Introducing Firefly Space Systems

[TrevorMonty]

Here is one blooming launch market for Firefly.

http://www.parabolicarc.com/2014/07/07/report-nano-microsat-market-increase-150-percent-10-years/

[ChrisWilson68]

Here is one blooming launch market for Firefly.

http://www.parabolicarc.com/2014/07/07/report-nano-microsat-market-increase-150-percent-10-years/

I've seen this many times in various tech industries.  A "market research" firm puts out a press release talking about the huge potential in some industry segment.  It's light on firm numbers, but all full of excitement.  Then, toward the end it invites the reader to contact the firm to buy the full report.

The reports are bought by those who are in that market segment or want to be in that market segment, and used in their pitches to investors.  "See?  Market research firm Blah, Blah, and Blah predicts 5,237% growth each of the next ten years in our market segment.  We plan to capture 50% market share, but even in the worst case that we only capture 5%, we'll have revenue of $87 billion in five years, growing to $8.2 trillion in ten years."

It's just the way the game is played.  In truth, this market research firm knows nothing of substance about the future of the nano satellite market that people who follow this forum closely don't already know.  Which is, basically, that it's growing, and there's a potential for it to get large, but nobody really knows how large or how quickly.

[QuantumG]

In truth, this market research firm knows nothing of substance about the future of the nano satellite market that people who follow this forum closely don't already know.

Quite a lot of what people know in this forum has real commercial value if packaged correctly. It's the packaging that makes it a product.

[ChrisWilson68]

In truth, this market research firm knows nothing of substance about the future of the nano satellite market that people who follow this forum closely don't already know.

Quite a lot of what people know in this forum has real commercial value if packaged correctly. It's the packaging that makes it a product.

Yeah, you have a point there.

Still, from what I've seen in some other similar reports in different tech sectors, the reports are somewhat biased toward a rosy projection for the growth of the market, to make them attractive to those in that market.  They mention both pros and cons, but emphasize the pros more and use numeric projections to imply a degree of certainty that is greater than the actual data warrants.  I don't know if this report does the same, though.

I just wanted to sound a note of caution that the writers of these reports have a built-in incentive to tailor them both to sound more certain than the underlying data implies and to lean toward the more optimistic possibilities.  That's how they sell these reports.

[TrevorMonty]

A few companies are working on propulsion systems for cubesats and nanosats. These will give the satellites wings allowing them to venture a lot further a field.
Also in development are ion drive nanosat carriers. These can deliver a flock of nanosats to BLEO.
I can see Universities being able to do low cost planetary missions with flock of nanosats.

[ChrisWilson68]

A few companies are working on propulsion systems for cubesats and nanosats. These will give the satellites wings allowing them to venture a lot further a field.
Also in development are ion drive nanosat carriers. These can deliver a flock of nanosats to BLEO.
I can see Universities being able to do low cost planetary missions with flock of nanosats.

Very exciting!  But large numbers of nanosats in need of rides to orbit doesn't necessarily mean a market for a launcher of small payloads.  If the number of nanosats is large, then it's worth putting lots of them on a bigger rocket and paying less per nanosat that way.

[TrevorMonty]

For BLEO missions they are better off ride sharing to GTO. Does anybody have examples of ride share costs?.

[john smith 19]

For BLEO missions they are better off ride sharing to GTO. Does anybody have examples of ride share costs?.

this has come up before. IIRC the sort of figures something like a secondary payload on Ariane 5 was about $100k and I think that was the sort of range the Russians charged for one of the re-purposed ICBM to launch a bunch of university payloads. I dimly recall a paper at one of the smallsat conferences in Colarado?

That cost would have been at least per secondary, not sure if it was per Kg (which would have been high).

JPL looked at this for a way to do a cheap, fast turnaround Mars (or other planetary) probe by dropping off at GTO.

AIUI they're looking to take over the market segment of the Falcon 1 (roughly).

On the upside some plug nozzles have finally flown and there is some flight data available. The "plug cluster" concept has been around since the 60's (how long before we have to start prefixing that with "19" ?) and obviously the question is how good is their core engine and (just as importantly) how good is their CFD modelling of the flows (which are complex). 

BTW All truncated aerospike nozzles I'm aware of have a "base bleed" of a few % of main flow (the exhaust of the gas generators seemed to be the common approach) as at SL the wake is "closed" and forms a low pressure bubble below atmospheric pressure, which AIUI would tend to "suck" the vehicle to the stand.

Now the $64m question. What will people pay for this and have they raised enough cash to do the development plan?

Keep in mind in the US people can already get such a payload on a Pegasus but the number of times its flown suggests the price is above what even the US market will bear (and outside the US people have a bunch of cheaper options putting it at the bottom of most of their lists anyway).

The cold lessons of the space launch business is that it is riddled with clever alternatives to the TSTO ELV.

So far none have got to flight status. 

Which suggests that the people who sign the checks (with one current exception) have not been convinced that clever is better.

[simonbp]

But this isn't a "clever alternative to the TSTO ELV"; it's just a clever version of a smallish TSTO ELV. The heavy version ("Beta") would have similar performance to F9R. And they say in the video that it is "designed with reusability in mind", presumably with first stage recover similar to F9R.

Overall, Firefly seems to be trying to out-SpaceX SpaceX (at least in the launcher business). More power to them.

