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Author Topic: Predicted vs actual launch rates  (Read 15963 times)

Offline Dalhousie

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Predicted vs actual launch rates
« on: 02/05/2014 08:20 pm »
I am having a discussion elsewhere over whether or Musk/SpaceX oversell their capability.

Facts are always useful, but I am having trouble with the links to predicted launches in past years.  Actual launches are of course a matter of public record.

Thanks
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Offline macpacheco

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Re: Predicted vs actual launch rates
« Reply #1 on: 02/05/2014 08:26 pm »
Quote from: Dalhousie on 02/05/2014 08:20 pm
I am having a discussion elsewhere over whether or Musk/SpaceX oversell their capability.

Facts are always useful, but I am having trouble with the links to predicted launches in past years.  Actual launches are of course a matter of public record.

Thanks
They are ramping up production. F9R production is scaling up still. Process and methods are still being streamlined.
I wouldn't use the last 3 months as predictors of 2014 track record.

But delays happen in the aerospace industry. Space is hard. He made it abundantly clear he wants zero launch failures, delays are infinitely preferable to payloads lost.

We still don't know the reason for the CRS-3 delay. How about we at least wait until that launch before speculating further on this matter. They could launch Orbcomm ahead of CRS-3.
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Offline Dalhousie

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Re: Predicted vs actual launch rates
« Reply #2 on: 02/05/2014 08:44 pm »
I am looking at past claims, not present ones.
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Offline Lars_J

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Re: Predicted vs actual launch rates
« Reply #3 on: 02/05/2014 08:48 pm »

Quote from: Dalhousie on 02/05/2014 08:44 pm
I am looking at past claims, not present ones.

Google is your friend. Use it. You clearly have something specific in mind but are not saying what it is.
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Online Robotbeat

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Re: Predicted vs actual launch rates
« Reply #4 on: 02/05/2014 08:51 pm »
An update on the SpaceX Multiplier??
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Offline IRobot

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Re: Predicted vs actual launch rates
« Reply #5 on: 02/05/2014 08:56 pm »
I think 2014 will be a good gauge of their true capability. Past launches rates are not enough for a future extrapolation.
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Offline hop

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Re: Predicted vs actual launch rates
« Reply #6 on: 02/05/2014 09:09 pm »
Quote from: Dalhousie on 02/05/2014 08:20 pm
I am having a discussion elsewhere over whether or Musk/SpaceX oversell their capability.

Facts are always useful, but I am having trouble with the links to predicted launches in past years.  Actual launches are of course a matter of public record.
If you are talking about other providers, the various launch schedule threads in this forum should give you a pretty decent record.

Using the internet archive wayback machine on various published schedules could also useful, e.g.
http://fpd.gsfc.nasa.gov/launches.html
http://www.nasa.gov/missions/schedule/
http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Launchers/Launch_schedule
http://www.itc.nl/research/products/sensordb/launch_schedule.aspx

To make a meaningful comparison you'd also have to get into whether slips were payload, provider or external factors.

It's noteworthy that most providers don't provide a manifest nearly as far out as SpaceX does.
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Online Robotbeat

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Re: Predicted vs actual launch rates
« Reply #7 on: 02/05/2014 09:10 pm »
NET means No Earlier Than.
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Offline Dalhousie

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Re: Predicted vs actual launch rates
« Reply #8 on: 02/05/2014 10:36 pm »
Quote from: Lars_J on 02/05/2014 08:48 pm

Quote from: Dalhousie on 02/05/2014 08:44 pm
I am looking at past claims, not present ones.

Google is your friend. Use it. You clearly have something specific in mind but are not saying what it is.

I have stated exactly what I want.
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Offline beancounter

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Re: Predicted vs actual launch rates
« Reply #9 on: 02/06/2014 12:34 am »
Quote from: Dalhousie on 02/05/2014 10:36 pm
Quote from: Lars_J on 02/05/2014 08:48 pm

Quote from: Dalhousie on 02/05/2014 08:44 pm
I am looking at past claims, not present ones.

Google is your friend. Use it. You clearly have something specific in mind but are not saying what it is.

I have stated exactly what I want.
Ok so you want to talk about overselling capability.  Well so far SpaceX have delivered the payloads that they've been contracted for with one exception that I know of.  There may have been one other but customers have not deserted SpaceX in 'droves' due to delays as some predicted.
Let's look at capability:
Launch vehicles F1 to F9  to F9v1.1 - increasing capabilities in areas such as avionics, engine arrangements, engine out, etc
Engines- Kestral and Merlin 1 to M1C (and vac) to M1D (and vac) and moving onto Raptor - increasingly capable; Draco to SuperDraco
SpaceCraft -  Dragon Cargo (increasing capability for NASA requirements eg. power capability), onto DragonCrew
Pads - started with 1 now have what 4 in the works
Manufacturing - increasing production efficiencies and capacities
Design - increased capability evidenced by increasing product capability
R&D - GH, GH2, F9R, Raptor, and apparently MCT
Management - increasing capability evidenced by the fact that the company is still in existence and increasing it's customer base.
Funding streams - originally Musk, some VCs, then DoD, and now add NASA and substantial income stream wrt launch customers and some actual launches.
Launches - 2013 they did 3; this forum predicts 8 for 2014 (so far 1 out of 1) but there's an expectation that they could reasonably do more.
Launch failures F9 - none  unless you want to argue about the engine out issue however that's been done to death and the primary payload was successfully delivered.

So what exactly are you on about.  SpaceX hasn't oversold it's capabilities; it's living up to even the wildest expectations and if you doubt that then perhaps you should listen to what SES as a customer had to say about them.  IIRC they used the term 'game-changer'.  Sure they've moved more slowly than hoped for but that's only to be expected in the space business.

Edit:  Add to capability the fact that they are moving toward DoD certification for launching sensitive payloads.  Possibly met the 3 out of 3 successful launch requirements already.
Cheers.
« Last Edit: 02/06/2014 12:36 am by beancounter »
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Offline Avron

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Re: Predicted vs actual launch rates
« Reply #10 on: 02/06/2014 12:54 am »
Quote from: macpacheco on 02/05/2014 08:26 pm
We still don't know the reason for the CRS-3 delay. How about we at least wait until that launch before speculating further on this matter. They could launch Orbcomm ahead of CRS-3.

I don't see that happening, but SpaceX is not communicating..
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Offline Dalhousie

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Re: Predicted vs actual launch rates
« Reply #11 on: 02/06/2014 01:15 am »
Lars:
Quote
You clearly have something specific in mind but are not saying what it is.

