Author Topic: SpaceX F9 : SES-10 with reuse of CRS-8 Booster SN/1021 : 2017-03-30 : DISCUSSION  (Read 385979 times)

Online cscott

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I'm wondering if the "fate" comment is in respect to either a fairing recovery attempt (first recovered fairing from first reused booster would be epic), or maybe just a first Roomba outing on the ASDS.

Offline gongora

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“Gwynne has promised us parts of the rocket,” Halliwell said. “We want them for the SES board room.”

What Gwynne neglected to point out is there are many ways in which those parts can come to rest on the ASDS. Let's hope they arrive assembled!

If first stage comes anywhere near ASDS then it's a pretty good sign for the primary mission.

There was also this reply from Elon:
Quote
@elonmusk since you have time to answer questions, does this mean you're flying to Cape Canaveral?

Reply from Elon
@ToddGerkens Yeah

Offline mme

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I'm wondering if the "fate" comment is in respect to either a fairing recovery attempt (first recovered fairing from first reused booster would be epic), or maybe just a first Roomba outing on the ASDS.
I'm wondering the same.  The recent comment from one of the software guys about shipping new functionality soon could be related.  The Roomba (almost) definitely has a lot of control software.  But so would any sort of guidance on the returning fairings.
Space is not Highlander.  There can, and will, be more than one.

Offline Brovane

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It is also important to know when to push a schedule and not push a schedule.  Speaking as a Project Manager,  after adjusting a schedule for a complicated technical deployment I would want to bring in a Project end date

But the schedule changes for SES-10 launch have nothing to do, in this case, with any issue to the actual project. It was an external, unrelated, totally decoupled reason (some ULA launch that has nothing to do with SES-10).

SpaceX has already moved a launch to the left in the past. *IF* there is any issue with the booster, they should not anticipate the date. *IF* they are ready to go and the range is free, why wait?

About the issue that people have their own life etc: launches very often scrub or are delayed for various reasons, weather, small issues, etc. It's part of the job. Why would anticipating a launch be any different? They are probably going to be happy!

I will provide a theoretical example from my experience as a Technical Project Manager.

I am scheduling a Core Switch Replacement in a Data-Center.  It is fairly complicated involves a lot of different groups Network Team, Storage Team, Server Team(Linux, Windows), Enterprise Application Team, 3rd Party Application Team, and the DBA Team (Both Oracle and SQL).  As a PM I start discussing dates for an outage window with the team and we decide March 27th is the best date.   As we start putting together the MOP and Enterprise Change Request,  we discover that there is backbone maintenance (Unknown to us) on the 27th.  This will impact connectivity between the two national data centers.  Leadership tells us no go on the 27th, because of the conflict and the backbone maintenance takes priority.  So we move the maintenance two days to the right, March 29th and start working towards that date.  We put in the ECR's, people that need to buy plane tickets and make hotel reservations start getting everything lined.  A couple of days later we discover the backbone maintenance has been canceled, they have to fix a hardware issue on one of the backbone routers before proceeding.  At that point as PM, I would be crazy to try and switch back to the 27th unless there was a really good reason.  As a PM I wouldn't want to put my team through that unless I had absolutely no choice. 
"Look at that! If anybody ever said, "you'll be sitting in a spacecraft naked with a 134-pound backpack on your knees charging it", I'd have said "Aw, get serious". - John Young - Apollo-16

Offline Space Ghost 1962

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It's maddening but this kind of thing continues, on and on, because consequences continue and the only way to deal with them is to reschedule from the infinite well of the "unallocated" future.

You can't "bin pack" "deallocated time". Try working on an automated reservation system (also contract budding systems) some time to learn the hidden issues with such. It's how you get scheduling errors like double commits.

Read up on Len Kleinrock's linear scheduling papers on reservation commits for the underlying theory.

Offline manoweb

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I will provide a theoretical example from my experience as a Technical Project Manager.

I am scheduling a Core Switch Replacement in a Data-Center.  It is fairly complicated involves a lot of different groups Network Team, Storage Team, Server Team(Linux, Windows), Enterprise Application Team, 3rd Party

Do you have few dozens core switch replacements in the backlog? Are core switch replacements a large part of your income or are those just a cost center to support the rest of the organization? Are you in the process to be able to replace such core switches every two to three weeks, maybe reusing old ones...??? In other words, I see very few similarities between your example and the launch of SES-10 and SpaceX's business in general. I am also surprised you described it this way when there are such evident differences - do you not take these into account?

