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#20 by sdsds on 18 May, 2014 20:52
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I think at issue here is Russia's ability to confirm the precise nature of every payload under the fairing. I'm not suggesting a relatively benign NRO payload would be used as a cover for something darker, but similar things have happened in the past.
To use just one example as an attempt to explore the issues, what if an Atlas V payload included a powerful transmitter capable of "jamming" the communications signals of opponents? What if the transmitter were strong enough to permanently damage the comm equipment of the opponent? Would that payload -- which might sit hidden for years on an otherwise strictly reconnaissance platform -- be a weapon? -
#21 by watermod on 18 May, 2014 23:49
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This think-tank that specializes in Russia and ex-USSR is being hammered up and down by hackers but has an article about what the Russians are saying, doing and claiming about this whole space mess that covers more space issues than we have seen addressed in NSF:
US Restrictions Hurt Russian Space Defense and Commercial Projects
Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 11 Issue: 91, May 15, 2014 By: Pavel Felgenhauer
http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=42363&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=7&cHash=aa4e9fe87ccb03e5d58e0cb517edb4cb#.U3lC83Wx3UZQuoteBefore the Ukrainian crisis, during the heyday of President’s Barack Obama’s “reset” charm offensive, Washington was apparently turning a blind eye to aggressive Russian procurement of high-tech, double-use equipment and technologies. Today a US move to deny high-tech export licenses threatens to set back the entire Russian military modernization project, which is based primarily on using space-connected technologies to develop new precision weapons, intelligence-gathering, communications, and command and control capabilities. In response Rogozin went ballistic, threatening to terminate US-Russian space cooperation programs: to stop selling RD-180 and NK-33 rocket engines “if they are used to launch US military satellites,” to close down GPS correction (Global Navigation Satellite System—GNSS) stations on Russian soil, and sink prematurely in the ocean the International Space Station (ISS) by 2020 (http://www.rg.ru/2014/05/13/bumerang-site.htm).
QuoteRussia has previously tentatively agreed to continue to jointly run the ISS until 2024, but now Rogozin insists this is senseless and the space station must be terminated by 2020. He suggested that the money saved be diverted to more ambitious programs, like creating a permanent Russian base on the Moon to mine and claim it as Russian territory by 2030, before other nations form a substantial presence there (http://izvestia.ru/news/570482)
QuoteThis week in Sochi, President Vladimir Putin announced: “We must ensure that everything our defense industry needs and uses is produced on our territory and we do not depend on anyone” (http://www.kremlin.ru/news/21021). Russian experts consider Putin’s call for complete scientific and technological self-sufficiency to be an impossible task (http://top.rbc.ru/politics/14/05/2014/923813.shtml). Russia’s Trade and Industry Minister Denis Manturov told journalists that he was surprised by calls to undermine the work of GPS-connected equipment in Russia. He did not see any sense in such obstruction and wondered if “Rogozin was just promoting his personal opinion” (http://www.interfax.ru/print.asp?sec=1448&id=376041). Manturov was immediately rebuked: A government spokesperson confirmed all announced anti-American moves were officially approved, while Rogozin demanded Manturov “end being part of the fifth column” (http://www.interfax.ru/russia/376039). Rogozin’s anti-American sanctions may hinder Russia more than the US, but they follow Putin’s general line to isolate Russia from the West as much as possible.
Lots more meat in the article including discussion of the RD-180s and the Geo-IK-2 issue that upset Rogozin and set this whole escalation off. -
#22 by Ben the Space Brit on 19 May, 2014 08:33
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How would this effect a payload like WorldView 3, launching on an Atlas, yes it's a commercial payload but it has both military & commercial customers?
No effect because the ban does not include NRO or USAF payloads. "Military applications" mean weapons
Is that the gist of any agreement between the US and Russia or is that your own opinion? -
#23 by Liss on 19 May, 2014 10:16
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Interesting enough, launch restricted zones for the launch has not been announced yet but the Centaur deorbit zone is here:Quote
!CARF 05/146 ZAK AIRSPACE DCC ER OP#8733 ATLAS-V RE-ENTRY STATIONARY ALTITUDE RESERVATION WITHIN AREA DEFINED AS 1830N17636W TO 1348N16136W TO 0712N16342W TO 1148N17836W TO POINT OF ORIGIN SFC-UNL 1405222206-1405222310
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#24 by Galactic Penguin SST on 19 May, 2014 10:21
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Interesting enough, launch restricted zones for the launch has not been announced yet but the Centaur deorbit zone is here:
Quote!CARF 05/146 ZAK AIRSPACE DCC ER OP#8733 ATLAS-V RE-ENTRY STATIONARY ALTITUDE RESERVATION WITHIN AREA DEFINED AS 1830N17636W TO 1348N16136W TO 0712N16342W TO 1148N17836W TO POINT OF ORIGIN SFC-UNL 1405222206-1405222310
This NOTAM for the de-orbiting of the Centaur is at about 10 hours (!) after the opening of the launch window - near Kwajalein in the middle of the Pacific of all places; and the shape of the area seems to hint at this being a low-inclination launch. Hmm.......
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#25 by kevin-rf on 19 May, 2014 12:07
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Does that imply the Centuar will be doing an apogee de-orbit burn for an HEO GTO type orbit.
So a restart 5 hours into the launch? Impressive. -
#26 by Galactic Penguin SST on 19 May, 2014 14:07
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Does that imply the Centuar will be doing an apogee de-orbit burn for an HEO GTO type orbit.
So a restart 5 hours into the launch? Impressive.