No hidden agenda.  Just a request for information

Avron:
Quote
Ok so you want to talk about overselling capability.

Never said they were.  Simply asked for some information.

Avron again
Quote
So what exactly are you on about.

Read my post.  There is no need to be defensive.

Hop
Quote
Using the internet archive wayback machine on various published schedules could also useful...

Finally, someone understands and gives something useful.  Just what I wanted. Thank you.

Edited: fixed attribution and quotes - thank you.
« Last Edit: 02/07/2014 06:37 am by Dalhousie »
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Online Robotbeat

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Re: Predicted vs actual launch rates
« Reply #12 on: 02/06/2014 02:19 am »
Quote from: Dalhousie on 02/06/2014 01:15 am
Robotbeat:
Quote
You clearly have something specific in mind but are not saying what it is.

No hidden agenda.  Just a request for information
...
That was LarsJ, not me. :)
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Offline dcporter

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Re: Predicted vs actual launch rates
« Reply #13 on: 02/06/2014 02:19 am »
Glad you got what you needed. Sorry about the bad behavior, jeeze. Beancounter what gives? The OP didn't even specify a side of the argument. OP: Robotbeat wasn't who said that, he said the jocular bit about the SpaceX Multiplier, which is what we call their endemic schedule slips round these parts.
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Online Robotbeat

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Re: Predicted vs actual launch rates
« Reply #14 on: 02/06/2014 02:23 am »
Hey, I remember that the SpaceX Multiplier had some predictive power! Not just jocular. :)
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Offline Avron

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Re: Predicted vs actual launch rates
« Reply #15 on: 02/06/2014 02:37 am »
Quote from: Dalhousie on 02/06/2014 01:15 am
Robotbeat:
Quote
You clearly have something specific in mind but are not saying what it is.

No hidden agenda.  Just a request for information

Avron:
Quote
Ok so you want to talk about overselling capability.

Never said they were.  Simply asked for some information.

Avron again
Quote
So what exactly are you on about.

Read my post.  There is no need to be defensive.

Hop {quote]Using the internet archive wayback machine on various published schedules could also useful...

Finally, someone understands and gives something useful.  Just what I wanted. Thank you.
[/quote]


say what ?? you sure you have the correct quotes..
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Offline dcporter

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Re: Predicted vs actual launch rates
« Reply #16 on: 02/06/2014 02:37 am »
Jocular as in friendly and generally upbeat. Agreed that the SXM is nicely predictive (for a given phase of the company's operations) and is exactly what the OP is after. ;D
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Offline Joffan

Re: Predicted vs actual launch rates
« Reply #17 on: 02/06/2014 12:44 pm »
Quote from: Dalhousie on 02/05/2014 08:20 pm
I am having a discussion elsewhere over whether or Musk/SpaceX oversell their capability.

Facts are always useful, but I am having trouble with the links to predicted launches in past years.  Actual launches are of course a matter of public record.

Thanks

Dalhousie, how many people have to say something other than you expect before you accept that your vague statement above doesn't clearly specify what you would like to know?

So far we know that you are having trouble with links. Sorry to hear about that. Now, what do you actually want?
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Offline Lar

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Re: Predicted vs actual launch rates
« Reply #18 on: 02/06/2014 01:22 pm »
People, let us all be excellent to each other. And fix quotes.
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Offline edkyle99

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Re: Predicted vs actual launch rates
« Reply #19 on: 02/06/2014 01:35 pm »
Quote from: Dalhousie on 02/05/2014 08:20 pm
I am having a discussion elsewhere over whether or Musk/SpaceX oversell their capability.

Facts are always useful, but I am having trouble with the links to predicted launches in past years.  Actual launches are of course a matter of public record.

Thanks
Here are a couple of early documents that presented lists of planned launches.  As you will see, SpaceX was over-optimistic on the time-line of this early development, but was not too far out of line when it came to annual launch rates that we are seeing with operational launches.

 - Ed Kyle
« Last Edit: 02/06/2014 01:40 pm by edkyle99 »
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Offline Proponent

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Re: Predicted vs actual launch rates
« Reply #20 on: 02/06/2014 02:40 pm »
Quote from: Dalhousie on 02/05/2014 08:20 pm
I am having a discussion elsewhere over whether or Musk/SpaceX oversell their capability.

Facts are always useful, but I am having trouble with the links to predicted launches in past years....

This thread and links therein might be useful.
« Last Edit: 02/06/2014 02:40 pm by Proponent »
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Offline R7

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Re: Predicted vs actual launch rates
« Reply #21 on: 02/06/2014 08:03 pm »
As a therapy for the server outage I did this timeline of what has happened in SpaceX launch manifest and LV price/performance from the beginning of manifest to end of 2008. No time to do more today, will continue later if anyone interested.

edit: Information is from SpaceX pages stored in Internet Archive aka Waybackmachine. The relevant pages are:

pre Feb 10 2007:

http://www.spacex.com/falcon_overview.php had both manifest and LV data

from Feb 10 2007:

http://spacex.com/launch_manifest.php
http://www.spacex.com/falcon1.php
http://www.spacex.com/falcon9.php
http://spacex.com/falcon9_heavy.php

from Apr 29 2011:

Falcon Heavy page drops the "9":
http://spacex.com/falcon_heavy.php

All dates are when the information appears/has changed in the archive, which may have substantial gap to update on the original page. There's almost no changes from Jan 2010 to Jan 2011 which may be due problems/pause in archiving.

disclaimer: I take no responsibility whatsoever, the seal is broken, warranty is void and post may contain errors.

green: price drop / performance increase / date earlier (it has happened!?)
red: price hike / performance drop / date sliding
blue: change (launch site, date format)
bold: new entry

Pre Feb 4 2005:

no launch manifest

Falcon I    Falcon V*
price $6M $12M
200km 28 deg    670 kg 4,200 kg
400km 51 deg580 kg 3,570 kg
700km SSO 430 kg 3,000 kg
GTO 9 deg - 1,250 kg
Escape - 840 kg
"* Numbers down rated prior to completion of testing. Final performance numbers expected to be higher. "
Feb 4 2005:

US Defense Dept (OSD/NRL)  Q1 2005   Falcon I    Vandenberg
US Defense Dept (DARPA)Q2 2005Falcon IMarshall Islands
Malaysia (ATSB) Q4 2005  Falcon I Marshall Islands
Bigelow Aerospace Q2 2006  Falcon V  Vandenberg
 

