Introducing Firefly Space Systems

[Crispy]

Everything in the Firefly piece is as accurate as I can make it, and I had multiple follow-up conversations with the Firefly folks to make sure the piece was factual (especially the layman's explanation of how an aerospike engine works). If there are any inaccuracies and misunderstandings, I'm extremely interested in hearing about them so that I can fix them!

You know what, I just copy and pasted the article into a new window and started going through to do exactly that. And I found that there were hardly any errors I could spot. I thought you'd misunderstood Specific Impulse, but you got it. I apologise for overstating the case. It's an excellent article

[lee_ars]

Thanks, Crispy I try as hard as I can to get stuff like this right and also keep it accessible!

FWIW, my Isp explanation comes from this story on the proposed F-1B. When I was at MSFC researching the piece, I asked R.H. Coates (lead propulsion engineer for the SLS Advanced Development Office) to write me up a quick primer on Isp that would make sense to someone who isn't an engineer, and he came through marvelously. I included it pretty much verbatim in that piece, and I've referred to it whenever I've have to write about Isp in subsequent pieces

[Beittil]

Do you have more images of your visit with Firefly btw that can be published?

Also, (more general question) is there more known about where they will launch from? The article states they intend to launch within two years, but shouldn't that mean there has to be some construction work going on somewhere?

[lee_ars]

Do you have more images of your visit with Firefly btw that can be published?

Also, (more general question) is there more known about where they will launch from? The article states they intend to launch within two years, but shouldn't that mean there has to be some construction work going on somewhere?

I took about 200 pix—pretty normal for a story like this—but the ones that came out the best are the ones I ran. All the rest are variations on the ones in the article.

The company hasn't settled on any single launch site yet. As of September, they were considering a bunch of different places.

(edit - grammar, derp)

[Silversheep2011]

More coverage from Ars Technica: http://arstechnica.com/science/2014/11/firefly-space-systems-charges-full-speed-toward-low-earth-orbit/1/

Everything in the Firefly piece is as accurate as I can make it, and I had multiple follow-up conversations with the Firefly folks to make sure the piece was factual (especially the layman's explanation of how an aerospike engine works). If there are any inaccuracies and misunderstandings, I'm extremely interested in hearing about them so that I can fix them!

This a great enjoyable article.   well done.

I'm curious on the topic of autogenously pressurized mentioned in the articles. Not to much in the way of specifics seems to be hinted at.

- Was any 'Tankage pressure' ratings discussed ?
- And how does that compare with the pressures used in the 'Tankage' of conventional turbopump assemblies?

[breadfan]

I'm curious why Thomas Markusic and the other SpaceX expats think they can do more in a new company than at SpaceX - he seems pretty passionate about the low mass market. I'm sure theres an interesting story there, he's obviously very intelligent and capable.

[Beittil]

I guess an important part of it is that the small sat market just isn't the focus of SpaceX! Falcon 1 was intended for the market Firefly Alpha is supposed to server, but was discontinued in favor of Falcon 9... with that move SpaceX definitely said goodbye to the small sat market and I guess Markusic and pals saw fit to jump into the gap that left.

[ChrisWilson68]

I guess an important part of it is that the small sat market just isn't the focus of SpaceX! Falcon 1 was intended for the market Firefly Alpha is supposed to server, but was discontinued in favor of Falcon 9... with that move SpaceX definitely said goodbye to the small sat market and I guess Markusic and pals saw fit to jump into the gap that left.

Another possibility is that they chafed under Elon's rules and wanted to do things their own way and realized the barriers to entry are much lower for smallsat launchers.

[edkyle99]

I guess an important part of it is that the small sat market just isn't the focus of SpaceX! Falcon 1 was intended for the market Firefly Alpha is supposed to server, but was discontinued in favor of Falcon 9... with that move SpaceX definitely said goodbye to the small sat market and I guess Markusic and pals saw fit to jump into the gap that left.

Each Orbcomm satellite that Falcon 9 has launched only weighs 160-170-ish kg, so it would appear that SpaceX has not said goodby to small-sats.

 - Ed Kyle

[guckyfan]

I guess an important part of it is that the small sat market just isn't the focus of SpaceX! Falcon 1 was intended for the market Firefly Alpha is supposed to server, but was discontinued in favor of Falcon 9... with that move SpaceX definitely said goodbye to the small sat market and I guess Markusic and pals saw fit to jump into the gap that left.

Each Orbcomm satellite that Falcon 9 has launched only weighs 160-170-ish kg, so it would appear that SpaceX has not said goodby to small-sats.

 - Ed Kyle

Yes, but those come in bundles. Bundles too big for small launchers to handle. And smallsat launches too expensive to launch them one by one.

[WmThomas]

Nice article, Lee-ars.

[ChrisWilson68]

I guess an important part of it is that the small sat market just isn't the focus of SpaceX! Falcon 1 was intended for the market Firefly Alpha is supposed to server, but was discontinued in favor of Falcon 9... with that move SpaceX definitely said goodbye to the small sat market and I guess Markusic and pals saw fit to jump into the gap that left.