Yes, apparently during the launch of NROL-38 a similar procedure was done in the same area of the Pacific Ocean (except that the de-orbit area stretches northwest-southeast that time, while this time it is from southwest-northeast). -
#27 by input~2 on 19 May, 2014 16:06
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Below is the related navigational warning:
Launch window: around 1305 - 1437 UTC on May 22 (alternate 1303-1435 UTC on May 23)
Looks like it's aiming at GEO
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
ROCKETS.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 221305Z TO 221437Z MAY,
ALTERNATE 231303Z TO 231435Z MAY
IN AREAS BOUND BY:
A. 28-36N 080-35W, 28-36N 080-26W,
28-33N 079-57W, 28-30N 079-57W,
28-33N 080-33W, 28-34N 080-35W.
B. 24-41N 058-50W, 24-16N 057-10W,
24-10N 057-11W, 24-36N 058-52W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 231535Z MAY 14.//
Authority: EASTERN RANGE OP A8733 LAUNCH 131746Z MAY 14
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#28 by Galactic Penguin SST on 19 May, 2014 16:15
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With this satellite looking more like heading to geosynchronous, I wonder if the Molniya orbit SDS satellites are going to be replaced by a newer generation of satellites? Come to think about it, NROL-35 is launching this December from Vandenberg on a heavier rocket (Atlas V 531) - maybe that will replace one of the older Molniya orbit satellites? It's not like that the Molniya orbit satellites are THAT old (USA-179 was launched in August 2004 on the last Atlas II and USA-198 was launched on Atlas V in December 2007).....
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#29 by input~2 on 19 May, 2014 18:55
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Quote from: 45th Space Wing facebook page
Are you ready for another launch from the Eastern Range? The #AtlasV is scheduled to launch May 22. The launch window is 8:45-10:15 a.m. Hope to see you right here on Thursday. We will provide live updates hours before the launch.
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#30 by kevin-rf on 19 May, 2014 18:59
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With this satellite looking more like heading to geosynchronous, I wonder if the Molniya orbit SDS satellites are going to be replaced by a newer generation of satellites? Come to think about it, NROL-35 is launching this December from Vandenberg on a heavier rocket (Atlas V 531) - maybe that will replace one of the older Molniya orbit satellites? It's not like that the Molniya orbit satellites are THAT old (USA-179 was launched in August 2004 on the last Atlas II and USA-198 was launched on Atlas V in December 2007).....
Maybe after the Reset button was pressed, the Molniya SDS's where no longer needed
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#31 by Chris Bergin on 19 May, 2014 22:55
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ULA:
Everything is moving forward for the National Reconnaissance Office (NROL-33) launch this Thursday. The mission is set to lift off on a ULA Atlas V rocket on Thursday, May 22 from Space Launch Complex 41 at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida at 9:05 a.m. EDT. Today’s forecast shows an 80 percent chance of favorable weather conditions for launch. -
#32 by Chris Bergin on 20 May, 2014 14:10
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Atlas V spotted rolling to the pad.
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#33 by chewi on 20 May, 2014 14:15
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#34 by Liss on 20 May, 2014 15:19
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Back-up Centaur deorbit zone for May 23:Quote
!CARF 05/164 (KZAK A1823/14) ZAK AIRSPACE DCC ER OP#8733 ATLAS-V STATIONARY ALTITUDE RESERVATION WITHIN AN AREA DEFINED AS 1830N17636W TO 1348N16136W TO 0712N16342W TO 1148N17836W TO POINT OF ORIGIN SFC-UNL 1405232204-1405232308
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#35 by chewi on 20 May, 2014 17:55
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#36 by Targeteer on 21 May, 2014 12:59
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Launch hazard area--looks like its headed to GEO
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#37 by Chris Bergin on 21 May, 2014 13:05
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ULA:
The Atlas V rocket rolled out to the launch pad this morning in advance of the National Reconnaissance Office (NROL-33) launch this Thursday. The mission is set to lift off on a ULA Atlas V rocket on Thursday, May 22 from Space Launch Complex 41 at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida at 9:05 a.m. EDT. Today’s forecast continues to show an 80 percent chance of favorable weather conditions for launch. I have attached the mission artwork.
(That's awesome!)
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#38 by chewi on 21 May, 2014 13:10
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#39 by Blackstar on 21 May, 2014 17:43
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With this satellite looking more like heading to geosynchronous, I wonder if the Molniya orbit SDS satellites are going to be replaced by a newer generation of satellites? Come to think about it, NROL-35 is launching this December from Vandenberg on a heavier rocket (Atlas V 531) - maybe that will replace one of the older Molniya orbit satellites? It's not like that the Molniya orbit satellites are THAT old (USA-179 was launched in August 2004 on the last Atlas II and USA-198 was launched on Atlas V in December 2007).....
Maybe after the Reset button was pressed, the Molniya SDS's where no longer needed
It seems like going all-GEO is a natural evolution of relay.
The original Molniya SDS constellation was intended to relay photo reconnaissance data directly from a reconsat to a ground station in the U.S. in only one bounce--up to the SDS, down to the ground. However, there were discussions (I think they were mid-late 1970s) of going to a system that used multiple satellites in GEO. Then you can get to the ground in probably two bounces, or maybe three at most. A bit more complicated in terms of the overall constellation, but it probably solves a lot of other issues. For instance, the Molniya satellites fly through the Van Allen Belts. Not cool. Also, it's probably a bit of a pain figuring out where to point your antennas all the time. With a GEO constellation that should be simpler because the GEO satellites are not always moving their location, they're fixed.