Falcon I    Falcon V*
price $5.9M $15.8M/$8.9M
200km 28 deg    670 kg 6,020 kg
400km 51 deg580 kg 5,450 kg
700km SSO 430 kg 4,780 kg
GTO 9 deg - 1,920 kg
Escape - 1,200 kg
Sep 3 2005:

US Defense Dept (DARPA)Q3 2005Falcon IMarshall Islands
US Defense Dept (OSD/NRL)   Q4 2005   Falcon I    Vandenberg
Malaysia (ATSB) Q1 2006  Falcon I Marshall Islands
Bigelow Aerospace Q4 2006  Falcon V  Vandenberg
US Air Force$100m thru 2010  Falcon I 
Sep 24 2005:

US Defense Dept (DARPA)Q4 2005Falcon 1Kwajalein
US Defense Dept (OSD/NRL)   Q4 2005   Falcon 1    Vandenberg
Malaysia (ATSB) Q2 2006  Falcon 1 Kwajalein
US GovernmentQ2 2007  Falcon 9 Kwajalein
Bigelow Aerospace Q1 2008  Falcon 9  Kwajalein
US Commercial  Q2 2008  Falcon 1  Vandenberg
MDA Corp.  Q3 2008  Falcon 1  Vandenberg
Swedish Space Corp.  Q4 2008  Falcon 1  Vandenberg
US Air Force$100m thru 2010  Falcon 1  TBD

Falcon I    Falcon 5        Falcon 9               Falcon 9-S5     Falcon 9-S9
price   $6.7M $18M/$9M $27M/$35M $51M$78M
LEO570 kg 4,100 kg 9,300/8,700 kg 16,500 kg 24,750 kg
GTO- 1,050 kg 3,400/3,100 kg 6,400 kg 9,650 kg
Nov 7 2005:

US Defense Dept (DARPA)Q4 2005Falcon 1Kwajalein
US Defense Dept (OSD/NRL)   Q1 2006   Falcon 1    Vandenberg
Malaysia (ATSB) Q2 2006  Falcon 1 Kwajalein
US GovernmentQ2 2007  Falcon 9 Kwajalein
Bigelow Aerospace Q1 2008  Falcon 9  Kwajalein
US Commercial  Q2 2008  Falcon 1  Vandenberg
MDA Corp.  Q3 2008  Falcon 1  Vandenberg
Swedish Space Corp.  Q4 2008  Falcon 1  Vandenberg
US Air Force$100m thru 2010  Falcon 1  TBD
Apr 5 2006:

US Defense Dept (DARPA)Q1 2006Falcon 1Kwajalein
US Defense Dept (OSD/NRL)   Q2 2006   Falcon 1    Vandenberg
Malaysia (ATSB) Q4 2006 Falcon 1 Kwajalein
US GovernmentQ2 2007  Falcon 9 Kwajalein
Bigelow Aerospace Q1 2008  Falcon 9  Kwajalein
US Commercial  Q2 2008  Falcon 1  Vandenberg
MDA Corp.  Q3 2008  Falcon 1  Vandenberg
Swedish Space Corp.  Q4 2008  Falcon 1  Vandenberg
US Air Force$100m thru 2010  Falcon 1  TBD

Falcon 1 flight 1 (DARPA) happened in March 24th but not mentioned in the manifest.
Jul 10 2006:

US Defense Dept (DARPA)Q1 2006Falcon 1Kwajalein
US Defense Dept (DARPA)Q4 2006Falcon 1Kwajalein
US Defense Dept (OSD/NRL)   Q4 2006Falcon 1    Kwajalein
Malaysia (ATSB) Q3 2007 Falcon 1 Kwajalein
US GovernmentQ1 2008 Falcon 9 Kwajalein
SpaceDev Q2 2008  Falcon 1  Vandenberg
MDA Corp. Q2 2008  Falcon 9  Kwajalein
MDA Corp.  Q3 2008  Falcon 1  Vandenberg
Bigelow Aerospace Q4 2008  Falcon 9  Kwajalein
Swedish Space Corp.  Q4 2009 Falcon 1  Vandenberg
US Air Force$100m thru 2010  Falcon 1  TBD
Sep 1 2006:

US Defense Dept (DARPA)Q1 2006Falcon 1Kwajalein
US Defense Dept (DARPA)Q4 2006Falcon 1Kwajalein
US Defense Dept (OSD/NRL)   Q4 2006Falcon 1    Kwajalein
Malaysia (ATSB) Q3 2007 Falcon 1 Kwajalein
US GovernmentQ1 2008Falcon 9 Kwajalein
SpaceDev  Q2 2008  Falcon 1  Vandenberg
MDA Corp.  Q2 2008  Falcon 9  Kwajalein
NASA  Q3 2008  Falcon 9  Kwajalein
MDA Corp.  Q3 2008  Falcon 1  Vandenberg
Bigelow Aerospace Q4 2008  Falcon 9  Kwajalein
NASA Q2 2009  Falcon 9  Kwajalein
NASA  Q2 2009  Falcon 9  Kwajalein
Swedish Space Corp.  Q4 2009 Falcon 1  Vandenberg
US Air Force$100m thru 2010  Falcon 1  TBD
Dec 15 2006:

DARPA/AF Test Launch 1*Q1 2006Falcon 1Kwajalein
DARPA/AF Test Launch 2Q1 2007Falcon 1Kwajalein
US Defense Dept (OSD/NRL)   Q2 2007Falcon 1    Kwajalein
Malaysia (ATSB) Q3 2007 Falcon 1 Kwajalein
US GovernmentQ1 2008Falcon 9 Kwajalein
SpaceDev  Q2 2008  Falcon 1  Vandenberg
MDA Corp.  Q2 2008  Falcon 9  Kwajalein
NASA  Q3 2008  Falcon 9  Kwajalein
MDA Corp.  Q3 2008  Falcon 1  Vandenberg
Bigelow Aerospace Q4 2008  Falcon 9  Kwajalein
NASA  Q2 2009  Falcon 9  Kwajalein
NASA Q3 2009  Falcon 9  Kwajalein
Swedish Space Corp.  Q4 2009 Falcon 1  Vandenberg
US Air Force$100m thru 2010  Falcon 1  TBD

"* Launched March 2006" ... somebody remembered to mention this after eight months.
Feb 10 2007: Site overhaul

