Author Topic: Sea Launch Future (Read 155156 times)

Steven Pietrobon · « **Reply #180 on:** 08/30/2016 06:47 am »

Quote from: Kabloona on 08/29/2016 07:31 pm

No mention of Australia?

Not directly, but they do mention a "new investor".

Quote

"There is undoubtedly an idea to create a new launch vehicle for the Sea Launch project, and it would be difficult for the new investor to work on this," General Director Vladimir Solntsev told reporters.

Kabloona · « **Reply #181 on:** 08/30/2016 02:19 pm »

Quote from: Steven Pietrobon on 08/30/2016 06:47 am

Quote from: Kabloona on 08/29/2016 07:31 pm
No mention of Australia?

Not directly, but they do mention a "new investor".

Quote
"There is undoubtedly an idea to create a new launch vehicle for the Sea Launch project, and it would be difficult for the new investor to work on this," General Director Vladimir Solntsev told reporters.

Yes, but the only investors they mention are Russian. I hope that's just an omission.

brickmack · « **Reply #182 on:** 08/30/2016 11:18 pm »

Quote from: THeel01 on 08/29/2016 06:00 pm

Possible new first stage?

http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Russian_Carrier_Rocket_for_Sea_Launches_Will_Replace_Ukraines_Zenit_999.html

I wonder what rocket they'll go with. A Zenit 3SL with Russian tanks, avionics, etc would be the obvious choice to allow use of the same infrastructure, and its probably the most capable option, but that would mean a largely new rocket with a very niche application at a time when Russia is trying to consolidate its launch systems. Angara 3 weighs slightly more, and is a little bit more powerful to LEO, but its GTO performance is awful compared to Zenit, and it would require large changes to support a 3 core rocket. Angara 1.2 easily fits within SeaLaunchs mass capability and is a single core vehicle, but its pretty small. Any Soyuz variant would also be possible by mass, but suffers the same infrastructure and performance problems.

CameronD · « **Reply #183 on:** 08/30/2016 11:59 pm »

Quote from: brickmack on 08/30/2016 11:18 pm

Quote from: THeel01 on 08/29/2016 06:00 pm
Possible new first stage?

http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Russian_Carrier_Rocket_for_Sea_Launches_Will_Replace_Ukraines_Zenit_999.html

I wonder what rocket they'll go with.

A Rocketlab Electron might work..

FutureSpaceTourist · « **Reply #184 on:** 09/24/2016 08:39 pm »

Quote

Jeff Foust ‏@jeff_foust 10m10 minutes ago

A press conference is scheduled for Tuesday at #IAC2016 about “a major announcement and additional details on the future” of Sea Launch.

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/779778986352205825

Quote

Jeff Foust ‏@jeff_foust 10m10 minutes ago

One (likely) possibility is that the press conference will announce a new investor taking a major stake in the company.

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/779779785874632704

Helodriver · « **Reply #185 on:** 09/24/2016 08:41 pm »

Quote from: FutureSpaceTourist on 09/24/2016 08:39 pm

Quote
Jeff Foust ‏@jeff_foust 10m10 minutes ago

A press conference is scheduled for Tuesday at #IAC2016 about “a major announcement and additional details on the future” of Sea Launch.
https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/779778986352205825

Quote
Jeff Foust ‏@jeff_foust 10m10 minutes ago

One (likely) possibility is that the press conference will announce a new investor taking a major stake in the company.
https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/779779785874632704

This presentation has made my list of "must do" at the IAC. I'll be there and cover it.

FutureSpaceTourist · « **Reply #186 on:** 09/24/2016 08:54 pm »

Quote

Russian airline [S7] group is expected to announce a deal to bail out troubled #SeaLaunch Tuesday. Details: http://russianspaceweb.com/sealaunch.html#s7 … #Roscosmos

https://twitter.com/RussianSpaceWeb/status/779783773584056320

Comet · « **Reply #187 on:** 09/27/2016 03:50 pm »

The deal was just signed between Energia and S7 grouo for 150 million USD.

Chris Bergin · « **Reply #188 on:** 09/27/2016 03:53 pm »

Sea Launch is back!

Via our own Derrick:

Derrick.Stamos ‏@Helodriver2004
@NASASpaceflight Russia's S7 airlines group signs deal with Energiya to purchase all assets of Sea Launch. US Russian approval pending.

15 year life of system and 70 launches.

18 months to fly again.

Zenit is still rocket of choice.

Star One · « **Reply #189 on:** 09/27/2016 06:33 pm »

Good to see Shield's secret sea base saved. Sorry I mean good to see Sea Launch saved.

