Author Topic: DISCUSS: SpaceX Accomplishments in 2014 Poll (Read 10801 times)

dglow · « **on:** 01/09/2014 10:40 am »

^{The polls which resulted from this discussion can be found here:

DRAGON: http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33824
F9 FIRST STAGE: http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33825
F9 SECOND STAGE: http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33826
FALCON HEAVY: http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33828
GRASSHOPPER: http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33823
MISCELLANEOUS: http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33827}

As we venture into 2014 SpaceX weighs on the mind. One launch down... how many more will this year see? A very active thread exists for debating and voting on just this: http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33571.

Yet, as many here know, much of what SpaceX may attempt this year cannot be quantified by 'launch count' alone. Following discussion from a previous thread it seemed a good idea to assemble a poll with this in mind.

Lar looked into what we could and couldn't do with the forum software, then assembled a long list of potential accomplishments, integrating feedback from many others on the previous thread. Below is what we've come up with.

Some details:
• As currently composed, the list will generate six different polls, one for each of the following categories:
Grasshopper 2, F9 1st Stage, F9 2nd Stage, Dragon, Falcon Heavy, and Other.
• Voters will be able to choose one or more options. Pessimists and realists will have a 'none of these' option.
• Voting will begin no later than Jan 15 and close Jan 31.

SpaceX Accomplishments Poll 2014

= GRASSHOPPER 2 =

In 2014, the Grasshopper 2 test vehicle will…

g1. fly from McGregor
g2. fly from New Mexico
g3. go supersonic and land intact
g4. none of these

= F9 1ST STAGE =

In 2014, a Falcon 9 first stage will…

f1. splashdown intact
f2. fly with legs
f3. extend legs in flight
f4. extend legs and splashdown intact
f5. land at launch site
f6. land downrange
f7. fly again (stage reuse)
f8. none of these

= F9 2ND STAGE =

In 2014, a Falcon 9 second stage will…

s1. attempt recovery
s2. fly with legs
s3. re-enter the atmosphere intact
s4. splashdown intact
s5. land at launch site
s6. land downrange
s7. fly again (stage reuse)
s8. none of these

= DRAGON =

In 2014, a Dragon capsule will...

d1. successfully abort from pad
d2. successfully abort during flight (MaxQ)
d3. fly with humans aboard
d4. none of these

= FALCON HEAVY =

In 2014, a Falcon Heavy rocket will...

h1. be seen
h2. be tested at McGregor
h3. arrive at VAFB
h4. go vertical at VAFB (pad fit)
h5. static fire at VAFB

h6. launch
h7. use cross feed

h8. attempt side core recovery
h9. land side core at launch site

h10. attempt center core recovery
h11. land center core downrange
h12. land center core at launch site

h13. none of these

= OTHER =

In 2014, SpaceX will...

o1. reveal Dragon 2
o2. describe Raptor in significant detail
o3. describe MCT in significant detail

In 2014…

o4. Boeing will announce CST-100 to fly on a SpaceX launch vehicle
o5. Sierra Nevada will announce DreamChaser to fly on a SpaceX launch vehicle

o6. none of these

Please review and provide your additions, subtractions, thoughts and feedback.

guckyfan · « **Reply #1 on:** 01/09/2014 11:46 am »

Looks very comprehensive and complete. Thanks for that.

Just one question. Why is "reveal Dragon 2" in the "other" section?

As a side remark it seems to me that anything on second stage recovery is premature in 2014. They are really busy enough without that but that's just me. So why not include it in the poll.

Ben the Space Brit · « **Reply #2 on:** 01/09/2014 12:25 pm »

My votes?

g3 - Grasshopper-2 flies supersonic and lands
f4 - The Falcon-9 core extends its legs and splashes down intact
s8 - No reusable second stage hardware will appear in a flight
d2 - The max-q abort test will be carried out on Crewed Dragon
h2 - Falcon Heavy 01 will be tested at McGregor and might be shipped to Vandenberg but won't be seen on pad
o1 - Dragon 2 will be unveiled

MikeAtkinson · « **Reply #3 on:** 01/09/2014 12:30 pm »

A couple of other questions in the other section:

- SpaceX will reveal significant details of another in-space element (EDS, hab, propellant depot, etc).
- Another company will announce the use of Merlin 1D in their launch vehicle.

Maybe also a poll on where the other launch site will be - but its probably going to be Texas.

pospa · « **Reply #4 on:** 01/09/2014 02:09 pm »

What about to add one item to =OTHER= :

o7. SpX will break ground for infrastructure of the new Texas launch site

Elmar Moelzer · « **Reply #5 on:** 01/09/2014 02:18 pm »

g3 - Grasshopper-2 flies supersonic and lands
f5 - First stage will land at launch site.
s8 - No reusable second stage hardware will appear in a flight
d2 - The max-q abort test will be carried out on Crewed Dragon
h5 - Just because I am too cautious to believe they will get FH flying this year, but I still think they will get close.
o1 - Dragon 2 will be unveiled

Mongo62 · « **Reply #6 on:** 01/09/2014 02:31 pm »

g3. Grasshopper 2 test vehicle will go supersonic and land intact
f5. Falcon 9 first stage will land at launch site
d1. Dragon capsule will successfully abort from pad
h6. Falcon Heavy rocket will launch
o1. SpaceX will reveal Dragon 2
o3. SpaceX will describe MCT in significant detail

rcoppola · « **Reply #7 on:** 01/09/2014 04:04 pm »

Another subsection would be Pad 39A.

