Author Topic: SpaceX F9 : SES-10 with reuse of CRS-8 Booster SN/1021 : 2017-03-30 : DISCUSSION  (Read 392127 times)

Offline jpo234

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Reddit user /u/nifty1a with a good track record writes:

Quote from: nifty1a
Launch postponed until 30th March... as static firing due today has been postponed until tomorrow

where tomorrow is 03/28.

Source of the information:

Quote from: nifty1a
I know I'm new on here.... but I work for Airbus DS, and have friends on the satellite launch/LEOP teams.

Edit: I first posted this in the UPDATES thread, but because this is not an official source, the discussion thread seemed to be more appropriate
« Last Edit: 03/27/2017 10:48 AM by jpo234 »
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Offline Flying Beaver

Reddit user /u/nifty1a with a good track record writes:

Quote from: nifty1a
Launch postponed until 30th March... as static firing due today has been postponed until tomorrow

where tomorrow is 03/28.

Source of the information:

Quote from: nifty1a
I know I'm new on here.... but I work for Airbus DS, and have friends on the satellite launch/LEOP teams.

Edit: I first posted this in the UPDATES thread, but because this is not an official source, the discussion thread seemed to be more appropriate

Thing is the launch date probably won't be decided untill after the static fire. A 2.5 day turn around sounds like the minimum time required for payload/fairing mounting. If they think they can do it, they'll do it. Especially if the static fire is at the opening of the window.
Watched B1019 land in person 21/12/2015.

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Yeah, they have to get the Static Fire done first. For instance, issues today and you impact down the chain even more.

Likely how this will pan out as they were very tight on the margin in the first place. I just need to see the date updated on actual a schedule, etc....per how I report these things.

PS Thursday is also EVA-41. :o

Offline Orbiter

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Good morning, B-1021! Nice to see you again.
Attended space missions: STS-114, STS-124, STS-128, STS-135, Atlas V "Curiosity", Delta IV Heavy NROL-15, Atlas V MUOS-2, Delta IV Heavy NROL-37, Falcon 9 CRS-9, Falcon 9 JCSAT-16, Atlas V GOES-R, Falcon 9 SES-11, Falcon Heavy Demo.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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The 45th still haven't published a launch forecast for SES-10, which I take to be another sign that the launch date is not yet solid. Hopefully there'll be a good static fire shortly and things can then firm up.

Online ChrisGebhardt

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Good morning, B-1021! Nice to see you again.

We're now 52mins to the opening of the static fire window for today.
« Last Edit: 03/27/2017 01:07 PM by ChrisGebhardt »

Offline Kaputnik

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The lack of healthy scepticism is worrying me about this launch

What is there to be sceptical about? This first stage is not being reflown? SpaceX and SES are lying?

I have seen concerns that heating during reentry has the possibility of weakening the aluminium structure of the tanks. Presumably SpaceX will have eliminated this and similar concerns during NDT.

Also, reuse puts extra cycles on subsystems which are subject to a lot of stress and lifetime concerns. I'm mainly thinking of the helium system here - not sure if there are others.

This is not to say I think this flight will fail, but I will be holding my breath more than normal until MECO and separation.

Cheers, Martin

Absolutely. First stage reuse has been an accepted part of the future of spaceflight for enough years now that I think some people are forgetting that it has yet to be proven possible. If this launch fails for reasons that are linked to stage life, it could deal a massive blow to the concept of reuse. There is a heck of a lot riding on this one.
Waiting for joy and raptor

Offline Robotbeat

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No it won't. Cycle life isn't some radical new concept. Stages and engines already experience it with acceptance fires and scrubs, etc. if it fails, SpaceX will just try again while fixing the problems. Bezos isn't going to give up, either.

A lot of magical thinking about the idea of reusing stages, here.
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Offline Brian45

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In reading about re-use of a first stage, all I've seen are concerns about the engines, pumps, tanks, etc. ie the "guts" of the rocket. Was there any discussion about the actual structure of the metal tube that holds everything together?

Offline mikelepage

The lack of healthy scepticism is worrying me about this launch

What is there to be sceptical about? This first stage is not being reflown? SpaceX and SES are lying?

I have seen concerns that heating during reentry has the possibility of weakening the aluminium structure of the tanks. Presumably SpaceX will have eliminated this and similar concerns during NDT.

Also, reuse puts extra cycles on subsystems which are subject to a lot of stress and lifetime concerns. I'm mainly thinking of the helium system here - not sure if there are others.

This is not to say I think this flight will fail, but I will be holding my breath more than normal until MECO and separation.

Cheers, Martin

Exactly.  The following is probably a contradiction in terms, but I can't think of a better way to say it:

It seems to me that there are new unknown unknowns with this launch.

We're changing a key variable, so there's the potential for previously unknowable, synergistic (?) effects to wreak havoc with the launch.  Just one of those things that we won't know until we try.  Having the cojones to try it with a multi-million dollar payload is why I admire SpaceX so much.

Online ChrisGebhardt

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I guess we can class this as "documentation" ;D

45th Space Wing updated their header (but forgot to tweet) Falcon 9 SES-10 launch now NET 30th.