Each Orbcomm satellite that Falcon 9 has launched only weighs 160-170-ish kg, so it would appear that SpaceX has not said goodby to small-sats.

 - Ed Kyle

Yes, but those come in bundles. Bundles too big for small launchers to handle. And smallsat launches too expensive to launch them one by one.

And that really is the fundamental problem for Firefly and all other small launchers: the scale they need to justify their fixed costs is only going to be available with large constellations, and those large constellations will be cheaper to launch bundled on larger launchers.

[dcporter]

and realized the barriers to entry are much lower for smallsat launchers.

That was SpaceX's strategy too. 

[ChrisWilson68]

and realized the barriers to entry are much lower for smallsat launchers.

That was SpaceX's strategy too.  8)

Yeah, and it worked for them because they quickly moved into larger launchers.  They never had to try to make money just on Falcon 1.  When SpaceX did it, there were no low-cost players in the mid-to-large launcher market.  Now that SpaceX occupies that ground, a new competitor in the mid-to-large launcher market would have to beat SpaceX in some way, which will be really hard.

Which leaves Firefly and the others stuck in the small launcher market with nowhere to go from there.

[Beittil]

If Firefly succesfully manages to set up shop in the smallsat market and manages to generate enough revenue there I don't see any hold back with developing an upgrade of their technology for the higher end market.

That way they will always have something to fall back onto, but trying to enter the market as start-up targeting SpaceX's market right now would be suicide I guess.

[gospacex]

If Firefly succesfully manages to set up shop in the smallsat market and manages to generate enough revenue there I don't see any hold back with developing an upgrade of their technology for the higher end market.

Other than Elon being able to resurrect Falcon-1 any time and bankrupt them?

[Beittil]

I guess that he could in theory, I wouldn't ever expect a move like that though. Also, why would he? Musk wants to go bigger and bolder, not smaller. If anything he should welcome newcommers like Firefly, he helped spark them!

[Jarnis]

If Firefly succesfully manages to set up shop in the smallsat market and manages to generate enough revenue there I don't see any hold back with developing an upgrade of their technology for the higher end market.

Other than Elon being able to resurrect Falcon-1 any time and bankrupt them?

That's silly talk.

- SpaceX has their plate full with bigger things.
- Falcon-1 used older versions of Merlin, upgrading the design to latest Merlin 1D is not free nor instant.

Oh, SpaceX may compete, but I'd expect it to be with "lets stack a lot of these small sats on a F9R or as secondaries on a bigger FH mission", not adding back a small launcher. That also means there will always be market for small payloads with requirements that prevent them to be candidates for a launch on a larger vehicle.

[R7]

I guess an important part of it is that the small sat market just isn't the focus of SpaceX! Falcon 1 was intended for the market Firefly Alpha is supposed to server, but was discontinued in favor of Falcon 9... with that move SpaceX definitely said goodbye to the small sat market and I guess Markusic and pals saw fit to jump into the gap that left.

Each Orbcomm satellite that Falcon 9 has launched only weighs 160-170-ish kg, so it would appear that SpaceX has not said goodby to small-sats.

 - Ed Kyle

Yes, but those come in bundles. Bundles too big for small launchers to handle. And smallsat launches too expensive to launch them one by one.

And that really is the fundamental problem for Firefly and all other small launchers: the scale they need to justify their fixed costs is only going to be available with large constellations, and those large constellations will be cheaper to launch bundled on larger launchers.

Umm, no. Orbcomm deal appears cheap because the original deal with SpaceX was supposed to use F1. That didn't happen and they renegotiated change for two F9s. One F9 is now listed at $61.2M, Orbcomm is paying $42.6M for two launches, original F1 contract was valued at $46.6M . Save for the delay a good deal for Orbcomm but no so much for SpaceX. Had Firefly been around and flying in time SpaceX would probably preferred to have the contract transferred to them if possible, now it's just a net loss nuisance.

[Senex]

Yeah, and it worked for them because they quickly moved into larger launchers.  They never had to try to make money just on Falcon 1.  When SpaceX did it, there were no low-cost players in the mid-to-large launcher market.  Now that SpaceX occupies that ground, a new competitor in the mid-to-large launcher market would have to beat SpaceX in some way, which will be really hard.

Which leaves Firefly and the others stuck in the small launcher market with nowhere to go from there.

I think there is a market for dedicated launch, for both commercial and military small satellites.  Spacex moved up to larger launches almost immediately because there was a lucrative niche there waiting for someone offering lower prices. 

This is a very young industry — be prepared to be surprised.  I can imagine a number of potential markets for a low-cost, quick-response launch service (Not including military).  It may well be possible to grow a very large business based on even just small payloads. 

Beyond that, I predict the "killer app" will something we haven't thought of yet.