FALCON Demo Launch 1*Q1 2006Falcon 1Kwajalein
FALCON Demo Launch 2Q1 2007Falcon 1Kwajalein
OSD/NRL   Q3 2007Falcon 1    Kwajalein
ATSB (Malaysia) Q4 2007 Falcon 1 Kwajalein
US Government (Classified)Q2 2008Falcon 9 Cape/Kwajalein
MDA Corp. (Canada) Q2 2008  Falcon 9  Cape/Kwajalein
NASA - Demo 1 Q3 2008  Falcon 9  Cape/Kwajalein
SpaceDev  Q1 2009  Falcon 1  Vandenberg
NASA - Demo 2 Q2 2009  Falcon 9  Cape/Kwajalein
MDA Corp. (Canada)  Q3 2009  Falcon 1  Vandenberg
NASA - Demo 3 Q3 2009 Falcon 9  Cape/Kwajalein
Swedish Space Corp.  Q4 2009 Falcon 1  Vandenberg
Bigelow Aerospace Q3 2010  Falcon 9  Cape/Kwajalein

"*already completed"
Bigelow free falling and AF contract vanishes.
Falcon 5 and Falcon 9-S5 vanish. Pricing/performance for Falcon 1 and 9 not available.
No pricing for Falcon 9 Heavy, performance LEO 28,000 kg / GTO 12,000 kg
Mar 24 2007

FALCON Demo Launch 2 done on March 21, both 1 & 2 dropped from the manifest.
Apr 28-29 2007   Falcon 9 and Heavy pricing/performance appears, more complicated then before

Falcon 9      Falcon 9 Heavy
LEO $35M $90M
GTO 1 <3500kg/$35M 5000-5500/$55M
GTO 2 3500-4500/$45M 5500-6500/$65M
GTO 3 4500-5000/$55M6500-11500/$90M
LEO mass 9,900 kg  27,500kg
GTO mass 5,070 kg 12,000kg

May 18 2007

Falcon 1    Falcon 1e
price $7M $8.5M 
LEO 9 deg 200km ~475 kg 723 kg
LEO 28.5 deg 200km    ~450 kg 693 kg
SSO 700km ~200kg
 		~430 kg

Performance data from Payload User's Guide. Nobody bothered to put Falcon 1/1e performance numbers on the web page until year later...
May 30 2007

Falcon 9
GTO 28.5 deg 4,900 kg (apparently Kwajalein number but not specified)
Jun 30 2007

Falcon 9
LEO 185km 9 deg (Kwajalein) 10,400kg
LEO 185km 28.5 deg ( CCAFS)   9,900kg
GTO 9 deg (Kwajalein) 5,070kg
GTO 28.5 deg ( CCAFS) 4,900kg

Finally someone bothered to clear up the performance numbers...
Aug 27 2007

Flight 3   Q1 2008Falcon 1    Kwajalein
Malaysia: Razaksat Q1 2008 Falcon 1 Kwajalein
Falcon 9 Demo Flight 1Q4 2008Falcon 9 Cape Canaveral
NASA COTS - Demo 1 Q4 2008 Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
Canada: MDA Corp. Q4 2008 Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
NASA COTS - Demo 2 Q2 2009  Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
SpaceDev  Q3 2009  Falcon 1  Kwajalein
NASA COTS - Demo 3 Q3 2009 Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
Canada: MDA Corp. Q1 2010  Falcon 1  Kwajalein
Swedish Space Corp.  Q1 2010 Falcon 1  Kwajalein
Bigelow Aerospace Q1 2010  Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral

SpaceDev and MDA dropping down to make room for COTS flights. Bigelow got a mystery bump? Falcon 9 from Kwajalein forgotten.
Sep 27 2007

Flight 3   Q1 2008Falcon 1    Kwajalein
Malaysia: Razaksat Q1 2008 Falcon 1 Kwajalein
Falcon 9 Demo Flight 1Q4 2008Falcon 9 Cape Canaveral
NASA COTS - Demo 1 Q4 2008  Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
Canada: MDA Corp. Q4 2008 Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
Avanti Communications: HYLASQ2 2009Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
NASA COTS - Demo 2 Q2 2009  Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
SpaceDev  Q3 2009  Falcon 1  Kwajalein
NASA COTS - Demo 3 Q3 2009 Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
Canada: MDA Corp. Q1 2010  Falcon 1  Kwajalein
Swedish Space Corp.  Q1 2010 Falcon 1  Kwajalein
Bigelow Aerospace Q1 2010  Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
Mar 2 2008

US Government & ATSB  Q2 2008Falcon 1    Kwajalein
ASTB (Malaysia)Q3 2008 Falcon 1 Kwajalein
US GovernmentQ4 2008Falcon 9 Cape Canaveral
MDA Corp. (Canada) 2009Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
Avanti Communications (UK)2009Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
NASA COTS - Demo 1 2009Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
NASA COTS - Demo 2 2009 Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
SpaceDev  2009 Falcon 1  Kwajalein
NASA COTS - Demo 3 2010 Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
MDA Corp. (Canada) 2010 Falcon 1  Kwajalein
Swedish Space Corp.  2010 Falcon 1  Kwajalein
Bigelow Aerospace 2011  Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral

"*Target dates are for hardware arrival at launch site." appears, quarters begin to disappear...
Apr 11 2008

Falcon 1     Falcon 1e
price $7.9M $9.1M
LEO (185km) 420 kg 1010 kg
May 5-12 2008

Falcon 9 Falcon 9 Heavy
LEO $36.75M $94.5M
TLI $46.75 $104.5M
GTO 1<3500kg / $36.75M 5000-5500 / $57.75M
GTO 23500-4500kg / $47.25M5500-6500kg / $68.25M
GTO 34500-5000kg / $57.75M 6500-11500kg / $94.5M
LEO mass (200km) 11,290 kg 29,610 kg
GTO mass 4,640 kg 15,010 kg

Launch site CCAFS, 28.5 deg inclination
Jul 2 2008

US Government & ATSB  Q3 2008Falcon 1    Kwajalein
ASTB (Malaysia)Q3 2008 Falcon 1 Kwajalein
US GovernmentQ4 2008Falcon 9 Cape Canaveral
MDA Corp. (Canada) 2009Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
Avanti Communications (UK)2009Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
NASA COTS - Demo 1 2009Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
NASA COTS - Demo 2 2009 Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
SpaceDev  2009 Falcon 1  Kwajalein
NASA COTS - Demo 3 2010 Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
MDA Corp. (Canada) 2010 Falcon 1  Kwajalein
Swedish Space Corp.  2010 Falcon 1  Kwajalein
Bigelow Aerospace 2011  Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
Aug 3 2008