D_Dom · « **Reply #190 on:** 09/27/2016 07:17 pm »

Been here the whole time, hiding in plain sight. Thanks Derrick for your most excellent reporting. Its off to work I go!

Eric Hedman · « **Reply #191 on:** 09/28/2016 01:58 am »

According to Bloomberg News:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-27/russian-airline-owner-moves-to-challenge-musk-bezos-in-space

Helodriver · « **Reply #192 on:** 09/28/2016 04:27 am »

Looking to keep operations in Long Beach, no intent to move to Australia or elsewhere.

kq6ea · « **Reply #193 on:** 09/30/2016 06:46 am »

Gonna take a metric TON of money to replace all the obsolete, broken, and no-longer-supported equipment.

They're going to find out that the $150 million was just to get their foot in the door....

Steven Pietrobon · « **Reply #194 on:** 10/10/2016 03:40 am »

Article in AW&ST.

http://aviationweek.com/space/russian-airline-group-s-space-launch-ambitions

"Sea Launch was designed for the liquid propellant Zenit-3SL rocket, which can deliver payloads of 6,160 kg (13,580 lb.) to the standard reference geosynchronous transfer orbit. Filev said they had a small reserve of the rockets, but hopes to sign an agreement with the Ukrainian company for new deliveries. “If [Yuzhmash] can supply us with the rocket we will buy it, if not—it will be their loss,” he says, adding that with the projected number of launches, there is room for other types of launch vehicles.

Russia is likely to produce the alternative launch vehicle. Energia CEO Vladimir Solntsev says his company will offer a new rocket for Sea Launch’s investor. A medium launch vehicle can be designed within five years and later used as a booster for future heavy rockets."

ChrisWilson68 · « **Reply #195 on:** 10/10/2016 03:49 am »

I wonder if the new Sea Launch booster from Russia is anything more than a bluff to get good terms from Ukraine for more of the same old Zenit rocket.

Russia is cutting back drastically on their space spending right now. It's hard to see where the money would come from for a new Sea Launch booster.

RonM · « **Reply #196 on:** 10/10/2016 03:55 am »

The S7 Group would pay for the new rocket. No need for the government to do it for free for a successful private company.

ChrisWilson68 · « **Reply #197 on:** 10/10/2016 03:58 am »

Quote from: RonM on 10/10/2016 03:55 am

The S7 Group would pay for the new rocket. No need for the government to do it for free for a successful private company.

But where would the S7 Group get the money? They're not going to be able to pull huge sums out of nowhere for a project that is very risky. If they could, they wouldn't have bought the remnants of Sea Launch, they would have started from scratch on their own launch vehicle design.

Space Ghost 1962 · « **Reply #198 on:** 10/10/2016 04:43 am »

Don't read too much into this yet. There have been many dubious deals involving Sea Launch for many years, to "kick the can down the road". All along it has been possible to do a deal to restart operations, when posturing has been the actual result.

Not only is this under financed (less than half what is needed), there are issues that keep Sea Launch from becoming a viable launch service provider. And with a concern like this, they tend to take 5x time 2-3x resources to come off (because in confronting actual operational issues, the "finger pointing" incites large delays to schedules that cascade to more delays in practice).

Here's the good part of this deal - the clear call out for the Zenit 3SL vehicle. The only vehicle that could ever fly again from Sea Launch. The one you'll have to earn positive cash flow off of (dubious before too!). The financial health of the related firms are far from the best, to make this worthwhile would require significant commitment.

The bad part of this - lack of sincerity. Considerable "bad blood" along with a tenuous operating environment (at best) history of the past. So any involved would be expecting it to fail month by month, even in the best case.

Another false deal IMHO. Perhaps done for other reasons. Does hint at something being possible. Which has always been true. But that never was the issue, was it?

The only motivation for ever allowing Sea Launch is for it to serve certain interests before the cost of disuse/discard irrecoverably dominates the original sunk investment cost. Changes in global launch market could happen in five years that will put this into the scrap bin with 100% write-off. Some think it already too late.

kq6ea · « **Reply #199 on:** 10/10/2016 06:21 am »

The last 12~18 months I was there was chock full of empty promises.

"New customers are being signed"...NOT

"We have five rockets on order"...NOT

"Raises are just around the corner"...DEFINITELY NOT

Add the cost of getting the ships dry-docked again, because after sitting for 3+ years there's going to be so much marine growth on the hulls that they'll never be able to go as fast as they used to, and fuel consumption will be significantly higher.

And we still have that pesky $400,000,000 judgment owed to Boeing......