It is now pretty clear the SES-10 launch won't be performed on March 27th 2017, but I would be very surprised to hear that the reason was to not create potential inconvenience to the SpaceX employees and their families.

Offline cppetrie

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The amount of backseat driving and second guessing is stunning. Can we all agree that SpaceX has some of the best in the rocket business running and coordinating their launch attempts? They seem to know what they are doing, and it seems unlikely they need our input or second guessing to improve their flow. If they did, I'd bet they'd PM people with job offers. Just because we don't know/understand all of the factors that influence decisions doesn't mean those factors don't exist. Second guessing and Monday morning rocketeering seem to be human nature, but perhaps we could just be excited outsiders and cheer from the sidelines and stands. Openings on their coaching staff and roster can be found on the SpaceX website.

Offline IntoTheVoid

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... but perhaps we could just be excited outsiders and cheer from the sidelines and stands...

That vast majority of evidence says no.
It's much more like the Tour de France where the spectators sometimes jump into the street and try to run with the bikes.

Offline John Alan

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OCISLY, under tow by Elsbeth III, has left Port Canaveral it seems...  ???

"Webcam Never Named Here"... shows barge is missing...  :o
MarineTraffic.com shows Elsbeth III headed 117 at 3.7 knots... about 5 miles out right now...  ???

Looks like it's right on schedule...  8)

Offline manoweb

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The amount of backseat driving and second guessing is stunning. Can we all agree that SpaceX has some of the best in the rocket business running and coordinating their launch attempts?

Oh I thought this was the "Discussion" thread about SES-10. I thought we were "discussing" the launch date and the possible reasons why this specific launch would be moved left or right. Nobody from either side said what SpaceX should do, we are trying to reason as to *why* they do that. I may disagree with user "Brovane" but I have still learned several things in this discussion. Now, each forum or website has a different take on the amount of meta-talk, maybe an authoritative forum administrator can clarify if this discussion was deemed inappropriate.

You said it. Makes for a lot to sift through in order to find good information.

What about the Updates thread?


Some sources, like SES S.A. themselves, said just recently that if the flight and landing are both successful, they will get some parts of the rocket from SpaceX. I was very surprised by this, meaning that apparently they have decided, even if the landing is again successful, they will not attempt to re-use this stage thrice.


Offline envy887

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Some sources, like SES S.A. themselves, said just recently that if the flight and landing are both successful, they will get some parts of the rocket from SpaceX. I was very surprised by this, meaning that apparently they have decided, even if the landing is again successful, they will not attempt to re-use this stage thrice.

Or they want some parts that have to be replaced anyway before reflight... a couple grid fins, maybe?

Offline gongora

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Some sources, like SES S.A. themselves, said just recently that if the flight and landing are both successful, they will get some parts of the rocket from SpaceX. I was very surprised by this, meaning that apparently they have decided, even if the landing is again successful, they will not attempt to re-use this stage thrice.

There's really no need to reuse them a third time yet.  They should recover more Block 3/4 cores this year than they could possibly use before Block 5 is flying.  Once Block 5 is flying you'd think they'll want to standardize on that fairly quickly.  Flying a Block 3 stage for a third time right now would just be to demonstrate they can do it, it wouldn't really save any time or money.

Offline gongora

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Quote
SAT-MPL-20170108-00002 E S2950
Grant of Authority Effective Date: 03/10/2017
Modification to PDR/PPL
New Skies Satellites B.V.
Nature of Service: Direct to Home Fixed Satellite, Fixed Satellite Service
On March 22, 2017, the Satellite Division reissued the license conditions for the SES-10 space station to specify operations of SES-10 at the
66.9° W.L. orbital location instead of 67° W.L. This relocation was made pursuant to Section 25.117(h)(1) of the Commission's rules and
became effective on March 10, 2017, without further authorization by the Commission.

Online jacqmans

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« Last Edit: 03/26/2017 12:50 PM by Chris Bergin »

Offline Lar

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https://twitter.com/Erdayastronaut/status/843945243502362624

We've got the patch!

<patch image in original post>



We appear to have two patches, what's the story? Which one was issued by whom?  Thanks!
« Last Edit: 03/26/2017 10:17 AM by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Lar

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The amount of backseat driving and second guessing is stunning. Can we all agree that SpaceX has some of the best in the rocket business running and coordinating their launch attempts?