US Government & ATSB (Falcon 1 flight 3) done, dropped from the list
Aug 20 2008

Falcon 9
LEO mass (200 km): 12,500 kg
Oct 5 2008

ASTB (Malaysia)Q4 2008 Falcon 1 Kwajalein
Falcon 9 Maiden FlightQ4 2008Falcon 9 Cape Canaveral
MDA Corp. (Canada) 2009Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
Avanti Communications (UK)2009Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
NASA COTS - Demo 1 2009Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
NASA COTS - Demo 2 2009 Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
SpaceDev  2009 Falcon 1  Kwajalein
NASA COTS - Demo 3 2010 Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
MDA Corp. (Canada) 2010 Falcon 1  Kwajalein
Swedish Space Corp.  2010 Falcon 1  Kwajalein
Bigelow Aerospace 2011  Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
Oct 26 2008

Falcon 9 Maiden FlightQ4 2008Falcon 9 Cape Canaveral
ASTB (Malaysia)2009Falcon 1 Kwajalein
MDA Corp. (Canada) 2009Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
Avanti Communications (UK)2009Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
NASA COTS - Demo 1 2009Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
NASA COTS - Demo 2 2009 Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
SpaceDev  2009 Falcon 1  Kwajalein
NASA COTS - Demo 3 2010 Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
MDA Corp. (Canada) 2010 Falcon 1  Kwajalein
Swedish Space Corp.  2010 Falcon 1  Kwajalein
Bigelow Aerospace 2011  Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
Dec 2 2008

Falcon 9 Maiden FlightQ4 2008Falcon 9 Cape Canaveral
ASTB (Malaysia)2009Falcon 1 Kwajalein
MDA Corp. (Canada) 2009Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
Avanti Communications (UK)2009Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
NASA COTS - Demo 1 2009Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
NASA COTS - Demo 2 2009 Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
SpaceDev  2009 Falcon 1  Kwajalein
NASA COTS - Demo 3 2010 Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
MDA Corp. (Canada) 2010 Falcon 1  Kwajalein
Swedish Space Corp.  2010 Falcon 1  Kwajalein
DragonLab Mission 1 2010 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
Bigelow Aerospace 2011  Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
DragonLab Mission 2 2011 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral

edit: some increased clarity.
« Last Edit: 02/09/2014 06:16 pm by R7 »
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Offline beancounter

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Re: Predicted vs actual launch rates
« Reply #22 on: 02/07/2014 05:32 am »
Quote from: dcporter on 02/06/2014 02:19 am
Glad you got what you needed. Sorry about the bad behavior, jeeze. Beancounter what gives? The OP didn't even specify a side of the argument. OP: Robotbeat wasn't who said that, he said the jocular bit about the SpaceX Multiplier, which is what we call their endemic schedule slips round these parts.

Nothing gives.  I was pointing out SpaceX as they had evolved capability.  My point was that IMO they hadn't oversold their capability which was being considered.  That's all.  Nothing sinister or otherwise.  I wasn't discussing proposed launches or whether or not SpaceX had met their launch timetables which they haven't anyway but capability in the various ways in which I saw it relating to their business.
Cheers.
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Offline Dalhousie

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Re: Predicted vs actual launch rates
« Reply #23 on: 02/07/2014 06:38 am »
Quote from: edkyle99 on 02/06/2014 01:35 pm
Quote from: Dalhousie on 02/05/2014 08:20 pm
I am having a discussion elsewhere over whether or Musk/SpaceX oversell their capability.

Facts are always useful, but I am having trouble with the links to predicted launches in past years.  Actual launches are of course a matter of public record.

Thanks
Here are a couple of early documents that presented lists of planned launches.  As you will see, SpaceX was over-optimistic on the time-line of this early development, but was not too far out of line when it came to annual launch rates that we are seeing with operational launches.

 - Ed Kyle

Thank you Ed, the last had some of what I need. Much appreciated.
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Offline R7

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Re: Predicted vs actual launch rates
« Reply #24 on: 02/07/2014 03:01 pm »
The manifest saga continues, end of 2008 to end of 2009:

disclaimer: may contain errors

green: price drop / performance increase / date earlier (it has happened!?)
red: price hike / performance drop / date sliding
blue: change (launch site, date format)
bold: new entry

Dec 16 2008

Falcon 9 Maiden FlightQ4 2008Falcon 9 Cape Canaveral
ASTB (Malaysia)2009Falcon 1 Kwajalein
MDA Corp. (Canada) 2009Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
Avanti Communications (UK)2009Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
NASA COTS - Demo 1 2009F9/Dragon  Cape Canaveral
NASA COTS - Demo 2 2009 F9/Dragon  Cape Canaveral
SpaceDev  2009 Falcon 1  Kwajalein
NASA COTS - Demo 3 2010 F9/Dragon  Cape Canaveral
MDA Corp. (Canada) 2010 Falcon 1  Kwajalein
Swedish Space Corp.  2010 Falcon 1  Kwajalein
DragonLab Mission 1 2010 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
Bigelow Aerospace 2011  Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
DragonLab Mission 2 2011 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral

Jan 22 2009

Falcon 9 Maiden FlightQ4 2008**   Falcon 9    Cape Canaveral
ASTB (Malaysia)2009Falcon 1 Kwajalein
MDA Corp. (Canada) 2009Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
Avanti Communications (UK)2009Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
NASA COTS - Demo 1 2009F9/Dragon  Cape Canaveral
NASA COTS - Demo 2 2009 F9/Dragon  Cape Canaveral
SpaceDev  2009 Falcon 1  Kwajalein
NASA COTS - Demo 3 2010 F9/Dragon  Cape Canaveral
MDA Corp. (Canada) 2010 Falcon 1  Kwajalein
Swedish Space Corp.  2010 Falcon 1  Kwajalein
DragonLab Mission 1 2010 F9/Dragon    Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 1 2010 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
Bigelow Aerospace 2011  Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
DragonLab Mission 2 2011 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 2 2011 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 3 2012 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 4 2012 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 5 2013 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 6 2013 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 7 2013 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 8 2014 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 9 2014 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 10 2014 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 11 2015 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 12    2015 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral

"**Vehicle integrated at Cape, Dec 30, 2008. Flight pending, 2009"
CRS missions show up
Feb 16 2009

