Affordable habitats means more Buck Rogers for less money says Bigelow

[Carl G]

This thread will not be dominated by one person spending three posts saying the same thing about how this won't happen, as some sort of commercial oracle.

Discuss the article. We will moderate posts that are not up to the standards of this site.

[Danderman]

Taking Bigelow at his word, X = cheap Soyuz or commercial crew.

Since Soyuz is becoming more expensive as time passes, if we were to trace back to the time when Soyuz WAS cheap, back in the 1990s, then that is when Bigelow presumably should have flown his modules.

There is little evidence that a future "commercial crew" vehicle would have seat costs low enough to warrant a space platform to accommodate passengers or research. The numbers don't add up.

[Elmar Moelzer]

Since Soyuz is becoming more expensive as time passes, if we were to trace back to the time when Soyuz WAS cheap, back in the 1990s, then that is when Bigelow presumably should have flown his modules.
There is little evidence that a future "commercial crew" vehicle would have seat costs low enough to warrant a space platform to accommodate passengers or research. The numbers don't add up.

Bigelow believes he can offer customers 110 m3 of his station for 60 days (more than 8 weeks) for about 50 million, including flight to the station (26 million). That is within the reach of many institutions including some larger universities, definitely within the reach of countries. Bigelow claims to have agreements with 7 nations already.

[yg1968]

Taking Bigelow at his word, X = cheap Soyuz or commercial crew.

Since Soyuz is becoming more expensive as time passes, if we were to trace back to the time when Soyuz WAS cheap, back in the 1990s, then that is when Bigelow presumably should have flown his modules.

There is little evidence that a future "commercial crew" vehicle would have seat costs low enough to warrant a space platform to accommodate passengers or research. The numbers don't add up.

The prize of Soyuz was always for excess seats. I doubt that Soyuz would have been offered for $20M per seat for regular passengers.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Excellent article Yves, thank you.

I'm assuming that technically Bigelow's plans are doable, but having a paying customer is clearly a big unknown.

However, I think there are a couple of differences from the past that perhaps makes these plans more realistic than some previous proposals from earlier decades. First I believe Bigelow will be cheaper and, at least in some respects, better (eg stronger, better shielding). Secondly his habitats will be commercially available. ITAR places some restrictions but on a leasing model I don't think it's a show stopper.

It may still be that there's no market demand for this, but there's previously been no supply so I think there's a decent chance now of finding out if any demand is there. BEAM will help with credibility too.

Actually I can see SpaceX being a customer in a few years. But not clear to me if Bigelow has the funds to complete development, but presumably this is part of why he is keen on NASA involvement?

[Jason Sole]

Got to admit this is very exciting. Very interesting article, thanks!

All the power to Mr Bigelow.

[yg1968]

In my opinion, the module that NASA is most likely to be interested is the BA 330-DS. The fact that FH could be used to ferry commercial crew to a lunar orbit BEO 330-DS is also a big deal as it could mean that commercial companies could be involved in BLEO exploration. We always suspected that FH could be used to ferry crew to BLEO but the fact that SpaceX confirmed this to Bigelow is a big deal.

[JasonAW3]

Is there any way of finding larger versions of the pictures that they had in the article?

I'd like to have a better look at what he has in mind before I say anything about the article.

[yg1968]

Is there any way of finding larger versions of the pictures that they had in the article?

I'd like to have a better look at what he has in mind before I say anything about the article.

There is larger versions of the images on L2. But the images are not otherwise public.

[Space Junkie]

From the article:

Mr. Gold also noted that Bigelow is currently in negotiation with NASA for further activities and is cautiously optimistic that they will be able to make an announcement soon.

This is interesting if true. What near-term "further activities" might they be discussing?

[Avron]

From the article:

Mr. Gold also noted that Bigelow is currently in negotiation with NASA for further activities and is cautiously optimistic that they will be able to make an announcement soon.

This is interesting if true. What near-term "further activities" might they be discussing?

I really wish him and his company luck, someone has to try .. what did they say .. if you build it .. they will come.. who knows it may all just be a dream .. or a nightmare for investors.. for NASA, its just other peoples money

[HIP2BSQRE]

One of the issues with the excess Russian flights was the tourist had to learn Russian and give up 6 months of his/her life for flight preparation.  You gave all that up for $20m+ for approx. 7 days in space. So the price per day was over $4 million plus 1/2 year.  Not many rich people can afford to give up 1/2 a year of time. For the price that you are paying Bigelow - you are getting 60 days.  The price per day now is <$1m a factor of 4 reduction.  The other thing even if you could afford soyoz, you may have to wait years for another flight.  If you are a researcher- what university can wait years before they repeat an experiment? $60m is alot of money to me and you, but to a pharmaceutical company they spend billions per year.  The present conditions really do not allow for alot of private trips to space.  Once commercial space taxis I think things will change.   Now we have 1 space tourist every 2 years or so,  do you think the same thing will happen in 2018-2020?  I think there will more alot more supply which will cause prices to fall and demand to rise....

[Elmar Moelzer]

Didn't Space Adventures claim at some point that they have more interest than they can currently serve?

[QuantumG]

Didn't Space Adventures claim at some point that they have more interest than they can currently serve?

Indeed, and that's always been the case. Last I heard (four years ago) there was two to three times as many Space Adventures customers who have gone through the training as have actually flown on Soyuz.

[Halidon]

I gotta admit, as a SF nerd the Spacecraft Carrier appeals to me.

Great article, Yves. I really look forward to seeing what's announced.

[Lars_J]

I hope no one here expects that Bigelow is actually going to build any of this stuff.

Be prepared to see iterations of these cartoons over the years.

As for "BA-330 being in use", there are no concrete plans today for that to happen.

So how is that any different than all the NASA programs over the last few decades. The BA-330 is in good company, wouldn't you say?

They are clearly in idle mode biding their time until a customer appears. I hope one will - either NASA or commercial.

[411rocket]

Enjoyed reading the artical, waiting for part 2.

Bigelow is building the BEAM for NASA.

I take that this is the demo unit, to be eventually attached to the ISS.
Has anyone heard any estimates, on when this will fly to the ISS?

[Robotbeat]

I hope no one here expects that Bigelow is actually going to build any of this stuff.

Be prepared to see iterations of these cartoons over the years.

As for "BA-330 being in use", there are no concrete plans today for that to happen.

So how is that any different than all the NASA programs over the last few decades. The BA-330 is in good company, wouldn't you say?

They are clearly in idle mode biding their time until a customer appears. I hope one will - either NASA or commercial.

...and, don't forget, a supplier. SpaceX and Boeing (and SNC) haven't come through with a manned launch for CC, yet.

[manboy]

Enjoyed reading the artical, waiting for part 2.

Bigelow is building the BEAM for NASA.

I take that this is the demo unit, to be eventually attached to the ISS.
Has anyone heard any estimates, on when this will fly to the ISS?

On SpaceX CRS-8 (inside the trunk) during summer 2015.

[Danderman]

I hope no one here expects that Bigelow is actually going to build any of this stuff.

Be prepared to see iterations of these cartoons over the years.

As for "BA-330 being in use", there are no concrete plans today for that to happen.

So how is that any different than all the NASA programs over the last few decades. The BA-330 is in good company, wouldn't you say?

Well, there aren't too many NASA programs that have remained in limbo for 10+ years, like the BA orbital space platform.

However, it is true that since the invention of PowerPoint, we have seen a lot of NASA programs come and go.

The issue then becomes do we really want to judge private companies by the same standards as NASA, when it comes to making public proposals?

Anyway, all of this would be overcome by events if BA gets that second NASA contract.