Oh I thought this was the "Discussion" thread about SES-10. I thought we were "discussing" the launch date and the possible reasons why this specific launch would be moved left or right. Nobody from either side said what SpaceX should do, we are trying to reason as to *why* they do that. I may disagree with user "Brovane" but I have still learned several things in this discussion. Now, each forum or website has a different take on the amount of meta-talk, maybe an authoritative forum administrator can clarify if this discussion was deemed inappropriate.

OK. You wanted an opinion? From a mod? Here you go:

As a reader, I was intrigued by the discussion at first, and I learned a bit more about scheduling than I already know.  But then it started to get into beating a dead horse territory and second guessing territory, and I got bored. I've been a PM myself (what a thankless job!!) and I thought Brovane's example was SPOT ON. It fit this perfectly. I would, as a PM, NEVER pull a date 2 days forward at the last minute for little or no apparent benefit and a lot of risk. And, as a reader, I read stuff that looked like second guessing[1]. I find second guessing tiresome in general, and (as a huge SpaceX fan) second guessing SpaceX, who are super innovative and fast moving, REALLY annoying.

As a mod I was tempted to start deleting some posts that were starting to get annoyingly repetitive. This is a discussion thread, not a beat a dead horse thread.  For ME to be tempted to delete stuff? You know I'm a big softie... that should tell you something.

Normally I don't like to talk about mod decision making. It's best that we just act and if we need to talk behind the scenes, we do. But you asked and maybe you and others will take this on board and stop second guessing a bit. Asking questions to seek to understand is great. Even if you ask followups, that's good too. But reasking and not accepting explanations? Not helpful. We expect better of our readers and contributors here.

Finally, be careful what you ask for. Now I'm itching to delete so the next comment that looks deadhorseish[2] or secondguessish[2] might just get aetherised[2][3].

I think it was very clearly explained why this had been thoroughly discussed and needed to be dropped already. Here you go again with another explanation, as requested.

1 - I do a lot of tech writing too. We have a saying .... "communication wasn't did" ... when something isn't understood by one or two folks, it's the reader. But if it's not understood by many readers, it's not the fault of the readers, but of the writer... you may say you weren't second guessing SpaceX, but your words read like you were. To many folks. When called on it, back up and think before you speak again. We want everyone's contributions but we also want NSF to be the highest quality forum out there in this field. Our readers and contributors make it so. Hold up your end, please.
2 - I'm an IBMer. We make up words all the time. We can noun any verb and verb any noun. Deal.
3 - "consigned to the howling ether", i.e. deleted.
« Last Edit: 03/26/2017 10:49 AM by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Lar

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Some sources, like SES S.A. themselves, said just recently that if the flight and landing are both successful, they will get some parts of the rocket from SpaceX. I was very surprised by this, meaning that apparently they have decided, even if the landing is again successful, they will not attempt to re-use this stage thrice.

There's really no need to reuse them a third time yet.  They should recover more Block 3/4 cores this year than they could possibly use before Block 5 is flying.  Once Block 5 is flying you'd think they'll want to standardize on that fairly quickly.  Flying a Block 3 stage for a third time right now would just be to demonstrate they can do it, it wouldn't really save any time or money.

In general I agree. This might be the only Block 3 that gets reused twice. (or 3 times!!! Or more!!!! ) But proving that they can do it ASAP is good for them. AND, if they recycle it faster than last time, even better. So for this specific core, I say reuse it as many times as they can, until the TEL changes so much it can't be done any more...
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online cscott

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https://twitter.com/Erdayastronaut/status/843945243502362624

We've got the patch!

<patch image in original post>



We appear to have two patches, what's the story? Which one was issued by whom?  Thanks!
Usually there's a "booster" patch and a "payload" patch, although I have no specific information in this case.

Offline old_sellsword

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https://twitter.com/Erdayastronaut/status/843945243502362624

We've got the patch!

<patch image in original post>



We appear to have two patches, what's the story? Which one was issued by whom?  Thanks!

The second patch is a fan creation by u/Qeng-Ho on Reddit, but is being posted all over the place without credit.

And the full animation is what makes it great anyways.
« Last Edit: 03/26/2017 01:08 PM by old_sellsword »

Offline shuttlefan

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Clear pad as of an hour ago. Also SFN stream showing no booster vertical.

Cutting it close for Static Fire.

https://www.instagram.com/p/BSGhmh2lRM8/

The have an 8-hour window today. :)

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