This is an incredible important endeavor as it will support their crew service offerings.

dglow · « **Reply #8 on:** 01/09/2014 04:07 pm »

Quote from: rcoppola on 01/09/2014 04:04 pm

Another subsection would be Pad 39A.

This is an incredible important endeavor as it will support their crew service offerings.

Sure, makes sense. Give some examples of options you'd want to see.

Falcon H · « **Reply #9 on:** 01/09/2014 06:53 pm »

My votes:

g3. go supersonic and land intact.
f5. land at launch site.
s8. none of these.
d2. abort during maxQ
h6. launch.
o1. reveal Dragon2
o2. describe Raptor in great detail.
o3. describe MCT in great detail.

As you can see, I am very optimistic about 2014

.

M129K · « **Reply #10 on:** 01/09/2014 06:59 pm »

Predictions:

g? (I never paid attention to Grasshopper so no opinion on that).
f1.
s8. I have little confidence in upper stage reuse.
d2.
h2, we'll get to see and hear it roar.
I expect details about Dragon 2 and Raptor, and hopefully about MCT. I don't think SNC will fly with Falcon 9, I see even Ariane 5 to be more likely than Falcon 9, and CST-100 probably won't fly on the vehicle of a competitor.

Lar · « **Reply #11 on:** 01/09/2014 07:01 pm »

As a note, there will be a series of polls created. This thread is to gather ideas/consensus on what the polls will contain. You don't need to post "my votes" ... I guess you CAN, but you'll get to vote, soon.

A tip of the hat to Chris B for enabling my testing, he made me a mod briefly (be afraid, be very afraid) but I didn't touch any mod buttons, I just created and destroyed some polls to check out how multiple choice will work.

DJPledger · « **Reply #12 on:** 01/09/2014 07:19 pm »

Add another item to the other category.

o8. SpaceX details plans for a scaled up version of Raptor of >F-1 thrust for MCT launcher.

AJW · « **Reply #13 on:** 01/09/2014 07:56 pm »

f4. extend legs and splashdown intact

I would either update this item or add a new item for 'controlled hover over water' which I think would be a requirement before they are allowed to attempt a ground landing.

Another item might be to do a divert test over water to show the ability to abort a landing into the water before vectoring to a landing pad.

guckyfan · « **Reply #14 on:** 01/09/2014 08:03 pm »

Quote from: AJW on 01/09/2014 07:56 pm

f4. extend legs and splashdown intact

I would either update this item or add a new item for 'controlled hover over water' which I think would be a requirement before they are allowed to attempt a ground landing.

F9R cannot hover. The engine is too strong for that.

ehan_light · « **Reply #15 on:** 01/09/2014 08:07 pm »

Quote from: Lar on 01/09/2014 07:01 pm

As a note, there will be a series of polls created. This thread is to gather ideas/consensus on what the polls will contain. You don't need to post "my votes" ... I guess you CAN, but you'll get to vote, soon.
[...]

An other possible category: EELV qualification for SpaceX

e0   no qualification in 2014
e1   SpaceX gets qualified in 2014 (and can compete for those launch contracts)
e2   SpaceX gets qualified in 2014 and can compete for more than currently expected 14 US government launches.

And there is as well the aspect of the announced block purchase of up to 36 cores. Will this block buy go unchanged forward or will the block end up smaller?
How will things look if SpaceX launched >6 times in 2014 without any major failure? This could eventually mean that SpaceX can compete earlier for the more delicate/expensive payloads than the US government agencies expected - therefore the block buy for ULA could get smaller than so far announced.

(And with a second east side pad operational in ~2016 SpaceX could then transform as example LC-40 to allow for vertical satellite integration. And then the question will become: How will this effect ULA? Can they get their cost enough down or will they drop ether the Delta IV or Atlas V? (Obviously not so soon both because the government likes redundancy and competition.))

butters · « **Reply #16 on:** 01/09/2014 08:32 pm »

I think this will be the year for first stage recovery, but not for Dragon 2 in-flight abort or FH launch. Pad abort will happen though. I don't think they'll refly a first stage in 2014, but a stage recovered in 2014 may be reflown in 2015. Working through the manifest and demonstrating first stage recovery seem to be the obvious top priorities from a business perspective. FH can wait, and unfortunately, so can Dragon 2. The four manifested CRS missions, plus the pad abort, will be enough of a challenge for the Dragon side of the operation.

neoforce · « **Reply #17 on:** 01/09/2014 09:22 pm »

For Grasshopper, I would add something about turn around time. Not sure how to word this, but maybe something like this:

g5 grasshopper fastest turn around time between flights of same vehicle: more than 5 weeks
g6 grasshopper fastest turn around time between flights of same vehicle: more than 3 weeks and up to 5 weeks
g7 grasshopper fastest turn around time between flights of same vehicle: more than 1 week and up to 3 weeks
g8 grasshopper fastest turn around time between flights of same vehicle: less than a week

with multiple voting that wording is cumbersome... not sure if i'm super fan boi optimistic do I select all of these? Or just G8? I leave it to you if you think of better wording.

