 687-7223, by sending e-mail during the program using [email protected], [email protected], or [email protected]. To use Skype from your computer with a headset, the I. D. is thespaceshow. Skype is only available if when announced at the beginning of the program. Please note the toll free number is only available during a live Space Show program. At all other times, it is disconnected.

[2552]

Quick notes from Gwynne Shotwell's appearance on The Space Show, if anything here is wrong, feel free to correct:

LC-40 to be modded to allow FH launches, 39A will also launch F9 and FH

39A not big enough for SpaceX super HLV, would build new site

Raptor question, smaller methane engine than million lb thrust one? no smaller engine, some subscale components being made for testing, focus on full Raptor

Raptor super HLV not named yet

When will cargo Dragon make powered landings? powered landing is for Dragon V2 (crew), will retrofit powered landing to cargo version

Raptor methane engine is for super HLV, but wouldn't rule out methane upper stage for F9/FH

Dragon 2 unveiling later this year

what are markets for super HLV? F9/FH is for commercial sat launches, super HLV is for transport to Mars

what rockets Raptor will be used for, and specs? Raptor is for Mars launches, not releasing specs yet.

only doing a few secondary payloads, not a lot of money in secondary market

commercial crew (not SpaceX specifically) about a year behind where it would be if fully funded, Congress may consider more funding given Crimea

with increased launch rate, will SpX prep 2 launches at 2 pads at once? likely in 2015 (referring to next VAFB launch?)

biggest near term challenges for SpX? make rockets highly producible, increase production rate, no big issues meeting that, current TAKT time 1 core a month, should be 2 a month by end of year.

when will SpX Mars missions happen? Lots of work to do, Elon says 12-13 years, will shoot for that timeframe.

not focused on Phobos or Deimos, but doesn't mean we wouldn't look at them

concern on increasing regulation? not overly concerned, but keep close eye, pretty comfortable with where regs are now

SpX has over 3000 employees, will expand and where focus? yes, will expand at more "sane" pace than in past, in all our locations

almost recovered CASSIOPE 1st stage, what changes to successfully recover? optimize reentry/landing burn, get more stability on stage, add ACS, make iterative progress, hard problem but believe will solve it.

[R7]

Quick notes from Gwynne Shotwell's appearance on The Space Show, if anything here is wrong, feel free to correct:

Raptor question, smaller methane engine than million lb thrust one? no smaller engine, some subscale components being made for testing, focus on full Raptor

...

Raptor methane engine is for super HLV, but wouldn't rule out methane upper stage for F9/FH

These comments seem a bit contradictory?

[2552]

Quick notes from Gwynne Shotwell's appearance on The Space Show, if anything here is wrong, feel free to correct:

Raptor question, smaller methane engine than million lb thrust one? no smaller engine, some subscale components being made for testing, focus on full Raptor

...

Raptor methane engine is for super HLV, but wouldn't rule out methane upper stage for F9/FH

These comments seem a bit contradictory?

I took it as a general statement that there are no plans for a methane engine for F9/FH, but you never know if plans could change in the future. Basically a no for the forseeable future.

[a_langwich]

Quick notes from Gwynne Shotwell's appearance on The Space Show, if anything here is wrong, feel free to correct:

Raptor question, smaller methane engine than million lb thrust one? no smaller engine, some subscale components being made for testing, focus on full Raptor

...

Raptor methane engine is for super HLV, but wouldn't rule out methane upper stage for F9/FH

These comments seem a bit contradictory?

Well, the authoritative answer would be Shotwell's, but she doesn't post on this forum...so, it seems to me she is saying they are only working on the full-size Raptor right now, but she wouldn't rule out a smaller upper stage design in the future.

[DJPledger]

Quick notes from Gwynne Shotwell's appearance on The Space Show, if anything here is wrong, feel free to correct:

Raptor question, smaller methane engine than million lb thrust one? no smaller engine, some subscale components being made for testing, focus on full Raptor

...

Raptor methane engine is for super HLV, but wouldn't rule out methane upper stage for F9/FH

These comments seem a bit contradictory?

Perhaps SpaceX will convert MvacD to methane for F9/FH upper stage. Should be easier and lower cost to do than a downscaled Raptor.

[sdsds]

Generalizing on DJPledger's thought, I would reconcile the apparent contradiction in Shotwell's comments by theorizing she implied that if there were to be a methane upper stage engine for FH, it wouldn't be an engine that came out of the "Raptor" development program.

[Llian Rhydderch]

Quick notes from Gwynne Shotwell's appearance on The Space Show, if anything here is wrong, feel free to correct:

Raptor question, smaller methane engine than million lb thrust one? no smaller engine, some subscale components being made for testing, focus on full Raptor

...

Raptor methane engine is for super HLV, but wouldn't rule out methane upper stage for F9/FH

These comments seem a bit contradictory?

I took it as a general statement that there are no plans for a methane engine for F9/FH, but you never know if plans could change in the future. Basically a no for the forseeable future.

I think that is exactly right. 

If you listen to her comments in context, it is clear she said their focus is on (only) the full-size Raptor engine.

Much later in the broadcast, she was asked something about using a Raptor on an upper stage of F9/FH; all she said she wouldn't rule it out.  Definitely clear they are not pursuing that.

Also said that the SpaceX focus for NOW is F9/FH/Dragon_v2, higher production and launch ops rates;
THEN...
LATER, when FH & Dv2 flying regularly, and Dv2_crew flying, SpaceX focus would be the Mars-objective missions:  including a "test flight" to Mars, plus early equipment flights, in prep for the (main event) human transport to Mars.  (Raptor on F9/FH upper stage just takes their eye off the main event ball.