Falcon 9 Maiden FlightQ4 2008**   Falcon 9    Cape Canaveral
ASTB (Malaysia)2009Falcon 1 Kwajalein
MDA Corp. (Canada) 2009Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
Avanti Communications (UK)2009Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
NASA COTS - Demo 1 2009F9/Dragon  Cape Canaveral
SpaceDev  2009 Falcon 1  Kwajalein
NASA COTS - Demo 2 2010 F9/Dragon  Cape Canaveral
NASA COTS - Demo 3 2010 F9/Dragon  Cape Canaveral
MDA Corp. (Canada) 2010 Falcon 1  Kwajalein
Swedish Space Corp.  2010 Falcon 1  Kwajalein
DragonLab Mission 1 2010 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 1 2010 F9/Dragon    Cape Canaveral
Bigelow Aerospace 2011  Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
DragonLab Mission 2 2011 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 2 2011 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 3 2012 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 4 2012 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 5 2013 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 6 2013 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 7 2013 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 8 2014 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 9 2014 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 10 2014 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 11 2015 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 12    2015 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
Feb 27 2009

Falcon 9 Falcon 9 Heavy
LEO $36.75M $94.5M
TLI $46.75 $104.5M
GTO 1<3500kg / $36.75M 5000-5500 / $57.75M
GTO 23500-4500kg / $47.25M5500-6500kg / $68.25M
GTO 34500-5000kg / $57.75M 6500-11500kg / $94.5M
LEO mass (200km) 10,450 kg 29,610 kg
GTO mass 4,540 kg 15,010 kg

Mar 15 2009

ASTB (Malaysia)2009Falcon 1 Kwajalein
Falcon 9 Maiden Flight2009  Falcon 9    Cape Canaveral
NASA COTS - Demo 1 2009F9/Dragon  Cape Canaveral
Avanti Communications (UK)2009Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
MDA Corp. (Canada) 2010Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
NASA COTS - Demo 2 2010 F9/Dragon  Cape Canaveral
Falcon 1e Maiden Flight  2010 Falcon 1e  Kwajalein
NASA COTS - Demo 3 2010 F9/Dragon  Cape Canaveral
DragonLab Mission 1 2010 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 1 2010 F9/Dragon    Cape Canaveral
Swedish Space Corp.  2010 Falcon 1e  Kwajalein
Bigelow Aerospace 2011  Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
DragonLab Mission 2 2011 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 2 2011 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 3 2012 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 4 2012 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 5 2013 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 6 2013 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 7 2013 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 8 2014 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 9 2014 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 10 2014 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 11 2015 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 12    2015 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral

MDA Falcon 1 and SpaceDev disappear, Swedish Space Corp. changes to 1e
Mar 21 2009

Falcon 9 new performance data:

CCAFS Kwajalein
LEO 200km 10,450 kg    8560 kg (90 deg polar)
GTO 4,540 kg 4,680 kg
dV to GEO (1500m/s)   3,600 kg 4,500 kg
Apr 3-20 2009

Pricing data for all vehicle disappears, will be "posted shortly".
Falcon 9 dV to GEO performance data disappears.
Jul 12 2009

ASTB (Malaysia)2009Falcon 1 Kwajalein
Falcon 9 Maiden Flight2009   Falcon 9    Cape Canaveral
NASA COTS - Demo 1 2009F9/Dragon  Cape Canaveral
MDA Corp. (Canada) 2010Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
NASA COTS - Demo 2 2010 F9/Dragon  Cape Canaveral
Falcon 1e Maiden Flight  2010 Falcon 1e  Kwajalein
NASA COTS - Demo 3 2010 F9/Dragon  Cape Canaveral
DragonLab Mission 1 2010 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 1 2010 F9/Dragon    Cape Canaveral
Swedish Space Corp.  2010 Falcon 1e  Kwajalein
Bigelow Aerospace 2011  Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
DragonLab Mission 2 2011 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 2 2011 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 3 2012 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 4 2012 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
CONAE (Argentina) 2012 Falcon 9 Vandenberg*
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 5 2013 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 6 2013 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 7 2013 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
CONAE (Argentina) 2013 Falcon 9 Vandenberg*
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 8 2014 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 9 2014 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 10 2014 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 11 2015 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 12    2015 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral

Avanti Communications (UK) vanishes.
"* Vandenberg or Kwajalein, depending on range availability"
Jul 27 2009

Falcon 9 Maiden Flight2009   Falcon 9    Cape Canaveral
NASA COTS - Demo 1 2010F9/Dragon  Cape Canaveral
NASA COTS - Demo 2 2010 F9/Dragon  Cape Canaveral
NASA COTS - Demo 3 2010 F9/Dragon  Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 1 2010 F9/Dragon    Cape Canaveral
Falcon 1e Maiden Flight  2010 Falcon 1e  Kwajalein
MDA Corp. (Canada) 2010Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
Bigelow Aerospace 2011  Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 2 2011 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
DragonLab Mission 1 2011 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
Swedish Space Corp.  2011 Falcon 1e  Kwajalein
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 3 2012 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 4 2012 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
DragonLab Mission 2 2012 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
CONAE (Argentina) 2012 Falcon 9 Vandenberg*
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 5 2013 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 6 2013 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 7 2013 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
CONAE (Argentina) 2013 Falcon 9 Vandenberg*
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 8 2014 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 9 2014 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 10 2014 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 11 2015 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 12    2015 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral

ATSB flown Jul 14
Lots of reshuffling
Aug 1-9 2009

Falcon 1e LEO 900 kg. All "2009 prices published shortly" texts vanish. No new data on prices/performance/manifest until early

2010, pause in archiving?

..and now to watch Sotchi opening!
« Last Edit: 02/09/2014 06:19 pm by R7 »
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Offline R7

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Re: Predicted vs actual launch rates
« Reply #25 on: 02/07/2014 09:19 pm »
Los voyages de la manifesto Jan 2010 - Jan 2012

disclaimer: may contain errors

green: price drop / performance increase / date earlier (it has happened!?)
red: price hike / performance drop / date sliding
blue: change (launch site, date format)
bold: new entry

Nothing on Falcon 1 9 Heavy during entire year?!