From the update thread.  So 45th now says 30th at 1800L window open. That's a large window open shift. 3/27 was window open at 1659L, as was 3/29.  So why an hour shift for a suspected slip to 3/30?
« Last Edit: 03/27/2017 01:58 PM by ChrisGebhardt »

Online ChrisGebhardt

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Isn't just case of 6:00 pm ET = 5:00 pm EDT?

No.  In US, ET is shorthand for EDT and EST; it's not a specific GMT offset indicator.  And the US switched to DST weeks ago, so it's not that, either.  But I've seen 1800L now several places.  So I guess something really changes the window dynamics for 3/30.  Still intriguing.

Offline Johnnyhinbos

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The lack of healthy scepticism is worrying me about this launch

What is there to be sceptical about? This first stage is not being reflown? SpaceX and SES are lying?

I have seen concerns that heating during reentry has the possibility of weakening the aluminium structure of the tanks. Presumably SpaceX will have eliminated this and similar concerns during NDT.

Also, reuse puts extra cycles on subsystems which are subject to a lot of stress and lifetime concerns. I'm mainly thinking of the helium system here - not sure if there are others.

This is not to say I think this flight will fail, but I will be holding my breath more than normal until MECO and separation.

Cheers, Martin

Exactly.  The following is probably a contradiction in terms, but I can't think of a better way to say it:

It seems to me that there are new unknown unknowns with this launch.

We're changing a key variable, so there's the potential for previously unknowable, synergistic (?) effects to wreak havoc with the launch.  Just one of those things that we won't know until we try.  Having the cojones to try it with a multi-million dollar payload is why I admire SpaceX so much.
Although it should be pointed out that SpaceX has retired risk as much as possible - recall that they did five or more full duration static fires of their "life leader" returned booster. This means five or more tanking and "detanking" events, five or more pressurizing subsystem full duration tests, five or more engine ignitions and full thrust engine runs. All, I believe, without any work on the stage.

I'd say they have fairly good faith in the SES-10 booster based on the experiential evidence.

Won't have long to wait to find out now. And yes, I personally am going to be at the edge of my seat...
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Offline Jason Davies

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No sign of venting yet.

Offline mme

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...  Having the cojones to try it with a multi-million dollar payload is why I admire SpaceX so much.
I think SES is the one with the cojones in this particular instance. :)

I also admire SpaceX but I think sometimes we forget that it's their early adopter and continued customers that are putting their money where their mouths are.
Space is not Highlander.  There can, and will, be more than one.

Online Lars-J

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In reading about re-use of a first stage, all I've seen are concerns about the engines, pumps, tanks, etc. ie the "guts" of the rocket. Was there any discussion about the actual structure of the metal tube that holds everything together?

Yes. But quick, let SpaceX know, just in case they forgot about it. ;)

EDIT: (to de-snark a bit) I can't point to specific threads where it has been discussed, but the topic has been talked about. But we simply don't know all the data that SpaceX has to discuss specifics. What we DO KNOW, however, is that landed stages have been extensively tested at McGregor with many cryo propellant load cycles and stage firings. SpaceX appears to be confident in the structure.

See video of such a test here. (note the load testing device on top of the booster)
« Last Edit: 03/27/2017 04:25 PM by Lars-J »

Offline clegg78

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In reading about re-use of a first stage, all I've seen are concerns about the engines, pumps, tanks, etc. ie the "guts" of the rocket. Was there any discussion about the actual structure of the metal tube that holds everything together?

Yes. But quick, let SpaceX know, just in case they forgot about it. ;)

 I agree with the (snarky ) Post by Lars-J - One of the things I find interesting and frustrating about this forum, is how often people think there seem to be no one at SpaceX tasked with simple things like "Can the tanks be reused??"      I get it, they are moving fast but at the same time, there is a lot of money riding on these and they cant accept setbacks right now  (even a reused booster going pop is going to cause a hold on future launches as another investigation would need to happen)
« Last Edit: 03/27/2017 03:52 PM by clegg78 »
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Offline mn

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Nobody thinks SpaceX forgot about the tanks.

But 10 pages of discussion on NSF with lots of technical explanations of what might theoretically happen to the tank and why it will or won't matter would make for interesting reading. I would definitely learn a thing or two. (but obviously not relevant to this specific launch, and it may have already been discussed at length somewhere that I missed).

Online ChrisWilson68

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...  Having the cojones to try it with a multi-million dollar payload is why I admire SpaceX so much.
I think SES is the one with the cojones in this particular instance. :)

I also admire SpaceX but I think sometimes we forget that it's their early adopter and continued customers that are putting their money where their mouths are.

The impact on SES of a failure would be less than the impact on SpaceX.

SES has their satellite insured, and it wouldn't harm their reputation in any way to lose one bird.  Nobody would blame them.  They'd blame SpaceX.  It's SpaceX that risks losing customers, and risks Congress cutting their commercial crew funding if they have a failure of the same launch vehicle that will launch astronauts.

Offline Scylla

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Still doing security sweeps.
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