[TrevorMonty]

But this isn't a "clever alternative to the TSTO ELV"; it's just a clever version of a smallish TSTO ELV. The heavy version ("Beta") would have similar performance to F9R. And they say in the video that it is "designed with reusability in mind", presumably with first stage recover similar to F9R.

Overall, Firefly seems to be trying to out-SpaceX SpaceX (at least in the launcher business). More power to them.

The Firefly heavy will be around 1000kg (1mt) while F9R is +10,000kg (+10mt).

[Prober]

Any rumors about a Bezo's investment in Firefly?    Has a lot of look and feel of a Bezo's startup...hmmm

[wolfpack]

Coming from a start-up is not necessarily a good indicator that you're a good open minded engineer.  That's all.

And coming from an "OldSpace" company shows that you are a good open minded engineer?

I'm not saying that good open minded engineers don't exist at "OldSpace" companies, just that by virtue of how startups work that you have to be at least open minded.  As to the rest, as with any company, YMMV.

I've done start-ups. To survive at a startup you need to be a self-sufficient engineer. There is no-one to step in and solve a problem for you if you can't do it yourself. You need to be more of a "jack-of-all-trades" vs an expert in one particular thing.

A successful startup takes a simple idea and builds a business around it. It's the business building part that is hard.

[Jim]

Sure, but your choices are not limited to "newspace" and "oldspace"...

If your tech leadership is in place, there are plenty places to get recruits from.  Also, young ones in oldSpace companies may not be broken yet.  They've seen a few useful things, and some may be frustrated at how these companies are led.

It takes time to ruin a soul...

Who says anybody from oldspace is "broken" or "ruined"?   I have seen more "broken" or "ruined" people from nuspace.

Also, rather take somebody whose actual work made it into orbit (or at least flight)  than somebody who has flailed around working at multiple nuspace companies.

Edit/CR: Included last para from consecutive post

[Silversheep2011]

Question: Firefly uses an all-carbon fiber design. Based on the reasoning that the design makes the structural mass supremely light. However how does it compare to conventional aluminum-lithium alloys in mechanical performance?
 In particular, I was wondering about the cryogenic temperature ranges and fracture toughness and if this is adversely affected. And if a simple lightweight  insulation system is  need/required. Where as I recall the aluminum alloys actually tend to increase in strength as they get to this lower temperature state, and carbon fiber tends to become more brittle.

[Coastal Ron]

Also, rather take somebody whose actual work made it into orbit (or at least flight)  than somebody who has flailed around working at multiple nuspace companies.

Might that be an "OldSpace" background talking...   

I'm sure, for all the engineering students that may be reading this, that you're not implying that trying to do something different is bad for your career, so don't even attempt it?

[Silversheep2011]

Follow up question: what do these 3 components represent on the truncated Aero spike center.
1. looks like a cylindrical center piece, function unknown?
2. looks like a heating transfer grid of come sort? - or is a flame arrest?
3. looks like an internal nozzle, again function unknown?

[Burninate]

Could we be looking at some sort of air-augmented rocket?

Edit: Reading farther back in the thread... yes... yes we are:

This tweet suggests that it is a ramjet: https://twitter.com/Firefly_Space/status/421130849845661696

Thanx for all the follows. We're thrilled to have you paying attention as our endeavor kicks off. #aerospike #ramjet #LEO #SSO

[Silversheep2011]

Could we be looking at some sort of air-augmented rocket?

Edit: Reading farther back in the thread... yes... yes we are:

This tweet suggests that it is a ramjet: https://twitter.com/Firefly_Space/status/421130849845661696



You would think so.......

However look at the changes over 6 months between the two renderings where are inlets placed on latest picture from their web site?

Edit note: reply removed from inside quote marks

[meekGee]

Sure, but your choices are not limited to "newspace" and "oldspace"...

If your tech leadership is in place, there are plenty places to get recruits from.  Also, young ones in oldSpace companies may not be broken yet.  They've seen a few useful things, and some may be frustrated at how these companies are led.

It takes time to ruin a soul...

Who says anybody from oldspace is "broken" or "ruined"?   I have seen more "broken" or "ruined" people from nuspace.

I've seen both, and if you read above, I was absolutely not advocating nuspace space cadets - I was saying that I didn't like FireFly hiring from BO, VG, and ex-SpaceX.

That said, I interviewed folks from a nearby old-space company a few years back, and they suffered from the same thing you see in other large companies.  Their ways were wrong, and they could not even see it.  They knew what they knew, to the letter, and had absolutely no desire to question why or how.  They were looking to be shown the next book of procedures and to learn how to follow them.   Not good either.

Hiring for a start-up is very difficult.

[HMXHMX]

Follow up question: what do these 3 components represent on the truncated Aero spike center.
1. looks like a cylindrical center piece, function unknown?
2. looks like a heating transfer grid of come sort? - or is a flame arrest?
3. looks like an internal nozzle, again function unknown?

One fairly difficult issue for all plugs/aerospikes to implement is TVC.  Feature 1 might be a center engine which is gimbaled, allowing the plug engines to be fixed.  Since the vehicle doesn't need a gas generator for turbopumps. it would serve the added function of base bleed to reduce drag and ensure the wake closes.  The Feature 2 "structure" might also be a flexible thermal boot.