Jan 2 2010

Falcon 1     Falcon 1e
price $8.9M $10.5M
LEO (185km) Kwajalein 420 kg 1010 kg

Falcon 9
LEO (s/c <80% capacity)   $44M
LEO (s/c >80% capacity)   $49.5M
GTO (s/c<3,000 kg)$44M
GTO $49.5M 

Falcon 9 Inaugural Flight2009   Falcon 9    Cape Canaveral
NASA COTS - Demo 1 2010F9/Dragon  Cape Canaveral
NASA COTS - Demo 2 2010 F9/Dragon  Cape Canaveral
NASA COTS - Demo 3 2010 F9/Dragon  Cape Canaveral
Falcon 1e Inaugural Flight  2010 Falcon 1e  Kwajalein
MDA Corp. (Canada) 2010Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
ORBCOMM  2010-2014 Falcon 1e  Kwajalein
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 1 2011 F9/Dragon    Cape Canaveral
Bigelow Aerospace 2011  Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 2 2011 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
DragonLab Mission 1 2011 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 3 2012 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 4 2012 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
DragonLab Mission 2 2012 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
CONAE (Argentina) 2012 Falcon 9 Vandenberg*
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 5 2013 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 6 2013 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 7 2013 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
CONAE (Argentina) 2013 Falcon 9Vandenberg*
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 8 2014 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 9 2014 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 10 2014 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
Astrium  2014 Falcon 1e  Kwajalein
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 11 2015 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 12    2015 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral

Swedish Space Crop. vanishes.
Jan 3 2011

Falcon 1 vanishes.
Falcon 1e LEO (185km) 1010kg / $10.9M

Falcon 9
LEO (s/c <80% capacity)   $49.9M
LEO (s/c >80% capacity)   $56M
GTO (s/c<3,000 kg)$49.9M
GTO (s/c up to 4,680kg) $56M 

Still notion of F9s from Kwajalein...


NASA COTS - Demo 1 2010F9/Dragon  Cape Canaveral
NASA COTS - Demo 2 2011 F9/Dragon  Cape Canaveral
NASA COTS - Demo 3 2011 F9/Dragon  Cape Canaveral
Falcon 1e Inaugural Test Flight  2011 Falcon 1e  Kwajalein
ORBCOMM  2011-2014 Falcon 1e  Kwajalein
MDA Corp. (Canada) 2011Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 1 2011 F9/Dragon    Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 2 2011 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
DragonLab Mission 1 2012 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 3 2012 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 4 2012 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
CONAE (Argentina) 2012 Falcon 9 Vandenberg*
Spacecom (Israel) 2012 Falcon 9 Cape Canaveral*
DragonLab Mission 2 2013 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 5 2013 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 6 2013 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 7 2013 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
CONAE (Argentina) 2013 Falcon 9 Vandenberg*
NSPO (Taiwan)  2013Falcon 1e  Kwajalein
Spacesystems/Loral 2014 Falcon 9 Cape Canaveral*
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 8 2014 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 9 2014 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 10 2014 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
Astrium(Europe)  2014 Falcon 1e  Kwajalein
Bigelow Aerospace 2014  Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 11 2015 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 12    2015 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
Iridium 2015-2017 Falcon 9 Vandenberg

Bigelow drops three years.
Falcon 9 Inaugural Flight done last year  June 4, 2010.
COTS 1 done last year  December 8 2010, still on the manifest.
Apr 29 2011

Falcon 9 price info simplified to $54M - $59M

Falcon 9 Heavy LEO 53,000kg $80M - $125M

NASA COTS - Demo 2 2011 F9/Dragon  Cape Canaveral
NASA COTS - Demo 3 2011 F9/Dragon  Cape Canaveral
ORBCOMM  2011-2014 Multiple  Cape Canaveral
MDA Corp. (Canada) 2011Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 1 2011 F9/Dragon    Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 2 2012 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 3 2012 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 4 2012 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
Falcon Heavy Demo Flight  2012 Falcon Heavy Vandenberg
SES (Europe) 2013 Falcon 9 Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 5 2013 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 6 2013 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
DragonLab Mission 1 2013 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 7 2013 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
CONAE (Argentina) two flights 2013 Falcon 9 Vandenberg*
NSPO (Taiwan)  2013Falcon 9  Vandenberg
Spacecom (Israel) 2014 Falcon 9 Cape Canaveral*
Spacesystems/Loral 2014 Falcon 9 Cape Canaveral*
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 8 2014 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 9 2014 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 10 2014 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
Astrium(Europe)  2014 Falcon 1e  Kwajalein
Bigelow Aerospace 2014  Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
DragonLab Mission 2 2014 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
SES (Europe) 2015 Falcon 9 Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 11 2015 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 12    2015 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
Iridium 2015-2017 Falcon 9 Vandenberg

Falcon 1e Inaugural Flight vanishes.
ORBCOMM, NSPO switches vehicle
CONAE two items combined to one line, one slipping a year.
May 18 2011

NASA COTS - Demo 2 2011 F9/Dragon  Cape Canaveral
NASA COTS - Demo 3 2011 F9/Dragon  Cape Canaveral
ORBCOMM  2011-2014 Multiple  Cape Canaveral
MDA Corp. (Canada) 2011Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 1 2011 F9/Dragon    Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 2 2012 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 3 2012 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 4 2012 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
Falcon Heavy Demo Flight  2012 Falcon Heavy Vandenberg
SES (Europe) 2013 Falcon 9 Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 5 2013 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 6 2013 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
DragonLab Mission 1 2013 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 7 2013 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NSPO (Taiwan)  2013Falcon 9  Vandenberg
Spacecom (Israel) 2014 Falcon 9 Cape Canaveral*
Spacesystems/Loral 2014 Falcon 9 Cape Canaveral*
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 8 2014 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 9 2014 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 10 2014 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
Astrium(Europe)  2014 Falcon 1e  Kwajalein
Bigelow Aerospace 2014  Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
CONAE (Argentina) 2014 Falcon 9 Vandenberg*
DragonLab Mission 2 2014 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
SES (Europe) 2015 Falcon 9 Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 11 2015 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 12    2015 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
CONAE (Argentina) 2015 Falcon 9 Vandenberg*
Iridium 2015-2017 Falcon 9 Vandenberg

CONAE flights split
Jun 17 2011


NASA COTS - Demo 2 2011 F9/Dragon  Cape Canaveral
NASA COTS - Demo 3 2011 F9/Dragon  Cape Canaveral
ORBCOMM  2011-2014 Multiple  Cape Canaveral
MDA Corp. (Canada) 2011Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 1 2011 F9/Dragon    Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 2 2012 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 3 2012 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 4 2012 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
Falcon Heavy Demo Flight  2012 Falcon Heavy Vandenberg
SES (Europe) 2013 Falcon 9 Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 5 2013 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 6 2013 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
DragonLab Mission 1 2013 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
Thaicom (Thailand) 2013 Falcon 9 Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 7 2013 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NSPO (Taiwan)  2013Falcon 9  Vandenberg
Spacecom (Israel) 2014 Falcon 9 Cape Canaveral*
Spacesystems/Loral 2014 Falcon 9 Cape Canaveral*
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 8 2014 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 9 2014 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 10 2014 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
Astrium(Europe)  2014 Falcon 1e  Kwajalein
Bigelow Aerospace 2014  Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
CONAE (Argentina) 2014 Falcon 9 Vandenberg*
DragonLab Mission 2 2014 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
SES (Europe) 2015 Falcon 9 Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 11 2015 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 12    2015 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
CONAE (Argentina) 2015 Falcon 9 Vandenberg*
Iridium 2015-2017 Falcon 9 Vandenberg


