POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - F9 SECOND STAGE

[dglow]

This is one in a family of polls asking: what is SpaceX likely to accomplish in 2014? The poll you’re currently viewing addresses the Falcon 9 Second Stage.

Other polls cover Dragon, Grasshopper, Falcon 9 First Stage, Falcon Heavy, and Miscellaneous items, including new launch facilities, future vehicles, and potential partnerships.

DRAGON:  http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33824
F9 FIRST STAGE:  http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33825
F9 SECOND STAGE:  this poll
FALCON HEAVY:  http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33828
GRASSHOPPER:  http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33823
MISCELLANEOUS:  http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33827

The initial discussion about these polls took place here: http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33759
For voting on SpaceX’s 2014 launch count, see this poll: http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33571


Voting Details
• You may select multiple options in this poll; choose all which apply
• Events occurring on Dec 31 local time will count
• Poll closes Jan 31

[guckyfan]

I selected none of these. They are busy enough without working on second stage recovery this year.

Maybe 2016.

[dglow]

I selected none of these. They are busy enough without working on second stage recovery this year.

Maybe 2016.

Voted the same. Would love to see progress on this in 2015, but it's unlikely this year IMO.

[Falcon H]

There is no way that SpaceX can finish the first stage, and do the second stage in the same year.

I voted for none of these. 

[rockinghorse]

I think that they will try to do some crazy controlled re-entry attempts, without much hope for success, in order to gather as much data as possible.

[meekGee]

Well, to reenter the second stage, it's going to be a new version of the stage. 
But still, the odds of this second stage 1.1 appearing this year are not zero.

[mheney]

I'm in for "None of these" as well - depending on how many of their other milestones they hit in 2014, you might start to see stage 2 events in 2015.  Of course, I'd love to be proved spectacularly wrong ...

[Lar]

I see them maybe doing some rudimentary[1] stuff... fitting legs, applying some PICA-X and trying some reentries... doesn't have to be the SAME team that's doing S1 work.  So I voted for those.  But I doubt they would do more than gather data, so didn't vote for any of the successes....  (that includes not expecting they would even splashdown intact much less land or refly)

NONE of these is the safe way to vote but I've been wildly optimistic in all the other polls so why stop now?

1 - compared to how far along they are on S1, this stuff is rudimentary

[Robotbeat]

We've seen basically nothing about second stage recovery for a long time. I voted none.

[Tass]

I voted for most of them, then I noticed it said second stage and changed my vote.

None of these.

[Elmar Moelzer]

I selected none of these. They are busy enough without working on second stage recovery this year.

Maybe 2016.

Yeah, I am afraid that is what will happen. But then, I will be more than satisfied if I get to see a first stage RTLS this year.

[schaban]

voted 1,3 & 4; with a caveat: it depends on SpaceX modifying 2nd stage. It appears to me that current 2nd stage can't survive long enough for re-entry attempt.

However, development of 2nd stage is independent from other SpaceX projects, as long as connection interfaces stay the same. And I see no reason for them to be changed.

Anyway, 2nd stage team have time to concentrate on extending its lifespan.

SpaceX definitely will try new 2nd stage tweaks on every flight. I doubt that they would go as far as adding legs and/or other equipment this year, but I think they will prolong 2nd stage life long enough that is could be operational during re-entry. After that, add some heat protection will almost guarantee re-entry survival. Turn and restart wiil permit survivable splashdown.

Yes, pure speculation, but I think more reasonable then recovering any part of FH this year...

[AncientU]

zip, zilch, nada...
(please let me be wrong)

[MTom]

I think that they will try to do some crazy controlled re-entry attempts, without much hope for success, in order to gather as much data as possible.

I could imagine the same.
For example a reentry attempt with a heat shield. No burn of the Merlin engine after leaving LEO. Similar to Dragon reentry (of course, without parachutes).

Question is: How "simple" is to adapt the necessary F9R-developments from the first stage and from Dragon?

[Chris Bergin]

Official request for an answer also sent on this too.....I honestly don't know as of right now.

[oiorionsbelt]

I went with attempt recovery.
 SpaceX likely has a small team working just this issue. In much the same way that Grasshopper has only 25 people working on it, second stage reuse may have 5 people working on it. There have been numerous opinions expressed here over the years along the lines of....They have enough on their plate already, X will be put off until they are done with Y and Z. Whereas I think they are working multiple fronts simultaneously.

[Lars_J]

I voted none of the above. 2nd stage reuse is years away, I think.

[Mader Levap]

Second stage recovery/reuse in any shape or form? In 2014? Forget it.

[AncientU]

Official request for an answer also sent on this too.....I honestly don't know as of right now.

Not fair using actual 'knowledge' -- you might even be ruled OT.

[Kabloona]

I voted "none of the above" and will go further and say I think it's unlikely S2 recovery will be pursued due to the performance hit and diminishing returns (as compared to S1 recovery).