But I'd love to see a poll question because I've been wondering if they might use Grasshopper to test quick turnaround in 2014. So far the fastest turn around has been about 7 weeks, but if they are talking about an hour from rollout to launch on a full up F9, they can surely push that current processing envelope for grasshopper and I wonder what others think.

Lourens · « **Reply #18 on:** 01/15/2014 05:39 am »

I think the wording is fine, the super fan boi would select g8 only. You could write

g5 grasshopper fastest turn around time more than 5 weeks
g6 grasshopper fastest turn around time up to 5 weeks
g7 grasshopper fastest turn around time up to 3 weeks
g8 grasshopper fastest turn around time less than a week

and then super fan boi would select g6, g7 and g8. You could also vote inconsistently for g5 in combination with the others. But I think your way is clearer.

s1. "attempt recovery" is vague, what if they attempt to survive reentry but don't attach legs or thrusters so it cannot be recovered? Does that count? Perhaps "Attempt any of the other options, whether successfully or not"?

h7. has already been ruled out for the first flight IIRC, but if people want to vote for it anyway...

h8./h10. would landing it in the water and towing it back to shore count, even if it cannot be reused after having been in the water?

o2./o3. is asking for trouble. What's "significant detail"? Given that we have vacuum thrust, propellants and combustion cycle, what other details about Raptor would we expect? As for MCT, perhaps the following at least: approximate size (a picture with some indication of scale is enough), engine configuration, and basic mission architecture in the form of Earth-Mars transit time, Mars dwell time, Mars-Earth transit time, and whether it stays in space or lands on one or both planets or not.

I like DJPledger's o8., the scaled up Raptor-powered Falcon. I'd want to see some indication of overall scale (total liftoff mass, or a picture with comparison to F9), number of stages, and the number and type of engines on each stage. If MCT is somehow an integral part of this rocket, then the presentation of that would count for both I'd say.

And a suggestion about timing: The poll runs on UTC (that's what the forums run on) and the start of the mission at T+00:00 counts. So, if an F9 launches with legs on December 31st, 2014 at 23:45 UTC, and the first stage lands at the launch site on January 1st, 2015 at 00:23, then that counts as 2014 and is part of the poll. If T+00.00 occurs 15 minutes later at exactly 00:00:00 UTC then it counts as 2015. Just to avoid even more discussion about this topic.

dglow · « **Reply #19 on:** 01/15/2014 07:48 am »

Great points, Lourens. I've tweaked the wording and added others' suggestions. Revised lists are below. Regarding time, let's use this: any relevant event occurs which during 2014 local time counts.

This is the final chance to suggest changes. I'll post the polls later today.

SpaceX Accomplishments 2014

= GRASSHOPPER 2 =

In 2014, the Grasshopper 2 test vehicle will…

g1. fly from McGregor
g2. fly from New Mexico
g3. go supersonic and land intact
g4. none of these

g5. fly twice in less than 1 week
g6. fly twice in between 1 and 3 weeks
g7. fly twice in between 3 and 5 weeks
g8. fly twice in no less than 5 weeks

= F9 1ST STAGE =

In 2014, a Falcon 9 first stage will…

f1. splashdown intact
f2. fly with legs
f3. extend legs in flight
f4. extend legs and splashdown intact
f5. land at launch site
f6. land downrange
f7. fly again (stage reuse)
f8. none of these

= F9 2ND STAGE =

In 2014, a Falcon 9 second stage will…

s1. attempt any return/recovery
s2. fly with legs
s3. re-enter the atmosphere intact
s4. splashdown intact
s5. land at launch site
s6. land downrange
s7. fly again (stage reuse)
s8. none of these

= DRAGON =

In 2014, a Dragon capsule will...

d1. successfully abort from pad
d2. successfully abort during flight (MaxQ)
d3. fly with humans aboard
d4. be revealed as ‘Dragon 2’
d5. none of these

= FALCON HEAVY =

In 2014, a Falcon Heavy rocket will...

h1. be seen
h2. be tested at McGregor
h3. arrive at VAFB
h4. go vertical at VAFB (pad fit)
h5. static fire at VAFB

h6. launch
h7. use cross feed

h8. attempt any side core recovery
h9. land side core at launch site

h10. attempt any center core recovery
h11. land center core downrange
h12. land center core at launch site

h13. none of these

= OTHER =

In 2014, SpaceX will...

o1. break ground on a Texas launch site
o2. break ground on Pad 39-A renovations

o3. achieve EELV qualification

o4. describe Raptor in greater detail
o5. announce a Raptor with thrust > F-1

o6. describe MCT in greater detail
o7. announce another space element (space hab, prop depot, etc.)

o8. become the launch vehicle provider for CST-100
o9. become the launch vehicle provider for DreamChaser
o10. become the engine provider for another company's launch vehicle

o11. none of these