Jan 18 2012


NASA COTS 2/3 2011 F9/Dragon  Cape Canaveral
ORBCOMM  2012-2014 Multiple  Cape Canaveral
MDA Corp. (Canada) 2012Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 1 2012 F9/Dragon    Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 2 2012 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
Falcon Heavy Demo Flight  2012 Falcon Heavy Vandenberg
SES (Europe) 2013 Falcon 9 Cape Canaveral
Thaicom (Thailand) 2013 Falcon 9 Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 3 2013 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 4 2013 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NSPO (Taiwan)  2013Falcon 9  Vandenberg
DragonLab Mission 1 2014 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 5 2014 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 6 2014 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 7 2014 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
Spacesystems/Loral 2014 Falcon 9 Cape Canaveral*
CONAE (Argentina) 2014 Falcon 9 Vandenberg*
Spacecom (Israel) 2015 Falcon 9 Cape Canaveral*
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 8 2015 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 9 2015 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 10 2015 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
Astrium(Europe)  2015 Falcon 1e  Kwajalein
Bigelow Aerospace 2015  Falcon 9  Cape Canaveral
DragonLab Mission 2 2015 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
SES (Europe) 2015 Falcon 9 Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 11 2015 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS - Flight 12    2015 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral
CONAE (Argentina) 2015 Falcon 9 Vandenberg*
Iridium - Flight 1 2015 Falcon 9 Vandenberg
Iridium - Flight 22015 Falcon 9 Vandenberg
Iridium - Flight 32015 Falcon 9 Vandenberg
Iridium - Flight 42016 Falcon 9 Vandenberg
Iridium - Flight 52016 Falcon 9 Vandenberg
Iridium - Flight 62016 Falcon 9 Vandenberg
Iridium - Flight 72017 Falcon 9 Vandenberg
Iridium - Flight 82017 Falcon 9 Vandenberg

COTS 2 and 3 combined.
Iridium flights specified.

« Last Edit: 02/09/2014 06:21 pm by R7 »
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Offline Llian Rhydderch

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Re: Predicted vs actual launch rates
« Reply #26 on: 02/09/2014 04:07 am »
Great bit of research, R7.  Thanks for doing that for everyone here.

One minor request:  if you have URLs for the various sources you used, and might add those by the data, that would make this the goto resource for SpaceX' historical launch plans for all time.  If you don't have those, that's cool.  Appreciate the work you did in any case.
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Offline Lar

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Re: Predicted vs actual launch rates
« Reply #27 on: 02/09/2014 04:33 am »
Quote from: Llian Rhydderch on 02/09/2014 04:07 am
Great bit of research, R7.  Thanks for doing that for everyone here.

One minor request:  if you have URLs for the various sources you used, and might add those by the data, that would make this the goto resource for SpaceX' historical launch plans for all time.  If you don't have those, that's cool.  Appreciate the work you did in any case.

Second the thanks/kudos. I think R7 said it was just wayback settings but I agree giving the URL each time would be useful if it wasn't too much trouble.
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Offline MikeAtkinson

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Re: Predicted vs actual launch rates
« Reply #28 on: 02/09/2014 09:52 am »
Thanks R7.

One minor improvement would be to convert the prices into constant dollars by adjusting for inflation (although which inflation rate to use would be an issue).
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Offline go4mars

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Re: Predicted vs actual launch rates
« Reply #29 on: 02/09/2014 12:47 pm »
Quote from: MikeAtkinson on 02/09/2014 09:52 am
Thanks R7.

One minor improvement would be to convert the prices into constant dollars by adjusting for inflation (although which inflation rate to use would be an issue).
"shadowstats CPI".
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Offline Jcc

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Re: Predicted vs actual launch rates
« Reply #30 on: 02/09/2014 12:51 pm »
Something to consider... Up to the first flight of F91.1 Spacex had a buit-in disincentive to fly their manifest on schedule, in that they knew the F91.0 was suboptimal in terms of build efficiency and would not advance reusability work. Now that disincentive goes away, as long as they test reusability on most flights, and start reuse soon. With reuse, the rest of the manifest becomes cheaper to fly and more profitable, with exception of missions that require expendable use, in which case they can be priced higher.
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Offline R7

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Re: Predicted vs actual launch rates
« Reply #31 on: 02/09/2014 06:32 pm »
Thanks guys, glad you find the posts useful!

Quote from: Llian Rhydderch on 02/09/2014 04:07 am
One minor request:  if you have URLs for the various sources you used, and might add those by the data, that would make this the goto resource for SpaceX' historical launch plans for all time.

After consulting with Chris I'm not going to add links to every item change but I added information on the first post where the data is from (archived SpaceX manifest/LV info pages in Waybackmachine, no sources other than those).

Due to lack of scripting-fu the "research methodology" is crude brute force ie. just clicking the archived pages forward, looking for changes using Mark I Eyeball and then copy/paste tables and edit the changes into it.

Quote from: MikeAtkinson on 02/09/2014 09:52 am
One minor improvement would be to convert the prices into constant dollars by adjusting for inflation (although which inflation rate to use would be an issue).

Not a bad idea but for now going to just grab the information from archive as is and put it to more readable form here for anyone to do whatever analysis they prefer more quickly (Waybackmachine is slooooow).

edit: If anyone spots any blatant errors in the tables please PM.
« Last Edit: 02/09/2014 06:40 pm by R7 »
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Online Robotbeat

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Re: Predicted vs actual launch rates
« Reply #32 on: 02/11/2014 08:22 pm »
Quote from: go4mars on 02/09/2014 12:47 pm
Quote from: MikeAtkinson on 02/09/2014 09:52 am
Thanks R7.

One minor improvement would be to convert the prices into constant dollars by adjusting for inflation (although which inflation rate to use would be an issue).
"shadowstats CPI".
LOL.
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To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0
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